Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

[TheGame]

Game of the Day: Oklahoma at Kansas
By Covers.com

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks (-11, 158)

Kansas put up one of the most impressive wins of the Big 12 season with an 85-54 drubbing of a ranked Texas squad Saturday to push its winning streak to three. The Jayhawks will quickly turn the page and try to clinch at least a tie for the Big 12 regular-season title when they host Oklahoma on Monday. The Sooners are one of three teams three games behind Kansas with four games to play.

The Jayhawks, who have as much talent as any team in the country with Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid rocketing up NBA draft boards, put it all together against the Longhorns on both ends of the floor. Wiggins buried three 3-pointers and added several highlight-worthy dunks as Kansas got out in transition and outscored Texas 26-0 on fast-break points. Oklahoma will not be afraid to get out and run with the Jayhawks; the Sooners nearly upset the Jayhawks at home on Jan. 8 before falling 90-83.

LINE HISTORY: Kansas opened as a 11-point home favorite. Early odds in Las Vegas suggested a total of 158 points.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oklahoma (-10.1) - Kansas (-16.7) + Home Court (-3.0) = Kansas -9.6

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This has been a high-scoring series with seven of the past nine meetings going Over during the past six years, including 173 total points in the meeting last month. Not a surprise, as these are two of the best offensive teams in the nation and Oklahoma has been a weak defensive team this season, allowing 77 points per game." -- Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (20-7 SU, 14-10-1 ATS, 14-10 O/U): The Sooners are among the nation’s leaders in scoring average at 82.8 and are coming off back-to-back wins, including an 86-73 triumph over Kansas State on Saturday. Cameron Clark went for 11 points on 5-of-9 shooting but has not reached 20 points since matching a career high with 32 in the loss to Kansas on Jan. 8. The senior swingman spent that game slashing to the basket against the Jayhawks’ bigger frontline but gave up enough size that Kansas posted a 36-22 rebounding advantage.

ABOUT KANSAS (21-6 SU, 14-12-1 ATS, 16-10 O/U): The Jayhawks needed only nine points from Wiggins and six from Embiid in the first meeting as fellow freshman Wayne Selden Jr. (24 points) carried the scoring load. Wiggins keyed a 32-5 run in the first half against the Longhorns and likes to get going early on offense. “When I start early it builds up my confidence in my game,” Wiggins told reporters. "Especially if I get a three, I feel like I’m on fire automatically.” Selden showed off his skills as a distributor with a season-high seven assists in the win over Texas, and Frank Mason Jr. rounds out the freshman quartet with long-range shooting off the bench.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Sooners are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Sooners are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Kansas.

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

NBA

Hot teams
-- Warriors won four of their last five games.
-- Mavericks won eight of their last ten games.
-- Clippers won four of their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Bucks lost six of their last seven games. 76ers lost their last 10 games (2-5 vs spread in last seven).
-- Detroit lost four of its last five games.
-- New York lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Pelicans lost five of their last six games.
-- Celtics lost five of last six games, are 16-13 vs spread on road. Jazz lost its last three games, by 6-8-17 points.

Series records
-- Home side won last three Milwaukee-Philly games.
-- Warriors won their last five games with Detroit.
-- Knicks are 3-2 in last five games with Dallas; Mavericks lost last two visits to Manhattan, by 7-10 points.
-- Clippers won six of last seven games with New Orleans.
-- Celtics won their last six games with Utah.

Totals
-- Three of last four Milwaukee games went over total.
-- Eight of last nine Piston games went over total; four of Warriors' last five games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Clipper games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Boston games stayed under the total.

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

College Basketball Information

Not only has Syracuse lost its last two games after its 25-0 start, they scored 61 or less points in each of last six games; Orange are 4-0 as home favorites, winning four road wins by 10+ points. ACC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 8-13 vs spread. Maryland didn't play on Saturday while Syracuse was losing at Duke; Terps are 5-1 at home in ACC, with only loss by four points to Pitt.

