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**TheGame** · 02-14-2014, 08:33 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/14

Arizona at Arizona State
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

Friday night’s schedule for men’s college basketball tends to be light in nature, but this Friday features a huge showdown in the Pac-12 between No. 2 Arizona and Arizona State. The Wildcats cruised to a lopsided victory when these two met in mid-January, but they will be on the road this time around in a very difficult place to get a win.

No. 2 Arizona Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona’s win over the Sun Devils on Jan. 16 was part of an impressive 21-game winning streak, but that all came to an end with a stunning 60-58 loss to California on Feb. 1 as a six-point road favorite. Since that loss, the Wildcats have posted straight-up victories over Oregon and Oregon State, but they have been no bargain to bet on lately with a 1-5 record against the spread in their last six outings.

The Wildcats are 23-1 SU overall and 10-1 SU in conference play. They have covered in 14 of 23 games with a posted line, but they are just 5-6 ATS in the Pac-12. The total stayed UNDER the 134-point closing line in last Sunday’s 76-54 romp over the Beavers as 16-point home favorites and it has now stayed UNDER in their last six games.

The big question for Arizona is how it moves on without the services of Brandon Ashley, who was lost for the season with a foot injury. He was the team’s third leading scorer with 11.5 points per game, which puts a dent in an offense that is averaging 73.4 PPG. His loss will put some added weight on a defensive that is ranked third in the nation in points allowed (57.0). The Wildcats have also been a very solid team under the boards with an average of 39 rebounds a game.

The Sun Devils are also coming off a pair of victories over Oregon State and Oregon in their last two games, but they were both hard-fought battles that were decided by a combined total of six points. They are now 7-4 SU in the Pac-12 and 18-6 SU overall. Ever since that 23-point loss to the Wildcats as 13 ½-point road underdogs, Arizona State has gone 5-1 SU in its last six games, but it has failed to cover in four of those contests.

This is another team that has been tough on the wallet lately with a 2-6 record ATS in its last eight games. The Sun Devils are an even 11-11 ATS this season and the total has stayed UNDER in 13 of 21 games including nine of 12 games played at home. They have only covered in four of their first 11 games against the Pac-12 and the total has gone OVER in six of their last eight conference games.

Arizona State has a slight edge in this matchup in scoring with 77.1 points a game while shooting 46.5 percent from the field. Where it could have an issue is on the other end of the court with a defense that is allowing an average of 67.7 PPG to its opponents. The Sun Devils should match up pretty well under the boards with 37.1 rebounds a game and they have the edge shooting the ball from the outside; hitting 39.4 percent of their shots from 3-point range.

The Wildcats have been opened as five-point road favorites over Arizona State for Round 2 of this Pac-12 rivalry. Arizona has won six of the last seven meetings SU and they are 5-1 ATS in the last six games. The one encouraging trend for the Sun Devils is that the home team in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six games between the two.

Bonus Games

No. 13 Louisville Cardinals at Temple Owls

Thursday’s snowstorm in Philadelphia pushed this AAC matchup to Friday night. The Cardinals had been listed as 14-point road favorites, but it remains to be seen if this delay will have any effect on this betting line. The will come into this game in second place in the conference at 8-2 SU, but after failing to cover in two of their last three games they are just 5-5 ATS in the AAC. It has been a rough season for the Owls with an overall record of 9-13 SU (8-11-1 ATS) that includes just one SU victory in 10 AAC games. The last time these two met was in the 2002 NCAA Tournament with Temple coming away with a 65-62 win.

Harvard Crimson at Columbia Tigers

Harvard is 5-1 SU in the Ivy League this season, but that one loss came at the hands of Yale in a 74-67 setback this past Saturday as a 12½-point home favorite. The Crimson have failed to cover in five of their last eight games, but they will look to get back on track as six-point road favorites against a Tigers. Harvard has an 8-1 SU record in the last nine meetings; however Columbia has covered in five of the last six games.

