NBA Playoffs Betting Info.4/20

[TheGame]

Sunday's NBA Playoffs Betting News and Notes
By Covers.com

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs (-9.5, 205.5)

Mavericks forwards Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion are the only remaining members of the 2011 title team but combined with the steady hand of point guard Jose Calderon and Ellis, who averaged 19 points and 5.7 assists, to coalesce into a dangerous team in the second half. Beginning Jan. 31, they went 23-12 (with two of the losses coming against San Antonio) and won 12 of their final 17 games on the road.

The Spurs, who are looking to repeat as Western Conference champions and seek their fifth NBA title under coach Gregg Popovich, won their final 15 home games of the regular season and have taken nine straight meetings with their in-state rivals. Included in that run of dominance was a 109-100 win at Dallas on April 10 that helped push the Mavericks to the undesirable eighth seed in the West.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Antonio.
* Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 4-1 in Mavericks last five Conference Quarterfinals games.


Charlotte Bobcats at Miami Heat (-9.5, 188.5)

The No. 7 seed Bobcats finished strong with a 20-9 mark after the All-Star break and have won eight of their last nine games. Nobody is forecasting Charlotte winning the series but the Bobcats could make things a bit interesting if the supporting cast steps up to help center Al Jefferson. Jefferson is the main reason why Charlotte is part of the postseason fun for the first time since 2010 as he averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds while posting 42 double-doubles.

The second-seeded Heat are 15-0 against Charlotte since LeBron James joined the squad, including a four-game sweep this season capped by James scoring a career-high 61 points on March 3. Miami wasn’t so stout down the stretch, losing its last three outings and six of its final eight. Part of that was due to resting players with the expectation that the two-time defending champions will still be playing in June for the fourth straight season.

TRENDS:

* Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 9-2 in Heat last 11 vs. NBA Southeast.


Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls (-4.5, 180.5)

Washington is appearing in the playoffs for the first time since the 2007-2008 season and could have finished as low as seventh before winning four straight to close the regular season and jumping to No. 5 in the final game. Bradley Beal scored 27 points in the 118-102 win over the Boston Celtics in the finale and put up an average of 21 in the final four games to boost his season mark to 17.1. The Wizards took two of three from the Bulls in the regular season but dropped the last meeting, 96-78 at home on April 5.

Chicago’s season was supposed to go into a tailspin when Derrick Rose was lost due to a knee injury but Joakim Noah emerged not just as the anchor to the defense but as a facilitator in the post while leading the team in assists. Noah put up 21 points and 12 rebounds in the April 5 meeting and finished the season with 11 straight double-doubles, including one of the points-assists variety, one rebounds-assists effort and one triple-double.

TRENDS:

* Under is 21-5 in the last 26 meetings.
* Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference.
* Over is 4-0 in Bulls last four Conference Quarterfinals games.


Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets (-5, 214.5)

The Trail Blazers have been eliminated in the first round in each of their last six playoff appearances but ended the season strong with five straight victories after regaining their stride once All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge (23.2 points, 11.1 rebounds) returned from a back injury. Portland improved its victory total by 21 over last season as second-year pro Damian Lillard (20.7 points) elevated into one of the NBA’s top all-around guards.

Houston averaged a league-best 9.5 3-pointers with star guard James Harden knocking down 177 while finishing fifth in the league with a 25.4 scoring average. Center Dwight Howard averaged 18.3 points and ranked fourth in the league in rebounding (12.2) while having a drama-free campaign with the Rockets. Harden averaged 30.3 points and 7.3 rebounds against Portland this season, while Aldridge checked in with 26.8 points and 15.5 rebounds against Houston.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.
* Trail Blazers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Playoffs Betting Info.4/20

