NBA Finals. Betting Info

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Fact or Fiction
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

For the second straight season, the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat are set to square off in the NBA Finals. We'll go through what is the truth about this series and what is complete bunk about these two teams with the series starting Thursday night in San Antonio.

FACT

Home court advantage will make all the difference: It's what made the difference last season when these two teams played, so why not now? The Spurs have a ridiculous points per 100 possessions of 122.4 over the course of their last eight games played here at the AT&T Center, and they have scored at least 104 points in all of those games. San Antonio is legitimately perhaps the most dangerous team in basketball when playing in its own arena, and short of the first couple games against the Dallas Mavericks, there isn't a team which has really shown the spunk to be able to go out and win in the Lone Star State against the men in black and silver.

Tony Parker's injury is going to be a difference maker: We're going to talk about the depth of the Spurs in just a second, but here's the one place where we are sure that the Heat can take a massive edge. Mario Chalmers, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade have averaged 4.2 steals per game in these playoffs, and they are three of the best in the league at stepping in front of passes and taking them the other way for easy transition buckets. If the Spurs are really going to be missing Parker, even if it's just for a few extra minutes on a nightly basis in this series, Miami should be able to take advantage, as Manu Ginobili, Cory Joseph, and Patty Mills just don't make up a great distributing point guard trio beyond Parker.

FICTION

The Heat are fine without Mike Miller: When you really look at these two teams, part of the reason why they are here once again is because they have basically the same rosters that they did a year ago. However, the Spurs have added an assassin from long range in Marco Belinelli, while Miami has lost one of its top guns in Miller. Just go back to that three-point play for the Heat in Game 6. Part of the reason why Ray Allen had the opportunity for a respectable look from downtown is because Tim Duncan wasn't on the court. He really didn't have anyone to guard with Miller out there as well at the de facto power forward position with James at the center spot. Now with Miller gone to Memphis, who is Miami going to put out there in that spot? Norris Cole? It's not nearly going to be good enough if this series plays out exactly as it did last season.

Age has caught up to the Spurs: Though we do believe that this is the end of the road for 37-year old Tim Duncan, we definitely challenge the thought that this team is too old to be effective. Sure, the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili troika has 103 years on this earth between them, but when you look up and down the lineup aside from that, there isn't much in the way of 30-somethings. Head Coach Gregg Popovich has done a fantastic job of limiting the minutes which all of his vets have played this year, and that has kept them fresh for this run in the playoffs. Meanwhile, there really is nothing but 30-somethings on the Heat right now (ok, James and Bosh are both 29), and that really shows that the window of opportunity is closing on this team without making another splash in free agency. If depth wins this series (and we think that it will), the Spurs are going to be the Larry O'Brien Trophy holders in another two weeks.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

Fearless Prediction
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat

Tony Parker's health will be the major variable over the next few weeks. If he's able to be his normal self, the Spurs have the firepower to reverse the 2013 Finals result. Seconds away from a six-game series win, a missed defensive rebound led to Ray Allen's heroic 3-pointer that forced OT and eventually, broke San Antonio's collective heart. That pain has been the driving force behind repeating as Western Conference champs, securing homecourt that should serve them well as the Finals return to a 2-2-1-1-1 format for the first time since 1984. The first two games work out beautifully for the Spurs since they begin on home soil and feature a 2-day break in between. If Parker can get loose enough to help San Antonio take advantage, it could capitalize on the Miami requiring an adjustment period against the best offensive team its seen in months. Kawhi Leonard will need to make LeBron James work for everything he gets, getting help from Danny Green and everyone else Gregg Popovich throws at him. It won't be easy, but Tim Duncan looks focused and prepared to right last year's wrong by exploiting the Heat's lack of size inside to collect a fifth championship.

Prediction: Spurs win 4-3

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

MIAMI vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Antonio's last 16 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs
Miami: MIAMI 11-3 OVER as a # 2 seed in the playoffs
San Antonio: 15-7 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

Game 1 - Heat at Spurs
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

For the second straight season, the Spurs and Heat will fight it out for the NBA championship as Miami seeks a third consecutive title. San Antonio hasn’t hoisted the Larry O’Brien trophy since 2007, while trying to erase the memory of blowing a five-point lead in the final 25 seconds of the potential close-out Game 6 of last June’s Finals. This time around, the Spurs own home-court advantage, which they have used to their benefit this postseason.

Since losing to Dallas in Game 2 of the first round, San Antonio has won each of its last eight games played at the AT&T Center, while covering seven straight with each of those victories coming by double-digits. In the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs finished off the Thunder in six games, capped off by an overtime triumph in Saturday’s 112-107 win as 3½-point underdogs. In the three home victories over Oklahoma City, the Spurs averaged 117 points per game, but San Antonio has cashed the ‘under’ in six of the past eight games overall.

The Heat will start their second straight series on the road after eliminating the rival Pacers in six games of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami dropped the opener at Indiana, the third time since the arrival of LeBron James and Chris Bosh in 2010 that the Heat has lost Game 1 of a playoff series on the road. However, the Heat came back and won each of those series, including the 2012 NBA Finals against Oklahoma City after losing Game 1 by 11 points.

