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Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

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  • Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

    NBA

    Hot teams
    -- Pacers won five of their last seven games.
    -- Cleveland won/covered its last four games.
    -- Raptors won six of last nine games (6-2-1 vs spread).
    -- Detroit won three of its last four games. Charlotte covered five of its last seven.
    -- Grizzlies won three of their last four games.
    -- Magic won three of its last four games.
    -- Miami won eight of its last ten games. Dallas won six of last seven.
    -- Spurs won five of their last seven games. Clippers won their last three games, scoring 121 ppg.

    Cold Teams
    -- Hawks lost their last five games (0-5 vs spread).
    -- 76ers lost their last eight games (2-6 vs spread).
    -- Wizards lost four of their last five games.
    -- Knicks lost five of their last six games.
    -- Bucks lost 19 of last 21 games, covered five of last six.
    -- Denver lost its last four games, all by 17+ points. Suns lost three of their last four games.

    Series records
    -- Pacers won three of last four games with Indiana.
    -- Home side won six of last seven Cleveland-Philly games.
    -- Raptors won last three games with Wizards by 10-8-13 points.
    -- Pistons won eight of last ten games with Charlotte.
    -- Knicks lost three of their last four games with Memphis.
    -- Magic won last three games with Milwaukee by 10-3-11 points.
    -- Heat won their last five games with Dallas.
    -- Suns are 3-0 vs Dallas this year, winning by 11-4-14 points.
    -- Clippers lost three in row, 19 of last 23 games vs San Antonio.

    Totals
    -- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under total.
    -- Six of last seven Cleveland-Philly games stayed under.
    -- Six of last seven Raptor-Wizard games stayed under.
    -- 14 of last 17 Charlotte-Detroit games went over.
    -- Seven of last ten New York games went over total; last four Memphis games stayed under.
    -- Seven of last ten Orlando games stayed under.
    -- Last seven Miami-Dallas games went over the total.
    -- Five of last seven Phoenix-Dallas games went over.
    -- Five of last six San Antonio games went over total.

  • #2
    Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

    Dave's Essler

    CBB Tuesday Work
    Villanova at Providence: I wonder where Villanova's heads are at after the Creighton beating. Are they now vulnerable or did the just hit the Blue Jays at the wrong time. Certainly lean Providence to avenge another beating Villanova game them as well, and their stock may be back on the uptick after a few road losses. Friars have the size, but don't defend the perimeter too well, so they may need to work hard to slow this game down. I'd lean to either 'Nova and over, or Friars under. IMO the line movement in the total may be the key. Friars can still get a first round bye in the Conference Tournament, but their bench is pretty thin, so it may well get back to the pace of this game. Maybe Providence 1H.

    Texas at Iowa State: Clearly Iowa State will be the public side here, so I'll look to back the Horns, probably. They lost to ISU at home and actually only sit a game behind Kansas in the Conference. However, they play the Jayhawks on the road Saturday, which is a factor, especially with them being so young. They do have a huge length advantage over ISU, so I can see a scenario where the Horns get a fair bit if second chance points. They do have three road wins in Conference, so this wouldn't be a stretch, and they do get to the line enough to where if ISU's thinner bench gets in foul trouble, Texas could hang.

    Kentucky at Mississippi: Mississippi hasn't lost a conference home game, but they've play the second weakest SEC schedule. Two weeks ago they hung with the 'Cats in Lexington for a half before getting blown out. And in that game Kentucky only shot 2-13 from deep, but simply did not miss from inside, and went to the FT 26 more times. Mississippi has another home game Saturday against Florida, so where is the focus here. All the teams that have beaten Kentucky on the road this season have also been up-tempo teams, which the Rebels are. Even the last two road losses at UGA and at Auburn were both close games, so perhaps they're not playing as bad as the record might indicate. My biggest issue with the Rebels is they don't rebound defensively very well at all, but given the fact that they play defense, I can see this total being to high.