**TheGame** · 02-14-2014, 08:34 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/14

Game of the Day: Arizona at Arizona State
By Covers.com

Arizona Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils (+5, 133)

Arizona proved in its last win that it has enough firepower to remain the frontrunner in the Pac-12, but its remaining path to a conference title figures to test its mettle. The third-ranked Wildcats begin a stretch in which they play five of their final seven games on the road Friday against Arizona State. Arizona lost starter Brandon Ashley for the season in its Feb. 1 setback at California, then struggled in a home victory against Oregon before routing Oregon State on Sunday.

Each of the Wildcats’ five remaining road games is against an opponent they have already defeated, perhaps none of which were more impressive than their 91-68 triumph on Jan. 16 against the Sun Devils. Arizona State has won five of six since that setback, although it has coughed up a second-half lead of at least 16 points in two of its last three victories. “I think for the second game in as many weeks of having a big lead and then losing it, our guys showed great character in retaking the lead and winning both (games),” Sun Devils coach Herb Sendek told the school’s official website.

LINE HISTORY: The early odds out of Las Vegas had Arizona as a 4.5-point road favorite with the total opening at 133 points.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-17.5) - Arizona State (-7.8) - Home Court (-3.0) = Arizona -6.7

INJURY WATCH: Arizona - Brandon Ashley (Out - Foot)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We will likely needs ASU to cover the spread as Arizona easily covered with them earlier this season and has covered five of the last six versus the Sun Devils. Both teams are struggling ATS recently, with Arizona going 1-5 in its last six and ASU going 2-6 in its last eight." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.com.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A 22-point blowout of Oregon State may not seem like it means much. But after three straight games decided by three points or less it showed that the Ashley-less Wildcats still have that high gear." - Covers Experts' Doc's Sports.

ABOUT ARIZONA (23-1 SU, 14-9 ATS, 5-17 O/U): In the nearly three games that Ashley has missed (he logged two minutes against California), former sixth man Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has stepped into his spot in the lineup and averaged 13.3 points and 7.3 rebounds – each of which is a slight improvement over Ashley’s season averages. The Wildcats outscored the Beavers 40-12 in the paint and 13-0 in second-chance points, continuing their season-long domination in both areas. Arizona owns a plus-13.3 advantage in the paint (854-535) and has nearly doubled up its opponents in second-chance points (326-166).

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (18-6 SU, 11-11 ATS, 9-12 O/U): Wildcats coach Sean Miller attributed the absence of second-leading scorer Jermaine Marshall – out with a groin injury on Jan. 16 – to Arizona’s success against Jordan Bachynski, who was limited to three points in the first meeting. “You don’t have to account for that 16 points per game…(Friday) will be much more difficult because they have another shooter (Marshall) on the court,” Miller told the Arizona Daily Star. Bachynski was nearly unstoppable last week, averaging 21.5 points, 12 rebounds and eight blocks en route to winning Pac-12 Player of the Week honors.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 39-16-1 in Wildcats' last 56 overall.
* Under is 38-17-3 in Sun Devils' last 58 home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 64 percent of the wagers are on Arizona -5.

**TheGame** · 02-14-2014, 08:34 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/14

College Basketball Information

Yale beat Harvard last week; both teams are 5-1 with eight games left in season; no conference tourney in Ivy, so Bulldogs have shot to win Ivy in huge upset. Bulldogs swept Penn LY by 9-14 points; they're 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-10-4 at home. Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 4-5 vs spread. Quakers are 0-2 as road underdogs, with losses by 17-30 points in their two Ivy road games.

Harvard won eight of last nine games with Columbia, but lost 78-63 here LY; Crimson is 3-3 as Ivy favorite, 1-0 on road- they won by 30 in only road game, at Dartmouth. Harvard won three of last four visits here, by 29-19-7. Columbia lost three of last four games, beating Cornell by 10 in only home game so far. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 vs spread. Harvard has made 43.6% of its 3-pointers in league play.

