NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/1

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College Basketball: Inside the Stats
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Let’s take inside the stats at what’s happening on the College Hoops and NBA hardwood this season as we enter this weekend’s action.

Note that all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played through Wednesday, February 26 unless noted otherwise.

Home At Last

With college basketball Last Home Game plays right around the corner, here’s a list of teams that are on perfect ATS winning runs on ‘senior night’ in home finales:

Cal Irvine 5-0, Syracuse 7-0, Towson 6-0 and Wisconsin 5-0.

On the flip side here are the teams that have be performed like the Grateful Dead in Last Home Games:

Ball State 0-8, Rice 0-8, Rutgers 0-5 and Southern Miss 0-6.

Situationally Speaking

As the NBA moves past the All Star break and teams begin to jockey for playoff positioning, here’s a look at the best and the worst teams in the league and how they have fared ATS in the four key categories.

Home Favorite
Best: Pacers 18-10-1
Worst: Nuggets 4-12

Home Dog
Best: Cavaliers 10-3
Worst: Knicks 1-9

Road Favorite
Best: Wizards 4-0
Worst: Bulls 2-7-1

Road Dog
Best: Raptors 14-5
Worst: Magic 10-19

Defense Matters

Listed below are the Top 5 college hoops teams on the defensive front, in Defensive Field Goal percentage and Rebound Margin. Look to 'play on' these teams in either revenge or underdog roles:

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
1. SMU 36.8
2. Eastern Michigan 36.9
3. Southern 38.1
4. Arizona 38.1
5. Virginia 38.2

Rebounding Margin
1. Quinnipiac +11.9
2. Kentucky +10.2
3. Arizona +10.0
4. Iowa +9.9
5. Tennessee +8.8

Here is a list of the Top 5 NBA defensive teams

Scoring Defense
1. Pacers 91.1
2. Bulls 92.3
3. Grizzlies 94.6
4. Raptors 96.8
5. Raptors 97.1

Rebounding Margin
1. Pacers +4.6
2. Thunder +4.5
3. Bulls +4.0
5. Rockets +3.6
4. Trailblazers +3.1

Stat Of The Week

Michigan is 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS away in games before Indiana.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/1

StatFox Super Situations

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset win as an underdog 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

BROOKLYN at MILWAUKEE
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season 80-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.5% | 39.3 units ) 5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | -0.6 units )

ORLANDO at MIAMI
Play On - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/1

7:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

7:30 PM
ORLANDO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing Miami
Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games

8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Boston
Indiana is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Boston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston's last 13 games at home

8:00 PM
DETROIT vs. HOUSTON
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

8:30 PM
BROOKLYN vs. MILWAUKEE
Brooklyn is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Milwaukee
Brooklyn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

9:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. MEMPHIS
Cleveland is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Memphis
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Memphis's last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

10:00 PM
DENVER vs. PORTLAND
Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games
Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing Denver
Portland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

10:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SACRAMENTO
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento's last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota

10:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. LA CLIPPERS
New Orleans is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 6 games
LA Clippers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games at home

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/1

Hot teams
-- Miami won its last six games (5-0-1 vs spread).
-- Wizards won last five games, last one in triple OT.
-- Rockets won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Pacers won last three games, are 1-4-1 vs spread in last six.
-- Cavaliers won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Memphis won five of its last seven games.
-- Trailblazers won last four games, covered last three.
-- Minnesota won four of its last five games.
-- Clippers won five of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Magic lost five of its last seven games.
-- 76ers lost their last 12 games (3-9 vs spread).
-- Pistons lost six of their last seven games.
-- Celtics lost five of their last six games.
-- Milwaukee lost seven of last nine games, but covered five of last six.
-- Nets are 3-5 in their last eight road games.
-- Denver lost nine of its last ten games.
-- Sacramento lost six of its last nine games.
-- New Orleans lost its last six games (1-4-1 vs spread).

Series records
-- Heat won its last seven games with Orlando.
-- Wizards lost five of last six visits to Philadelphia.
-- Rockets won their last six games with Detroit.
-- Pacers are 2-0 vs Boston this season, winning by 15-27 points.
-- Nets won their last four games with Milwaukee.
-- Grizzlies won four of last five games with Cleveland.
-- Blazers are 3-0 vs Denver this year, winning by 15-5-5 points.
-- Kings won five of last seven games with Minnesota.
-- Clippers won seven of last eight games with New Orleans.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Orlando-Miami games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Washington-Philly games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Indiana games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Brooklyn games.
-- Five of Milwaukee's last six games went over.
-- Seven of last eight Cleveland games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Denver games stayed under total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Minnesota games.
-- Five of last seven King games went over.
-- 12 of last 18 Pelican-Clipper games went over total.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/1

Today's NBA Picks

Brooklyn at Milwaukee

The Nets head to Milwaukee tonight following a 112-89 win over Denver on Thursday and carrying an 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Brooklyn is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Nets favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-6). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 29 Time Posted: 11:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Washington at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 121.694; Philadelphia 103.370 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 18 1/2; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 11; 213 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-11); Under

Game 503-504: Orlando at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 113.843; Miami 125.129 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 11 1/2; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 14; 201 Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+14); Over

Game 505-506: Detroit at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.518; Houston 128.415 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 15; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 11; 216 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-11); Under

Game 507-508: Indiana at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 121.399; Boston 110.375 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 11; 188 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 192 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7); Under

Game 509-510: Brooklyn at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 119.000; Milwaukee 110.064 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 9; 204 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6; 197 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-6); Over

Game 511-512: Cleveland at Memphis (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 119.973; Memphis 121.951 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 182 Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 187 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+8 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Minnesota at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 122.101; Sacramento 116.817 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 213 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Denver at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 110.690; Portland 119.460 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 9; 215 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 11 1/2; 211 Dunkel Pick: Denver (+11 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: New Orleans at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.647; LA Clippers 124.743 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 9; 203 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 12; 208 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+12); Under