Fearless Predictions
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks lost all four regular-season meetings against their Southwest Division rivals, surrendering 112.25 points in seeing their defensive deficiencies capitalized upon. Although you should never sell Dallas short due to Rick Carlisle's merit as a brilliant strategist, it's hard to imagine the Spurs losing four times to anyone this early in the postseason. Gregg Popovich has his guys rested, relatively healthy and ready to go. Prediction: Spurs win 4-2


Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls

Al Jefferson will test Miami inside, but unless Bismack Biyombo accelerates his development by two years these next few weeks, it won't be enough to keep the Heat from moving on comfortably. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can potentially be a thorn in LeBron James' side down the road, but he's still too raw to make a significant dent. Prediction: Heat win 4-1


Chicago Bulls vs. Washington Wizards

Tom Thibodeau will look to ruin John Wall's first playoff experience by attempting to make him work at every turn, so count on that battle of wills deciding what looks to be a very competitive series. It's easy to dismiss the Wizards' lack of playoff experience since they haven't been here since '08, but Marcin Gortat and Trevor Ariza have each reached the Finals as important role players. Wall, who shot 50 percent in leading the Wizards to wins in two of three regular-season meetings, has the athleticism to complicate matters and push this series to a deciding game. At home, Chicago should have the edge in a Game 7. Prediction: Bulls win 4-3


Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Dwight Howard and James Harden can absolutely lead the Rockets to an NBA Finals, but they're just as capable of flaming out early. Free-throw shooting is going to be a major factor, as is Patrick Beverley toiling at less than 100 percent at the point. Damian Lillard can take advantage and help steal this series if he's able to find his shooting stroke. He was held to 39 percent as Houston won three of four regular-season meetings, but his streaky nature and ability to raise his game in big moments can help a very capable Portland supporting cast steal a Game 7. LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 26.8 points and 15.5 rebounds against the Rockets, so Howard and friends have and will continue to struggle keeping him in check. Prediction: Trail Blazers win 4-3

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Re: NBA Playoffs Betting Info.4/20

NBA Playoff Odds and Predictions
By: Micah Roberts & Marcus DiNitto
Sportingnews.com

The opening series odds for the first-round of the NBA playoffs do not necessarily present attractive wagering opportunities. Postseason upsets, especially in the early stages, rarely occur, so a bettor is typically faced with the decision either to take a flier on an underdog or lay a substantial price with the favorite.

Indeed, there are just two series in this year’s first-round featuring a favorite that opened at less than 2-to-1.

Nevertheless, we offer our thoughts and predictions for the opening round, which begins this weekend with four games on Saturday and four more on Sunday (we're hesitant to call these picks since, again, there are heavy odds to lay).

The Brooklyn Nets may tantalize some bettors, as they’re the only team favored against a higher-seeded opponent (the Toronto Raptors).

Here’s a look at the opening series prices, as well as Game 1 point spreads and totals, from the LVH SuperBook.

No. 8 Dallas vs. No. 1 San Antonio, Game 1

Game 1 line: Spurs -9, Total 206.5
Series price: Mavericks +500, Spurs -700
Prediction: Spurs in 4

It’s difficult to find any logic to indicate a play on the Mavericks to win the series has value against the top-seeded and top-rated Spurs. History says it isn’t likely, and the Mavs have lost nine straight regular-season games to the Spurs, who have also covered all four meetings this season. The biggest question is whether San Antonio will cover at home, where they are only 20-21 ATS this season. Dallas is 24-17 ATS on the road.

No. 7 Charlotte vs. No. 2 Miami, Game 1

Game 1 line: Heat -9.5, Total: 189.5
Series price: Bobcats +1100, Heat -2500
Prediction: Heat in 5

The Heat won all four of meetings this season and covered in three of them – in fact, the Bobcats have never beaten Miami in the era of the Big Three. While Miami likely wins this series in five, Game 3 will be Charlotte’s spot to win at home, and we can see the Bobcats covering the big Game 1 number as well. The Bobcats have won three straight and eight of their last nine.

