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NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/4

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  • NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/4

    NBA

    Hot teams
    -- Spurs won six of last seven games, are 17-13 vs spread on road.
    -- Indiana won its last five games, but is 1-5-1 vs spread in its last seven. Warriors won five of their last seven games.
    -- Miami won its last eight games (6-0-2 vs spread). Rockets won 11 of their last 13 games.
    -- Thunder won last two games, but is 1-4-1 vs spread in last six.
    -- Clippers won/covered their last four games. Phoenix is 5-3 in last eight games, is 19-12-1 vs spread at home.
    -- Lakers won last two games by total of five points.

    Cold Teams
    -- Cleveland lost four of its last six games.
    -- 76ers lost their last 14 games (3-11 vs spread).
    -- Pelicans lost their last eight games (1-6-1 vs spread).

    Series records
    -- Spurs won last eight games with Cleveland, winning last three visits here, by 1-10-35 points.
    -- Pacers won five of last six games with Golden State.
    -- Rockets won their last seven games with Miami (3-4 vs spread).
    -- Thunder won their last nine games with Philly (8-1 vs spread).
    -- Clippers are 4-3 in last seven games with Phoenix, after going 1-13 in previous fourteen series games.
    -- Lakers won ten of last eleven games with New Orleans.

    Totals
    -- Seven of last nine San Antonio games went over the total; seven of last nine Cavalier games stayed under.
    -- Six of last seven Golden State games stayed under.
    -- Five of last seven Houston games went over total.
    -- Eight of last ten Oklahoma City games went over.
    -- Five of last seven Clipper games went over total.
    -- Six of last eight New Orleans games stayed under.

  • #2
    Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/4

    StatFox Super Situations

    LA CLIPPERS at PHOENIX
    Play Against - Any team (LA CLIPPERS) revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )

    LA CLIPPERS at PHOENIX
    Play On - Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season 117-73 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.6% | 48.1 units ) 19-8 this year. ( 70.4% | 12.0 units )

    LA CLIPPERS at PHOENIX
    Play On - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LA CLIPPERS) after 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games 39-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.6% | 23.6 units ) 4-4 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.4 units )

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/4

      7:00 PM
      SAN ANTONIO vs. CLEVELAND
      The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 9 games
      The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
      The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 15 games at home
      Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio

      7:00 PM
      GOLDEN STATE vs. INDIANA
      The total has gone OVER in 16 of Golden State's last 24 games when playing Indiana
      Golden State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
      Indiana is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
      The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indiana's last 24 games when playing Golden State

      8:00 PM
      MIAMI vs. HOUSTON
      Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Houston
      The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
      Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

      8:00 PM
      PHILADELPHIA vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
      The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
      Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
      Oklahoma City is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
      Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

      9:00 PM
      LA CLIPPERS vs. PHOENIX
      LA Clippers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games when playing Phoenix
      The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the LA Clippers last 11 games when playing Phoenix
      Phoenix is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
      The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

      10:30 PM
      NEW ORLEANS vs. LA LAKERS
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
      The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
      LA Lakers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when playing at home against New Orleans

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/4

        Hoop Trends - Tuesday
        By Vince Akins
        VegasInsider.com

        ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

        The Thunder are 10-0 ATS (6.75 ppg) since Nov 11, 2012 at home after a win in which their DPA was positive at home.

        OU TREND OF THE DAY:


        The 76ers are 0-12 OU (-8.96 ppg) since Nov 04, 2012 on the road after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field but did not lose by 40+.

        PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

        The Warriors are 0-11-1 OU (-11.83 ppg) since Dec 07, 2013 after Stephen Curry was the Warriors’ high scorer on the road.

        CHOICE TREND:

        The Suns are 0-12 OU (-9.04 ppg) since Jan 19, 2011 with a total of at least 191 after a win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

        ACTIVE TRENDS:

        The Thunder are 0-7 ATS (-7.79 ppg) since Nov 18, 2009 after Russell Westbrook shot better than 66% from the field in a win.

        The 76ers are 0-6-1 OU (-3.64 ppg) since Mar 10, 2013 on the road after Thaddeus Young was the 76ers’ high scorer in a loss.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/4

          Today's NBA Picks

          Golden State at Indiana

          The Warriors look to bounce back from their 104-98 loss to Toronto on Sunday and come into tonight's contest with Indiana carrying a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU defeat. Golden State is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
          TUESDAY, MARCH 4
          Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST
          Game 501-502: Golden State at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.947; Indiana 123.267
          Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 200
          Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 196 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+5 1/2); Over
          Game 503-504: San Antonio at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.896; Cleveland 115.837
          Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 208
          Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 203
          Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Over
          Game 505-506: Philadelphia at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 102.656; Oklahoma City 118.740
          Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 16; 209
          Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 20 1/2; 219
          Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+20 1/2); Under
          Game 507-508: Miami at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.328; Houston 128.074
          Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 204
          Vegas Line & Total: No Line
          Dunkel Pick: N/A
          Game 509-510: LA Clippers at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 125.999; Phoenix 120.661
          Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 214
          Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 218 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3); Under
          Game 511-512: New Orleans at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.814; LA Lakers 114.151
          Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 1; 204
          Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1 1/2; 210
          Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1 1/2); Under

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/4

            Inside the Paint - Tuesday
            By Chris David
            VegasInsider.com

            We’ve got a little more than six weeks of regular season action remaining in the NBA and if the recent league trends continue, the guys behind the betting counter might close up shop early.

