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**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 05:02 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

Fact or Fiction
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

We're just about at the All-Star Break, and that means we’re heading into the second half of the NBA season. Check out some of the hot topic items as we head further into 2014 for NBA betting fans, as we decipher which is fact and which is fiction.

Fact

The Detroit Pistons Could Be the Best "Other" Team in the East: We know that the Pacers and the Heat are the elite teams in the Eastern Conference, but aside from that, it's up for interpretation. We think that the Pistons are starting to come into their own though, as they scored big home wins this past week over Denver and Brooklyn. No team can throw a lineup on the court as big as Detroit can, as Josh Smith makes an awesome shooting guard. Andre Drummond is one of the best rebounders in the league, and Greg Monroe is a center which can dominate at times. The Pistons are still a couple guards away from being able to really compete, but to think that this team could get into the playoffs and push some teams is definitely plausible. And, the recent firing of head coach Maurice Cheeks might actually spart this underachieving club.

GM Chris Grant Needed To Go: The Cavs dismissed general manager Chris Grant this past week in a move that flat out had to be made. Cleveland has drafted poorly for the most part since the departure of LeBron James, and trading for Luol Deng and then watching the team fall apart was probably the final straw. It's time to hit the reset button again in Cleveland, and for a franchise that really never recovered from the last time it hit the reset button, this could be a brutal overhaul.

The Washington Wizards Might Literally Be a Player Away: Washington made it above .500 for the first time in several seasons this week, and the only reason why it isn't still above .500 is because it lost a heartbreaker to Cleveland on Friday. Still, this is a team that really hasn't played a terrible game in almost a month, and the pieces are really starting to come together. The backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal looks to be legit, and Marcin Gortat is a serviceable center. The depth for this team is suspect at best, but at least the Wizards are headed in the right direction. After years of losing, this is firmly a playoff team and it might evolve into a contender again next season.

Fiction

The Houston Rockets as NBA Championship Contenders: The time is going to come when the Rockets realize that they are the new incarnation of the Suns. They aren't going to be able to keep Chandler Parsons around when it comes time to re-up his contract, and they don't have the team right now to do the job either. Sure, Houston has won five straight games, but it has only won one of those on the road against a legit foe. We'll see what happens when the Rockets have to travel to San Antonio or Los Angeles or Oklahoma City in the postseason. We just don't see Dwight Howard and James Harden being a good enough duo to stick with the bulky teams in the Western Conference at really any point in the near future.

The New Orleans Pelicans Being a Joke: The Pelicans are seven-games under .500, and we have spoken about them at length as potential contenders down the line in the future before. New Orleans is 3-5 SU and ATS this season in games in which Anthony Davis doesn't play, so if it can just keep its big man on the court, we might see some amazing things happen. The Pelicans have gone 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven with Davis in the lineup, and they might be able to play the spoiler role in the Southwest Division this year.

The Minnesota Timberwolves Beating Anyone Without Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic: There really might not be a worse team in the league right now in its current form than Minnesota. Granted, it's not the Timberwolves' fault that both Pekovic and Love are out of the lineup, as they are both injured. Without them though, the team had little chance against either the Trail Blazers or the Pelicans, especially with Ronny Turiaf and Gorgui Dieng really being the only big men on the roster. Love and Pekovic badly need to get back in the lineup in a hurry if Minnesota wants to even think about contending for a playoff spot in the West.

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 05:02 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

NBA

Hot teams
-- Pacers won four of their last five games.
-- New Orleans won six of its last nine games; they're 7-1 vs spread in game following their last eight losses.
-- Detroit won its last four home games, but fired its coach yesterday. Spurs won four of their last five games.
-- Celtics won three of their last four games.
-- Rockets won their last five games (4-1 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Nuggets lost four of their last six games.
-- Raptors lost three of their last four games.
-- Bucks lost eight of last nine games, but covered last four.
-- Timberwolves lost five of their last six games.
-- Golden State is 3-4 in its last seven home games. 76ers lost their last six games (1-5 vs spread).

Series records
-- Pacers lost five in row, seven of last eight games vs Denver.
-- Raptors won six of last seven games with New Orleans.
-- Spurs won four of their last five games with Detroit.
-- Bucks won four of last five games with Boston.
-- Rockets won three of last four games with Minnesota.
-- 76ers won six of last nine games with Golden State.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Denver-Indiana games went over total; five of last seven Pacer games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Pelican games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four San Antonio games went over.
-- Six of last eight Boston games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Houston games stayed under.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Philly's last five games.

Back to backs
-- Pacers are 0-5 vs spread if they played on road night before.
-- New Orleans is 4-6-2 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Celtics are 1-3 vs spread on road if they played at home day before.
-- 76ers are 1-8 vs spread if they lost the night before.

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 08:08 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/10/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________

***** Monday, 2/10/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________________ ___

Monday's Notebook
•Providence (even) beat Georgetown 70-52 at home Jan 8, ending 8-game series skid; Friars lost last five visits here, by 10-7-2-9-9 points. Hoyas are 2-3 as home favorites, 3-3 SU, winning by 7-17-8 points- they won last two games after a 5-game skid. Big East home favorites of more than 4 points are 16-10 versus spread. Providence lost three of its last four games; they're 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 30-11-6 points.

•Virginia won its last five games with Maryland, winning last two here by 27-3 points; Cavaliers are 1-1 versus spread in ACC, 4-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 23-12-15-20-10. Maryland won three of last four games; they're 0-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 20-24-9-12 points- favorites are 5-1 versus spread in their ACC road games. ACC double digit home favorites are 5-8 versus spread.

•Iowa State swept West Virginia by 2-9 points LY; Cyclones won last three games overall but are 1-7 versus spread in last eight- they're 2-3 away from home, winning last road game in triple OT at Oklahoma State. West Virginia won last three games, covered four of last five; they won their last three home games, by 6-10-5 points. Big X home teams are 3-5 versus spread when spread was less than 4 points.

•James Madison won two of last three games with Hofstra, after losing previous 12 series games; Pride won six of last seven games here, but lost five of last six games overall- they're 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 7-18-18-8 points. JMU lost three in row, seven of last nine games; they're 1-3 at home in CAA, with all four games decided by 4 or less points. CAA home favorites are 13-24 against spread.

•Western Kentucky (-5) beat Arkansas State 82-77 in double OT Jan 18, its 8th win in last 11 series games, but Hilltoppers lost last two visits to Jonesboro by 8-14 points. WKU won last six games overall, are 5-0 SU and ATS on Sun Belt road. Sun Belt home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-9 versus spread. ASU won two of three at home in Sun Belt, losing to Troy when Trojans made 14-27 from the arc.

•Florida State (-1) won 63-53 at Miami Jan 15, after being down 5 with 10:23 left; Seminoles won eight of last 11 games with Hurricanes, going 4-1 in last five played here. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-15 versus spread. FSU lost four of last five games, covered one of its last seven- they're 2-3 as home favorites. Road team is 9-1 versus spread in Miami's ACC games; six of their 10 ACC games were decided by 6 or less.