Miami owns a 4-3 SU/ATS record on the road during the playoffs, while being listed as an underdog for the second time in the postseason. Since the Big Three of James, Bosh, and Dwyane Wade joined forces, the Heat has stumbled to a 4-7-1 ATS record in the playoffs when receiving points, including a 113-77 defeat at San Antonio in Game 3 last summer.

This is the fifth NBA Finals appearance for the Heat since 2006, as the team that has won the opener has not won the series. Last June, San Antonio rallied past Miami to steal Game 1 at the American Airlines Arena, 92-88 as five-point underdogs. Since the start of the 2012 playoffs, the Spurs have won 10 straight series openers, while putting together a 6-3 ATS record at home in this span.

One of the keys to this series is the health of Spurs’ point guard Tony Parker, who is battling an ankle injury but is expected to start Game 1. But the other factor to monitor during this series is which role players will step up for each team. Last season, San Antonio’s Danny Green drilled an NBA Finals record 27 three-pointers in the seven-game series, but hit only two treys in the final two contests. Ray Allen’s game-tying three-pointer in the final seconds of Game 6 saved Miami’s season, but the future Hall-of-Famer was held scoreless in the decisive seventh game.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David believes backing the Spurs is the right way to go in the opener, “While it may seem too easy, it’s hard to argue against the Spurs in Game 1, at least on the money-line. San Antonio rarely loses at home in the playoffs, especially in openers. If you look at the past four finals openers, the Spurs have gone 4-0 and they won those games by 9, 14, 12 and 12 points. Plus, history is on the side of the home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.” The winner of Game 1 in the Finals has an excellent shot of going all the way, winning the title 70% of the time (47 of 67 champions won the series opener in history).

From a totals perspective, David wonders why this total is so low, “I was a little surprised to see the total for Game 1 listed under 200 points. The Spurs have the ability to light up the scoreboard any given night and Miami has been a clear-cut ‘over’ team in the playoffs. Plus, during the two regular season matchups, the Heat and Spurs saw totals of 205 and 206 points. I’m assuming the oddsmakers are looking at what’s transpired this season and also applied last year’s meetings in the finals. In that series, the total was as low as 186 and as high as 192.” Currently, the total is set at 198½ for the opener.

The home team won each of the two meetings this season, as the Heat dominated the Spurs in South Florida, 113-101 on January 26 to cash as 3½-point favorites. The final score was not indicative of how the game played out, as Miami built a 29-point lead in the second half before calling off the dogs, while shooting a scorching 58% from the floor. San Antonio exacted revenge in the following meeting in early March down in Texas, 111-87. The Spurs jumped out to a 15-point advantage after one quarter, while limiting Miami to just 13 points in the final quarter. San Antonio covered as 3½-point favorites, as the Spurs’ defense stepped up by limiting the Heat to just 43% shooting from the floor.

The Spurs are currently four-point favorites across the board, while sitting at -130 favorites to win the series. Game 1 tips off on Thursday night at 9:00 P.M. EST from the AT&T Center and can be seen on ABC.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

Game of the Day: Heat at Spurs
By Covers.com

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-4.5, 198.5)

The San Antonio Spurs wish to atone for last season’s collapse against the Miami Heat when the highly anticipated rematch in the NBA Finals begins on Thursday in San Antonio. The Spurs led by five with 28.2 seconds to go in Game 6 of last year’s finals before the Heat rallied to win and then claimed the title with a Game 7 victory. Miami is vying to become the first team to win three straight titles since the Los Angeles Lakers (2000-02).

The finals rematch is the first since the Chicago Bulls defeated the Utah Jazz in back-to-back years in 1997-98. San Antonio defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder in six games in the Western Conference finals while the Heat won the Eastern Conference crown by dispatching of the Indiana Pacers in six games. Spurs point guard Tony Parker is expected to play in the opener despite further injuring an ankle in the series finale against Oklahoma City on Saturday. The Heat are in the finals for the fourth straight season since LeBron James opted to take his talents to South Beach.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Spurs as 3.5-point home faves for Game 1. The total opened 198.5.

INJURY REPORT: Spurs - PG Tony Parker (Probable, ankle).

WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "Despite all of the craziness that happened in the Playoffs, we are down to the same two teams in the Finals that squared off a year ago. The big question mark for the Spurs is the health of guard Tony Parker, who sprained his ankle in the series vs. the Thunder. Parker is crucial to the Spurs plans and if he's slowed down, that could spell trouble for San Antonio. Conversely, the Heat's Dwayne Wade has been used sparingly to this point, Miami could very well have an early advantage in this series." Covers Expert Nick Parsons

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "The matchup the Spurs have wanted since they lost the 2013 Finals to the Heat last June. This time around, the Spurs have home-court advantage and are -127 favorites to win. We opened Game 1 with the Spurs -3.5 favorites and quickly moved them to -4, since that move we have seen good two-way action with 63 percent of the action on the Spurs to cover the spread." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT THE HEAT: The possibility looms that James will opt for free agency on July 1 and he continues to dodge the topic of whether or not he will stick with Miami. The standout forward is averaging 27.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and five assists in the postseason as the Heat went 12-3 over the first three rounds. What isn’t up for debate is that James badly wants to win another title as he certainly took notice of the comments from Tim Duncan, who insisted San Antonio will win this time around. “They’ve been preparing for this moment – we have as well,” James told reporters. “No one is entitled. This is no one’s championship. It isn’t ours, it isn’t theirs. It’s two teams fighting for it.”

ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker told a French radio station on Tuesday that he will play in the opener despite the injury that caused him to miss the second half of the finale against the Thunder. Parker suffered the injury in Game 4 of the first-round series against the Dallas Mavericks and tweaked it again in Game 4 of the series against the Thunder before the pain sidelined him. “I gritted my teeth,” Parker told RMC Sport in France. “I did not mean to abandon my teammates. But the pain was too strong in the sixth game. I could not really play anymore.” Parker is averaging 17.2 points and 4.9 assists in the postseason.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 4-1 in Spurs last five overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of Covers Consensus wagers are on the Spurs.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

Game 2 - Heat at Spurs
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Game 2 of the NBA Finals takes place Sunday from San Antonio as the Spurs will look to take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series.

On Thursday, San Antonio pulled away from Miami in the final minutes of Game 1 and captured a 110-95 victory at home in an outcome many believe was changed due to an arena malfunction. An electrical failure for the power that runs the AC system in the AT&T Center occurred, which created temperatures in the nineties inside the building.

Miami’s LeBron James suffered the most from the situation and was unable to play in the final 3:59 of the game because of cramps. After making a layup and cutting the Spurs’ lead to two points (92-94), LeBron had to be helped off the court. Sure enough, San Antonio quickly took advantage of his absence and closed the game with a 16-3 run, 12 of the points coming from 3-point land.

While some conspiracy theorists believe the AC malfunction was deliberate, it should be noted that James has had a history of cramps in his career, including Game 4 of the 2012 NBA Finals against Oklahoma City and Game 3 of this season's Eastern Conference finals against Indiana.

What we do know is that LeBron will return Sunday and be ready to go. ''I'll be in uniform on Sunday,'' James said Friday. ''I should be 100 percent on Sunday.”

Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag opened San Antonio as a four-point favorite for Game 2 and the number has jumped to 4½ at the offshore outfit.

Prior to LeBron running out of the gas, Miami outscored San Antonio 29-20 in the third quarter of Game 1 and led by as many as seven points in the fourth quarter. LeBron finished with 25 points in 33 minutes while Dwyane Wade (19) and Chris Bosh (17) chipped in for 36 points.

Even though Ray Allen added a big 16 points off the bench, the backcourt duo of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole only combined for five points. Chalmers is often overlooked on this squad but the Heat need him to play well and his production is a key component to their success. In last year’s finals, the former Kansas standout averaged 14.8 points per game in the four wins and just 5 PPG in the losses. In Game 1, Chalmers was called for five fouls and finished with three points in 17 minutes.

The loss of LeBron at the end of Game 1 was evident but San Antonio backers can argue that its team didn’t even bring it’s “A” game and they still won by 15 points. The Spurs turned the ball over 22 times, which was well above their season average (14.1). Also, you can’t ignore the fact that small forward Kawhi Leonard was missing for the first 42 minutes of the game and even though he hit a pair of 3-pointers late, the game was already decided at that point.

So how did they win by 15? It’s simple, the NBA is a “make-or-miss” league and when San Antonio wins, it’s all about the offense, which was the case in Game 1. The Spurs shot 58.8 percent (40-of-68) from the field, which includes 13-of-25 (52%) from 3-point land.

Most of the damage came in the final 12 minutes as the Spurs shot 14-of-16 from the floor, outscoring the Heat by 19 points (36-17). During this run, San Antonio was 6-of-6 from downtown and according to the analytics, five of those shots were uncontested.

The Spurs won the battle in the paint as well, outscoring the Heat 48-36 and they grabbed more rebounds (39-29) as well. Tim Duncan led the Spurs with 21 points and 10 rebounds.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers wasn’t surprised by the outcome of Game 1, rather the finish.

He said, “The Spurs did extend their remarkable streak to eight consecutive home wins by at least 15 points, but that number was benefited by San Antonio going on an 11-0 run in the final two minutes of a four-point contest in Game 1. The Heat missed plenty of open 3-pointers in the opener, while not being able to close out a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter.”

Miami made 12-of-29 (41.4%) 3-pointers in Game 1 and while the percentage wasn’t poor by any means, but you could argue that they took too many attempts from the outside. The Heat thrive on getting to the free throw line and they were just 9-of-11 (81.8%) on Thursday, which is less than half of their season average (23).

As Rogers mentioned, San Antonio has been a great team to bet at home in the playoffs. Overall the Spurs are 10-1 (8-3) in this year’s postseason, the lone loss coming in Game 2 of the first round to the Mavericks (92-113).

Miami has gone 4-4 both SU and ATS on the road in the postseason and the point-spread hasn’t mattered. If you like the Heat in Game 2, a money-line play would be justified based on these trends.