            From last Monday to Sunday, favorites went 43-6 straight up (87.7%). When you look at the overall numbers this season, you can see that this is a big deal considering favorites have won just under 70 percent of their games straight up.

            For our purposes, against the spread (ATS) records are far more important and the favorites didn’t let up in that department either last week. The ‘chalk’ went 31-17-1 (64.5%) over the 7-day span and there were a couple back-door covers that actually hurt this number.

            The bleeding continued for the bookmakers on Monday as the favorites went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The lone team to capture the upset was the L.A. Lakers, who knocked off Portland 107-106 as 12-point underdogs (ML +700). Including last night’s results, favorites are now 50-7 SU and 37-19-1 ATS (66%) over the last eight days.

            Will the underdogs finally bark tonight? I personally believe all things will eventually balance out but I’d still tread lightly for now.

            Let’s take a closer look at Tuesday’s six-game card.

            Golden State (36-24 SU, 29-29 ATS) at Indiana (46-13 SU, 33-25 ATS)

            The one opening number that makes no sense to me for Tuesday’s card is the Pacers -5½ against the Warriors. On Jan. 20, Indiana stopped Golden State 102-94 as a two-point road underdog, which was its fifth win in the last six meetings between the pair. Last season, these teams met in Indiana and the Pacers dropped the Warriors 108-97 as 8½-point favorites. It’s pretty obvious that Indiana is much-improved this season and it’s also clear that Golden State has taken a step back. Yet, the Pacers are laying three points less a year later. See what I mean?

            Golden State has gone 2-2 on its current six-game road trip and the two wins came against the Pistons and Knicks. The losses versus the Bulls and Raptors. On Wednesday, the Warriors wrap up the trip at Boston and based on these tendencies, I’d lean to the visitor.

            Others might argue the line is fair considering Indiana’s current form. Since the All-Star break, the Pacers are 6-1 SU but only 1-5-1 ATS. Plus their last three wins have come by a combined 13 points.

            If you bet numbers and not names, then I’m sure you’re leaning Golden State tonight.

            San Antonio (43-16 SU, 28-31 ATS) at Cleveland (24-37 SU, 28-33 ATS)

            The Spurs opened as 6½-point road favorites and the number has settled at 7½-points on Monday. San Antonio has been a solid investment (19-5 SU, 14-10 ATS) as a road favorite but VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers believes the home ‘dog has value.

            He explained, “The Spurs are coming off three consecutive wins at home, as San Antonio hits the road for just one game tonight at Cleveland before returning home on Thursday to host Miami in a major revenge spot. The Cavs have split eight games since the All-Star break, while owning a 9-3 ATS record since December as a home underdog. Cleveland was blown out at San Antonio the last time these teams met in Texas, as the Cavs should be up for this game against a Spurs' club that could be looking ahead. I'll take the points with the Cavs.”

            Miami (43-14 SU, 27-28 ATS) at Houston (40-19 SU, 30-27 ATS)

            LeBron James dropped a career-high 61 points last night in the Heat’s 124-107 win over the Bobcats, which was the team’s eighth straight win. Bettors riding Miami have been golden lately, watching the club go 6-0-2 ATS during their winning streak.

            On Tuesday, the Heat begin a tough three-game road swing in Houston before heading to San Antonio and Chicago. The line opened pick ‘em but as of Tuesday morning, Miami has been listed as a short road favorite (-1) despite playing on no rest.

            In back-to-back spots this season, Miami has gone 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS, with the losses coming at Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Total players should note that the ‘over’ is 7-3 in these situations for the Heat.

            Houston has started the second-half of the season with a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS mark. The Rockets have only been catching points once this season at home and they defeated the Spurs 97-90 on Jan. 28 as two-point ‘dogs.

            Dwight Howard (back) and Chandler Parsons (flu) are both banged up but listed as ‘probable’ for this matchup.

            Philadelphia (15-45 SU, 22-38 ATS) at Oklahoma City (45-15 SU, 33-27 ATS)

            The Thunder opened as 20-point home favorites over the 76ers and you could argue that the line should be higher. I reached out to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence and asked him to dig up some numbers for me on this high point-spread. According to Marc and his database, he provided the below.

            “There have been a total of 18 games with spreads of -20 or more in the NBA since 1990. The favorites are 9-9 ATS in these games. The highest was Cleveland -24.5 vs. Dallas on 12/23/1990 (won by 31). The most recent was Boston -22.5 over Miami on 3/30/2008 (won by 26).”