•Kansas (-11.5) pounded Kansas State 86-60 at home Jan 11- their 22nd win in last 25 series games; Jayhawks won four of last five visits to the Little Apple, but last three wins were by 2-6-4 points. Wildcats are 5-0 at home in Big X, 3-2 versus spread as Big X dog. Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-4-1 versus spread. Kansas is 3-1 as road favorite, with only conference loss in ten games at Texas.

•Western Carolina is 2-3 in its last five games, 1-5-1 versus spread in its last seven; they're 2-1-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 21-12-3-9 points, with loss to Davidson. Furman lost last four games but covered four of last five games as road underdog- their road losses are by 8-2-7-15-15 points. WCU won six of its last eight games with Furman. Southern Conference double digit home favorites are 3-11 versus spread.

•Marist won its last three games by 2-14-7 points; they're 3-3 as road underdogs, losing road games by 9-9-7-6-13 points- they got first road win at Rider Thursday. Quinnipiac won three of last four, is 3-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 4-12-5-9-14-21, with a loss to Canisius. Bobcats played on Saturday, had two less days to prepare for this. MAAC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-17 versus spread.

•Fairfield is 2-11 in MAAC but covered last three games as a road dog; Stags are 0-6 on road, losing away games by 4-19-26-9-3-8 points (4-2 as road dogs). MAAC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-17 versus spread. Patsos was ejected in Siena's loss at St Peter's Friday; Saints are 3-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 15-9-17-4 points, losing to both Iona/Quinnipiac. Stags won six of last eight series games.

•Southern Utah is 0-19 versus D-I teams, one of worst teams in country, but they've covered last seven games- they're 6-1 as Big Sky road dogs, with last four road losses by 7 or less points. Sacramento State won its last three games, covered last four; they're 1-1 as home favorites- underdogs covered four of Hornets' five Big Sky home games. Big Sky double digit home favorites are 3-11 against the spread.

•NC-Wilmington lost its last 14 games, losing at Hofstra Saturday after they blew 14-point halftime lead; Seahawks lost last four games against Towson, losing by 5-5-13-7 points. UNCW is 0-4 SU at home, but three of four losses were by 5 or less points. Towson won its last four games, is 2-1 on CAA road, with only loss at Delaware. CAA home teams are 8-16 versus spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.

•Situational Trends of The Day
-- VIRGINIA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA 67.0, OPPONENT 51.8.

-- SOUTHERN UTAH is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season.
The average score was SOUTHERN UTAH 51.1, OPPONENT 66.8.

-- KANSAS ST is 12-2 (+9.8 Units) against the 1rst half line after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS ST 32.9, OPPONENT 25.3.

-- W CAROLINA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was W CAROLINA 31.0, OPPONENT 33.8.

-- BUZZ PETERSON is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points as the coach of UNC-WILMINGTON.
The average score was PETERSON 59.5, OPPONENT 69.7.

•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- W KENTUCKY is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was W KENTUCKY 65.2, OPPONENT 72.2.

-- MIAMI is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season.
The average score was MIAMI 55.5, OPPONENT 58.6.

-- MARYLAND is 3-12 (-10.2 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MARYLAND 30.8, OPPONENT 33.0.

-- HOFSTRA is 14-0 OVER (+14.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was HOFSTRA 34.8, OPPONENT 31.8 - (Rating = 6*)

-- BRUCE WEBER is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game as the coach of KANSAS ST.
The average score was WEBER 71.7, OPPONENT 59.7.

•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ARKANSAS ST) - revenging a same season loss versus opponent, after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(66-26 since 1997.) (71.7%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (79-16)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 77.4, Opponent 67.4 (Average point differential = +10)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 38 (40.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-10).

-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (SACRAMENTO ST) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(69-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +38.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (11-91 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.5
The average score in these games was: Team 62.5, Opponent 72.6 (Average point differential = -10.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (28% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (15-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-21).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (142-93).

-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (VIRGINIA) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(69-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +38.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (11-91 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.5
The average score in these games was: Team 62.5, Opponent 72.6 (Average point differential = -10.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (28% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (15-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-21).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (142-93).
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Monday's Match-ups

#713 PROVIDENCE @ #714 GEORGETOWN
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Georgetown -4.5, Total: N/A) - Two teams starting to head in opposite directions meet in a critical Big East contest when Providence visits rejuvenated Georgetown on Monday night. Senior guard Markel Starks has led the way as Georgetown rebounded from a five-game losing streak to win its last three contests, beginning with a surprising triumph over No. 8 Michigan State. The Friars, who ended an eight-game drought against Georgetown with a 70-52 victory on Jan. 8, have dropped three of their last four.

Starks has averaged 21.7 points over the previous six games, including 19 to go along with seven assists in the 71-63 win over Butler on Saturday. The Hoyas have allowed 39.6 percent shooting this season – tops in the Big East – and Providence has struggled from the field to rank last at 41.5 percent in the league. Providence point guard Bryce Cotton, who is second in the league in scoring (20.8), recorded only nine points in the 59-53 loss at Xavier on Saturday.

•ABOUT PROVIDENCE (16-8 SU, 11-12-0 ATS, 6-5 Big East): Cotton had scored at least 20 points in 12 of his previous 13 games before going 4-of-11 from the field in 40 minutes Saturday. LaDontae Henton (13.8), Tyler Harris (12) and Kadeem Batts (11.9) also average in double figures scoring for the Friars and Josh Fortune registered a team-high 17 points against Xavier. Providence coach Ed Cooley said mistakes cost his team the last two games, but he told reporters, “We’re still in a good place. I like the way my team competes and fights.”

•ABOUT GEORGETOWN (14-9 SU, 11-11-0 ATS, 5-6 Big East): Starks and fellow guard D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera both average 16.9 points and Jabril Trawick is third among active players at 7.4. Smith-Rivera must get back on track from behind the 3-point arc, where he is 0-of-16 the last four games, while Trawick has raised his game, scoring 10.3 per game over the last three. The Hoyas are allowing 60.7 points during their win streak and will try to wear down the Friars, who use only six players for substantial minutes, while improving their work on the boards (ninth in the league).

•PREGAME NOTES: Georgetown senior F Nate Lubick has hauled in at least nine rebounds in three of the last five games and averages a team-best six.... Providence leads the nation in free-throw percentage (78.5), but managed to draw only seven attempts while making five against Xavier.... The Hoyas are ninth in the league in 3-point shooting percentage (32.3) and second in defending behind the arc (30.6).... The Friars are 5-13 against the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... Georgetown is 1-8 versus the spread after playing a game as a home favorite this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, PROVIDENCE covered the spread 517 times, while GEORGETOWN covered the spread 483 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGETOWN won the game straight up 602 times, while PROVIDENCE won 372 times. In 1000 simulated games, PROVIDENCE covered the first half line 517 times, while GEORGETOWN covered the first half line 483 times. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PROVIDENCE is 11-9 against the spread versus GEORGETOWN since 1997.
--GEORGETOWN is 14-6 straight up against PROVIDENCE since 1997.
--10 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--PROVIDENCE is 13-6 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGETOWN since 1997.
--8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

--Friars are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Georgetown.
--Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
--Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--PROV is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--PROV is 5-0 ATS L5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Under is 9-3 in PROV last 12 road games.