No. 5 Washington vs. No. 4 Chicago, Game 1

Game 1 line: Bulls -5, Total: 182
Series price: Wizards +165, Bulls -185
Prediction: Bulls in 6

The Bulls might offer the best value in odds to win the Eastern Conference at 15-to-1 – defense travels well, and after some struggles through the first half of the season, this team is dialed in. They’ve gone 24-9 SU since Feb. 9 and should give the Heat and Pacers a run for their money. We see the Wizards taking Chicago to six games, but the Bulls should advance.

No. 5 Portland vs. No. 4 Houston, Game 1

Game 1 line: Rockets -5.5, Total: 215
Series price: Blazers +175, Rockets -200
Prediction: Rockets in 6

After a dominant run through February and early March, the Rockets have covered the number only three times in their last 11 games. Dwight Howard played sparingly in the last three games, but missed the eight games prior. He was huge in all four of meetings with Portland this season, with Houston winning three of them. But while the Blazers have won five straight coming into the playoffs, this may be too tall a task.

All four meetings this season went OVER the total, so don’t let the 215 scare you away (it could be found for 214.5 as of Thursday evening). On Jan. 20 at Houston, the total was 218 and the Rockets won, 126-113.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Playoffs Betting Info.4/20

NBA Playoffs

Mavericks are trying beat Spurs best-of-7, team they've lost to last nine in a row (2-7 vs spread). Dallas won five of last seven games, is 27-14 vs spread on road this year- they won NBA title in 2011, but haven't won playoff series since. San Antonio has veteran nucleus that has four rings; last of which was in 2007; they're 14-3 last 17 first round series. Spurs were just 3-4 in their last seven games, as they readied for this-- Dallas lost its last seven visits to Alamo.

Are Bobcats just happy to be in playoffs, or will they compete against Miami team thats beaten them 15 times in row (Heat covered eight of last ten in series)? This is Charlotte's second winning season out of 10 in NBA- they got swept 4-0 by Orlando in only other appearance (2010). Bobcats are 23-16-2 vs spread on road; five of their last seven games stayed under total. Miami coasted to 11-14 finish in last 25 games; only two teams have won NBA title after being under .500 in last 25 games- '95 Rockets were last team to do that.

Washington is in playoffs for first time since '08; their last series win was in '05, but with John Wall playing 82 games, they're good. Wizards won two of three vs Chicago this season, is 5-3 in last eight meetings, as 13 of last 16 series games stayed under total. Chicago is in playoffs for 9th time in last 10 years; they're 3-5 in last eight first round series. Noah is playing with heavy heart after his mentor/second dad passed away this week. Wizards are 26-15 vs spread on road this season; they split last four visits to United Center.

Portland missed playoffs last two years, lost last six first round series; last time they won playoff series was 2000. Blazers won nine of last ten games; they're 25-16 vs spread on road this season; Portland lost five of last six games with Rockets-- last seven tilts in series went over total. Portland lost its last three visits to Houston by 15-13-5 points. Rockets are 1-7 in first round series since losing finals in '97- they're 22-17-1 vs spread at home this season. This is only second time Houston has been in playoffs in last five years, so pair of hungry franchises in this series.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Playoffs Betting Info.4/20

StatFox Super Situations


DALLAS at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog 103-55 since 1997. ( 65.2% | 42.5 units ) 0-2 this year. ( 0.0% | -2.2 units )


CHARLOTTE at MIAMI
Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a home loss 182-46 over the last 5 seasons. ( 79.8% | 71.4 units ) 19-8 this year. ( 70.4% | -4.7 units )


DALLAS at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games 44-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.1% | 25.3 units ) 1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Playoffs Betting Info.4/20

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN ANTONIO
Dallas is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games when playing San Antonio
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
San Antonio is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home

3:30 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 9 games when playing Miami
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Charlotte
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte

7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Chicago's last 16 games when playing Washington
Chicago is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

9:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games on the road
Portland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games