Cornell is 0-19 vs D-I teams; their only win was against Oberlin, which is 6-16 in D-III; Big Red won 18 of last 21 games with Dartmouth, with wins in last 10 games played here. Ivy League home teams are 5-1 vs spread if spread was less than 5 points. Cornell is 4-2 vs spread in Ivy, but they were getting double digits in all four covers. Dartmouth is 2-4 in Ivy, despite playing five of the six games at home.

Brown won four of its last five games, is 3-0 at home in Ivy, winning by 17-12-8 points; Bruins lost three of last four games with Princeton but won six of last eight played here- home side is 11-5 in last 16 series tilts. Princeton is 1-4 in Ivy after going 12-2 out of conference- they've lost twice in OT, another by one point- their only Ivy win was over an awful Cornell team. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 vs spread.

Detroit didn't want Oakland joining Horizon, so this will be good rivalry game as years go on; Grizzlies (+2.5) won first meeting 77-69 on Jan 11, rallying from 11 down with 8:10 to play. Horizon home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-13 vs spread. Oakland lost its last three games, is 1-3 as home favorite, with last two home wins by a point each. Detroit won three of last four games, covering last three on foreign soil.

Arizona won six of last seven games with Arizona State, winning 91-68 (-14) in first meeting Jan 16, leading 24-8 after 10:00; Wildcats are 2-2 as road favorites, with only one road win by more than four points. ASU is 4-1 in last five games, with last three wins by 2 points or in OT. Pac-12 home dogs of 5 or less points are 10-6 vs spread. Arizona won three of last four visits to Tempe, with all three wins by 15+.

Canisius (-9.5) outscored Niagara 26-7 on line in 87-74 home win Jan 22, with Baron scoring 31 points; Griffins won last two series games, after Niagara had won 17 of previous 20. MAAC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 4-7 vs spread. Canisius lost last two games to Iona/Jaspers- they're 2-2 as road favorites, winning last two away games. Niagara lost last four games, with three losses by four or less points.

Iona (-6.5) won 89-71 in first MAAC meeting at Monmouth Feb 4, with Gaels making 23-30 (77%) of shots inside arc. MAAC double digit home favorites are 7-8 vs spread. Iona won its last eight games (6-2 vs spread); they're 4-4 as home favorites, 2-3 when laying double digits. Monmouth lost last five games, three by 6 or less points; they're 5-3 as underdogs on road. Iona is making 41.7% from arc in MAAC, best in league.

Marist won three of last four games, covered last three; Red Foxes (+4) lost 67-58 at Siena Jan 10- Saints outscored them 29-16 on line in game where five Foxes had 4+ fouls. Siena is 2-5 on MAAC road, 2-3 as road underdog- thery're 0-4 vs spread in last four games. MAAC home faves of 5 or less points are 12-10 vs spread. Marist is 3-2 as home favorite, winning last three home games by 7-2-14 points.

Chattanooga lost two of last three games after starting 8-0 in conference; Moccasins are 5-0 at home, 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 9-1-21-10-15 points at home. Western Carolina won three of last four games, is 2-2 on SoCon road, losing by 11 at Wofford, 14 at Elon. WCU forces a turnover 22.7% of time, best in league. Southern Conference favorites are 10-7-1 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.

Temple lost 11 of last 12 games, is 1-9 in AAC, 3-4 vs spread as a dog, losing home games by 7-10-4 points, with win over Rutgers. Louisville hasn't played in nine days; they've won six of last seven games, is 4-1 as road favorite, winning away games by 25-7-12-39-15 points. Cardinals are forcing turnovers 23.7% of time, making 41% from arc, both best in AAC. AAC double digit favorites are 16-5 vs spread, 3-1 on road.

SMU (-12) beat Rutgers 70-56 at home Jan 18, holding Knights to 33% from floor, forcing 18 turnovers; Mustangs are in top 25 for first time in 28 years- they're 7-1 in last eight games, 9-1 in last ten vs spread, 1-1 as road favorites (2-2 SU on road). Rutgers won two of last three games, is 2-1 as home dogs. Home teams are 9-2 against spread in their conference games. AAC home underdogs are 6-11 vs spread.

