NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 4/10

[TheGame]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Dallas won their last four games. Spurs won 20 of last 22 games, covered five of last seven.
-- Golden State won three of its last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Nuggets lost six of their last eight games.

Series records
-- Mavericks lost their last eight games with San Antonio.
-- Warriors lost five of last seven games with Denver.

Totals
-- Five of Spurs' last six games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Denver games went over total.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 4/10

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games on the road
San Antonio is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games


10:30 PM
DENVER vs. GOLDEN STATE
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 4/10

Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Underdogs put together a 7-5 ATS and 4-8 straight-up record in Wednesday’s action as one week of the regular season remains. In tonight’s short card, three of four teams (all from the Western Conference) are likely headed to the playoffs. Besides San Antonio in the top spot, seeds two through eight are up for grabs, which should make for an interesting finish. Tonight, the Spurs battle one of their top state rivals going for the season sweep.

Spurs at Mavericks

San Antonio: 60-18 SU, 43-35 ATS
Dallas: 48-31 SU, 43-36 ATS

The Spurs are on cruise control right now, as a recent 19-game winning streak separated themselves from the rest of the pack in the Western Conference. San Antonio has lost two of three since that hot streak, including Tuesday’s 110-91 setback at Minnesota as 7½-point favorites in which Gregg Popovich’s team trailed by 20 points at halftime. Tony Parker missed the loss with a back injury suffered in last Sunday’s home victory over Memphis, as the points guard is expected to sit out again tonight to rest prior to the playoffs.

The Mavericks return home following a perfect 4-0 road trip, although the final three wins came against non-playoff foes including the Lakers, Kings, and Jazz. Rick Carlisle’s club did grab a huge victory to start the away swing by knocking off the Clippers, 113-107 as four-point underdogs to avoid the four-game sweep to Los Angeles. Tonight, Dallas will try to find a way to beat San Antonio for the first time in four tries this season.

San Antonio’s offense has dominated Dallas in each of the first three meetings, topping the 112-point mark in all three wins. The Spurs covered each of the first two matchups, while the Mavericks picked up a backdoor cover in the previous meeting in San Antonio on March 2 as 6½-point underdogs, 112-106. Dallas has dropped eight straight games against San Antonio dating back to March 2012, including three consecutive defeats at the American Airlines Center.

The Spurs are riding an 8-2 ‘under’ stretch of late, while going ‘under’ the total in five of the past six games away from the AT&T Center. Dallas is coming off three consecutive ‘unders,’ but the Mavs have hit the ‘over’ in six of the last seven games at the American Airlines Center.

Nuggets at Warriors

Denver: 34-44 SU, 38-40 ATS
Golden State: 48-29 SU, 37-37-3 ATS

Even though the Nuggets aren’t headed to the playoffs, Denver has turned into a great team to back over the last few weeks. In spite of injuries ravaging this club, the Nuggets have put together a 12-3 ATS record the past 15 games, which includes last night’s 123-116 home triumph as two-point underdogs against the Rockets. Brian Shaw’s team has cashed in five of the last seven games as a road ‘dog, but the Nuggets have lost each of their past six contests away from the Pepsi Center.

The Warriors knocked the Nuggets out of the playoffs last season in the first round, as Golden State is on the verge of headed back to the postseason. Mark Jackson’s squad is coming off consecutive home blowouts over the Kings and Jazz, beating those teams by a combined 61 points in easy covers. The Warriors will try to accomplish something tonight they haven’t done all season, which is cover three straight games at Oracle Arena, as Golden State is just 5-5 ATS the last 10 games by the Bay.

The road team has won each of the first two meetings this season, including a 123-116 victory by the Nuggets at Oracle Arena as eight-point underdogs on January 15. Denver shot 54% from the floor, as Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, J.J. Hickson, and Nate Robinson combined for 81 points, but all four players will be unavailable tonight due to injury. That victory by the Nuggets snapped a four-game skid in Oakland, which includes three losses in their first round playoff series defeat last season.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 4/10

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games on the road
San Antonio is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games


10:30 PM
DENVER vs. GOLDEN STATE
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 4/10

NBA Odds and Picks
By: Michael Robinson
Sportingnews.com

The Dallas Mavericks are getting hot at the right time and are zeroing in on a playoff berth. They host the San Antonio Spurs in the first half of the TNT Thursday doubleheader (8:00 p.m. ET), followed by Denver at Golden State (10:30 p.m. ET). These are the only two games on Turner's exclusive night of NBA coverage.

Line: Dallas -1, Total: 201.5

Dallas (48-31 SU, 42-36-1 ATS) just completed a four-game road trip at 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. The competition was pretty easy with the last three against the lottery-bound Lakers, Kings and Jazz. All three went UNDER the total (average total points scored of 188).

The Mavericks, with three games to play, have cut their magic number to clinch a playoff berth to two. Their final two games are against Phoenix and Memphis, the teams right behind them, so a win against San Antonio is crucial.

Coach Rick Carlisle's guys need to establish a homecourt swagger, going just 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS in the last eight at American Airlines Center. The home ATS mark for the year (16-22-1) has been much worse than away (26-14).

The Spurs (60-18 SU, 43-35 ATS) have a magic number of two to clinch the best record in the Western Conference over Oklahoma City. They failed to help their cause on Tuesday, a 110-91 loss at Minnesota as 7-point favorites.

San Antonio has now dropped two of three games (1-2 ATS) after its stunning 19-game win streak (15-4 ATS). The UNDER is 8-2-1 in its last 11 games.

Point guard Tony Parker (back) missed the Minnesota game and is out for Thursday. Manu Ginobili's status is uncertain after hurting his calf last game. This is a very deep squad, but it still hurts when those two are out.

The Spurs have won all three games against the Mavericks this year, the one failure to cover coming by a half-point (112-106 as 6.5-point home favorites on March 2). They are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games overall in Big D.

The Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings (updated April 8) have top-ranked San Antonio 4.5 points better than the Mavs on a neutral court.

The Linemakers' lean: Dallas moved past the mediocrity it displayed in its last home stand and put together an impressive run on the road. The Mavs are the more desperate team in this spot playing against a less-than-full strength rival. Meanwhile, just two of San Antonio's last 11 games have gone OVER, a trend worth riding. Mavs and UNDER are the plays.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (-11, 214.5)

The Warriors (48-29 SU, 37-38-2 ATS) started their three-game home stand with big wins over Sacramento (102-69 as 8.5-point favorites) and Utah (130-102 as 11.5-point favorites). They are well-rested with the Utah game coming last Sunday.

Center Andrew Bogut (pelvis) returned against the Jazz and had 11 boards in 23 minutes. His presence is important with power forward David Lee (hamstring) missing the last six games and out Thursday. Golden State is nestled into the sixth spot in the Western Conference.

The Nuggets (33-44 SU, 36-40-1 ATS) are out of the playoff chase and not winning a lot lately, but are still getting covers. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games, including a 123-116 victory as 2-point dogs against Houston last night.

Denver has a number of injured players, including point guard Ty Lawson, who has missed the last two games and is out again on Thursday. Aaron Brooks is his backup. The team has fared poorly in the second half of a back-to-back this season, going just 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS.

A much healthier Denver squad won the last game versus Golden State, 123-116 as 8-point road dogs on Jan. 15. The Nuggets were 0-7 ATS in the prior seven meetings between the teams, including a 6-game series in the first round of last year's playoffs.

The Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings have the Warriors a modest four points better than the Nuggets on a neutral court.