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NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/5

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  • NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/5

    Hot teams
    -- Pacers won five of last six games, covered one of last seven.
    -- Rockets won 12 of their last 14 games.
    -- Wizards won six of their last seven games.
    -- Warriors won six of their last eight games.
    -- Grizzlies won seven of their last nine games.
    -- Brooklyn won four of its last five games.
    -- Chicago won four of its last five games.
    -- Minnesota won six of its last seven games.
    -- Trailblazers won five of their last six games.

    Cold Teams
    -- Bobcats lost last three games by 10-17-17 points.
    -- Magic lost six of last nine games, are 10-20-2 vs spread on road.
    -- Utah lost last three games by 20-3-26 points.
    -- Celtics lost six of their last seven games.
    -- Pistons lost seven of their last nine games.
    -- Bucks lost 22 of their last 27 games.
    -- Sacramento lost three of its last four games.
    -- Knicks lost their last seven games (1-6 vs spread).
    -- Denver lost its last six games, covered last two.
    -- Mavericks lost last two games, by 9-6 points.
    -- Hawks lost 11 of their last 12 games (1-10-1 vs spread).

    Series records
    -- Pacers won five in row, 14 of last 15 games with Charlotte.
    -- Rockets won last three games with Orlando by 8-8-10 points.
    -- Jazz won last four games with Washington, by 14-7-4-3 points.
    -- Warriors lost last four visits to Boston, by 8-14-4-8 points.
    -- Nets won four of last six games with Memphis.
    -- Pistons won two of last three vs Chicago, after losing previous seven.
    -- Kings lost three of last four visits to Milwaukee.
    -- Knicks won their last four games with Minnesota.
    -- Nuggets won four of last five games with Dallas.
    -- Hawks won eight of last ten games with Portland.

    Totals
    -- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Indiana games.
    -- Six of last eight Houston games went over total.
    -- Three of last four Utah games stayed under total.
    -- Seven of last eight Golden State games stayed under.
    -- Last seven Memphis games went over the total.
    -- Six of last eight Detroit games went over the total.
    -- Seven of last eight Milwaukee games went over.
    -- Seven of last ten New York games went over total.
    -- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Minnesota games.
    -- Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total.
    -- Last seven Atlanta games went over the total.

  • #2
    Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/5

    Wednesday's Tips
    By Kevin Rogers
    VegasInsider.com

    Grizzlies at Nets

    Memphis: 34-25 SU, 27-30-2 ATS
    Brooklyn: 29-29 SU, 30-28 ATS

    The Grizzlies continue their push towards the Western Conference playoffs after starting their three-game road trip with a 110-104 triumph at Washington on Monday. Amazingly, Memphis sits in ninth place inside the West in spite of a 19-6 straight-up record the last 25 games, but the Grizzlies own a 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS record the past seven away contests. Dave Joerger’s club has pushed the tempo lately by hitting the ‘over’ in seven straight games, while busting the 107-point mark in each of the last four contests. The Grizzlies are playing with revenge on Wednesday after getting tripped up by the Nets in late November as seven-point home favorites, 97-88.

    Brooklyn returned home from a 4-2 road swing to dominate Chicago on Monday, 96-80 to beat the Bulls for the first time in three tries this season. Jason Kidd’s team has won five straight games at the Barclays Center, while winning five of the last six at home against Western Conference foes. The Nets are 6-2-1 to the ‘over’ the past nine opportunities after scoring less than 100 points in the previous contest, while scoring at least 105 points in the last four times in this situation.

    Bulls at Pistons

    Chicago: 33-27 SU, 31-29 ATS
    Detroit: 24-36 SU, 27-32-1 ATS

    These two division rivals are meeting up for the first time in nearly three months, as the road team has taken each of the first two matchups. The Bulls have won nine of their last 11 games, with the two losses coming on the highway to the Nets and Heat by double-digits. Since suffering a four-game skid in December, Chicago has compiled a 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS record off a loss, while dropping consecutive road games just twice since December.