    Kansas at Texas Tech: Don't sleep on Tubby Smith here. They've been playing pretty well and haven't been blown out in many games. At home, if they can slow this game down to their pace (slow) they've got a shot. Let's not forget how young Kansas actually is, and it's getting to "that point" in the season where people like Wiggins are playing minutes well beyond what they played in High School a year ago. If any of the Tech players have memories, Kansas hammered them twice last season, so at the start they should have some confidence. Perhaps Tech 1H as well. If Kansas does have a weakness it's not creating many turnovers, which could help the Red Raiders keep this game lower scoring, so there's a case here to fade Kansas, especially given that their only threat in the Conference is Texas (for the regular season title) and they play Texas Saturday.

    Iowa at Indiana: Clearly Indiana has fallen out of any favor they might have been in at one point, but they're not as bad as the team that let Purdue roll them Saturday. I almost think the quick turnaround benefits them in some way, and they did beat both Michigan and Wisconsin at home. Iowa is not going to catch Michigan or Michigan State for one of the top two spots in the Conference Tournament, so is really playing for seeding here, in reality. They obvious key to me is whether the Hoosiers can protect the ball, which has been a problem for them. I'd like to think this game may go over, although it always depends on the number. Simple reason being that it'll be a fast paced game, both teams get to the line a lot, and shoot well from it.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

      Tuesday's Tip Sheet
      By David Schwab
      VegasInsider.com

      The men’s college basketball season continues to grind on and this is the time of the year where winning on the road gets tougher and tougher for any team in the nation no matter how much of a mismatch a game may appear to be on paper. For this Tuesday’s betting tip sheet, we will take a closer look at three conference showdowns that could have trap written all over it if the road favorite takes its eye off the ball.

      No. 15 Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers

      Iowa handled its latest test on the road with an 82-70 victory over Penn State this past Saturday as a six-point favorite to improve to 8-3 against the spread in 11 games played away from home this season. The Hawkeyes are 8-4 both SU and ATS in the Big Ten and the total has gone OVER in their last four conference games.

      They remain one of the highest scoring teams in the nation with 83.6 points a game and they are shooting a respectable 47 percent from the field. Iowa has also done an excellent job at controlling the boards with an average of 43 rebounds which is the third-highest total in the country. While things continue to move in the right direction, this team is still just 4-3 SU in its last seven games and if it is not careful it could get caught looking ahead to Saturday’s showdown at home against No. 16 Wisconsin.

      The wheels have come unglued for an Indiana team that appeared to be in position to make some noise in the Big Ten this year after going 10-3 SU in nonconference play. The Hoosiers fell to 4-8 SU in conference play with an 82-64 loss to Purdue as one-point road underdogs this past Saturday. They have now failed to cover in four of their last five games while going just 2-6 SU in their last eight contests.

      With the exception of the 82 points it gave up against the Boilermakers, defense has not really been the issue for Indiana over its previous seven games after holding teams to an average of 59.3 PPG. The problem has been an offense that could only muster 58.9 PPG during this same stretch as opposed to a season average of 73.4 PPG.

      The Hawkeyes opened as 3½-point road favorites for this matchup and the numbre quickly jumped to 4½.

      Iowa lost both meetings last season SU, but it comes into this matchup with a 7-1 mark ATS in the last eight games between the two. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.

      No. 14 Virginia Cavaliers at Virginia Tech Hokies

      Virginia has very quietly worked its way up the national rankings while remaining just a half a game in back of No. 1 Syracuse for first place in the ACC standings with a conference record of 12-1. The Cavaliers have won their last eight games and they have covered in 11 of their 13 games against the ACC. The lone SU loss was a 69-65 setback to Duke on Jan. 13 as six-point road underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games.

      This is by no means one of the more explosive teams in the ACC with an average of 66.1 PPG and a field-goal percentage of 44.8, but Virginia does know how to play defense. So much so that it is ranked first in the nation in points allowed (55.6). It has also done a decent job under the boards with 36.4 rebounds a game.

      It has been a rough season for the Hokies with just two victories in their first 12 ACC contests. They have been beaten by 20 points or more in four of their last six games including a 65-45 loss to Virginia on Jan. 25 as 16½-point road underdogs. Virginia Tech is 2-5 ATS in its last seven conference games and the total has stayed UNDER in 13 of its last 14 outings.