**TheGame** · 02-14-2014, 08:35 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/14

7:00 PM
MONMOUTH vs. IONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Monmouth's last 5 games on the road
Monmouth is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Iona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Iona's last 11 games

7:00 PM
HARVARD vs. COLUMBIA
Harvard is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Harvard's last 6 games when playing on the road against Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbia's last 6 games when playing at home against Harvard
Columbia is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Harvard

7:00 PM
PRINCETON vs. BROWN
Princeton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Princeton's last 8 games when playing on the road against Brown
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brown's last 5 games
Brown is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
PENNSYLVANIA vs. YALE
Pennsylvania is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pennsylvania is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Yale's last 6 games when playing at home against Pennsylvania
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Yale's last 6 games when playing Pennsylvania

7:00 PM
DARTMOUTH vs. CORNELL
Dartmouth is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dartmouth's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cornell
Cornell is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cornell is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home

7:00 PM
DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games

8:00 PM
SIENA vs. MARIST
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Siena's last 9 games when playing on the road against Marist
Siena is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Marist
Marist is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Siena
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Marist's last 9 games when playing at home against Siena

9:00 PM
CANISIUS vs. NIAGARA
Canisius is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Niagara
Canisius is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Niagara
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Niagara's last 6 games when playing Canisius
Niagara is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing Canisius

9:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. ARIZONA STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona

**TheGame** · 02-14-2014, 08:35 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/14

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB DARTMOUTH at CORNELL
Play Against - A favorite (DARTMOUTH) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team
62-28 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.9% 31.2 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% 3.7 units )

CBB W CAROLINA at UT-CHATTANOOGA
Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (W CAROLINA) playing only their 3rd game in a week, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%)
57-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 85.1% 35.3 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% -1.7 units )

CBB HARVARD at COLUMBIA
Play Against - A road team vs. the 1rst half line (HARVARD) off an upset loss as a home favorite, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season
62-28 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.9% 31.2 units )
7-4 this year. ( 63.6% 2.6 units )

**TheGame** · 02-14-2014, 08:36 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/14

NCAA Basketball Picks

Arizona at Arizona State

The Wildcats thumped the Sun Devils (91-68) at home on January 16 and now head to Tempe where Arizona State is 4-19 ATS in its last 23 games in a revenge game after a road loss to an opponent. Arizona is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-5). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 14
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST

Game 801-802: Pennsylvania at Yale (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 46.062; Yale 56.694
Dunkel Line: Yale by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Yale by 9
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-9)

Game 803-804: Harvard at Columbia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 61.561; Columbia 52.520
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 9
Vegas Line: Harvard by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-6 1/2)

Game 805-806: Dartmouth at Cornell (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 49.687; Cornell 41.555
Dunkel Line: Dartmouth by 8
Vegas Line: Dartmouth by 3
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (-3)

Game 807-808: Princeton at Brown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 57.234; Brown 51.304
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 6
Vegas Line: Princeton by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-2 1/2)

Game 809-810: Detroit at Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 54.645; Oakland 53.087
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3)

Game 811-812: Arizona at Arizona State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 75.309; Arizona State 67.091
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-5)

Game 813-814: Canisius at Niagara (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 55.096; Niagara 52.379
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Canisius by 5
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+5)

Game 815-816: Monmouth at Iona (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 48.387; Iona 61.482
Dunkel Line: Iona by 13
Vegas Line: Iona by 15
Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+15)

Game 817-818: Siena at Marist (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 48.748; Marist 56.076
Dunkel Line: Marist by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Marist by 4
Dunkel Pick: Marist (-4)

Game 819-820: Western Carolina at Chattanooga (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 50.163; Chattanooga 50.256
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+2 1/2)

Game 823-824: SMU at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 71.195; Rutgers 57.749
Dunkel Line: SMU by 13 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: SMU by 8; 144
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-8); Over

Game 825-826: Louisville at Temple (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 78.225; Temple 57.627
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 20 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: Louisville by 14; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-14); Over

**TheGame** · 02-14-2014, 02:15 PM

Re: Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/14

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/14/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________

***** Friday, 2/14/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________

Friday's Notebook
•Yale beat Harvard last week; both teams are 5-1 with eight games left in season; no conference tourney in Ivy League, so Bulldogs have shot to win conference in huge upset. Bulldogs swept Penn LY by 9-14 points; they're 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-10-4 at home. Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 4-5 versus spread. Quakers are 0-2 as road underdogs, with losses by 17-30 points in their two Ivy road games.