Rogers points out another solid trend that could have you backing Miami on Sunday. He explained, “During the Big Three era in Miami, the Heat has never trailed a playoff series, 2-0. In the past five opportunities after losing the series opener, the Heat has won and covered, including the last round against the Pacers. It’s hard to ignore Miami’s 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS record the last 12 playoff games off a loss, with the lone ATS defeat coming in the epic comeback against San Antonio in last summer’s Game 6 of the NBA Finals.”

Bettors believing the Heat will even up the series and eventually win should take a look at the adjusted series price. Sportsbook.ag has Miami as a 9/5 (Bet $100 to win $180) underdog, while the Spurs are 1/2 favorites (Bet $100 to win $50).

Make a note that Miami lost Game 1 of the NBA Finals the past two years to the Thunder and Spurs and still came back to win the best-of-seven matchups. Ironically, they beat Dallas in Game 1 of the 2010-11 NBA Finals and lost the series in six games.

Despite the hot shooting from 3-point land by both clubs in Game 1, oddsmakers didn’t tweak the ‘over/under’ for Game 2. The total is hovering between 198 and 199 points.

Including Game 1, six of the last 10 meetings between the pair have gone ‘over’ the number. In this year’s playoffs, Miami has been a great ‘over’ bet (12-4) and San Antonio has leaned to the high side as well (11-8).

If you like San Antonio to win and cover in Game 2 and you’re looking to back an in-game parlay, the ‘over’ would likely be your second-leg. In its last 10 wins/covers in the playoffs, the Spurs-Over combination has connected at a 70 percent (7-3) clip.

Game 2 tips at 9:05 p.m. ET and ABC will be providing national coverage.

The series heads to South Florida for Game 3 on Tuesday and Game 4 on Thursday.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

NBA Playoffs

Miami was -15 in 15:07 that Lebron James sat out in Game 1, including last 3:59 when he cramped up. Air conditioning is supposed to be fixed for this game. Heat is 4-4 on road in playoffs, 0-2 when getting points; they're 1-3 in last four visits here. Home team won 12 of last 15 series games. Eight of last ten Miami games went over total; six of last nine San Antonio games stayed under. Spurs won last nine home games, are 10-1 at home in playoffs, covering last eight home games. San Antonio made 14-16 from floor, 6-6 from arc in decisive 4th quarter- thats an eFG% of 106.3%, which is exceptionally good.

Over is 49-36 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 35-50 in playoffs this season, 11-2 in last 13 games.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

Game of the Day: Heat at Spurs
By Covers.com

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-4.5, 198.5)

Spurs lead series 1-0

The air-conditioning system in San Antonio has been fixed and LeBron James attempts to move past a dreadful fourth-quarter experience as the Miami Heat seek to bounce back from a Game 1 loss when they visit the Spurs in Sunday’s Game 2 of the NBA Finals. James experienced severe cramping and dehydration issues and missed most of the final 7 1/2 minutes as temperatures soared above 90 degrees due to an electrical malfunction at AT&T Center. San Antonio closed with a 31-9 spurt for a convincing 110-95 victory.

James was affected much more than any other player in Thursday’s oven-like conditions and told reporters on Friday that he received 2 1/2 bags of intravenous fluids afterward. “For obvious reasons, I was angry, I was disappointed in myself,” James said. “I did everything that I needed to do to prepare for this game, prepare for this moment and to feel like my body failed me, I was angry in the fact that I couldn’t help my team get over the hump.” James departed with 3:59 remaining after he scored a basket to pull the Heat within 94-92 and the Spurs went on a game-ending 16-3 surge after he departed.

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened at -4 and quickly moved to -4.5. The total opened at 199.5 and has been bet down to 198.5.

INJURY REPORT: Miami: LeBron James is listed as probable after suffering leg cramps in Game 1. San Antonio: N/A.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "There is no question that the loss of LeBron James in the fourth quarter due to leg cramps made a huge difference in Game 1. The Heat were winning when James first left with 7:37 remaining in the fourth quarter, and the Heat were trailing by only 2 points when James left the game for good at the 4:00 mark. San Antonio shot an incredible 87.5% from the field as a team in the fourth quarter. Miami obviously missed LeBron James' defensive presence, but it also appears the Heat loss focus as a team defensively without their superstar on the court." - Covers Experts' Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "People think the Heat will bounce back with 54 percent of money and 57 percent of bets are on Miami at +4.5, while on the moneyline, 77 percent of the cash and 73 percent of bets on are on the Heat +155." - Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James scored 25 points in 33 minutes before exiting, and he first became concerned about the conditions in the first half. He loaded up on fluids at halftime but his body was unable to hold up and he was in the game for only 34 seconds over the final 7:31 before heading to the locker room prior to the end of the contest. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters the Spurs should be fined if the situation happens again. “We’re not making any excuses for it,” Spoelstra said. “It was an extreme, unfortunate situation for both teams. It probably won’t happen again, ever.”