--GTWN is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
--GTWN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Under is 21-6 in GTWN last 27 Mon. games.
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#715 MARYLAND @ #716 VIRGINIA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Virginia -11, Total: N/A) - No. 21 Virginia is one of the hottest teams in the nation and looks to extend its winning streak to eight games when it hosts Maryland on Monday. The Cavaliers have not tasted defeat since a 69-65 setback to No. 11 Duke on Jan. 13 and are coming off a 64-45 victory over Georgia Tech. Virginia is off to its best start in ACC play since opening up the 1981-82 season at 12-1 and equaled a school record with its ninth conference double-digit win as it chases Syracuse in the race for the ACC title.

Maryland has won three of its last four games to move above .500 in conference play. The Terrapins bounced back from a 75-63 loss to North Carolina with an 83-71 triumph over Florida State as they prepare for a challenging two-game road swing versus Virginia and Duke. "We've got great opportunities this week in tough places to play," coach Mark Turgeon said. "If we can't get excited for these two games this week, then there's something wrong with us."

•ABOUT MARYLAND (14-10 SU, 10-10-0 ATS, 6-5 ACC): Seth Allen scored a career-high 32 points on 11-of-15 shooting to help the Terrapins avenge an earlier loss to Florida State on Jan. 12. Dez Wells leads the team in scoring (15.2) and has finished in double figures in 21 of his 24 games this season. Maryland has struggled from the free-throw line (66.4 percent), but went 19-for-23 from the charity stripe against the Seminoles.

•ABOUT VIRGINIA (19-5 SU, 13-7-0 ATS, 10-1 ACC): Malcolm Brogdon notched his second straight double-double by scoring 14 points and grabbing 11 rebounds against Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers are ranked first nationally in scoring defense (55.6 ppg) and have held their last 11 opponents to under 70 points. Joe Harris knocked down three triples versus the Yellow Jackets and leads all active ACC players with 233 career 3-point field goals.

•PREGAME NOTES: Virginia has won 14 consecutive conference home games.... The Cavaliers are 45-4 when scoring 70 points or more under Tony Bennett.... Maryland is 106-73 all-time versus Virginia.... The Cavaliers are 7-0 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.... The Terrapins are 4-12 against the spread versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, MARYLAND covered the spread 506 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 463 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA won the game straight up 751 times, while MARYLAND won 232 times. In 1000 simulated games, MARYLAND covered the first half line 581 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 419 times. *EDGE against first half line =MARYLAND.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VIRGINIA is 17-15 against the spread versus MARYLAND since 1997.
--MARYLAND is 19-13 straight up against VIRGINIA since 1997.
--16 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--VIRGINIA is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against MARYLAND since 1997.
--17 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Virginia.

•RECENT TRENDS
--MD is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--MD is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
--Under is 5-2 in MD last 7 Monday games.

--UVA is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Mon. games.
--UVA is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Over is 9-2 in UVA last 11 Mon. games.
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#717 IOWA ST @ #718 W VIRGINIA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Iowa State -2, Total: N/A) - Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg told reporters after his team’s last win that Melvin Ejim might not get as much credit as he deserves. Following his Big 12-record 48-point outburst Saturday against Texas Christian, Ejim figures to be the center of attention on Monday when his 17th-ranked Cyclones travel to West Virginia. Ejim, whose previous high was 23 points last season, broke the previous conference record of 44 set by two former Kansas State standouts – Michael Beasley and Denis Clemente.

As if that wasn’t enough, the conference’s leading scorer and active leader with 30 doubles-doubles collected a career-high 18 rebounds, joining Beasley and ex-Oklahoma star Blake Griffin as the only Big 12 players to post at least 40 points and 15 rebounds in the same game. Iowa State has won three straight, but figures to get tested against the Mountaineers, who snapped a similar streak by ninth-ranked Kansas over the weekend. West Virginia, which defeated No. 23 Oklahoma last week, will complete its daunting four-game stretch against top-25 foes on Wednesday against No. 18 Texas.

•ABOUT IOWA STATE (18-4 SU, 10-10-0 ATS, 6-4 Big 12): Ejim shot 20-of-24 from the field, with the 20 made field goals serving as one of nine Big 12 records he set Satuday. He is the only player in a power conference averaging at least 18 points and eight rebounds while also shooting at least 50 percent from the field and 35 percent behind the arc. Ejim, DeAndre Kane and Georges Niang give the Cyclones three players averaging at least 16 points – one of only two teams in the nation with that distinction (Virginia Military Institute).

•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (14-10 SU, 11-10-0 ATS, 6-5 Big 12): The Mountaineers have the firepower in their backcourt to keep pace as Juwan Staten (18.3 points) and Eron Harris (17.5) rank second and tied for third, respectively, in the league in scoring. Staten, whose 35 points on Feb. 1 against Kansas State stood as the most in Big 12 play this season before Saturday, also is among the conference leaders in assists (5.9, second), steals (1.3, fourth) and minutes played (37.5, first). Harris is second in the league with 67 3-pointers and two shy of the school’s sophomore record.

•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa State is the only team in the country to score at least 70 points in every game, although West Virginia was one of three schools to hold the Cyclones under that mark last season.... The Mountaineers rank last in the Big 12 in field-goal percentage defense (44 percent).... Hoiberg’s next victory will tie him with Tim Floyd (81) for the second-most wins by a Cyclones coach in their first four years in the program.... The Cyclones are 0-6 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the spread 499 times, while IOWA ST covered the spread 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 525 times, while W VIRGINIA won 445 times. In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the first half line 493 times, while IOWA ST covered the first half line 463 times. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--W VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus IOWA ST since 1997.
--IOWA ST is 2-0 straight up against W VIRGINIA since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--W VIRGINIA is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA ST since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

•RECENT TRENDS
--ISU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big 12.
--ISU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 20-6 in ISU last 26 vs. Big 12.

--WVU is 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.
--Over is 7-1 in WVU last 8 overall.
--Over is 13-3 in WVU last 16 vs. Big 12.
_______________________________

#723 MIAMI-FLORIDA @ #724 FLORIDA ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Florida State -5.5, Total: N/A) - In-state rivals Miami (Fla.) and Florida State both limp into an Atlantic Coast Conference game on Monday night in Tallahassee. The defending ACC champion Hurricanes have dropped five of their last six games with the only victory a 64-49 nonconference win at home against Norfolk State on Feb. 1 while the Seminoles have dropped four of their last five contests with the only win a 70-50 victory over ACC bottom-feeder Virginia Tech last Wednesday.

This is the second meeting between the two schools this season. Florida State, behind 10 points, six rebounds and four assists from senior guard Ian Miller, won the first one, 63-53, at Miami on Jan. 15. The Seminoles used a 13-0 run during the final four minutes to pull away for the win.

•ABOUT MIAMI (11-12 SU, 8-10-0 ATS, 2-8 ACC): Both of the Hurricanes' ACC wins have surprisingly come on the road -- at North Carolina (63-57) and at Georgia Tech (56-42). Miami, which is 0-6 at home in conference play, has lost its last three ACC games -- at Maryland and home to Pittsburgh and North Carolina State -- by a combined seven points, including a 59-55 overtime setback to the No. 22-ranked Panthers. Senior guard Rion Brown leads the Hurricanes in scoring (14.6) and rebounding (6.1).

•ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (14-9 SU, 12-9-0 ATS, 5-6 ACC): The Seminoles have split two games since Miller, tied for second on the team in scoring (12.7) and the team leader in assists (3.2), suffered an ankle injury in a 53-49 loss at Clemson on Feb. 1. The loss of Miller, also known for his clutch shooting, has forced head coach Leonard Hamilton to give players extended minutes which means the Seminoles could be a bit weary after losing at Maryland, 83-71, on Saturday. Sophomore guard Aaron Thomas, who played 38 minutes in Saturday's loss, leads the team in scoring (13.2) with Miller, who is out indefinitely, and senior forward Okaro White tied for second at 12.7.

•PREGAME NOTES: Thomas is shooting 46.7 percent (25-of-53) from 3-point range.... Brown is averaging 20.3 points over his last four games.... Florida State leads the ACC in blocked shots (5.9).... Florida State is 7-17 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... Miami is 11-3 versus the spread in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST covered the spread 583 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 417 times. *EDGE against the spread =FLORIDA ST. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST won the game straight up 733 times, while MIAMI won 241 times. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST covered the first half line 541 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 414 times. *EDGE against first half line =FLORIDA ST.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA ST is 11-7 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1997.
--FLORIDA ST is 15-7 straight up against MIAMI since 1997.
--10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--MIAMI is 12-10 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA ST since 1997.
--13 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

--Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Florida St.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 13-3 in MIA last 16 overall.
--Under is 7-1 in MIA last 8 road games.
--Under is 8-2 in MIA last 10 vs. Atlantic Coast.

--FSU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Mon. games.
--FSU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 8-3 in FSU last 11 home games.
_______________________________

#725 KANSAS @ #726 KANSAS ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kansas -3.5, Total: N/A) - Ninth-ranked Kansas attempts to match its recent performance against Kansas State when the Jayhawks venture west to face the Wildcats in Monday’s Big 12 contest. The first-place Jayhawks have won nine of their last 10 games and one of the victories was an 86-60 demolition of Kansas State on Jan. 11. The Wildcats are tied for fourth place in the conference race and enter the rematch on a high note after routing red-hot Texas 74-57 on Saturday.

Freshman guard Marcus Foster poured in 34 points in the victory over the Longhorns, the most by a Kansas State freshman since Michael Beasley scored 39 against the Jayhawks late in the 2007-08 campaign. Kansas shot 56.1 percent from the field and committed just seven turnovers in last month’s victory over the Wildcats, but coach Bill Self sees no carryover effect. “I’m sure that they’re doing some things a little differently than they did the first game,” Self said after Saturday’s victory over West Virginia. “I really think the score of the first game is totally irrelevant.”

•ABOUT KANSAS (18-5 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 9-1 Big 12): The Jayhawks are expecting to see an angry bunch of Wildcats after the beatdown they delivered on Kansas State in Lawrence. “I feel like going in, we’re expecting the worst, expecting a hostile environment, expecting not to get any calls,” guard Wayne Selden Jr. told reporters. “But we’ll battle through it.” Selden scored 17 points and made five 3-pointers in the victory over West Virginia and has raised his average to 10.5, fourth on the team behind guard Andrew Wiggins (16 per game), forward Perry Ellis (13) and center Joel Embiid (10.9).

•ABOUT KANSAS STATE (16-7 SU, 13-7-1 ATS, 6-4 Big 12): Foster made 13-of-16 shots in his epic performance against Texas to raise his team-best scoring average to 14.7. That type of efficiency was pleasing to the coaching staff as well as Foster as the talented guard was shooting just 40.1 percent entering the contest. “Just going back through film, I realize I take some questionable shots,” Foster said after joining Beasley and Mike Evans (1974-75) as the only Kansas State freshmen to score 30 in a game. “I just wanted to limit the questionable shots and take better shots.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas has won the last six meetings and is 22-3 against the Wildcats during 11th-year coach Bill Self’s tenure.... Kansas State has held 12 opponents to 60 or fewer points.... Embiid has blocked 60 shots, two off the Kansas freshman mark held by Eric Chenowith (1997-98).... The Jayhawks are 14-5 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Wildcats are 9-22 versus the spread versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last three seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS covered the spread 501 times, while KANSAS ST covered the spread 499 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 595 times, while KANSAS ST won 382 times. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS ST covered the first half line 497 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 464 times. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS is 30-11 against the spread versus KANSAS ST since 1997.
--KANSAS is 38-3 straight up against KANSAS ST since 1997.
--17 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.

--KANSAS is 27-13 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS ST since 1997.
--15 of 28 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.

--Jayhawks are 26-8 ATS in the last 34 meetings.
--Jayhawks are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Kansas St.

--Home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Favorite is 26-8 ATS in the last 34 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--KU is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 10-4 in KU last 14 Mon. games.
--Under is 22-8-2 in KU last 32 road games.

--KSU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--KSU is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
--Under is 14-2 in KSU last 16 home games.

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:37 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

College Basketball Pointspread Underachievers
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Last week I wrote about the four best pointspread teams in the country in college hoops this year – Cleveland State, Villanova, Wichita State and Utah. Between the four, they combined to go 7-1 ATS over the past week, continuing to cover spreads even after doing so consistently for the past three months. In other words, the markets still haven’t caught up with these teams.

This week, I’m taking the opposite approach; examining the very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball. Why are they so bad against the spread? Will they continue to be money losers as February rolls into March? And what statistical profile do these teams have in common that will help us identify them as early as possible next year? Let’s take a look!

I did a version of this column last year at this same time (second week of February). At that time, the single worst pointspread team in all of college basketball was Indiana-Purdue Indianapolis, abbreviated IUPUI. This year, IUPUI isn’t the single worst pointspread team in college hoops only because they’re tied with South Alabama and LaSalle at the bottom of the ATS standings.

This isn’t supposed to happen. In theory, the betting markets are going to gradually de-value squads that aren’t covering pointspreads, making it highly unlikely that the same team can be an absolute bottom feeder ATS two years in a row. But at 5-21 SU, 5-15 ATS, the Jaguars once again have failed to live up to market expectations.

The Jaguars play in the Summit League, on the added board in college hoops – exclusive territory for sharps. The type of bettors who wager on schools like IUPUI aren’t likely to be perusing aggregate ATS records very often. The biggest college basketball betting syndicates are driven by computer generated power rating numbers. If their mathematical calculations say to bet on any particular team in any particular game, they will, plain and simple.

IUPUI has virtually no homecourt edge, failing to cover a single pointspread at home all year. Perhaps they were overvalued after suffering a pair of ‘tighter than expected’ November losses at Missouri and Northwestern along with a SU win over Bradley. Since that win, the Jaguars have covered only two spreads in twelve lined games, despite being underdogs in each and every one of those contests.

IUPUI has a pretty miserable statistical profile, but no one number really stands out. They’re well below average on offense and defense, rebound poorly and commit more turnovers than assists. It’s a fairly standard profile for a bad college basketball team, and bad teams struggle to cover numbers more often than not.

While IUPUI didn’t have any expectations – not even of mediocrity – heading into the season, South Alabama did. These Jaguars returned four starters from a 17 win team last year; a squad that went 14-6 in Sun Belt Conference action and made the CIT postseason tournament.