•Harvard won eight of last nine games with Columbia, but lost 78-63 here LY; Crimson is 3-3 as Ivy favorite, 1-0 on road- they won by 30 in only road game, at Dartmouth. Harvard won three of last four visits here, by 29-19-7. Columbia lost three of last four games, beating Cornell by 10 in only home game so far. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 versus spread. Harvard has made 43.6% of its 3-pointers in league play.

•Cornell is 0-19 versus D-I teams; their only win was against Oberlin, which is 6-16 in D-III; Big Red won 18 of last 21 games with Dartmouth, with wins in last 10 games played here. Ivy League home teams are 5-1 versus spread if number was less than 5 points. Cornell is 4-2 versus spread in Ivy, but they were getting double digits in all four covers. Dartmouth is 2-4 in conference play, despite playing five of the six games at home.

•Brown won four of its last five games, is 3-0 at home in Ivy, winning by 17-12-8 points; Bruins lost three of last four games with Princeton but won six of last eight played here- home side is 11-5 in last 16 series tilts. Princeton is 1-4 in league play after going 12-2 out of conference- they've lost twice in OT, another by one point- their only conference win was over an awful Cornell team. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 versus spread.

•Detroit didn't want Oakland joining Horizon, so this will be good rivalry game as years go on; Grizzlies (+2.5) won first meeting 77-69 on Jan 11, rallying from 11 down with 8:10 to play. Horizon League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-13 versus spread. Oakland lost its last three games, is 1-3 as home favorite, with last two home wins by a point each. Detroit won three of last four games, covering last three on foreign soil.

•Arizona won six of last seven games with Arizona State, winning 91-68 (-14) in first meeting Jan 16, leading 24-8 after 10:00; Wildcats are 2-2 as road favorites, with only one road win by more than four points. ASU is 4-1 in last five games, with last three wins by 2 points or in OT. Pac-12 home dogs of 5 or less points are 10-6 versus spread. Arizona won three of last four visits to Tempe, with all three wins by 15+.

•Canisius (-9.5) outscored Niagara 26-7 on line in 87-74 home win Jan 22, with Baron scoring 31 points; Griffins won last two series games, after Niagara had won 17 of previous 20. MAAC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 4-7 versus spread. Canisius lost last two games to Iona/Jaspers- they're 2-2 as road favorites, winning last two away games. Niagara lost last four games, with three losses by four or less points.

•Iona (-6.5) won 89-71 in first MAAC meeting at Monmouth Feb 4, with Gaels making 23-30 (77%) of shots inside arc. MAAC double digit home favorites are 7-8 versus spread. Iona won its last eight games (6-2 vs. spread); they're 4-4 as home favorites, 2-3 when laying double digits. Monmouth lost last five games, three by 6 or less points; they're 5-3 as underdogs on road. Iona is making 41.7% from arc in MAAC, best in league.

•Marist won three of last four games, covered last three; Red Foxes (+4) lost 67-58 at Siena Jan 10- Saints outscored them 29-16 on line in game where five Foxes had 4+ fouls. Siena is 2-5 on MAAC road, 2-3 as road underdog- they’re 0-4 versus spread in last four games. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-10 versus spread. Marist is 3-2 as home favorite, winning last three home games by 7-2-14 points.

•Chattanooga lost two of last three games after starting 8-0 in conference; Moccasins are 5-0 at home, 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 9-1-21-10-15 points at home. Western Carolina won three of last four games, is 2-2 on Southern Conference road, losing by 11 at Wofford, 14 at Elon. WCU forces a turnover 22.7% of time, best in league. Southern Conference favorites are 10-7-1 versus spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.