      The total in the first meeting against the Cavaliers stayed UNDER a closing line of 123 points, which should not come as all that big of a surprise. The Hokies are averaging 65.8 PPG and shooting just 41 percent from the field. They are allowing an average of 66.1 PPG on their home court.

      Virginia comes into this in-state rivalry as an 11½-point road favorite over the Hokies.

      The favorite in this matchup is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings. Virginia has beaten the Hokies SU in six of the last seven games and it is 5-1-1 ATS.

      No. 5 Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech

      Duke has lost three of its first 12 conference games and all of the setbacks came on the road. It had to grind-out a two-point 69-67 win over Maryland this past Saturday as a 13½-point home favorite. The Blue Devils run the risk of being a bit distracted against the Yellow Jackets with a Thursday night trip to Chapel Hill looming large. This will be a make-up date for last Wednesday’s game against North Carolina that was unexpectedly snowed-out. Duke is 7-4 ATS on the road this season and the total has gone OVER in five of six road games with a posted line.

      Freshman phenom Jabari Parker continues to lead Duke in both points (19.3) and rebounds (8.5) and he has taken things up a notch in his past three outings with an average of 24.3 PPG and 10.7 RPG. The Blue Devils are averaging 81.7 PPG and they have exceeded that total in three of their last four games.

      Georgia Tech has been all over the board in the ACC this season with a win following two-straight losses for an overall record of 4-8. If this pattern were to continue it would stand to reason that the Yellow Jackets should lose on Tuesday and this Saturday at home against Clemson after beating Boston College 74-71 last Thursday at home in a game that ended as a PUSH. They are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six games.

      This will be the Yellow Jackets second meeting against Duke this season after getting hammered 79-57 on Jan. 7 as 15 ½-point road underdogs. They come into the back-end of this season’s home-and-home series averaging 67.8 PPG and shooting 43.8 percent from the field. Defensively, they are holding opponents to an average of 65.4 PPG on their home court.

      The Blue Devils will head into McCamish Pavilion as 10½-point road favorites over Georgia Tech.

      Duke has won nine of the last 10 meetings SU, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against the Yellow Jackets. The total stayed UNDER the 146-point closing line in the first game this season and it has now stayed UNDER in 13 of the last 16 meetings.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

        Game of the Day: Spurs at Clippers
        By Covers.com

        San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 211)

        The Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs have yet to play a close contest against one another this season entering their final matchup of the regular season in Los Angeles on Tuesday. The Clippers routed the Spurs 115-92 at home on Dec. 16 and it was San Antonio’s time to cruise to an easy victory when it produced a 116-92 home win on Jan. 4. The Spurs have the second-best record in the Western Conference while the Clippers possess the fourth-best mark.

        Los Angeles point guard Chris Paul returned from a shoulder injury to play in the final two games before the break and he displayed that he’s back in form by scoring 20 points on 10-of-15 shooting and notching 12 assists in last Wednesday’s victory over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Clippers have received terrific play from All-Star power forward Blake Griffin and have won their last three games. San Antonio has persevered through a slew of injuries and stands 4-2 on the nine-game rodeo trip that runs through Feb. 21.

        LINE HISTORY: Books opened Los Angeles as low as -4.5 which was bet up to -5. The total opened 210, climbed quickly to 211.5, then came back down to 211.

        COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Spurs (-13.0) - Clippers (12.5) + Home Court (-3.0) = Clippers -2.5

        INJURY WATCH: Spurs - Manu Ginobili (Probable, hamstring), Tony Parker (Ques, hand), Tiago Splitter (Ques, calf), Kawhi Leonard (Out, hand). Clippers - Willie Green (Ques, hip), J.J. Redick (Out, back)

        WHAT SHARPS SAY: "With Oklahoma City having emerged as the clear number one team in the West, this matchup will go a long way in determining just who is number two." - Covers Expert Bryan Power.