Oklahoma State got Smart back Saturday, snapped 7-game skid with big win over Texas Tech; State won its first three Big X games with TCU by 18-17-32 points; they drilled the Horned Frogs 82-50 (-20) at home Jan 15- they're 1-6 on Big X road, 0-4 as road favorites, with only road win by point at West Virginia. TCU is 0-14 in Big X, 2-5 as home dogs, with five of last six home losses by 11+. Big X home dogs are 15-7-1.

Kansas (-6) ended first half on 11-1 run, won 90-83 at Oklahoma Jan 8, its 11th win in last 12 games with Sooners, who lost last six visits here, with five losses by 13+ points. Jayhawks are 4-1-2 as home favorites, with six wins by 10+ points. Big X double digit home favorites are 5-10 vs spread. Oklahoma won three of last four games, covered six of its last eight; they covered four of their last five away games.

Samford swept Citadel LY by 4-12 points, after losing previous five vs Bulldogs; Samford lost four of last six games, is 1-6 in conference away games, with only win by 8 at Furman. Citadel is 1-24 vs D-I teams; its only D-I was November 12; three of their last four Southern Conference home losses were by 13+ points. SoCon home underdogs of 5 or less points are 3-12 against the spread.

Portland State (-2) beat Eastern Washington 92-83 Jan 27, Vikings made 21-32 (65.6%) of shots inside arc- they won 10 of last 12 series games, but lost of last three visits here. Big Sky home favorites of 6+ points are 13-19 vs spread. Eagles won five of last six games, winning last three at home by 4-13-19 points- they're 2-1-1 as home favorites. Vikings lost four of last five games, are 2-4 vs spread as road underdogs.

Elon won its last three games with Furman by 7-14-4 points; Phoenix is 4-2 in its last six visits here. Elon won its last seven games (5-2 against spread), winning last three road games by 13-7-5 points. Furman won two of last three games, covered four of last five; they're 0-3 as a SoCon home dog- faves covered five of their six conference home tilts. SoCon home underdogs of more than 5 points are 0-6 vs spread.

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

StatFox Super Situations

OKLAHOMA at KANSAS
Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA) revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent 29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

SYRACUSE at MARYLAND
Play On - Any team (MARYLAND) after 3 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games 112-97 over the last 5 seasons. ( 53.6% | 53.4 units ) 6-9 this year. ( 40.0% | 1.0 units )

OKLAHOMA at KANSAS
Play Against - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (KANSAS) after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season 48-21 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.6% | 24.9 units ) 12-9 this year. ( 57.1% | 2.1 units )

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

7:00 PM
ELON vs. FURMAN
Elon is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Furman
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Elon's last 5 games when playing on the road against Furman
Furman is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Furman is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games

7:00 PM
SYRACUSE vs. MARYLAND
Syracuse is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Syracuse is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Maryland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Maryland's last 6 games

7:00 PM
OKLAHOMA STATE vs. TCU
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma State's last 9 games on the road
Oklahoma State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
TCU is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma State
TCU is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

7:05 PM
SAMFORD vs. THE CITADEL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Samford's last 7 games on the road
Samford is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The Citadel is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Samford
The Citadel is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
CHICAGO STATE vs. EASTERN ILLINOIS
Chicago State is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Eastern Illinois is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Eastern Illinois is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games

9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA vs. KANSAS
Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas
Oklahoma is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas
Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma

9:05 PM
PORTLAND STATE vs. EASTERN WASHINGTON
Portland State is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Portland State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Eastern Washington is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Portland State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Washington's last 5 games when playing Portland State

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

StatFox Super Situations

MILWAUKEE at PHILADELPHIA
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days 67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units ) 4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.7 units )

BOSTON at UTAH
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (UTAH) revenging a loss vs opponent, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival 108-61 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.9% | 44.7 units ) 6-4 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.3 units )

LA CLIPPERS at NEW ORLEANS
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ORLEANS) after 2 or more consecutive losses, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team 220-134 since 1997. ( 62.1% | 72.6 units ) 11-3 this year. ( 78.6% | 7.7 units )