•Temple lost 11 of last 12 games, is 1-9 in AAC, 3-4 versus spread as a dog, losing home games by 7-10-4 points, with win over Rutgers. Louisville hasn't played in nine days; they've won six of last seven games, is 4-1 as road favorite, winning away games by 25-7-12-39-15 points. Cardinals are forcing turnovers 23.7% of time, making 41% from arc, both best in league. AAC double digit favorites are 16-5 versus spread, 3-1 on road.

•SMU (-12) beat Rutgers 70-56 at home Jan 18, holding Knights to 33% from floor, forcing 18 turnovers; Mustangs are in top 25 for first time in 28 years- they're 7-1 in last eight games, 9-1 in last ten versus spread, 1-1 as road favorites (2-2 SU on road). Rutgers won two of last three games, is 2-1 as home dogs. Home teams are 9-2 against spread in their conference games. AAC home underdogs are 6-11 versus spread.

•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CORNELL is 17-1 ATS (+15.9 Units) after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1997.
The average score was CORNELL 66.7, OPPONENT 67.0.

-- ARIZONA is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 70.3, OPPONENT 57.2.

-- NIAGARA is 3-18 (-16.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls since 1997.
The average score was NIAGARA 32.0, OPPONENT 35.7.

-- PRINCETON is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PRINCETON 33.0, OPPONENT 31.2.

-- MITCH HENDERSON is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week as the coach of PRINCETON.
The average score was HENDERSON 69.0, OPPONENT 65.0.

•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- SMU is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was SMU 71.9, OPPONENT 60.1.

-- ARIZONA is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 71.2, OPPONENT 55.6.

-- W CAROLINA is 0-6 (-6.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% after 15+ games this season.
The average score was W CAROLINA 30.2, OPPONENT 35.3.

-- SMU is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was SMU 30.7, OPPONENT 25.4.

-- TOMMY AMAKER is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games as the coach of HARVARD.
The average score was AMAKER 65.8, OPPONENT 69.3.

•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (ARIZONA) - an excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less.
(58-7 since 1997.) (89.2%, +41.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -239.3
The average score in these games was: Team 74.3, Opponent 66.4 (Average point differential = +7.9)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1, +10.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +14.1 units).

-- Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (TEMPLE) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 5 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season.
(29-6 since 1997.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (4-31)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 14
The average score in these games was: Team 66.5, Opponent 77.1 (Average point differential = -10.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (29.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).

-- Play Against - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NIAGARA) - average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 reb/game), revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points, off a home loss by 3 points or less.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-4 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.3
The average score in these games was: Team 72.7, Opponent 62.5 (Average point differential = +10.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (40.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (64-35).

-- Play Against - A road team versus the 1rst half line (HARVARD) - good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, off an upset loss as a home favorite, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record.
(56-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +31.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.7, Opponent 29.5 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)

The situation's record this season is: (7-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-14).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (128-77).
___________________________________________

Friday's Match-ups

#811 ARIZONA @ #812 ARIZONA ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Arizona -5, Total: N/A) - Arizona proved in its last win that it has enough firepower to remain the frontrunner in the Pac-12, but its remaining path to a conference title figures to test its mettle. The third-ranked Wildcats begin a stretch in which they play five of their final seven games on the road Friday against Arizona State. Arizona lost starter Brandon Ashley for the season in its Feb. 1 setback at California, then struggled in a home victory against Oregon before routing Oregon State on Sunday.

Each of the Wildcats’ remaining road games is against an opponent they have already defeated, perhaps none of which were more impressive than their 91-68 triumph Jan. 16 against the Sun Devils. Arizona State has won five of six since that setback, although it has coughed up a second-half lead of at least 16 points in two of its last three victories. “I think for the second game in as many weeks of having a big lead and then losing it, our guys showed great character in retaking the lead and winning both (games),” Sun Devils coach Herb Sendek told the school’s website.