        ABOUT THE SPURS (38-15 SU, 25-28-0 ATS, 31-21-1 O/U): Point guard Tony Parker is batting back and hand issues and he is expected to play after making a brief cameo in Sunday’s All-Star Game. Parker missed the final game prior to the break and the Spurs also figure to be without center Tiago Splitter (shin) for the fourth straight game. Guard Manu Ginobili (hamstring) and forward Kawhi Leonard (broken finger) remain sidelined as players like Nando de Colo, Cory Joseph and Patty Mills receive more minutes.

        ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (37-18 SU, 31-24-0 ATS, 31-24-0 O/U): Griffin scored 38 points on 19-of-23 shooting in the All-Star Game and scored 20 or more points in 13 consecutive games prior to the break. Griffin stepped up his scoring when Paul was sidelined and he is averaging a career-best 24.2 points. “I’ve really just tried to expand my game every year,” said Griffin, “and tried to add things and improve upon things that I need to improve on and even improve upon the things that I do well.” Griffin is averaging 23 points in the two games against San Antonio this season.

        TRENDS:

        * Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
        * Under is 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings in Los Angeles.
        * Spurs are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles.
        * Spurs are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.
        * Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

        COVERS CONSENSUS:
        56 percent of bets are on Spurs +5 while 58 percent are on Over 211.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

          NCAA Basketball Picks

          Villanova at Providence

          The Friars host a Villanova team that is coming off a 101-80 loss at Creighton and is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Providence is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Providence (+5). Here are all of today's games.
          TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
          Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
          Game 519-520: George Washington at Richmond (7:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 65.128; Richmond 63.876
          Dunkel Line: George Washington by 1
          Vegas Line: Richmond by 2
          Dunkel Pick: George Washington (+2)
          Game 521-522: Wake Forest at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 56.987; Maryland 69.989
          Dunkel Line: Maryland by 13
          Vegas Line: Maryland by 10 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-10 1/2)
          Game 523-524: NC State at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: NC State 63.634; Clemson 65.363
          Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1 1/2
          Vegas Line: Clemson by 4
          Dunkel Pick: NC State (+4)
          Game 525-526: Texas at Iowa State (7:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Texas 68.463; Iowa State 74.335
          Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 6
          Vegas Line: Iowa State by 4 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-4 1/2)
          Game 527-528: Villanova at Providence (7:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 69.808; Providence 68.323
          Dunkel Line: Villanova by 1 1/2
          Vegas Line: Villanova by 5
          Dunkel Pick: Providence (+5)
          Game 529-530: Kentucky at Mississippi (7:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 73.034; Mississippi 66.014
          Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7
          Vegas Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-4 1/2)
          Game 531-532: South Florida at Louisville (7:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 57.442; Louisville 74.717
          Dunkel Line: Louisville by 17 1/2
          Vegas Line: Louisville by 22 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+22 1/2)
          Game 533-534: Detroit at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 54.645; Illinois-Chicago 50.552
          Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4
          Vegas Line: Detroit by 2
          Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2)
          Game 535-536: Bradley at Southern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 56.296; Southern Illinois 60.457
          Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 4
          Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 7 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+7 1/2)
          Game 537-538: Missouri State at Illinois State (8:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 53.854; Illinois State 61.144
          Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 7 1/2
          Vegas Line: Illinois State by 5
          Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-5)
          Game 539-540: Kansas at Texas Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 75.802; Texas Tech 64.834
          Dunkel Line: Kansas by 11
          Vegas Line: Kansas by 7 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-7 1/2)
          Game 541-542: Virginia at Virginia Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 72.564; Virginia Tech 53.015
          Dunkel Line: Virginia by 19 1/2
          Vegas Line: Virginia by 11
          Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-11)
          Game 543-544: Iowa at Indiana (9:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 70.737; Indiana 71.913
          Dunkel Line: Indiana by 1
          Vegas Line: Iowa by 3 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3 1/2)
          Game 545-546: Duke at Georgia Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Duke 77.199; Georgia Tech 63.306
          Dunkel Line: Duke by 14
          Vegas Line: Duke by 11
          Dunkel Pick: Duke (-11)
          Game 547-548: Northern Iowa at Drake (9:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 57.312; Drake 54.051
          Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 3 1/2
          Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 1
          Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-1)
          Game 549-550: Butler at St. John's (9:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Butler 59.300; St. John's 74.541
          Dunkel Line: St. John's by 15
          Vegas Line: St. John's by 9
          Dunkel Pick: St. John's (-9)
          Game 551-552: Georgia at Tennessee (9:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 62.013; Tennessee 72.925
          Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 11
          Vegas Line: Tennessee by 9
          Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-9)
          Game 553-554: Fresno State at Wyoming (9:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 60.588; Wyoming 63.320
          Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 3
          Vegas Line: Wyoming by 6 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+6 1/2)
          Game 555-556: San Jose State at Nevada (10:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 43.615; Nevada 62.376
          Dunkel Line: Nevada by 18 1/2
          Vegas Line: Nevada by 13 1/2
          Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-13 1/2)
          Game 557-558: Boise State at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 62.549; Colorado State 60.232
          Dunkel Line: Boise State by 2 1/2
          Vegas Line: Pick
          Dunkel Pick: Boise State
          Game 559-560: Utah State at San Diego State (11:00 p.m. EST)
          Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 57.345; San Diego State 72.052
          Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 14 1/2
          Vegas Line: San Diego State by 10
          Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-10)

