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NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

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  • NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

    Wednesday's Tips
    By Kevin Rogers
    VegasInsider.com

    Warriors at Bulls

    Golden State: 35-22 SU, 27-27-3 ATS
    Chicago: 29-26 SU, 27-28 ATS

    The Warriors continue their six-game road swing on Wednesday, as Golden State looks for its fifth consecutive victory. Mark Jackson's club knocked off the Pistons on Monday as 3½-point favorites, 104-96 to remain undefeated since the All-Star break, while limiting each of their last four opponents to below 99 points. The Warriors overcame an early 16-point deficit the last time they faced the Bulls back on February 6 to rally for a 102-87 home triumph as six-point favorites.

    The Bulls have won nine of their last 10 home matchups with Golden State, while holding the Warriors to 91 points or below eight times. Chicago is riding a four-game SU/ATS winning streak when playing without rest, as the Bulls are coming off Tuesday's contest at Atlanta. The Bulls have won three in a row at the United Center, with all three victories coming by double-digits, but Chicago has dropped each of its last two games in the role of a home underdog.

    Suns at Jazz

    Phoenix: 33-22 SU, 36-18-1 ATS
    Utah: 20-36 SU, 25-28-3 ATS

    The Suns and Jazz meet for the final time in the regular season as Utah goes for the series split. Following a pair of victories by Phoenix in November, the Jazz stunned the Suns right after Thanksgiving in the Valley, 112-104 to cash outright as 8½-point underdogs. Utah snapped a three-game skid in Monday's blowout of Boston, but the Jazz has lost and failed to cover in three of their last four opportunities as a home underdog.

    Phoenix will be playing on no rest following Tuesday's home contest against Minnesota, as Wednesday's game is the lone road venture for the Suns in a nine-game span. Jeff Hornacek's team has fared well on the second of a back-to-back, posting a 7-2 SU/ATS record since losing at home to Utah in late November. In the role of a road favorite, the Suns have shined with a 4-1 SU/ATS record, while scoring at least 112 points in all four wins in this situation.

    Nets at Blazers

    Brooklyn: 26-28 SU, 27-27 ATS
    Portland: 38-18 SU, 30-26 ATS

    The Blazers continue to play without All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who is suffering from a groin injury. Portland owns a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS record with Aldridge out, as the Blazers go for the season sweep of the Nets. The previous matchup between these two teams came back in November at the Barclays Center, as Portland cruised past Brooklyn, 108-98, as the Blazers played with no rest. Terry Stotts' club is in that rest situation again following Tuesday's contest at Denver, as Portland is just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS the last four games on the second of a back-to-back after beginning the season 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS the first 11 opportunities in this scenario.

    The Nets look to capitalize off Sunday's road favorite triumph over the Lakers, as Brooklyn has now alternated wins and losses in each of its last five trips to the court. Jason Kidd's team has lost each of their past three games as an away underdog, while scoring 96 points or fewer in eight of their previous nine opportunities in the road 'dog role. The Nets have taken care of business against unrested clubs since December, posting a 6-1 SU/ATS record when facing teams on the second of a back-to-back.

    Rockets at Clippers

    Houston: 38-18 SU, 29-25-2 ATS
    Los Angeles: 39-20 SU, 33-26 ATS

    Both teams are on the verge of 40 victories, as the Rockets wrap up a five-game West Coast swing. Houston heads to Southern California after Tuesday's contest at Sacramento, as the Rockets have won nine of their past 10 games. Kevin McHale's team is listed as a road underdog for the first time since a January 29 victory at Dallas, a game played without top scorer James Harden. Houston's offense continues to scorch opponents by eclipsing the 101-point mark in eight of the last nine games, but that has resulted in only five 'overs.'

    The Clippers return home following consecutive victories at Oklahoma City and New Orleans, as Los Angeles has now drilled the 'over' in eight of the past nine games. Los Angeles has given up at least 105 points in eight of the last nine, while allowing at least 113 points in each of its past two home contests against Portland and San Antonio. This season, the Clips have beaten the Rockets twice, with both meetings coming back in November. The last time Houston invaded Staples Center on November 4, the Rockets gave up a whooping 137 points, the second-most scored in regulation by a team this season.

  • #2
    Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

    NBA

    Hot teams
    -- Warriors won last four games, all by 9 or less points. Chicago won six of its last seven games.
    -- Mavericks won nine of their last eleven games.
    -- Grizzlies won four of their last five games.
    -- Spurs won three of last four games, are 10-16 vs spread at home.
    -- Portland won last three games, by 8-11-5 points. Nets won six of their last nine games.
    -- Rockets won ten of their last eleven games. Clippers won five of their last seven games.

    Cold Teams
    -- Orlando lost five of last six games; they've lost 16 in row on road, are 0-15-1 vs spread. Last road cover? Dec 16. 76ers lost last 11 games.
    -- Hawks lost nine of their last ten games. Boston lost last five games.
    -- Pelicans lost six of their last seven games.
    -- Lakers lost six of their last seven games (2-5 vs spread).
    -- Oklahoma City lost last two home games, covered one of last four at home. Cavaliers lost last three games, by 7-13-6 points.
    -- Pistons lost five of their last six games.
    -- Utah lost three of its last four games. Suns lost their last two games, by 9-3 points.