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

7:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Milwaukee is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Milwaukee is 3-21 SU in its last 24 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home

7:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Golden State is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Golden State

7:30 PM
DALLAS vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
New York is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
New York is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Dallas

8:00 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. NEW ORLEANS
LA Clippers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
LA Clippers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 17-7 SU in their last 24 games when playing LA Clippers

9:00 PM
BOSTON vs. UTAH
Boston is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Boston is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Utah is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah's last 12 games at home

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

NCAA Basketball Picks

Syracuse at Maryland

The Orange look to snap their two-game losing streak and come into Maryland tonight with a 5-0-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Syracuse is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Orange favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 24 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 711-712: Syracuse at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 73.187; Maryland 67.202 Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 6 Vegas Line: Syracuse by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-3 1/2)

Game 713-714: Oklahoma State at TCU (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 68.363; TCU 54.183 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 14 Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 11 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-11 1/2)

Game 715-716: Oklahoma at Kansas (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 66.153; Kansas 81.277 Dunkel Line: Kansas by 15 Vegas Line: Kansas by 11 Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-11)

Game 717-718: Samford at The Citadel (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Samford 45.300; The Citadel 38.152 Dunkel Line: Samford by 7 Vegas Line: Samford by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Samford (-3 1/2)

Game 719-720: Portland State at Eastern Washington (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 45.425; Eastern Washington 56.741 Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 11 1/2 Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 7 Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (-7)

Game 721-722: Elon at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Elon 51.468; Furman 41.685 Dunkel Line: Elon by 10 Vegas Line: Elon by 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Elon (-7 1/2)

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

Today's NBA Picks

Golden State at Detroit

The Warriors come into tonight's contest with Detroit carrying a 14-3-1 ATS record in their last 18 Monday games. Golden State is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 24 Time Posted: 9:30 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 108.908 Philadelphia 103.827 Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5; 201 Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 206 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1); Under

Game 703-704: Dallas at New York (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.113; New York 115.709 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6 1/2; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 204 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Over

Game 705-706: Golden State at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.947; Detroit 118.001 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 212 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 2 1/2; 208 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: LA Clippers at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 124.683; New Orleans 118.821 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6; 200 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3 1/2; 205 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Boston at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 114.394; Utah 114.545 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 185 Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 3; 189 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+3); Under

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

Hoop Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

The Pistons are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.88 ppg) since Jan 25, 2009 at home when they had at least ten fewer assists in their previous game than in the game before.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Mavericks are 0-10 OU (-12.75 ppg) since Dec 13, 2004 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win on the road in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Pistons are 12-0 OU (9.58 ppg) since Mar 31, 2013 after Greg Monroe had a double double in a loss.

CHOICE TREND:

The Jazz are 10-0-1 ATS (6.41 ppg) since Jan 16, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (6.00 ppg) since Feb 22, 2012 on the road after Klay Thompson shot worse than 33% from the field at home.

The Jazz are 0-6 OU (-14.17 ppg) since Jan 23, 2013 at home after Enes Kanter shot better than 66% from the field at home.

[TheGame]

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/24

Inside the Paint - Monday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

As we approach the final quarter of the season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape in both conferences.

In the Eastern Conference, you can argue that the top six spots are locked up and you can certainly make a case for Charlotte as the seventh team. The Bobcats have opened the second-half of the season with four straight wins and they’ll be off for six days before starting a three-game road set against the Spurs, Thunder and Heat.

Just behind the Bobcats is Atlanta, who continues to be plagued by injuries. Despite being short-handed, the Hawks are 3½-games up on the Pistons. After Detroit, you have another pair of underachieving clubs in Cleveland and New York, who are barely hanging onto their playoff hopes.

The top five spots in the Western Conference look solid, with the Thunder leading the way. The real fun will be the final three playoff berths, which should be decided between the Suns, Warriors, Mavericks and Grizzlies.

Monday’s card only has five games and none of the matchups are fantastic but you can bet on them and I’ll try to help you win.