ABOUT THE SPURS: While James couldn’t hold up in the heat, San Antonio veteran Tim Duncan thrived with 21 points on 9-of-10 shooting to go with 10 rebounds. The 38-year-old power forward played 33 minutes and operated at will in the interior. “Every once in a while, I get a jump shot from 15 to 18 feet, but mostly my effective range is in there right now,” Duncan said during Friday’s media availability. “I’m going to pick-and-roll and try to get open shots and try to take advantage of the rotation if they’re trapping.” Duncan shot 49 percent against Miami in the 2013 Finals while averaging 18.9 points and 12.1 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Antonio.
* Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in San Antonio.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-two percent of the wagers are on the Heat +4.5.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

StatSystemsSports.net
Inside the Paint- Tuesday

A lot was made of the Miami Heat's playoff record with the Big Three in the lineup after losing Game #1 in a series, but that's just a small part of a much larger trend. The Heat have now gone 47 consecutive postseason games without back-to-back losses. Currently the Heat are third all-time behind the 1962-66 Boston Celtics (54) and the 1990-93 Chicago Bulls (52). There is a chance that the Heat could tie the all-time record in these Finals.

NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
The San Antonio Spurs not only lost Game #2 on the court, they also lost it for bettors. This loss at the betting window is a rare sight, that snaps a stunning ATS streak by the club. Before Sunday, the Spurs had covered eight straight games at home in the AT&T Center. Since dropping three-straight ATS decisions at home to the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, The Spurs swept the Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder for bettors at home. The Spurs enter Game #3 in Miami with a mediocre 2-6 ATS record on the road during the postseason.

Despite the Spurs dropping Game #2 Sunday, Tim Duncan still matched an National Basketball Association record. The 6-foot 11-inch power forward recorded a playoff double-double for the 157 game in his career. It took Duncan 231 postseason games to reach the mark, which means he has notched a double-double in 68 percent of his playoff contests. Duncan's performance Sunday ties him with Magic Johnson in the all-time history books.

Hoop Trends - Tuesday
•SAN ANTONIO is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 107.6, OPPONENT 93.4.

•SAN ANTONIO is 19-7 OVER (+11.3 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 109.5, OPPONENT 100.2.

•MIAMI is 54-74 (-27.4 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 50.8, OPPONENT 48.3.

•SAN ANTONIO is 25-7 UNDER (+17.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 47.9, OPPONENT 47.7.

•ERIK SPOELSTRA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games as a # 2 seed in the playoffs as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was SPOELSTRA 99.6, OPPONENT 89.4.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Favorites versus the money line (MIAMI) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games.
(102-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.1%, +47.9 units. Rating = 2*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -200.6
The average score in these games was: Team 102.8, Opponent 96.1 (Average point differential = +6.7)

The situation's record this season is: (26-9, +7.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (72-18, +36.7 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (336-150, -30.1 units).

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 6/10/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 6/10/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Finals Betting News & Notes
NBA commissioner Adam Silver, who succeeded David Stern on Feb. 1, said Sunday night that the breakdown of the air conditioning during Game #1 “is certainly not one of my prouder moments of my short tenure” and “wasn’t handled perfectly.” Silver said that a few minutes before Game #1, the league was told that one of the main circuits that controls the water pump had broken.

At&T Center officials told the league they tried to reset it several times and determined late in the second quarter that they could not fix the circuit breaker. But the Heat was not informed of the problem until during the second quarter. “There always are going to be human and mechanical errors and it’s unfortunate,” Silver said. Silver said he wasn’t concerned about the possibility this series might be remembered for the malfunction. “I’m glad this isn’t single elimination,” he said.

Silver Addressed Other Issues:
Asked whether the breakup of the Heat or Thunder would be considered a success for the league under a labor deal designed to create competitive balance, Silver said: “I don’t know if I would necessarily call it a success. Our goal was not to break up teams. But ultimately, any type of cap system in essence is a form of player sharing. “So to the extent that James Harden leaves Oklahoma City and the Houston Rockets then become a competitive team, that’s a positive thing for the league. Part of the purpose of a cap system is so you don’t see too much talent aggregated in one market.”

Silver said the sale of the Clippers from Donald Sterling to Steve Ballmer for $2 billion will be voted on by mid-July or earlier, and the only holdup is Sterling’s lawsuit against the league and Silver. Sterling has said he will drop the suit, but Silver said it hasn’t happened yet. “I have absolute confidence it will be resolved because as part of the sale agreement with Shelly Sterling, she agreed to indemnify the league against a lawsuit by her husband,” Silver said. “So in essence, Donald is suing himself and he knows that. While I understand he is frustrated, I think it’s over.”
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National Basketball Association Finals

#705 SAN ANTONIO @ #706 MIAMI
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Heat -4.5, Total: 198.5) - LeBron James avoided cramping issues in Game #2 and he looks to help Miami take the series lead when the Heat host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night in Game #3 of the National Basketball Association Finals. James received plenty of criticism for the Game #1 situation in which he missed most of the final 7 1/2 minutes but his legs held up fine on Sunday as Miami evened the series. James had 35 points and 10 rebounds in Game #2.