There were no warning signs of imminent ATS failure as the season began – the Jaguars went 4-4 ATS through their first eight lined games. But to illustrate where they were, value wise, look no further than their second game of the season, when they were only +6 at Texas. South Alabama lost that game by seven, blowing a 14 point halftime lead in the process. Just for comparison’s sake, note that Texas was -6 at home against 16-7 Kansas State two weeks ago. Kansas State would be in the range of an 18-20 point favorite over South Alabama if these two teams met on a neutral floor now. That shows us rather clearly how dramatically the Jaguars were overvalued early!

Since that 4-4 ATS start, the Jaguars have gone 1-11 both straight up and vs. the pointspread. They’ve been favored five times in Sun Belt play, winning outright only once in those five games. And, at 0-fer the season on the highway, losing all nine lined games ATS, the Jaguars lack of experience at the point guard position has clearly been a major detriment to their success. South Alabama’s statistical profile shows more weakness on the offensive end of the court than in any other area.

La Salle was projected to be just a notch or two behind Atlantic-10 heavyweights VCU and St Louis coming into the campaign. The Explorers certainly haven’t been horrible: 4-5 in conference play, 12-11 overall. But they’ve been ATS bottom feeders from Day 1 this year, opening up the campaign by losing eight of their first nine against the number. They’ve been nearly as bad of late, covering only one spread in their last eight ballgames; unable to win by big margins or lose by small ones. Like South Alabama, LaSalle’s statistical profile shows more weakness on the offensive end of the court than in any other area.

You could make a case that Central Florida is the single worst team ATS – on a percentage basis, they’ve been a 20 percent proposition; just 3-12 ATS. But because the three teams listed above have lost more net units (each squad 5-15 ATS), I’ve listed UCF as #4. The Knights were a 20 win team in Conference USA last year and returned four starters. To illustrate their market value to open the campaign, it’s surely worth noting that UCF was favored over Florida State in November. And with an early season SU win as eight point underdogs at Miami-FL, the markets expected good things from Donnie Jones’ Knights.

But the AAC is one heck of a lot better than C-USA, and UCF has been a dramatically overvalued commodity as a result. The Knights have had precious little homecourt edge, covering only one spread in Orlando all year. And an inability to make free throws – as a team, hitting less than 60 percent for the season – has left them on the wrong end of the pointspread standings in conference play. Their lone cover in ten conference games came in a 17 point loss at Louisville when the Knights were catching 19.5.

Major conference schools that are bottom feeders ATS include Boston College, Notre Dame, Pitt and Purdue. BC has been pretty awful from the get-go, opening the season 2-11 ATS, but they’ve been money winners for the better part of the last month. Notre Dame lost leading scorer and assist man Jerian Grant just prior to the start of ACC play and they’ve had no homecourt edge, covering only two spreads in 14 home games. Purdue was an ATS bottom feeder last year as well, unable to make headway in the loaded Big 10.

Pitt is a fascinating team to discuss. Their statistical profile has been too GOOD; ranking among the nation’s elites defensively, particularly against their newfound ACC foes that aren’t used to a Big East style of physical defense. Jamie Dixon’s squad has dominated the glass and hit free throws. And the Panthers offense has been much more efficient than it’s been in recent seasons.

The result of all of those stellar statistics is a market valuation that’s simply been too high. The Panthers spent a good portion of the season ranked among the Top 10 teams in well-respected power ratings from Ken Pom and Jeff Sagarin. So despite a complete absence of signature wins in non-conference play (Stanford and Cincinnati were their only two games with single digit pointspreads and they lost SU to the Bearcats), Pitt entered ACC play valued as a truly elite squad.

That market valuation didn’t decline one iota after they won their first four conference games, three by double digit margins, then took Syracuse to the wire in the Carrier Dome. But Pitt has been a hard-luck ATS squad. They’ve failed to cover spreads by a single basket or less four times in conference play and eight times overall since the season began. Just a little bit of overvaluation due to that stellar statistical profile has cost Panthers backers plenty!

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:37 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

Today's NBA Picks

New Orleans at Toronto

The Pelicans (22-27) head to Toronto tonight to face a Raptors team that is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games against teams with a losing SU record. Toronto is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Raptors favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 10
Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Denver at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 112.827; Indiana 125.452
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 12 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 10; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-10); Under

Game 703-704: New Orleans at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 116.390; Toronto 126.269
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 10; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 7 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-7 1/2); Over

Game 705-706: San Antonio at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 118.753; Detroit 120.350
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Houston at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 123.738; Minnesota 118.307
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 5 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 210
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Boston at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 113.130; Milwaukee 108.199
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 5; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-2); Under

Game 711-712: Philadelphia at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 102.798; Golden State 123.208
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 20 1/2; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 14; 214
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-14); Over

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:37 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

NCAA Basketball Picks

Maryland at Virginia

The Terps (14-10) head to Charlottesville tonight to face a Virginia team that is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games against teams with a winning SU record. Virginia is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-11). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 10
Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 713-714: Providence at Georgetown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 60.857; Georgetown 67.806
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 7; 136
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 5; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-5); Over

Game 715-716: Maryland at Virginia (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 61.087; Virginia 76.564
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 15 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Virginia by 11; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-11); Under

Game 717-718: Iowa State at West Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 69.952; West Virginia 71.190
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 1; 162
Vegas Line: Iowa State 2 1/2; 156
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+2); Over

Game 719-720: Hofstra at James Madison (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 45.395; James Madison 53.012
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: James Madison by 6
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (-6)

Game 721-722: Western Kentucky at Arkansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 56.322; Arkansas State 55.805
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 1
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+3 1/2)

Game 723-724: Miami (FL) at Florida State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 61.995; Florida State 67.084
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 7; 111
Vegas Line: Florida State by 5 1/2; 116 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-5 1/2); Under

Game 725-726: Kansas at Kansas State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 75.782; Kansas State 70.484
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 5 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Kansas by 3 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-3 1/2); Under

Game 727-728: Furman at Western Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 37.964; Western Carolina 54.163
Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 16
Vegas Line: Western Carolina by 13
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (-13)

Game 729-730: Fairfield at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 46.216; Siena 52.819
Dunkel Line: Siena by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 8
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+8)

Game 731-732: Marist at Quinnipiac (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 48.565; Quinnipiac 59.981
Dunkel Line: Quinnipiac by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 8
Dunkel Pick: Quinnipiac (-8)

Game 733-734: Southern Utah at Sacramento State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 35.523; Sacramento State 54.199
Dunkel Line: Sacramento State by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Sacramento State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (-11 1/2)

Game 735-736: Towson at NC-Wilmington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 51.624; NC-Wilmington 49.202
Dunkel Line: Towson by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Towson by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+4 1/2)

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:38 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

Hoop Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

The Spurs are 0-12 ATS (-6.92 ppg) since Jan 11, 2013 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Pistons are 13-0 OU (6.31 ppg) since November 29, 2013 at home when they are not favored by six or more.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nuggets are 13-0 OU (10.38 ppg) since Feb 17, 2012 on the road after Ty Lawson scored fewer than 10 points.