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

            Today's NBA Picks

            Toronto at Washington

            The Raptors (28-24) head to Washington tonight to face a Wizards team that is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games against a team with a winning SU record. Washington is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Wizards favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3). Here are all of today's picks.
            TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
            Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
            Game 501-502: Cleveland at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
            Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 115.139; Philadelphia 104.298
            Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 11; 204
            Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4; 209 1/2
            Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-4); Under
            Game 503-504: Toronto at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
            Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.687; Washington 124.892
            Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6; 202
            Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3; 195
            Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Over
            Game 505-506: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
            Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.054; Indiana 126.852
            Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 13; 187
            Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 10; 192
            Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-10); Under
            Game 507-508: Charlotte at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
            Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 114.684; Detroit 121.935
            Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 7 1/2; 209
            Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4 1/2; 204 1/2
            Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4 1/2); Over
            Game 509-510: New York at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
            Dunkel Ratings: New York 116.297; Memphis 122.153
            Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6; 202
            Vegas Line & Total: No Line
            Dunkel Pick: N/A
            Game 511-512: Orlando at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
            Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 114.824; Milwaukee 110.980
            Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 4; 187
            Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 2; 194
            Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-2); Under
            Game 513-514: Miami at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
            Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.935; Dallas 121.113
            Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4; 212
            Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2; 208
            Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2); Over
            Game 515-516: Phoenix at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
            Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 119.258; Denver 112.246
            Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 195
            Vegas Line & Total: No Line
            Dunkel Pick: N/A
            Game 517-518: San Antonio at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
            Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 117.651; LA Clippers 128.683
            Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 11; 215
            Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4 1/2; 211
            Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-4 1/2); Over

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

              College Basketball Information

              Richmond won/covered all three games since leading scorer Lindsey was lost for season; Spiders won five of last seven games with GW, winning three of last four played here, by 4-10-9 points- they're 5-0 SU at home in league. GW lost last two games by 17-6 points; they're 2-3 on A-13 road, winning at St Bona/George Mason. A-13 teams are 10-13 against spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.

              NC State played its heart out but lost by point at Syracuse; Wolfpack is 4-2 as ACC road dog- three of their last five road games were decided by one point. State won three of last four games with Clemson, losing four of last five visits to Littlejohn, with three losses by 10+ points. Clemson is 2-5 in last seven games, losing last two by 4-5; they're 1-2 as a home favorite. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-15 vs spread.

              Texas won nine of last ten games, three of last four on road; Longhorns (+2) beat Iowa State 86-76 at home Jan 18, its 10th win in last 12 series games, but they lost last two visits here, by 6-20 points. Cyclones won four of last five games but are 1-5 as home favorites, failing to cover last five at home, with only one of last four home wins by more than six points. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-5 vs spread.