    Series records
    -- 76ers lost six of last eight games with Orlando.
    -- Celtics won eight of last eleven games with Atlanta.
    -- Home side won eight of last nine Warrior-Bull games; Golden State lost its last four visits to Chicago.
    -- Mavericks won their last six games with New Orleans.
    -- Lakers lost four of last six games with Memphis.
    -- Thunder lost six of last nine games with Cleveland.
    -- Pistons lost last three visits to Alamo by 20-7-39 points.
    -- Suns lost three of last four visits to Utah.
    -- Nets lost seven of last ten games with Portland.
    -- Clippers won seven of last eight games with Houston.

    Totals
    -- Four of last five Orlando games went over the total.
    -- Last five Atlanta games went over the total.
    -- Five of last six Golden State games stayed under.
    -- Five of last six Dallas games went over the total.
    -- Four of last five Laker games went over the total.
    -- Last six Cleveland games stayed under the total.
    -- Eight of last ten Detroit games went over the total.
    -- Four of last five Utah games went over the total.
    -- Seven of last ten Brooklyn-Portland games went over.
    -- Four of last five Houston games went over total.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

      Game of the Day: Rockets at Clippers
      By Covers.com

      Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5, 220)

      James Harden has proven he’s one of the most explosive scorers in the NBA and the Houston star has quite an act to follow up when the Rockets visit the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. Harden scored a season-high 43 points and also had eight assists and three steals despite sitting out the fourth quarter as Houston thrashed the lowly Sacramento Kings on Tuesday. Los Angeles also has a hot scorer in Jamal Crawford, who has strung together eight straight 20-point outings.

      Crawford made seven 3-pointers while scoring 24 points in Monday’s 123-110 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, one day after he poured in 36 points in a 125-117 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Crawford is averaging 25.8 points during his hot stretch while knocking down 28 3-pointers. The Rockets have won 10 of their last 11 games and are 3-1 entering the finale of a five-game road trip. Harden scored Houston’s final 18 points of the first quarter in the easy 129-103 win over the Kings while falling three points shy of his career high.

      LINE HISTORY: Los Angeles opened as a 5.5-point favorite and dropped as low as -5 at some markets. The total opened as low as 219.5 and moved to 220.

      COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Rockets (-11.5) - Clippers (-12.0) + Home Court (-3.0) = Clippers -3.5

      INJURY WATCH: Rockets - Greg Smith (Ques. - knee). Clippers - J.J. Redick (Out - back)

      WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Houston will be playing on a back-to-back road set and it will also be their fifth game over an eight-day stretch versus the Clippers. The Rockets will be playing with double revenge after losing by 19 and 13 points to L.A. over a five-day stretch in November." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

      WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Two of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA and only a half game separates them in the standings. This should be a fun up-tempo game to watch." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

      ABOUT THE ROCKETS (38-18 SU, 29-25-2 ATS, 26-28 O/U): Harden joins Hakeem Olajuwon (1996) and Clyde Drexler (1995) as the only Houston players with at least 43 points, eight assists and three steals in the same game over the past 25 years. Afterward, he was more interested in discussing what the win meant to the team than dissecting his personal exploits. “Those are the type of wins that we need, especially late in the season, to lock down and focus,” Harden said. The All-Star guard is averaging 33.8 points over the last five games and has scored 35 or more points in three of them.

      ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (39-20 SU, 33-26 ATS, 35-24 O/U): Forward Glen Davis will make his debut with the team after reaching buyout terms with the Orlando Magic late last week and signing with Los Angeles. The presence of Doc Rivers, who coached Davis in Boston, and point guard Chris Paul were pivotal factors in the decision, and Paul is looking forward to seeing what Davis can add to the team. “I think ‘Big Baby’ is going to bring energy, excitement and passion,” Paul told reporters. “Obviously, I know him a little bit better than some of the other guys and I’m just excited about him. He’s a great personality and competitor.”

      TRENDS:

      * Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles.
      * Rockets are 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Los Angeles.
      * Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
      * Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

      COVERS CONSENSUS:
      Bettors are split on this game with 50 percent of bets on both sides. 57 percent of bets are siding with the Over.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

        Today's NBA Picks

        Houston at LA Clippers

        The Clippers host a Houston team that is coming off a 129-103 blowout win over Sacramento and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU victory of more than 10 points. LA is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
        WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 26
        Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST
        Game 701-702: Orlando at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 109.103 Philadelphia 110.221
        Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 216
        Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3 1/2; 212
        Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over
        Game 703-704: Atlanta at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 113.793; Boston 112.375
        Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 196
        Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2; 200 1/2
        Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2); Under
        Game 705-706: Cleveland at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 113.796; Oklahoma City 129.600
        Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 16; 210
        Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 13 1/2; 202 1/2
        Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-13 1/2); Over
        Game 707-708: New Orleans at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.814; Dallas 126.113
        Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 11 1/2; 199
        Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7; 204 1/2
        Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under
        Game 709-710: LA Lakers at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 112.382; Memphis 121.049
        Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 187
        Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 11 196 1/2
        Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+11); Under
        Game 711-712: Golden State at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.852; Chicago 125.349
        Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 183
        Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 3 1/2; 187 1/2
        Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under
        Game 713-714: Detroit at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.095; San Antonio 125.496
        Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 12 1/2; 215
        Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 210 1/2
        Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-10 1/2); Over
        Game 715-716: Phoenix at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.657; Utah 119.451
        Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 1; 211
        Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 202
        Dunkel Pick: Utah (+2); Over
        Game 717-718: Brooklyn at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 118.518; Portland 125.444
        Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 7; 208
        Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3; 203 1/2
        Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3); Over
        Game 719-720: Houston at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
        Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.448; LA Clippers 129.683
        Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 217
        Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 221
        Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-5 1/2); Under

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