CHOICE TREND:

The Warriors are 0-9 OU (-14.44 ppg) since Dec 07, 2013 after Stephen Curry was the Warriors’ high scorer on the road.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

The Pelicans are 0-8 OU (-8.94 ppg) since Apr 24, 2012 on the road after Eric Gordon shot worse than 33% from the field in a loss.

The Rockets are 0-6 OU (-21.50 ppg) since Nov 09, 2013 after James Harden took more than 20 shots.

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:38 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

StatFox Super Situations

PHILADELPHIA at GOLDEN STATE
Play On - Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units ) 2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -1.3 units )

DENVER at INDIANA
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%), good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 42+ games 126-36 since 1997. ( 77.8% | 54.5 units ) 4-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 4.0 units )

HOUSTON at MINNESOTA
Play On - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (MINNESOTA) in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 97-51 since 1997. ( 65.5% | 40.9 units ) 6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.7 units )

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:38 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

Denver at Indiana, 7:05 ET
Denver: 61-40 ATS after playing a road game
Indiana: 31-19 ATS in all games

New Orleans at Toronto, 7:05 ET
New Orleans: 24-41 ATS after a non-conference game
Toronto: 11-2 ATS off a road loss

San Antonio at Detroit, 7:35 ET
San Antonio: 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3
Detroit: 0-8 ATS in home games after having won 2 of their last 3

Houston at Minnesota, 8:05 ET
Houston: N/A
Minnesota: N/A

Boston at Milwaukee, 8:05 ET
Boston: 14-6 UNDER after a non-conference gam
Milwaukee: 7-15 ATS as a home underdog

Philadelphia at Golden State, 10:35 ET
Philadelphia: N/A
Golden State: N/A

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:38 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

7:00 PM
DENVER vs. INDIANA
Denver is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Indiana is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

7:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TORONTO
New Orleans is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing New Orleans

7:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DETROIT
San Antonio is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Detroit
San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Detroit's last 18 games at home
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio

8:00 PM
BOSTON vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Boston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston

8:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Houston is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

10:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. GOLDEN STATE
Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games at home

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:43 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/10/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________

***** Monday, 2/10/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________________ __________

Betting Notes - Monday
•Hot Teams
-- Pacers won four of their last five games.
-- New Orleans won six of its last nine games; they're 7-1 versus spread in game following their last eight losses.
-- Detroit won its last four home games, but fired its coach yesterday. Spurs won four of their last five games.
-- Celtics won three of their last four games.
-- Rockets won their last five games (4-1 vs. spread).

•Cold Teams
-- Nuggets lost four of their last six games.
-- Raptors lost three of their last four games.
-- Bucks lost eight of last nine games, but covered last four.
-- Timberwolves lost five of their last six games.
-- Golden State is 3-4 in its last seven home games. 76ers lost their last six games (1-5 vs. spread).

•Totals
-- Six of last seven Denver-Indiana games went over total; five of last seven Pacer games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Pelican games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four San Antonio games went over.
-- Six of last eight Boston games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Houston games stayed under.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Philly's last five games.

•Back-To-Backs
-- Pacers are 0-5 versus spread if they played on road night before.
-- New Orleans is 4-6-2 versus spread if it played night before.
-- Celtics are 1-3 versus spread on road if they played at home day before.
-- 76ers are 1-8 versus spread if they lost the night before.

•Series Records
-- Pacers lost five in row, seven of last eight games versus Denver.
-- Raptors won six of last seven games with New Orleans.
-- Spurs won four of their last five games versus Detroit.
-- Bucks won four of last five games with Boston.
-- Rockets won three of last four games versus Minnesota.
-- 76ers won six of last nine games with Golden State.

•Situational Trends of The Day
-- PHILADELPHIA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 100.5, OPPONENT 114.2.

-- DETROIT is 17-2 OVER (+14.8 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season.
The average score was DETROIT 102.8, OPPONENT 104.0.

-- SAN ANTONIO is 45-29 (+13.1 Units) against the 1rst half line after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 50.9, OPPONENT 45.4.

-- SAN ANTONIO is 53-23 UNDER (+27.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 49.1, OPPONENT 46.5.

-- KEVIN MCHALE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was MCHALE 109.7, OPPONENT 100.5.

•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- DENVER is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 107.9, OPPONENT 99.5.

-- TORONTO is 23-6 UNDER (+16.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 93.6, OPPONENT 91.5.

-- PHILADELPHIA is 12-26 (-16.6 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 45.5, OPPONENT 48.7.

-- PHILADELPHIA is 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 52.8, OPPONENT 57.8.

-- DWANE CASEY is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season as the coach of TORONTO.
The average score was CASEY 94.4, OPPONENT 90.1.

•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, revenging a loss versus opponent, off 2 covers where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog.
(66-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.4%, +51.7 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -204.3
The average score in these games was: Team 103, Opponent 91.5 (Average point differential = +11.5)

The situation's record this season is: (8-0, +8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-6, +18.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (208-54, +44.5 units).

-- Play On - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record.
(83-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +53.3 units. Rating = 5*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (62-50 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 101.2 (Average point differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 56 (51.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (25-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (48-15).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (188-132).

-- Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more, after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (4-33)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.8
The average score in these games was: Team 93.6, Opponent 101.7 (Average point differential = -8.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (35.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-5).

-- Play Over - Any team (HOUSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 195.5
The average score in these games was: Team 103.2, Opponent 98.7 (Total points scored = 201.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (57.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (104-62).

-- Play On - Underdogs versus the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team, in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%).
(32-9 since 1996.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.2, Opponent 48.6 (Average first half point differential = -0.4)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).

-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (DENVER) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(140-58 since 1996.) (70.7%, +76.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.6, Opponent 47.6 (Total first half points scored = 95.2)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-6).
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Betting News & Notes Week #16
We are nearing the NBA’s All-Star break and just passed the midway point in terms of games played - also known as hunting season when it comes to NBA head coaches on the hot seat and we have already lost one coach in Detroit's former bench boss Maurice Cheeks. Sometimes a hot seat can push a coach and his team, giving them added line value. Other times, players quit on their coach and it burns everything to the ground – including your bankroll.

StatSystems Sports Systems Analyst William Stillman looks at four coaches who may be getting the pink slip sooner rather than later. And the one big thing these guys all have in common is a sub .500 ATS record, with the four teams below combining to go 85-112-1 ATS - covering just 43 percent of the time.

•Mike Woodson (New York Knicks)
Record: 19-30 SU, 20-29 ATS

If you believe reports circulating over the last couple of days, the time on Mike Woodson’s tenure could be over before next week's All-Star break. The New York Daily News says owner James Dolan met with Woodson following the team’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers and a recent loss to the Milwaukee Bucks may have been the final nail for a team floundering at 19-30 with the league’s second-highest payroll.

•Mike Brown (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Record: 16-33 SU, 19-30 ATS

When you’re starting point guard is asked if the team has quit on you, it doesn’t bode well for your future. Neither does a team allowing 102.5 points per game, including 119 and 124 points back-to-back, when you have hung your career on being a defensive guru. Now that the GM who hired you has been fired, no one can imagine Mike Brown’s second-stint in charge of the Cavs ending in anything but tears (for him).