•ABOUT ARIZONA (23-1 SU, 14-9-0 ATS, 10-1 Pac-12): In the nearly three games that Ashley has missed (he logged two minutes against California), former sixth man Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has stepped into his spot in the lineup and averaged 13.3 points and 7.3 rebounds – each of which is a slight improvement over Ashley’s season averages. The Wildcats outscored the Beavers 40-12 in the paint and 13-0 in second-chance points, continuing their season-long domination in both areas. Arizona owns a 13.3 points per game advantage in the paint and has nearly doubled up its opponents in second-chance points (326-166).

•ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (18-6 SU, 11-11-0 ATS, 7-4 Pac-12): Wildcats coach Sean Miller attributed the absence of second-leading scorer Jermaine Marshall – out with a groin injury Jan. 16 – to Arizona’s success against Jordan Bachynski, who was limited to three points in the first meeting. “You don’t have to account for that 16 points per game … (Friday) will be much more difficult because they have another shooter (Marshall) on the court,” Miller told the Arizona Daily Star. Bachynski was nearly unstoppable last week, averaging 21.5 points, 12 rebounds and eight blocks en route to winning Pac-12 Player of the Week honors.

•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona, which has won six of the last seven in this series, owns a conference-best 29 true road wins since Miller took over prior to the 2009-10 season.... Bachynski’s 107 blocks match the number made by the Wildcats as a team.... Arizona is tied with Southern Methodist for first in the country in two-point field-goal percentage defense (40.7).... The Sun Devils are 0-6 ATS against the spread versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.... The Wildcats are 9-1 versus the spread in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last three seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST covered the spread 508 times, while ARIZONA covered the spread 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 624 times, while ARIZONA ST won 349 times. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA covered the first half line 501 times, while ARIZONA ST covered the first half line 499 times. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA is 19-16 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 27-8 straight up against ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--17 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--ARIZONA is 23-11 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

--Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--ARIZ is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--ARIZ is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 39-16-1 in ARIZ last 56 overall.

--ASU are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Fri. games.
--ASU are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in ASU last 8 vs. Pacific-12.
_______________________________

#823 SMU @ #824 RUTGERS
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, No TV - Line: SMU -8.5, Total: 143.5) - Fresh off its biggest win since Ronald Reagan was in office, Southern Methodist must be wary of a letdown when it opens a two-game road trip with a visit to Rutgers on Friday night. The game was originally scheduled for Thursday, but postponed because of a winter storm in New Jersey. The Mustangs are coming off a 76-55 demolition of American Athletic Conference leader Cincinnati, handing the Bearcats their first league loss with their third win over a ranked team. SMU fans rushed the floor following the 76-55 rout of Cincinnati, the program's first victory over a Top 10 team since December 1987.

The Mustangs, in their second season under Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown, have won three straight to improve to 13-0 at home and their only setback in the last nine games came at South Florida in their last road game. "There's no reason why we can't be a premier program," Brown said. "We've just got to get people to believe in what we're doing." SMU knocked off visiting Rutgers 70-56 on Jan. 21, but the Scarlet Knights posted an impressive 79-69 victory at South Florida on Saturday.

•ABOUT SMU (19-5 SU, 14-6-0 ATS, 8-3 AAC): Halting Cincinnati's 15-game winning streak put the Mustangs within one victory of reaching 20, but it also ratcheted up the team's aspirations. “Our goal is to win a national championship, which might have sounded crazy a couple of months ago,” center Cannen Cunningham told reporters after Saturday's game. “We’ve seen the bottom. We’re trying to get to the top. I think we can do it.” Forward Markus Kennedy scored only four points Saturday to end a string of 14 games in double figures, but he tormented Rutgers with 18 points and 10 rebounds in the first matchup.

•ABOUT RUTGERS (10-14 SU, 10-12-0 ATS, 4-7 AAC): The Scarlet Knights have won two of three following a four-game skid and are battling Houston for sixth place and a first-round bye in the conference tournament. "Obviously, we have to have a goal, and it’s sixth place," Rutgers coach Eddie Jordan said. "Hopefully we can achieve that goal. It’s a journey." Second-leading scorer Kadeem Jack was limited to eight points on 2-for-11 shooting in last month's loss at SMU, but the burly forward erupted for a career-high 31 points at South Florida and is averaging 19.2 points over his last five games.