              Villanova (-12) made 14-26 from arc in 91-61 thrashing of Providence Jan 5; Wildcats are 9-3 in last 12 series games, but lost last two visits to Providence, by 25-3 points. Wildcats are 4-2-1 as road favorites, with road wins by four of six road wins by 7+ points. Providence won five of last six home games, is 3-3 as Big East underdog, 1-0 at home. Big East home underdogs are 8-12 against spread.

              Kentucky won four in row, 12 of last 14 games with Ole Miss, beating Rebels 80-64 (-11.5) at Rupp Feb 4, outscoring them 26-8 on foul line in game that was 35-34 at half. Wildcats won last three road games, are 2-2 as road favorites, losing at Arkansas/LSU in six road games. SEC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6-1 vs spread. Ole Miss lost four of last six games, but all four were on road- they're 5-0 at home in SEC.

              Kansas won its last eight games with Texas Tech, winning last three in Lubbock by 22-35-14 points, but Tubby Smith has injected life into the Tech program. Red Raiders won three of last four games, covered eight of last ten- they've won three of last four at home, are 2-2 as home dogs. Kansas is 3-2 as road favorite but lost two of last three on foreign soil. Big X home underdogs are 11-8-1 vs spread.

              Indiana lost six of last eight games, with five losses by 7 or less poiints; Hoosiers split six home games, but won three of last four games with Iowa, winning by 14-13 in last two games played here. Hawkeyes won three of last four games, winning last three on road- they covered five of six road games. Big Dozen home teams are 10-8 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points; home underdogs are 8-12.

              Duke, which plays UNC/Syracuse later this week, beat Georgia Tech at home 79-57 (-15) Jan 7, outscoring Tech 22-0 from foul line, hitting 9 of 20 from arc. Blue Devils won six in row, 15 of last 17 games with Tech- they split last four visits here, winning by 14-7. Tech lost four of last five home games, is 1-2-1 as home dog- five of its eight ACC losses are by 13+. ACC home underdogs of 6+ points are 0-6 against spread.

              Northern Iowa (-8.5) beat Drake 76-66 Jan 11, outscoring Drake 23-8 in last 6:05; Panthers won five in row, nine of last ten series games, taking four of last five visits here, all by 7+ points. MVC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 3-5-1 vs spread. Bulldogs won last three home games, are 3-5 as MVC dogs. UNI won/covered last two games after covering once in previous eight games- they're 2-5 on MVC road.

              St John's won last five games, covered six of last seven, including three in row at home; Red Storm (+3.5) won 69-52 at Butler Jan 25, as Bulldogs made only 1-8 on arc. Butler lost its last four games, three by 8 or less points; they're 1-5 as road underdogs, with last three road losses by 9 or less points. Big East home favorites of 8+ points are 8-6 vs spread. St John's is 2-4 as a conference favorite this season.

              Georgia won its last four games, three by 12+ points; favorites are 4-0 vs spread in its last four road games. Dawgs won four of last five games vs Tennessee, with three wins by 6 or less points- they won two of last three visits here. Vols lost three of last four games, but covered three in row as home favorite, with last three home wins by 7-16-19 points. SEC home favorites of 8+ points are 14-9 vs spread.

              Home side won last six Boise-Colorado State games; Broncos lost three in row at Roby Arena, by 17-11-20 points. MWC home teams are 12-9 in games where spread was less than 4 points. Colorado State lost five of last seven games, losing last two by 9 points each- they're 3-3 at home in league. Boise lost three of last four games but beat New Mexico by point last game- they lost four of five MW road games, winning at Nevada.

              San Diego State (-3) won 74-69 in OT at Utah State Jan 25, outscoring Aggies 20-2 on foul line; Aztecs were +11 in turnovers (6-17), trailed in last 5:00 by 4. MWC home favorites of 10+ points are 10-15 vs spread. Aggies won three of last four games, is 2-2 as road dog, losing games on road by 1-8-4-20-17 points, with lone win at Colorado State. Only one of Aztecs' last five wins was by more than nine points.

