NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/6

[TheGame]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Heat won eight of their last nine games. San Antonio won seven of its last eight games.
-- Oklahoma City won its last three games (2-0-1 vs spread).
-- Clippers won/covered their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Suns lost four of their last six games.
-- Lakers lost 15 of their last 20 games.

Series records
-- Miami is 9-3 in last 12 games against the Spurs; they beat them LY in Finals in seven games.
-- Thunder won their last eleven games with Phoenix.
-- Clippers won five of last six games with the Lakers.

Totals
-- Eight of last ten San Antonio games went over total.
-- Four of last five Thunder games went over the total.
-- Ten of last eleven Laker-Clipper games went over total.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/6

NBA Betting News and Notes
Covers.com

Clippers and Lakers put on a show/ solid Over play

When the Clippers and Lakers met, they treat the audience to an offensive show. The past 11 meetings between the Los Angeles rivals have resulted in 10 Over plays for bettors. The one lone Under came in their last game when the Clippers and Lakers scored 210 missing the O/U by .5.

In those past 11 games the Clippers and Lakers have averaged 208 ppg and have gone for 200 or more points nine times.

The O/U line opened 225 for the Clippers and Lakers game Thursday.


Suns have been able to bounce back for bettors

The Phoenix Suns have been streaky straight-up all season long, but they've been able to bounce back after their losses for bettors. After a SU loss, the Suns are 19-7 ATS (against the spread) in their past 26 games.

The Suns (-5.5) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday.

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Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/6

Thursday's Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Heat at Spurs

Miami: 43-15 SU, 27-29-2 ATS
San Antonio: 44-16 SU, 29-31 ATS

The Heat continues a three-game road trip on Thursday night, making their first visit to San Antonio since last June’s NBA Finals. Miami lost in its previous voyage to the Alamo in Game 5 of the Finals, but ended up winning the last two games at home to claim the franchise’s third championship. In the rematch back in late January at the American Airlines Arena, Miami destroyed San Antonio, 113-101, as the Heat led by 29 points in the second half before taking their foots off the gas.

Miami saw its eight-game winning streak snapped in Houston on Tuesday in a 106-103 defeat as two-point underdogs. Erik Spoelstra’s club broke the 100-point mark for the eighth time in nine games, but their four-game hot streak on the highway went up in smoke as the Rockets shot 51% from the floor. In six opportunities as a road underdog this season, the Heat owns a 4-2 SU/ATS record, which includes victories at the Thunder, Warriors, and Clippers.

The Spurs continue to roll under the radar (as usual), winning seven of their previous eight contests, including Tuesday’s 122-101 rout at Cleveland. Since late January, Gregg Popovich’s squad has compiled a 1-5 ATS mark at home, but the Spurs have won four consecutive games at the AT&T Center. San Antonio is on a solid ‘over’ run lately, hitting the ‘over’ in eight of the past 10 contests, while cashing the ‘over’ in 11 straight games when scoring at least 100 points.

Thunder at Suns

Oklahoma City: 46-15 SU, 34-26-1 ATS
Phoenix: 35-25 SU, 38-21-1 ATS

After covering the largest pointspread in the NBA this season (21), the Thunder hits the highway for a brief two-game road trip. Oklahoma City obliterated Philadelphia on Tuesday, 125-92 to win its third straight following a three-game skid, while topping the 104-point mark in each of the past five contests. The Thunder has struck gold on the road since mid-January, winning eight of their last 10 away from Chesapeake Energy Arena, but OKC has failed to cover three of the previous four road contests.

The Suns have remained in the top eight of the Western Conference playoff race, in spite of losing four of their past six games. In Tuesday’s setback to the Clippers, Jeff Hornacek’s club squandered an 11-point halftime lead in a 104-96 loss as four-point underdogs. Phoenix’s defense has been shredded recently, allowing at least 104 points in six consecutive contests. Since beating the Warriors on December 18, the Suns are just 2-5 ATS the last seven opportunities as a home underdog, which includes losses to three of the four top teams in the West.

Oklahoma City is making its first venture to the Valley this season, as the Thunder knocked off the Suns, 103-96 back on November 3. Phoenix cashed that night as 12½-point road underdogs, but the Suns enter Thursday’s action at 0-4 SU/ATS at home this season looking to avenge a road loss. The Thunder looks to continue their domination of the Suns dating back to 2010, as OKC is 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS the last 11 meetings with Phoenix.