•Brett Brown (Philadelphia 76ers)
Record: 15-35 SU, 20-30 ATS

By the sounds of things, Brown may quit before he is fired after telling reporters the 76ers rebuilding process is, “much harder," and “something that I didn't judge properly.” There’s no doubt Philly is in tank mode but those recent comments may have Sixers brass rethinking their choice of a head coach who will help them rebuild in a very unforgiving market.

•Marc Jackson (Golden State Warriors)
Record: 30-20 SU, 22-26-2 ATS

Jackson has overachieved as head coach of Golden State until now. But this NBA gig is all about “what have you done for me lately”. After spending money in the offseason and looking like a contender early on, the Warriors are now falling down the Western Conference playoff picture. It would be surprising to see the club dump such a popular coach but it wouldn’t be smart to bet against it if the team keeps sliding.
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Monday's Match-ups

#701 DENVER @ #702 INDIANA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Altitude (Denver), FSN Indiana Line: Pacers -10.5, Total: 199.5) - The Indiana Pacers' killer instinct went missing Sunday in Orlando, but they'll try to rediscover it when they return home to host the Denver Nuggets on Monday. The Pacers, who were unable to put away the lowly Magic in a 93-92 road loss, are looking to avoid losing consecutive games for only the second time this season. They're also trying to avoid their sixth straight loss to the Nuggets, including a 109-96 defeat on Jan. 25 in Denver.

The Pacers suffered from a rare lapse of effort in the second half at Orlando and were outscored 29-18 in the final quarter. "We got a little loose and we just didn't play the game the right way down the stretch," forward David West told the Indianapolis Star. "If you don't do that, you'll get beat." The Nuggets, who are five games behind eighth-place Golden State in the Western Conference, have lost two straight and seven of their last 11.

•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (24-25 SU, 22-27-0 ATS): Denver is likely to be without point guard Ty Lawson (broken rib), which hurts at the offensive end, but the Nuggets' bigger problems are on defense. They just gave up 126 points in a loss to a Detroit team that fired its coach a day later and have allowed 100 or more points in seven straight games and 12 of the last 13. Randy Foye, who slid from shooting guard to the point after Lawson's injury Saturday, has put up big numbers lately with an average of 17.2 points over his past 17 games, and Denver will need him to continue that production while Lawson is sidelined.

•ABOUT THE PACERS (39-11 SU, 31-19-0 ATS): The sky isn't falling in Indiana, as the loss to Orlando snapped a four-game winning streak and the Pacers still own the best record in the NBA. A silver lining from Sunday's loss was Paul George breaking out of a mini slump with 27 points, just the second time in the last eight games he has topped 20. Guard Lance Stephenson has been nursing a sore back but played 40 minutes against the Magic, so his status could be in question in the second game of a back-to-back.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Nuggets have won seven of the last nine meetings in Indianapolis and 15 of the last 18 overall against the Pacers.... The Pacers are an NBA-best 24-2 at home, where they allow just 85.8 points per game.... Denver C J.J. Hickson has recorded double-doubles in 15 of his last 26 games.... Indiana is 42-26 versus the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts over the last two seasons.... The Nuggets are 14-4 against the spread versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the spread 560 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 440 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 701 times, while DENVER won 273 times. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went under the total, while 470 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the first half line 547 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 423 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 515 games went under first half total, while 447 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DENVER is 17-14 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1996.
--DENVER is 17-16 straight up against INDIANA since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--DENVER is 18-14 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--16 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Indiana.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

--Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 6-1-1 in Pacers last 8 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#703 NEW ORLEANS @ #704 TORONTO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN New Orleans, TSN2 (Toronto) - Line: Raptors -7, Total: 193.5) - Two of the NBA's most promising young big men do battle Monday night in Toronto when Jonas Valanciunas and the Raptors entertain Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans. Davis is the superior of the two at this point in his career, but his Pelicans are coming off a 93-81 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. Valanciunas' Raptors are in a better spot, leading the Atlantic Division despite coming off back-to-back losses to Sacramento and the Clippers.

Toronto reaches the 50-game plateau with a somewhat comfortable 2 1/2-game lead over the Nets in the Atlantic. The Raptors finished 2-3 on their five-game Western Conference road trip, and now enjoy one of their cushiest stretches of the year with 11 of their next 15 games coming at the Air Canada Centre. That stretch begins with Monday's visit from a New Orleans team that has cracked 100 points just once in its previous six games.

•ABOUT THE PELICANS (22-28 SU, 23-25-2 ATS): The way that Davis has played so far this season, it's easy to forget that he's just 20 years old. The first-time All-Star is one of only four players averaging better than 20 points and 10 rebounds and leads the league in blocked shots with 133. "He uses all of his abilities to his advantage out there on the basketball court," Raptors forward Patrick Patterson told the Toronto Sun. "He's lanky, can finish above the rim, excellent rebounder and his scoring ability has gotten so much better."

•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (26-24 SU, 30-20-0 ATS): While Davis is getting all the headlines - and rightfully so - Valanciunas has been a solid second-year player in his own right. The 21-year-old will participate in the Rising Stars game during All-Star Weekend, marking the culmination of his emergence as a strong two-way player in the rapidly improving Toronto lineup. "He deserves it," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey told the Star. "We're excited for Jonas. he's an up-and-coming rising star in this league."

•PREGAME NOTES: Toronto has won the last four meetings dating back to early 2011.... Davis averages 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in two career games against the Raptors.... New Orleans is just 3-9 in the tail end of back-to-backs.... The Raptors are 15-5 against the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts this season.... The Pelicans are 4-13 versus the spread in road games second half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 594 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 371 times. *EDGE against the spread =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 764 times, while NEW ORLEANS won 213 times. In 1000 simulated games, 531 games went over the total, while 469 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the first half line 593 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 407 times. *EDGE against first half line =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, 501 games went over first half total, while 499 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW ORLEANS is 24-22 against the spread versus TORONTO since 1996.
--NEW ORLEANS is 27-21 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--26 of 45 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--TORONTO is 24-22 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--23 of 44 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Toronto.

--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--Pelicans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Pelicans are 1-4-1 ATS L6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

--Raptors are 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Raptors are 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
--Over is 7-1 in Raptors last 8 Monday games.
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#705 SAN ANTONIO @ #706 DETROIT
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, FSN Southwest (San Antonio), FSN Detroit - Line: Spurs -4, Total: 205.5) - The Detroit Pistons have won four of their last six games but still went ahead and fired coach Maurice Cheeks on Sunday and assistant coach John Loyer is expected to lead the team into Monday’s home game against the San Antonio Spurs. Cheeks was 21-29 in his first season in Detroit and the 50-game stint is the fifth-shortest for an NBA coach in the last quarter-century. The Pistons are ninth in the Eastern Conference, a half-game behind Charlotte for the final playoff spot.

