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NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/7

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  • NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/7

    NBA

    Hot teams
    -- Grizzlies won seven of their last ten games. Chicago won five of its last six games.
    -- Toronto won seven of its last nine games. Kings won last two games, are 5-4 in their last nine.
    -- Brooklyn won/covered its last four games.
    -- Minnesota won six of its last eight games.
    -- Trailblazers won six of their last seven games.
    -- Rockets won five of their last six games.
    -- Golden State won seven of its last nine games.

    Cold Teams
    -- Cavaliers lost five of their last seven games.
    -- Charlotte lost three of its last four games.
    -- Celtics lost seven of their last eight games.
    -- New York lost seven of its last eight games. Jazz lost seven of their last nine games.
    -- Pistons lost five of their last six games.
    -- New Orleans lost eight of its last nine games. Bucks lost five of their last seven.
    -- Dallas lost its last three games, by 9-6-5 points.
    -- Lakers lost nine of their last twelve games. Denver lost six of their last seven games.
    -- Pacers lost their last two games, after winning previous five.
    -- Hawks lost 12 of their last 13 games (1-6 vs spread in last seven).

    Series records
    -- Grizzlies won three of last four games with Chicago.
    -- Bobcats won their last three games with Cleveland.
    -- Raptors lost their last four games with Sacramento.
    -- Nets won five of their last six games with Boston.
    -- Knicks won their last five games with Utah.
    -- Pistons lost their last seven game s with Minnesota.
    -- Pelicans won five of last six games with Milwaukee.
    -- Mavericks won five of last seven games with Portland.
    -- Lakers lost their last five games against Denver.
    -- Pacers won eight of last ten games with Houston.
    -- Warriors won their last four games with Atlanta.

    Totals
    -- Last eight Memphis games went over the total.
    -- Four of last five Charlotte games went over.
    -- Five of last six King-Raptor games went over.
    -- Four of last five Boston games went over total.
    -- Four of last five Utah games stayed under total.
    -- Seven of last nine Detroit games went over total.
    -- Last six Milwaukee games went over the total.
    -- Last seven Portland games stayed under the total.
    -- Last six Denver-Laker games went over the total.
    -- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Indiana games.
    -- Seven of last eight Atlanta games went over total.

  • #2
    Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/7

    Friday's NBA Tips
    By Kevin Rogers
    VegasInsider.com

    Grizzlies at Bulls

    Memphis: 34-26 SU, 27-31-2 ATS
    Chicago: 34-27 SU, 32-29 ATS

    The Grizzlies are coming off probably their flattest performance of the season on Wednesday, falling at Brooklyn, 103-94. The nine-point loss doesn’t seem that embarrassing on the surface, but Memphis trailed, 21-2 to start the game and played from behind all night, as Zach Randolph missed the defeat with the flu. In spite of that setback, the Grizzlies have won 24 of their past 35 contests since a five-game skid in mid-December, while cashing 11 of their last 15 away from FedEx Forum.

    The Bulls continue to make a push in the Eastern Conference, trying to grab the third seed, as Chicago knocked off Detroit on Wednesday, 105-94 to cash as four-point road favorites. Tom Thibodeau’s club has won five of their past six games, while riding a five-game hot streak at the United Center since the start of February. Chicago took care of Memphis as five-point road underdogs on December 30 with a 95-91 triumph, snapping a three-game skid to the Grizzlies which dated back to 2012.

    Kings at Raptors

    Sacramento: 22-39 SU, 27-32-2 ATS
    Toronto: 33-26 SU, 35-23-1 ATS

    The Kings continue a seven-game road swing following Wednesday’s blowout of Milwaukee, 116-102 to cash as 3½-point favorites. Sacramento seeks just its second winning streak of three games this season, while posting a 7-14 SU and 9-12 ATS record off a victory. Mike Malone’s team has won four straight meetings against the Raptors, including a 109-101 home triumph last month. However, Sacramento has won just twice in 14 tries this season on the road against teams off a win, while covering four times in this situation.

    The Raptors have been off since Sunday’s home underdog victory over the Warriors, as Toronto improved to 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS since the All-Star break. At home, the Raptors haven’t been as strong as other playoff teams (17-12), while owning a dreadful 2-6 SU/ATS record at the Air Canada Center against teams off consecutive wins. Defensively, Toronto has limited seven of its past eight opponents to less than 100 points, resulting in six ‘unders.’