Clippers at Lakers

L.A. Clippers: 42-20 SU, 36-26 ATS
L.A. Lakers: 21-40 SU, 32-28-1 ATS

The battle of Southern California wraps up the night in the NBA, as the Lakers have won two of their last three games. The loss that snapped a modest two-game hot streak was an embarrassing one, allowing 132 points to a Pelicans’ team that entered Tuesday’s play with eight consecutive losses, as New Orleans wrapped up its disastrous road trip with a 132-125 triumph as three-point ‘dogs. The Lakers are still in the dumps in the Pacific Division, but Mike D’Antoni’s team picked up a 107-106 upset of the Blazers as 12-point ‘dogs on Monday, their ninth cover when receiving at least 9½ points this season.

The Clippers return home with a five-game winning streak following Tuesday’s 104-96 victory at Phoenix, the fifth cover in as many games. Doc Rivers' crew has stepped up the defense of late by cashing three straight ‘unders,’ but the Clippers are just 3-3 SU/ATS the last six road games. Technically, it is an away contest for the Clips with the Lakers being listed as the home team on Thursday, but the Clips have won 12 of their past 14 contests played at Staples Center.

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Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/6

StatFox Super Situations

LA CLIPPERS at LA LAKERS
Play On - Road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games 152-87 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.6% | 56.3 units ) 17-4 this year. ( 81.0% | 12.6 units )

LA CLIPPERS at LA LAKERS
Play Against - Home underdogs vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games 274-91 since 1997. ( 75.1% | 89.5 units ) 24-6 this year. ( 80.0% | 13.1 units )

MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more 89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units ) 8-3 this year. ( 72.7% | 4.7 units )

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/6

8:00 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 15 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Antonio's last 15 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Phoenix's last 19 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. LA LAKERS
LA Clippers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 10 of the LA Clippers last 11 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/6

Today's NBA Picks

Miami at San Antonio

The Heat (19-11 on the road) head to San Antonio tonight to face a Spurs team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record. Miami is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MARCH 6 Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Miami at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.328; San Antonio 122.327 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6; 215 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 209 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Oklahoma City at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 125.619; Phoenix 116.661 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 208 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 215 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: LA Clippers at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 121.568; LA Lakers 117.756 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4; 221 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10 1/2; 225 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+10 1/2); Under

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/6

Game of the Day: Heat at Spurs
By Covers.com

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-2.5, 208)

A rematch of last season's NBA Finals — and perhaps a preview of this year's — is on tap Thursday when the San Antonio Spurs host the Miami Heat. It's the second meeting of the season, and the Heat picked up where they left off last June in the first, winning 113-101 at home. San Antonio was short-handed, playing without three starters, but should be at full strength this time.

The Heat, who are 1 1/2 games behind Indiana for the top spot in the East, had an eight-game winning streak snapped in a 106-103 loss at Houston on Tuesday. Star LeBron James ran out of gas in the second half a night after putting up a career-high 61 points against Charlotte. The Spurs trail Oklahoma City by 1 1/2 games for the best record in the West, having won four straight and seven of eight after a 122-101 win at Cleveland on Tuesday.

LINE HISTORY: San Antonio opened as a 2.5-point home favorite while the total opened at 207 and jumped to 208 points.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-14.5) - San Antonio (-12.5) + Home Court (-3.0) = San Antonio -1.0

INJURY WATCH: Heat - Greg Oden (Prob. knees)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "After their lowest scoring quarter of the season (13 points) in the first vs. Cleveland, the Spurs would go on to score 109 points over the final three. They assisted on 39 of 43 field goals for the game." - Covers Expert Bryan Power.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The second and final meeting between the last year's NBA Finals participants. The Heat took Game 1 with ease on their home court. Can the Spurs defend their home court? Always a entertaining matchup between these two powerhouse teams." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag

ABOUT THE HEAT (43-15 SU, 27-29-2 ATS, 34-24 O/U): Miami had a scare when James broke his nose Feb. 20 at Oklahoma City, but he missed only one game and has been as good as ever in four games since. James has scored 20 or more points in eight straight games and is averaging 33.5 points in four games wearing a protective mask. James had a modest 18 points in the first meeting this season, but Chris Bosh poured in 24 to lead six Miami players in double figures.

ABOUT THE SPURS (44-16 SU, 29-31 ATS, 36-23-1 O/U): San Antonio has long been known for its unselfish play, but the Spurs were in rare form against the Cavaliers, racking up a season-high 39 assists on 43 field goals. It helps that the Spurs are finally healthy after battling numerous injuries for much of the season — they were without starters Tiago Splitter, Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard the first time they played Miami. The big man Splitter has been something of a bellwether this season — the Spurs are 16-0 when he scores in double figures.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Antonio.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 55 percent of bets are on Miami and 60 percent are on Over 208.