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              • #8
                Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

                StatFox Super Situations

                TORONTO at WASHINGTON
                Play Against - Any team (WASHINGTON) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog 237-144 since 1997. ( 62.2% | 78.6 units ) 3-5 this year. ( 37.5% | -2.5 units )

                ATLANTA at INDIANA
                Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite 176-56 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.9% | 67.0 units ) 12-4 this year. ( 75.0% | 6.0 units )

                ATLANTA at INDIANA
                Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days 34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

                  7:00 PM
                  ATLANTA vs. INDIANA
                  Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
                  Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
                  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
                  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Atlanta

                  7:00 PM
                  TORONTO vs. WASHINGTON
                  Toronto is 18-6-1 ATS in its last 25 games
                  Toronto is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
                  Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
                  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Toronto

                  7:00 PM
                  CLEVELAND vs. PHILADELPHIA
                  Cleveland is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Philadelphia
                  Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
                  Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
                  The total has gone OVER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 16 games when playing at home against Cleveland

                  7:30 PM
                  CHARLOTTE vs. DETROIT
                  Charlotte is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Detroit
                  The total has gone OVER in 7 of Charlotte's last 8 games when playing Detroit
                  The total has gone OVER in 16 of Detroit's last 20 games at home
                  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte

                  8:00 PM
                  ORLANDO vs. MILWAUKEE
                  Orlando is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
                  Orlando is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
                  Milwaukee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
                  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Orlando

                  8:00 PM
                  NEW YORK vs. MEMPHIS
                  The total has gone OVER in 7 of New York's last 8 games when playing on the road against Memphis
                  New York is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Memphis
                  The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Memphis's last 16 games
                  Memphis is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games

                  8:30 PM
                  MIAMI vs. DALLAS
                  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
                  Miami is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
                  The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
                  Dallas is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games at home

                  9:00 PM
                  PHOENIX vs. DENVER
                  Phoenix is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
                  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing Denver
                  The total has gone OVER in 14 of Denver's last 21 games
                  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Phoenix

                  10:30 PM
                  SAN ANTONIO vs. LA CLIPPERS
                  San Antonio is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
                  The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
                  LA Clippers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing at home against San Antonio
                  The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/18

                    Inside the Paint - Tuesday
                    By Chris David
                    VegasInsider.com

                    After taking off four days for the All-Star break, the Association returns to the hardwood on Tuesday with nine games on tap and seven of those matchups will be conference clashes, five in the Eastern Conference.

                    Even though the East is inferior to the West as a whole, the oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag still have Miami (2/1) and Indiana (11/5) listed as the top two choices to win this year’s NBA Finals.

                    It’s hard to see anybody unseating the top pair in the East but it will be interesting to see who they’ll end up playing in the first and second-round of the upcoming playoffs.

                    For this installment, let’s handicap the five matchups in the East.

                    Cleveland (20-33 SU, 20-33 ATS) at Philadelphia (15-39 SU, 21-33 ATS)

                    It’s hard to make a case for either team here and the best play might be a pass. The Cavaliers have been installed as road favorites and you might ask why when you realize that they’ve gone 7-20 SU and 9-18 ATS as visitors this season. However, Philadelphia has lost eight straight and 11 of its last 12 and the lone win came on a buzzer beater at Boston (95-94) in a game they shouldn’t have won.

                    While the 76ers have been slumping, the Cavaliers have won and covered four straight games, two of them on the road as well. Cleveland has definitely underachieved this season but the recent winning streak started once the team fired general manager Chris Grant on Feb. 6.

                    This will be the fourth meeting between the two teams this season. The Cavaliers have won two of the first three encounters against the 76ers this season, both victories coming at home. Philadelphia defeated Cleveland 94-79 on Nov. 8 at home. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the three games.

                    Toronto (28-24 SU, 31-20 ATS) at Washington (25-27 SU, 28-23 ATS)

                    If the playoffs started today, these two teams would be meeting in the first-round. Toronto has gone 2-0 both SU and ATS against Washington this season, which includes a 101-88 road win on Jan. 13. For the third go ‘round, the Wizards opened as three-point favorites and the line has held steady overnight.