    Blazers at Mavericks

    Portland: 42-19 SU, 33-28 ATS
    Dallas: 36-26 SU, 34-28 ATS

    The Blazers have stepped up their defense since the All-Star break, allowing less than 100 points to six of their last seven foes, while cashing six consecutive ‘unders.’ The most recent stellar defensive showing came in Wednesday’s 102-78 blowout of the struggling Hawks, the sixth win in the past seven games for Portland. The Blazers embark on a five-game road trip that includes visits to Houston, Memphis, and San Antonio following Friday’s matchup at Dallas. In two meetings this season, the road team has won each time, including a 127-111 rout by the Blazers as two-point road favorites on January 18.

    The Mavericks fell behind early and never recovered in Wednesday’s 115-110 defeat at Denver, allowing 41 points in the opening quarter. Dallas lost to Denver for the third time this season, while losing its third straight overall since a four-game winning streak. Rick Carlisle’s club has compiled a terrific 9-2 ATS record as a favorite of 3½ points or less, which includes a 2-0 SU/ATS mark at the American Airlines Center.

    Pacers at Rockets

    Indiana: 46-15 SU, 33-27-1 ATS
    Houston: 42-19 SU, 32-27-2 ATS

    The Pacers are still the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but Indiana is coming off consecutive losses to Golden State and Charlotte earlier this week. Frank Vogel’s team fell in the final seconds to the Warriors, but the Central Division leaders were limited to just eight points in the opening quarter of Wednesday’s 109-87 setback to the Bobcats as 4 ½-point favorites. Indiana has won five of its past seven on the road with at least one day of rest, while annihilating Houston at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in December, 114-81.

    The Rockets are breathing down the necks of the Spurs in the Southwest Division, thanks to winning 13 of their past 15 games. Houston is rolling at the Toyota Center by going 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS since falling at home to Oklahoma City in mid-January, which includes wins over Miami, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Portland. In the last four games at home, the Rockets are playing their typical run-and-gun style, cashing the ‘over’ four times, while putting up at least 106 points in five consecutive home contests.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/7

      Today's NBA Picks

      Sacramento at Toronto

      The Kings (22-39) head to Toronto tonight to face a Raptors team that is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage under .400. Toronto is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Raptors favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-6 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
      FRIDAY, MARCH 7
      Time Posted: 11:30 a.m. EST
      Game 801-802: Cleveland at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 115.609; Charlotte 123.899
      Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 8 1/2; 199
      Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 4 1/2; 194
      Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-4 1/2); Over
      Game 803-804: Memphis at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 121.300; Chicago 121.292
      Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 176
      Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 180 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+2); Under
      Game 805-806: Sacramento at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.421; Toronto 126.066
      Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 10 1/2; 212
      Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 6 1/2; 206
      Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-6 1/2); Over
      Game 807-808: Utah at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Utah 111.043; New York 119.703
      Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 8 1/2; 192
      Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 197
      Dunkel Pick: New York (-6 1/2); Under
      Game 809-810: Brooklyn at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 122.339; Boston 115.167
      Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7; 192
      Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 4; 195
      Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-4); Under
      Game 811-812: Detroit at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.518; Minnesota 126.420
      Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 13; 222
      Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 9; 217 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9); Over
      Game 813-814: Milwaukee at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 107.860; New Orleans 118.394
      Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 198
      Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 202 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-8); Under
      Game 815-816: Portland at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Portland 122.179; Dallas 121.370
      Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 222
      Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 2 1/2; 217
      Dunkel Pick: Portland (+2 1/2); Over
      Game 817-818: LA Lakers at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 108.033; Denver 119.441
      Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 11 1/2; 232
      Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 9; 227
      Dunkel Pick: Denver (-9); Over
      Game 819-820: Indiana at Houston (9:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.950; Houston 129.125
      Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 13; 196
      Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 4; 201
      Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under
      Game 821-822: Atlanta at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.053; Golden State 126.358
      Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 16 1/2; 218
      Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 9 1/2; 211
      Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-9 1/2); Over

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/7

        StatFox Super Situations

        MEMPHIS at CHICAGO
        Play On - Any team (MEMPHIS) after going over the total by more than 6 points in five consecutive games, in non-conference games 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

        DETROIT at MINNESOTA
        Play Against - Any team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games 82-58 since 1997. ( 58.6% | 41.6 units ) 0-3 this year. ( 0.0% | -3.0 units )

        BROOKLYN at BOSTON
        Play Against - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (BROOKLYN) after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team 70-33 since 1997. ( 68.0% | 33.7 units ) 4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/7