            Whenever I see large numbers like this, I tend to stay away or play the favorite only because I never bet on an underdog in any sport unless I could see them winning outright. If you feel the 76ers can pull off the biggest upset of the season in the NBA, then take a shot on the generous money-line odds (40/1 – Bet $100 to win $4,000) at 5Dimes. Oklahoma City has won nine straight (8-1 ATS) against Philadelphia, which includes a 103-91 road win this season on Jan. 25.

            L.A. Clippers (41-20 SU, 35-26 ATS) at Phoenix (35-24 SU, 37-20 ATS)

            This is a nice matchup and the line tells you that it should be a competitive game. The Clippers opened as 3½-point road favorites and they’ll be looking to win and cover their fifth straight game. The Suns opened the second-half of the season with a 3-3 record but they showed some explosiveness over the weekend with back-to-back home wins and covers over the Pelicans (116-104) and Hawks (129-120). These teams met on Dec. 30 from the Staples Center and the Suns hammered the Clippers by 25 points (107-88) as 7½-point road underdogs. Los Angeles guard Jamal Crawford (calf) is expected to miss tonight’s game.

            New Orleans (23-37 SU, 24-33 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (21-39 SU, 32-27 ATS)

            Similar to the Thunder-76ers matchup, I don’t believe you can make an argument for either side. Both teams played Monday and dealing with fatigue hasn’t been good for the pair. The Lakers are 4-8 SU and 7-5 ATS on zero days rest while the Pelicans are 3-12 SU and 5-9-3 ATS.

            The line opened as a pick ‘em and early money moved the Lakers to 2½-point home favorites. Los Angeles did pull off a big upset at Portland last night and has now won two straight. However, make a note that the Lakers haven’t won three in a row since late November.

            New Orleans has dropped eight straight games (1-6-1 ATS), four of the last five by double digits.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/4

              Game of the Day: Heat at Rockets
              By Covers.com

              Miami Heat at Houston Rockets (+1, 210)

              The Houston Rockets are hoping LeBron James left all of his points at home. James will attempt to follow up his career-high 61-point effort on the second night of a back-to-back when the Miami Heat visit the Rockets on Tuesday. The superstar forward went 22-of-33 from the floor against the Charlotte Bobcats and threw in seven rebounds and five assists while posting the highest scoring total in franchise history.

              Houston is capable of putting up some gaudy scoring numbers of its own and might have to turn Tuesday’s contest into a race with the Heat if Dwight Howard, who sat out practice on Monday due to back soreness, can’t go. The Rockets have taken 11 of their last 13, including a 129-103 win at Sacramento last week in which James Harden went off for 43 points in 31 minutes. Harden could have to deal with Dwyane Wade, who watched James’ historic night from the sidelines while resting but is expected to dress on Tuesday.

              LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as a 1-point home underdog at some books. Others waited to post odds due to Dwight Howard's unknown status. The total opened at 210 points.

              COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-14.5) - Houston (-11.5) + Home Court (-3.0) = Pick

              INJURY WATCH: Rockets - Greg Smith (Ques. Knee), Chandler Parsons (Ques. Illness), Dwight Howard (Ques. Neck)

              WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Tough scheduling situation for the Rockets as they will be playing three games in the next four days, including a one-game road trip to Orlando Wednesday which is sandwiched between this big home game against the Heat and another huge home game Friday night versus the Pacers. Unusual last season, as Houston lost both games versus Miami, but the Rockets still covered both as underdogs. Different situation in this year, as they are no longer getting points." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

              WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Both these teams come into this game playing their best basketball of the season. I see this being a good measuring stick game for the Rockets going up against the two-time defending champion Heat." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

              ABOUT THE HEAT (42-14 SU, 26-28-2 ATS, 32-24 O/U): James’ record night was the latest in a string of remarkable performances from the reigning MVP, who is shooting 67.2 percent from the field in three games while wearing a protective mask over his broken nose. “I think what helped was we couldn’t get no stops in the fourth quarter,” James told reporters of his record night. “That allowed me to stay in the game. … I wanted to try to close it out and I was happy I was able to make a few plays to help us win the game.” “King James” has shot 50 percent or better in each of his last eight games and is averaging 35.3 points in that span.

              ABOUT THE ROCKETS (40-19 SU, 30-27-2 ATS, 28-29-2 O/U): Houston is in a battle with the Los Angeles Clippers and the Portland Trail Blazers for the Nos. 3-5 spots in the Western Conference and will face championship contenders Miami, Indiana, Portland and Oklahoma City over the next five games. The Rockets built up a 21-point lead after the first quarter against Detroit on Saturday but had to hold on for a 118-110 win. “I didn’t really like the way we came out in the second half,” Howard told reporters. “I thought we really should have kept the foot on the gas but we didn’t. We allowed them to get back in the game. That’s not what we need to do if we want to be a championship team.”

              TRENDS:


              * Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Houston.
              * Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
              * Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference.
              * Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference.

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