                    The Wizards closed the first-half with a 1-4 record but the four losses were by a combined 13 points and one of those came in overtime. Prior to the skid, Washington earned solid home victories against Western Conference contenders in Oklahoma City and Portland.

                    Even though Washington has shown it can play with anybody, its home record (13-13 SU, 10-15-1 ATS) is less than desirable. Meanwhile, Toronto has been very profitable (14-14 SU, 19-9 ATS) on the road.

                    The total on this matchup is hovering around 195. The ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in both meetings this season and is 5-1 in the last six matchups between the pair.

                    Atlanta (25-26 SU, 26-25 ATS) at Indiana (40-12 SU, 32-20 ATS)

                    The Pacers have lived up to expectations this season on the court and more importantly for bettors. Indiana has been a beast at home (25-3 SU, 18-10 ATS) and what’s more impressive is that club has gone 13-2 SU and 9-6 ATS when laying double digits.

                    Indiana is in that role again tonight, laying 10½-points to Atlanta. These teams met a couple weeks ago in Atlanta and Indiana captured an 89-85 road win as a 3½-point favorite.

                    The Hawks have been a middle of the road team in the East this season but most of their damage has come at home. On the road Atlanta has struggled to a 9-17 SU and 11-15 ATS record and it ended the first-half with a pair of double-digit blowout losses at Chicago (85-100) and Toronto (83-104).

                    Atlanta’s offense has gone missing lately, averaging 85.8 PPG in its last five games. The team is 0-5 both SU and ATS during this span while the ‘under’ has gone 4-1.

                    Tonight’s total has jumped from 191 to 192. The ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in the two encounters between the Pacers and Hawks this season.

                    Charlotte (23-30 SU, 29-23 ATS) at Detroit (22-30 SU, 24-28 ATS)

                    On Monday afternoon, one offshore outfit opened the Pistons as 6 ½-point favorites and that was quickly hit down. Detroit has settled as a 4½-point favorite at most books for this matchup and it finished up the first-half with a 3-1 run both SU and ATS, which includes a 1-1 record for interim coach John Loyer.

                    Loyer replaced Maurice Cheeks, who was abruptly fired by the team on Sunday Feb. 10. The Pistons have been a major disappointment on the court and at the betting counter. Detroit has gone 12-16 both SU and ATS at home this season. However, the club has won and covered five of its last six from The Palace of Auburn Hills.

                    These teams have already met once this season and it’s a game that Detroit wants to forget. The Bobcats rallied past the Pistons 116-106 on Dec. 20 as six-point road underdogs by outscoring them 41-17 in the fourth quarter.

                    Detroit has been the best ‘over’ team (35-16-1) in the NBA this season and tonight’s total has already jumped from 201 ½ to 204. Make a note that the ‘over’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Pistons and Bobcats and that includes a 5-0 ‘over’ run in the last five played at The Palace.

                    Orlando (16-38 SU, 23-30 ATS) at Milwaukee (9-43 SU, 23-30 ATS)

                    I shouldn’t even bother writing about this matchup but if you do decide to bet the side on this game, don’t pat yourself on the back if you win and you better not bitch if you lose.

                    The Magic opened as two-point road favorites and that seems a little strange when you realize they’ve gone 0-12 both SU and ATS in their last 12 road games. During this span, the ‘under’ has gone 11-1. Think about that! If you’ve faded Orlando blindly and bet the ‘under’ in a two-team parlay in their last 12 road games, you would be up $2,660 based on one-unit plays ($100).

                    Fading Milwaukee has been just as golden for bettors this season, especially at home where the Bucks have gone 5-21 SU and 9-17 ATS. The Bucks aren’t a talented club and they’ve also been hampered by injuries. Veteran Caron Butler (ankle) is expected to be back tonight and that should help, plus a few other key parts are ‘questionable.’

                    Orlando has gone 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS as a favorite this season, all of those results occurring at home. Against the Bucks, the Magic have gone 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS this season, both wins coming at home.

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