San Antonio played a lackluster fourth quarter in Sunday’s 98-96 loss and a tipping point was when point guard Tony Parker and power forward Tim Duncan each missed two free throws in a nine-second span with the Spurs leading by two points midway through the stanza. James scored the next five points and San Antonio held the lead just once the remainder of the contest. Chris Bosh hit the go-ahead 3-pointer with 1:17 left and James finished 14-of-22 shooting in a strong bounce-back performance. “Look, he’s the best player in the game,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters afterward. “He has an incredible way to put his fingerprints on a game.”

•ABOUT THE SPURS (75-27 SU, 55-47-0 ATS): San Antonio closed Game #1 with an impressive 31-9 burst but lacked a finishing kick in Game #2 when it went 6-of-17 shooting in the final quarter. Coach Gregg Popovich noticed issues well before the final 12 minutes and was greatly disappointed with the club’s approach. “We can’t put it in somebody’s hands and have them create everything for us,” Popovich said in his postgame media session. “It’s got to be a group effort and we didn’t do that. That puts a lot of pressure on everything else. It means we’re going to have to be perfect on defense, we can’t miss four free throws in a row, those sort of things.”

•ABOUT THE HEAT (67-32 SU, 48-49-2 ATS): Bosh scored 18 points in Game #2 as he was assertive in making sure he got his touches. He not only drained the decisive shot but also threaded a pinpoint pass to guard Dwyane Wade for a layup with 9.4 seconds to give the Heat an insurmountable five-point lead. James was most impressed with some dunks Bosh threw down while being ecstatic about his teammate’s solid all-around game. “He had two dunks that we haven’t seen in a long time, man,” James told reporters. “When he has that mindset, he just mixes it up. He’s the forgotten guy on our team. Shouldn’t be. Obviously, without his aggressiveness, we don’t win.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Duncan has two double-doubles in the series to raise his career postseason count to 157 and tie former Los Angeles Lakers star Magic Johnson for most in NBA playoff history.... Miami F Rashard Lewis has scored in double digits in both games in the series and is 14-of-29 from 3-point range over the last four contests.... San Antonio F Kawhi Leonard fouled out of Game #2 and is averaging just nine points and two rebounds in the series.... The Heat are 55-37 versus the spread (59.7%) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Spurs are 68-40 against the spread (62.9%) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game, including 44-24 ATS (64.7%) 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 574 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 426 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 530 times, while SAN ANTONIO won 451 times. In 1000 simulated games, 563 games went under the total, while 437 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 551 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 449 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went under first half total, while 432 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 22-19 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 24-18 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--29 of 41 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 21-16 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--24 of 40 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Under is 25-11 in the last 36 meetings.
--Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Miami.

--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.

--Heat are 5-0 ATS L5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat L4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Any team (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 Reb/G) - 42+ games.
(41-22 since 1996.) (65.1%, +16.8 units. Rating = 1*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (51-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 8.7
The average score in these games was: Team 110.1, Opponent 99.1 (Average point differential = +11)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (39.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-10).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-15).

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Trends


San Antonio Spurs
44-25 ATS in non-conference games
13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite
14-4 ATS off a home loss
28-16 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread


Miami Heat
40-26 ATS after a non-conference game
12-4 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days
15-5 ATS at home as a # 2 seed in the playoffs
8-18 ATS in home games off a road win
14-26 ATS at home coming off a road game


NBA Finals Game 3 Over/Under Trends


San Antonio Spurs - Over
56-46 OVER in all games this season
28-15 OVER in road games in non-conference games
19-7 OVER after back to back home games
28-18 OVER coming off an ATS loss


Miami Heat - Over
55-43 OVER in all games
29-20 OVER in all home games
51-37 OVER as a favorite
29-20 OVER as a home favorite
12-4 OVER as a #2 seed in the playoffs
16-5 OVER at home after a close win by 6 points or less


San Antonio Spurs - Under
63-41 UNDER after a close loss by 3 points or less
90-59 UNDER revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite


Miami Heat - Under
4-0 Under after back to back games as an underdog

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 6/12/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 6/12/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (June 10)
The AC was working just fine in San Antonio for Game #2 and after a quiet first quarter, so was LeBron James. James scored 11 points in the second quarter to help the Heat overcome an 11-point deficit, sending the game to the half tied at 43-all (cashing a fifth consecutive Huge *5-Star ticket for our Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor, running Taylor overall record to 14-4-1, 77.7 percent in the playoffs). The Spurs won a high scoring third quarter (35-34) and while the game was nip-and-tuck the entire fourth quarter, San Antonio played a lackluster final stanza.

San Antonio led 87-85 with about 6 1/2 minutes to go and a "tipping point" just may have occurred when Tony Parker and Tim Duncan each missed two free throws in a nine-second span! The Spurs held the lead just once the remainder of the contest. Chris Bosh hit the go-ahead three-pointer with 1:17 left and James finished 14-of-22 shooting in a strong bounce-back performance, scoring 35 points and adding 10 rebounds.