    The Pistons snapped a four-game skid in Monday’s 96-85 triumph over the slumping Knicks, while limiting an opponent to less than 100 points for the first time in eight games. Detroit has hit the ‘over’ in 10 of the past 13 games, including six of the last nine at the Palace of Auburn Hills. In four home contests against Central Division foes, the Pistons have lost three times, including a 99-79 setback to the Bulls in late November.

    Mavericks at Nuggets

    Dallas: 36-25 SU, 34-27 ATS
    Denver: 25-34 SU, 25-34 ATS

    The Nuggets continue to crash and burn after losing their sixth straight game on Monday to the Wolves. Denver managed a cover as 5½-point home ‘dogs with a 45-point fourth quarter, but the Nuggets’ defense has allowed at least 100 points in 16 of the last 17 games. Brian Shaw’s club has dropped five consecutive contests at the Pepsi Center since the All-Star break, as Denver lost just three regular season home games all of last season. In two matchups this season, the Nuggets have bested the Mavericks, including a 102-100 triumph as five-point underdogs on November 23.

    The Mavs have lost consecutive games just three times since Christmas, as Dallas is coming off back-to-back losses to Chicago and San Antonio. Rick Carlisle’s squad picked up a late cover as 6 ½-point road ‘dogs against the Spurs on Sunday, improving to 6-3 ATS the last nine when receiving points away from the American Airlines Center. Dallas has broken the 100-point mark in seven of the past nine games on the highway, while cashing the ‘over’ seven times in this span.

    Hawks at Blazers

    Atlanta: 26-32 SU, 27-30-1 ATS
    Portland: 41-19 SU, 32-28 ATS

    The Hawks have fallen apart at the seams, dropping 11 of their past 12 games to drop into the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Atlanta continues its six-game road swing, which has started with losses at Boston and Phoenix. Defensively, the Hawks have been atrocious, seeing the ‘over’ hit in seven straight games, while giving up at least 106 points in six of the past seven contests. Atlanta has dropped seven of its previous nine games to Western Conference opponents, while last beating a Western squad on the road on November 5 at Sacramento.

    Portland’s five-game winning streak went up in smoke in Monday’s shocking home defeat to the Lakers as 12-point favorites, 107-106. The Blazers have drilled the ‘under’ in six straight contests, but four of those totals closed at 214 or above, including the loss to Los Angeles, which closed at 222½. Terry Stotts’ team has not lost consecutive home games this season, but the Blazers are 2-5 ATS the last seven contests as a home favorite of seven points or more. Portland has beaten 10 of 12 Eastern Conference opponents at the Moda Center, but one of those losses did come to a horrid Philadelphia squad back in January.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/5

      NBA Betting News and Notes
      Covers.com

      Mavericks-Nuggets favors the road team

      In the last 13 meetings between the Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets the road team is 11-2 against the spread.

      The Mavs also have an amazing 21-11 ATS record this season on the road, while the Nuggets are a sub-par 11-19 ATS when at home.

      The Mavs will travel to Denver as 4.5-point road faves Wednesday.


      Rockets have had problems covering against Magic

      It’s been a long time since the Houston Rockets have covered a spread against the Orlando Magic. The last time the Rockets covered against the Magic was April 7, 2009 and since then Houston is 0-8 ATS versus Orlando.

      Earlier this season when the Rockets hosted the Magic, Houston failed to cover Orlando +13.5.

      The Rockets will visit Orlando Wednesday and this game is currently off the board.


      Hawks losing and not paying out to bettors

      The Atlanta Hawks have been on a skid since the start of February, going 2-11 straight-up. Bettors have not found much solace in the Hawks as they are 2-10-1 against the spread during that time, including 0-6-1 on the road.