          7:00 PM
          CLEVELAND vs. CHARLOTTE
          Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Charlotte
          Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
          Charlotte is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

          7:00 PM
          SACRAMENTO vs. TORONTO
          Sacramento is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
          Sacramento is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games
          Toronto is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Sacramento

          7:00 PM
          MEMPHIS vs. CHICAGO
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
          The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Memphis's last 11 games when playing Chicago
          Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
          Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Memphis

          7:30 PM
          BROOKLYN vs. BOSTON
          Brooklyn is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
          Brooklyn is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
          Boston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

          7:30 PM
          UTAH vs. NEW YORK
          Utah is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
          Utah is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          New York is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
          New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah

          8:00 PM
          MILWAUKEE vs. NEW ORLEANS
          Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
          Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
          The total has gone OVER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
          New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

          8:00 PM
          DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
          Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          Detroit is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
          Minnesota is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
          Minnesota is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Detroit

          8:30 PM
          PORTLAND vs. DALLAS
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing Dallas
          Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
          Dallas is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
          Dallas is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Portland

          9:00 PM
          LA LAKERS vs. DENVER
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
          LA Lakers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
          Denver is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Lakers

          9:30 PM
          INDIANA vs. HOUSTON
          Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Indiana's last 18 games when playing on the road against Houston
          Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
          The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Houston's last 18 games when playing at home against Indiana

          10:30 PM
          ATLANTA vs. GOLDEN STATE
          Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Golden State
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
          Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/7

            Game of the Day: Pacers at Rockets
            By Covers.com

            Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets (-3, 203)

            The Indiana Pacers will try to avoid their first three-game losing streak of the season Friday night when they visit the Houston Rockets, owners of the NBA’s best record since Jan. 1. The Pacers are coming off Wednesday’s humbling loss to the host Charlotte Bobcats, a night after they fell to the visiting Golden State Warriors, and leading scorer Paul George had his worst shooting performance as a pro, missing all nine field-goal attempts and scoring two points against the Bobcats.

            Houston improved to 21-6 in 2014 with a 101-89 win Wednesday at the Orlando Magic, a night after knocking off the two-time defending champion Miami Heat. The Pacers struggled to defend the interior against Charlotte and could run into similar problems against the Dwight Howard-led Rockets, who outscored the Magic 58-26 in the paint. Howard outplayed Indiana center Roy Hibbert when these teams met Dec. 20 in Indianapolis, but the Pacers won 114-81 to end their only other two-game losing streak this season.

            LINE HISTORY: Early lines in Las Vegas have the Rockets set as 3-point home favorites with the total at 203 points.

            COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Indiana (-13.5) - Houston (-12.3) + Home Court (-3.0) = Houston -1.8

            INJURY WATCH: Pacers - C.J. Watson (Ques. elbow). Rockets - Patrick Beverley (Prob. nose)

            WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Rockets have the best record in the league since January 1 and have feasted on the Eastern Conference, going 19-3 SU in non-conference games including the win over Miami." - Covers Expert Bryan Power.

            WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Pacers come in to this matchup struggling off a blowout loss to the Bobcats. The Pacers are 7-5 in their last 12 games. Meanwhile, the Rockets are coming into this matchup on a three-game win streak, already beating the second-place team in the East, the Miami Heat. Can they knock off the East leaders as well?" - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

            ABOUT INDIANA (46-15 SU, 33-27-1 ATS, 37-32-2 O/U): The Pacers are beginning to show some wear and tear in the second half of the season. They were 33-7 following a win at Golden State on Jan. 20 but have since hit two patches where they lost three of five and now dropped two straight, drawing the Heat within 1 ½ games of the top spot in the East. George told reporters after the Charlotte loss that he was unusually sore, and second-leading scorer Lance Stephenson appeared to be favoring his groin during the game and failed to reach his 14.1 scoring average for the third straight game.

            ABOUT HOUSTON (42-19 SU, 32-27-2 ATS, 29-30-2 O/U): James Harden has started the month of March about as well as can be expected. He had his first back-to-back games with at least 20 points and 10 assists to start the month and came back with 31 points and six assists against the Magic. George and the Pacers gave him problems in their last meeting, however, holding him to 12 points on 3-for-14 shooting, but it was later learned that Harden played on a bad ankle, which kept him out of the next two games.

            TRENDS:


            * Pacers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
            * Pacers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
            * Under is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings.

            Comment

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