“Look, he’s the best player in the game,” Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters afterward. “He has an incredible way to put his fingerprints on a game.” The Heat shot 52.9 percent as a team and defensively, slowed the Spurs, who had connected on 58.8 percent in Game #1, including making 13 of 25 three-pointers. The Spurs did make 12, three-pointers Sunday night (on 26 attempts) but made just 43.9 percent from the floor, as well as missing EIGHT of 22 FTs. The home court advantage now belongs to the Heat but no one in the Heat's locker room thinks it's going to get easy now.

"You never put them away," Wade said. "I think they always believe and it's the same with us. You can't, you won't, put us away because we're always going to believe. That's why this is a perfect, different animal, kind of series. They're the other team like us. They don't lose much and when they do they come back and be better in the next game. So we've got to come out and do the same thing."

Last year's Finals went a full seven games and many feel as if this year's is headed for a similar fate. If so, that means the Spurs will almost have to win tonight or Thursday for this series to have any chance of going the full seven games. Winning in South Beach will not come easily, as the Heat have won a franchise-record 11 straight postseason games.

Not winning either Game #3 or #4 would leave San Antonio down 3-1 and I doubt anyone thinks that the San antonio (or any team) is capable of beating the Heat three in a row, After all, with Miami's Game #2 win (after its Game #1 loss), the Heat have now won 13 straight (12-1 ATS) following a postseason loss. In that same vein, the Heat have played 46 consecutive playoff games since they last lost back-to-back contests.

Tip-off Tuesday evening is at 9:00 ET on ABC with Miami favored by 4 1/2 points (total is 197 1/2). Home teams have done well in the conference and NBA finals, going 11-3 SU and ATS. However, after going just 38-34 SU and 27-43-3 ATS in the first two rounds, home teams sit 49-37 SU (.570) for the entire 2014 postseason, as well as just 38-45-3 ATS (44.2% or minus-11.5 net games). Over players have done very well this postseason, cashing 49 of 86 games or 57.0 percent. "Zig-Zaggers" seem to be on target to earn a profit this postseason, as they'll be on the Spurs Tuesday and sit 38-30-3 ATS so far (plus-5.0 net games).
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National Basketball Association Finals

#707 SAN ANTONIO @ #708 MIAMI
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Heat -5, Total: 197.5) - The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an epic performance and look to claim a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals when they visit the Miami Heat on Thursday evening. San Antonio set an NBA Finals record by shooting 75.8 percent from the field in the first half and led by as many as 25 points while rolling to a 111-92 victory in Tuesday’s Game #3. Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard broke out of his funk by scoring a career-best 29 points.

Miami forward LeBron James had 22 points but 14 of them came in the first quarter before Leonard clamped down on him on the defensive end. Leonard scored 16 points on 5-of-5 shooting in the opening period as San Antonio scored 41 points and had 71 at the half against the shell-shocked Heat. “One thing about (the Spurs), if you make a mistake, they’re going to make you pay,” James said afterward. “And they made us pay more often than not.” Game #4 is doubly important to the Heat with the NBA switching from a 2-3-2 series format to a 2-2-1-1-1 as a second straight Spurs victory in Miami would put San Antonio in position to clinch the series at home in Sunday’s Game #5.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (76-27 SU, 56-47-0 ATS): Leonard was a huge disappointment while averaging just nine points and two rebounds over the first two games before erupting for the best performance of his three-year career. He made 10-of-13 field-goal attempts and also frustrated James over the final three quarters. Leonard set the tone for the Spurs with the strong first quarter showing as he cast aside the tentativeness he displayed over the first two games. “I just was in attack mode,” Leonard told reporters afterward. “Trying to be aggressive early. Just knocking down a couple of shots got me going. My teammates found me. They did a good job of getting me involved.”

•ABOUT THE HEAT (67-33 SU, 48-50-2 ATS): Starting point guard Mario Chalmers has been a complete non-factor in the series and missed all five of his field-goal attempts while scoring just two points in Game #3. Chalmers is averaging just 3.3 points on 3-of-12 shooting and has the same number of turnovers as assists (nine apiece) as Miami is getting badly outplayed at the point-guard position. “Still at the drawing board,” Chalmers said after Game #3 in response to questions about his poor play. “Everybody else is doing their job, and it’s me that’s not helping the team right now. And I don’t want to be that guy. I don’t know what it is right now but I have to figure it out.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Miami committed 20 turnovers in Game #3 – James made seven of the miscues – while G Danny Green had five of San Antonio’s 12 steals.... San Antonio shot 59.1 percent from the field in its two victories with an average winning margin of 17 points.... The Heat have won 13 consecutive playoff games following a loss.... The Spurs are 39-23 against the spread (62.9%) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game, including 25-13 ATS (65.7%) 2nd half of the season this season.... The Heat are 4-12 versus the spread (25.0%) in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 562 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 398 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 536 times, while SAN ANTONIO won 439 times. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went over the total, while 466 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 542 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 515 games went over first half total, while 485 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 23-19 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 25-18 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--29 of 42 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 22-16 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--24 of 41 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Miami.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.

--Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games.
--Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat L4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Any team (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 Reb/G) - 42+ games.
(42-22 since 1996.) (65.6%, +17.8 units. Rating = 1*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (52-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 8.5
The average score in these games was: Team 110.1, Opponent 99 (Average point differential = +11.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 26 (40% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-10).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-15).