      The Hawks will travel to Portland Wednesday. This game is currently off the board.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/5

        StatFox Super Situations

        CHICAGO at DETROIT
        Play Against - Home underdogs (DETROIT) after 1 or more consecutive unders, an good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games 49-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units ) 4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )

        SACRAMENTO at MILWAUKEE
        Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 93-35 since 1997. ( 72.7% | 42.3 units ) 4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 1.0 units )

        MEMPHIS at BROOKLYN
        Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, in March games 59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/5

          7:00 PM
          HOUSTON vs. ORLANDO
          Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Orlando
          Houston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Orlando
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games
          Orlando is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

          7:00 PM
          INDIANA vs. CHARLOTTE
          Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
          Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
          Charlotte is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Indiana
          Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

          7:00 PM
          UTAH vs. WASHINGTON
          Utah is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
          Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

          7:30 PM
          GOLDEN STATE vs. BOSTON
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
          Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
          Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
          Boston is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home

          7:30 PM
          CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Detroit
          Chicago is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games when playing Detroit
          The total has gone OVER in 13 of Detroit's last 19 games when playing at home against Chicago
          Detroit is 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Chicago

          7:30 PM
          MEMPHIS vs. BROOKLYN
          The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Memphis's last 12 games on the road
          Memphis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
          Brooklyn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
          Brooklyn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

          8:00 PM
          DALLAS vs. DENVER
          Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
          Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

          8:00 PM
          SACRAMENTO vs. MILWAUKEE
          Sacramento is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
          Sacramento is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
          Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
          Milwaukee is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games at home

          8:00 PM
          NEW YORK vs. MINNESOTA
          New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
          New York is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
          Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
          Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

          10:30 PM
          ATLANTA vs. PORTLAND
          Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
          Portland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
          Portland is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing Atlanta

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/5

            Best and Worst NBA Bets Out Of The Break
            By Brian Covert
            Covers.com

            It’s been approximately 10 games since the All-Star break and we’re starting to get a sense of where everyone stands heading into the NBA’s stretch run.

            With that in mind, we look at six teams – three hot and three cold – bettors may want to take notice of over the season’s final 20 games.

            The Hottest

            Milwaukee Bucks


            This is a weird one.

            For the first 50 games it looked like the Milwaukee Bucks were captaining the S.S. Tankapaolooza but now that they’re within sight of shore and it seems they’ve decided to play some basketball. The result is a 3-4 SU record since the break and an impressive 5-2 record ATS.

            They’ve played so well they’ve even crept within a couple of games of Philadelphia for second-last overall which makes one think management will have a talk with coach Larry Drew to quell any mutiny before they reach land.

            Chicago Bulls

            Tom Thibodeau may be Bulls’ management’s worst nightmare.

            See, the notion around the NBA is that you have to have a superstar to win and the easiest way to get a superstar is to bottom out and acquire him in the draft. But Thibs continues to make lemonade out of lemons and despite losing his one bonafide star - Derrick Rose - for the season, he just can’t let the Bulls go gently into the night. Case in point is a recent 10-game stretch that has seen Chicago go 8-2 both SU and ATS.

            They currently sit third in the East and you can bet the reason the Pacers and Heat want to secure first in the conference is as much about avoiding Chicago in the second round as it is homecourt throughout the playoffs.

            Miami Heat

            Yeah, yeah, yeah…the Heat as one of the NBA’s hottest teams is certainly not news to anyone. But it’s the manner in which they’re playing right now that has to be ominous for the rest of the league.

            Case in point was Monday’s win over the Charlotte Bobcats in which Dwyane Wade sat and Leron James decided to drop 61 points on a Charlotte team that is one of the NBA’s better defensive teams and had been playing some decent basketball. This result came close on the heels of a win over the previously mentioned Bulls in which LeBron sat so Chris Bosh and Wade combined for 51.

            The Heat are now going as many as 12 deep on any given night, have won 10 of 11 going 7-2-2 ATS, and one gets the sense they are just getting started on something special. The rest of the league better watch out.