Let’s break ‘em down.

Milwaukee (10-45 SU, 22-33 ATS) at Philadelphia

This game is clearly unwatchable and certainly going to be tough to handicap. Oddsmakers opened the 76ers as 1½-point home favorites but the number has been flipped to a pick ‘em and a few outfits have made the Bucks favorites, something that has only occurred twice this season.

This will be the third encounter between the cellar dwellers this season. The 76ers captured a 115-107 win on Nov. 22 at home while the Bucks notched a 116-106 home victory on Dec. 21. The ‘over’ easily cashed in both games.

I usually lean ‘over’ whenever you have a meaningless matchup between clubs that won’t be making the playoffs and that’s probably the best look here, especially when you look at the defense of the 76ers (110.7 PPG) and Bucks (101.9 PPG).

Dallas (34-23 SU, 32-25 ATS) at New York

The Mavericks have been installed as 3½-point road favorites over the Knicks and you could argue the line should be higher. The Knicks have been awful lately, losing three of their last four and eight of 10. Meanwhile, Dallas has started the second-half with a 2-1 record behind an offense that is averaging 114.3 points per game.

We do realize that the wins for Dallas came against the Pistons and 76ers, which is something it has been doing all season. The Mavericks have gone 17-8 SU and 16-9 ATS against the East this season while New York is 6-15 SU and 8-13 ATS versus the West. Surprisingly, the Knicks defeated the Mavericks 92-80 on Jan. 5 as 6½-point road underdogs.

Tonight’s total is hovering around 204 points. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four meetings between the pair. I'm not sure how much stock any of you put into officials but referee Eric Lewis is on the hardwood for this game and he's seen the 'over' go 34-10 (77%) this season.

Golden State (34-22 SU, 26-27 ATS) at Detroit

As mentioned above, the Pistons are still in the playoff race but this is a tough club to bet on lately. Detroit is 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last five games and three of those loss came at home.

Including tonight’s matchup against the Warriors, the next three games for the Pistons will be against the West, which isn’t a good thing. Detroit has gone 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS in non-conference games, three of those wins coming at home. Total bettors should be aware that the ‘over’ has gone 18-2 (90%) in Detroit’s games versus the West this season.

Golden State defeated Detroit 113-95 on Nov. 12 as a nine-point home favorite. Including that win, the Warriors have won five in a row against the Pistons, two of those wins coming at The Palace. The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 during this span.

L.A. Clippers (37-20 SU, 31-26 ATS) at New Orleans

Possible letdown spot for the Clippers, who beat the Thunder 125-117 on the road yesterday. Despite that win, Doc Rivers’ club is just 14-15 as a visitor this season.

Along with the letdown, fatigue could be a factor for the Clips as well. Los Angeles has gone 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS on zero days rest this season and that includes a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS mark in their last five back-to-back situations.

New Orleans has opened the second-half with three consecutive losses. However, the three setbacks came by a combined 10 points, which tells you that the Pelicans have been competitive and a lot of that is attributed to All-Star Anthony Davis.

The Clippers have won four straight (3-1) encounters against the Pelicans, which includes a 108-95 victory on Dec. 18 as 9½-point home favorites from the Staples Center. Three of the last four in this series has gone ‘under’ the number.

Boston (19-38 SU, 27-29 ATS) at Utah

The late-night battle takes us to Salt Lake City and I’m surprised the Jazz are only three-point favorites. Utah isn’t a great team by any means and it has opened the second-half with three loss in a row but the Celtics have dropped four straight, they’re short-handed and they’ve been atrocious in non-conference action.

This season, the Celtics have gone 4-21 SU and 11-13-1 ATS against the West and all four wins came at home. Quite the opposite, the Jazz are a respectable 9-10 SU and 8-11 ATS versus the East.

Different teams on the hardwood for this matchup but bettors should make a note that Boston has won seven straight (6-0-1 ATS) in this series and that includes a 97-87 win this season on Nov. 6.