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Finals. Betting Info

Game 5 - Heat at Spurs
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

San Antonio’s road to redemption is nearly complete as the Spurs are one victory from claiming the fifth title in franchise history. Following a pair of wins in South Florida where the Spurs shot lights out, the defending Western Conference champions return to the AT&T Center on Sunday night to host a Heat squad that may be nearing the end of their dynasty.

With the NBA Finals tied at 1-1, the Spurs connected on 75% of its shots from the floor in the first half of Game 3 and built a 25-point lead en route to a 111-92 triumph over the Heat as four-point underdogs. The Spurs didn’t skip a beat in Thursday’s Game 4, jumping out to a 55-36 halftime advantage as San Antonio rolled to a 107-86 victory to cash as five-point ‘dogs. Gregg Popovich’s team improved to 12-4 ATS the last 16 games in the postseason, including three straight wins and covers on the highway.

It seemed impossible for the Spurs to repeat their shooting effort from Game 3, but San Antonio wasn’t too far off in Game 4 by knocking down 57% of its attempts from the floor. Every game in this series San Antonio has relied on someone different to carry load, but Kawhi Leonard put up two of the best efforts in his career in Miami by scoring 29 points in Game 3 and a team-high 20 points and 14 rebounds in Game 4. Boris Diaw was inserted into the starting lineup for the first time in the series on Thursday and nearly put up a triple-double with eight points, nine rebounds, and nine assists.

The Heat’s run at a three-peat looks to be over barring a miracle comeback, as Miami isn’t receiving the balanced scoring and contributions that San Antonio is getting right now. Dwyane Wade captured Finals MVP when the Heat won their first title in 2006, but the Miami guard is coming off one of the worst playoff performances in his career by shooting just 3-of-13 from the floor for 10 points. LeBron James can carry the load only so much, putting up 19 points in the third quarter of Game 4 and scored a game-high 28 points. James is averaging 27 points per game and is probably the Most Valuable Player in this series, as the best thing for Miami is to hit the road after two poor performances at American Airlines Arena.

Miami’s 13-game winning streak in the playoffs off a loss came to a close on Thursday, but the Heat is back in the underdog role in Game 5. Erik Spoelstra’s club has won and covered just once in three tries as a ‘dog this postseason, while going 2-0 SU/ATS since 2012 when receiving points off a defeat in the playoffs (which includes a win Game 2 of this series against San Antonio).

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David says on Sunday night that Miami does have a tall mountain to climb, “Based on the first four games, especially the last two, it’s hard to make an argument for Miami in Game 5 even though the point-spread does appear to be a tad inflated. However, when San Antonio wins on the hardwood it wins at the betting counter, rather easily too. In their 15 postseason wins, the first three came by 5, 4 and 6 points to the Mavericks. In the last 12 victories, every game was decided by double digits.”

Rallying from a 3-1 deficit will be tough for the Heat, as David believes there is another approach to possibly making money with Miami, “There have been 31 teams who have trailed 3-1 in the NBA Finals and amongst them, only 15 have managed to force a Game 6 but there is a caveat for bettors. Nine of those teams were playing at home in Game 5 and now that the series is back to a 2-2-1-1-1 format, San Antonio is hosting the fifth encounter. I don’t believe the Heat are dead just yet and I feel the adjusted series price on the Heat at 9/1 odds is very generous, especially when you’re backing the best player in the world. Small risk, big reward in my opinion!”

The biggest issue with Miami so far in this series is not being able to keep up with San Antonio’s offense. David breaks down things from the totals perspective, “The ‘under’ cashed in Game 4 but one more 3-pointer by Miami at the end almost cost you. San Antonio’s hot-shooting has balanced out the slow pace by both clubs and the Heat’s offense has been, by their standards, poor. I believe the best look on Sunday will be the ‘under’ in Miami’s team total, which is hovering around 95 points. The most they scored in this series is 96 and if you believe the Heat can win, it will have to be with their defense.”

Leonard is currently the favorite to claim the MVP, as oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have made the former San Diego State standout an overwhelming 5/12 (Bet $100 to win $41) favorite to win the NBA Finals Most Valuable Player. David says this award though is up for grabs, depending on what happens on Sunday, “Leonard has been great the last two games but unless he blows up again in Game 5, I believe this award will go to Tim Duncan, who is a media favorite. Bettors can get down on a solid 8/5 (Bet $100 to win $160) price for Duncan. And if you believe the Heat can rally and win a couple more games, James at 10/1 odds looks very appealing.”

Sportsbook.ag MVP Odds
Kawhi Leonard, Spurs (5/12)
Tim Duncan, Spurs (8/5)
Tony Parker, Spurs (5/1)
LeBron James, Heat (10/1)
Boris Diaw, Spurs (20/1)
Manu Ginobili, Spurs (50/1)
Danny Green, Spurs (75/1)
Dwyane Wade, Heat (100/1)
Chris Bosh, Heat (150/1)

The Spurs are currently listed as six-point favorites on Sunday night, while the total is set at 195½. Game 5 tips off at 8:00 PM EST and can be seen on ABC.