            The Coldest

            Atlanta Hawks

            One could’ve easily put the Philadelphia 76ers on this list, what with them having lost 14 in a row and covering just three in that span.

            But then we’d be overlooking an Atlanta Hawks team that has been in free fall going 1-5 since the All-Star break and dropping 13 of 14 overall. What’s incredible is that they’re still in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, three games up on the Detroit Pistons.

            But this might not be the case for long as the Hawks currently have four games left on a western road trip. All told they are 9-21 SU away from home this season and 11-18-1 ATS.

            Denver Nuggets

            Breaking the Eastern Conference’s strangle hold on hottest and coldest teams are the Denver Nuggets. After all, a run that has seen you go 1-9 SU (3-6 ATS) just can’t be ignored.

            There were rumblings that the team and first-year head coach Brian Shaw weren’t getting along with the bench boss going as far as calling out his players after the team’s 117-89 loss to the Chicago Bulls on Feb. 21.

            "I felt like we had some guys that just decided they weren’t going to play tonight," Shaw told reporters after the game. "It’s unfortunate. We’re professionals, and as a staff we have to beg guys to give effort when they play."

            Well the public admonishment seemed to light a fire under exactly no one as the Nuggets have dropped all five since including three in a row at home. Now with two more in the Mile High before a five-game road swing there’s no indication the SU streak will end. However oddsmakers may have begun adjusting to Denver’s downturn as the Nuggets have covered two in row despite losing both SU.

            New York Knicks

            If you thought Knick fans were angry before the All-Star break, imagine the dismay at their team since New Orleans.

            The Knicks are a hideous 1-8 SU (3-6 ATS) over their last nine games, a streak in which they’ve lost by as many as 26 and 23 to Miami and Golden State respectively. The piece de resistance may have been Tuesday night when, after building a 14-point lead on the Detroit Pistons, the Knicks shot only 37 percent and scored 41 points in the second half en route to a 96-85 loss to the league’s 22nd best defense.

            "At this point, man, I’m kind of running out of comments to talk to you guys about," Carmelo Anthony told reporters after the game. "It seemed like it’s becoming repetition, saying the same thing over and over. We got to try to find something else to talk about."

            Knick fans certainly wish that were the case.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/5

              Today's NBA Picks

              Memphis at Brooklyn

              The Nets host a Memphis team that is coming off a 110-104 win over Washington and is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing more than 100 points in the previous game. Memphis is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1). Here are all of today's picks.
              WEDNESDAY, MARCH 5
              Time Posted: 11:00 a.m. EST
              Game 701-702: Indiana at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 122.232; Charlotte 115.618
              Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 200
              Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 189
              Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4 1/2); Over
              Game 703-704: Houston at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Houston 125.174; Orlando 116.683
              Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8 1/2; 214
              Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 208
              Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6 1/2); Over
              Game 705-706: Utah at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Utah 112.586; Washington 124.149
              Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 11 1/2; 192
              Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 8; 199 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Washington (-8); Under
              Game 707-708: Memphis at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 121.300; Brooklyn 117.208
              Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4; 182
              Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 189
              Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1); Under
              Game 709-710: Chicago at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 120.349; Detroit 121.626
              Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 196
              Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 191 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Over
              Game 711-712: Golden State at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 121.003; Boston 114.375
              Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 6 1/2; 193
              Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 199 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-5); Under
              Game 713-714: Sacramento at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.894; Milwaukee 116.881
              Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 201
              Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3 1/2; 205 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+3 1/2); Under
              Game 715-716: New York at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.143; Minnesota 120.374
              Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 217
              Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 8 1/2; 210 1/2
              Dunkel Pick: New York (+8 1/2); Over
              Game 717-718: Dallas at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.034; Denver 111.193
              Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 10; 214
              Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 218
              Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Under
              Game 719-720: Atlanta at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
              Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.793; Portland 120.695
              Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6 224
              Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 8; 217
              Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+8); Over

              Comment

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