•PREGAME NOTES: Brown is 14-6 against Jordan, the first 13 wins coming in the NBA.... SMU ranks second nationally in field-goal percentage defense, holding opponents to 36.7 percent shooting.... Rutgers G Myles Mack (1,114 points) is nine shy of surpassing the late Jim Valvano for 27th place on the school's career list.... The Mustangs are 9-1 versus the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.... The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 against the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the spread 539 times, while SMU covered the spread 461 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 740 times, while RUTGERS won 239 times. In 1000 simulated games, 593 games went under the total, while 407 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the first half line 520 times, while SMU covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 542 games went under first half total, while 458 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SMU is 1-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS since 1997.
--SMU is 1-0 straight up against RUTGERS since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--SMU is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against RUTGERS since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

•RECENT TRENDS
--SMU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Fri. games.
--SMU is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 5-2 in SMU last 7 road games.

--RUTG is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--RUTG is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Over is 5-0 in RUTG last 5 overall.
_______________________________

#825 LOUISVILLE @ #826 TEMPLE
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Louisville -14, Total: N/A) - Louisville is running out of time to chase down Cincinnati atop the American Athletic Conference but enters the final month of its regular-season slate in strong position to defend its NCAA title. The eighth-ranked Cardinals aim for their third straight win when they visit last-place Temple on Friday. The game was originally scheduled for Thursday, but postponed because of snow. Louisville sits two games behind Cincinnati in the AAC and still has to make trips to face the Bearcats and Memphis.

The Cardinals bounced back from a 69-66 home loss to Cincinnati on Jan. 30 by picking on Central Florida and Houston in a pair of wins by an average of 16 points. Louisville averages 82.3 points and has been held under 70 just four times this season, including its last three losses. The Owls will be hard-pressed to come up with a defensive effort that can keep the Cardinals under 70 points and have surrendered an average of 82.7 in their last seven contests.

•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (19-4 SU, 11-10-0 ATS, 8-2 AAC): The Cardinals are coming off an eight-day break after a 77-62 triumph at Houston that saw the team shoot 55.6 percent. Louisville’s offense is keyed by forcing turnovers, and its margin of plus-6.7 and average of 22.2 points off turnovers both rank among the leaders nationally. Chris Jones (1.9) and Russ Smith (1.8) lead the team in steals, and Jones nabbed five of the Cardinals’ 11 steals while Smith led four starters in double figures with 17 points in the win at Houston.

•ABOUT TEMPLE (6-19 SU, 8-11-1 ATS, 1-9 AAC): The Owls rank last in the AAC with an average of 5.6 steals and are allowing more points than any team in the conference at 77.8. That same Houston squad that managed just 62 points against Louisville put up 88 in a 14-point triumph over Temple on Sunday as the Owls fell despite having all five starters in double figures. Temple boasts four players averaging at least 14 points but struggles to get stops at the other end and is staring at a stretch of five straight games against the top five teams in the conference.

•PREGAME NOTES: Temple G Dalton Pepper has scored in double figures in 10 straight games and added at least five rebounds in each of the last three.... Louisville F Wayne Blackshear (concussion) missed the last game but is expected to be back Friday.... Smith is connecting on just 64.4 percent of his free-throw attempts over the last six games.... The Cardinals are 21-8 versus the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Temple is 36-14 against the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games since 1997.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the spread 510 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the spread 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 830 times, while TEMPLE won 152 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 551 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 405 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEMPLE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--TEMPLE is 1-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--LOUISVILLE is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against TEMPLE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

•RECENT TRENDS
--LOU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
--Over is 21-8 in LOU last 29 overall.
--Under is 15-7 in LOU last 22 Fri. games.

--TEM is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
--TEM is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 home games.
--Over is 16-5 in TEM last 21 home games.

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Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/14

Basketball Handicapping. News, Notes and Trends. 2/14

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