Detroit received big efforts from point guard Brandon Jennings (season-high 35 points to go with 12 assists) and forward Josh Smith (30 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists) in Cheeks’ final game, a 126-109 win over Denver. San Antonio has won four of its last five games and is 3-1 to start the nine-game rodeo road trip. The Spurs may not know until close to game time whether point guard Tony Parker (back) will be available. Parker missed a game last week with back issues and then sat out the final quarter of Saturday’s 104-100 victory over Charlotte.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (37-14 SU, 24-27-0 ATS): San Antonio has been decimated by injuries, and one of the players taking advantage of the situation is 25-year-old guard Patty Mills. With Parker ailing, Mills scored 18 of his season-best 32 points in the fourth quarter and was 10-of-13 shooting overall. “His motor is always going,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said afterward. “He doesn’t need me to do anything to get him going. He’s a competitor. He’s played on the Australian Olympic team for I don’t know how many years. He’s a competitor. He’s not impressed with the NBA. He just comes and plays.”

•ABOUT THE PISTONS (21-29 SU, 22-27-1 ATS): Detroit has won its last two games by an average of 16.5 points and posted a season best for points in Saturday’s victory over Denver, which served to make it odd timing for Cheeks to be fired. Owner Tom Gores released a statement that contained the following comment: “Our record does not reflect our talent and we simply need a change.” Gores didn’t feel the team was making enough progress with Cheeks at the helm despite four double-digit victories over the last six games. Published reports point to the Pistons making a run at Lionel Hollins to see if the former Memphis coach is interested in the gig.

•PREGAME NOTES: Detroit has won six of its last 10 home games against Spurs.... San Antonio hopes to have C Tiago Splitter (calf) and G Marco Belinelli (back) for the contest.... Jennings is averaging 25.1 points over his last nine games.... The Spurs are 3-13 against the spread versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.... Detroit is 39-20 versus the spread in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting less than 21 free throws/game since 1996.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 515 times, while DETROIT covered the spread 466 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 614 times, while DETROIT won 360 times. In 1000 simulated games, 551 games went over the total, while 449 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 507 times, while DETROIT covered the first half line 445 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 513 games went over first half total, while 487 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DETROIT is 20-18 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 23-16 straight up against DETROIT since 1996.
--20 of 37 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--DETROIT is 19-19 versus the first half line when playing against SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--19 of 36 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Spurs are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Detroit.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.

--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 Monday games.
--Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Over is 8-1 in Spurs last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

--Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more.
--Over is 9-1 in Pistons last 10 Monday games.
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#707 HOUSTON @ #708 MINNESOTA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, NBA TV, CSN Houston, FSN North (Minnesota) - Line: Rockets -4.5, Total: 208) - The Houston Rockets are shooting for a season-high sixth straight win as they head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves on Monday. The Rockets survived a lackluster effort in a 101-95 win at Milwaukee on Saturday to move a season-high 17 games above .500. The Timberwolves are headed in the other direction, having lost three straight and five of six to slip six games behind eighth-place Golden State in the Western Conference.

Even as they've matched their hottest streak of the season, the Rockets have been disappointed with their inconsistency, especially their difficulty in putting away the lowly Bucks. "We're too up and down right now," guard Jeremy Lin told reporters. "It would be nice for us to build leads and really dominate from start to finish." Minnesota knows the feeling, as the Timberwolves have bobbed just below the .500 mark for most of the season and are in danger of suffering a season-high fourth consecutive loss.

•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (34-17 SU, 26-23-2 ATS): Houston has a ton of offensive firepower and has shown it off recently. Dwight Howard has been dominant of late, recording double-doubles in eight of the past 10 games and averaging 22.2 points and 11.7 rebounds over that span, and leading scorer James Harden has scored at least 22 points in his first three games back from a two-game absence with a bruised thumb. Center Omer Asik (thigh, knee) returned to the court against Milwaukee in his first action since Dec. 2 and recorded five rebounds in 11 minutes.

•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (24-27 SU, 26-25-0 ATS): Minnesota has been without power forward Kevin Love (25.6 points, 13.3 rebounds) for two of the past three games, further depleting a once-dominant frontcourt that is also missing center Nikola Pekovic (ankle). Playing without the two big men — and shooting guard Kevin Martin (thumb) — completely changes the team's dynamic and places more of the scoring burden on defensive-minded players like Corey Brewer and Ricky Rubio. Love, Martin and Pekovic combined for 62.6 points per game.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Rockets are averaging 108.6 points and shooting 50.8 percent from the field during their winning streak... The Timberwolves are 1-12 in games decided by four points or fewer.... Houston has won 12 straight games when scoring at least 100 points.... Minnesota is 1-10 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... The Rockets are 11-1 against the spread after four straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 677 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 323 times. *EDGE against the spread =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 566 times, while HOUSTON won 410 times. In 1000 simulated games, 539 games went under the total, while 441 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 634 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 366 times. *EDGE against first half line =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, 512 games went under first half total, while 460 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 34-29 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 40-27 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--34 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--HOUSTON is 32-31 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--37 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Rockets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Rockets are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Minnesota.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.

--Under is 4-0-1 in Timberwolves last 5 Monday games.
--Under is 6-0 in Timberwolves last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Timberwolves last 5 after allowing 100 points or more.
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#709 BOSTON @ #710 MILWAUKEE
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, CSN (Boston), FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee) - Line: Celtics -2, Total: 191) - The Boston Celtics will look to get back on track after a woeful shooting performance in Sunday's loss to Dallas when they face host Milwaukee on Monday. Boston shot less than 30 percent for most of the game against the Mavericks, finishing at 35.9 percent thanks to a late run that masked how bad a showing it was. While the lowly Bucks might seem a cure-all for most teams looking to rebound, there are no guarantees, as Boston is the only team Milwaukee has beaten more than once this season.

The Bucks have held the dubious distinction of the NBA's worst record nearly all season and have yet to put together even a two-game winning streak. Milwaukee's latest win came last Monday, edging New York 101-98 but it has since dropped two straight and may be forced to face the Celtics without center Larry Sanders, who exited Saturday's loss with blurred vision after an inadvertent elbow from James Harden on a contested rebound attempt. The Bucks have been plagued by injury and illness all season but guard O.J. Mayo, who has missed eight of the last games battling the flu and conditioning issues, won't blame the team's performance on any of those woes, telling reporters, "It's definitely not an excuse for us not winning."

•ABOUT THE CELTICS (18-34 SU, 25-26-1 ATS): Boston will face the Bucks without the services of point guard Rajon Rondo, who will sit on a scheduled day of rest after nearly notching a triple-double Sunday against Dallas. Rondo, who has averaged 14 points, 11 assists and 7.7 rebounds in his last three games, is no longer on a minutes restriction as he eases his way back into the rotation, still recovering from last February's knee surgery but will not play in both ends of back-to-backs according to coach Brad Stevens. "I think erring on the side of caution," Stevens told the Boston Herald recently, "is probably the right move."

•ABOUT THE BUCKS (9-41 SU, 19-31-0 ATS): The timing of Sanders' injury couldn't have been worse for the player or the team, coming one game after the fourth-year pro notched a career-high 25 points and a season-best 15 rebounds in a loss to Denver Wednesday. Frontcourt partner John Henson stepped up in Sanders' absence with his best game in nearly a month, finishing with 14 points and 10 rebounds in 41 minutes. Mayo, who is eying a return "before the All-Star break", specifically praised the play of Sanders and several other young Bucks in forecasting a bright future for the team, telling the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "As long as you see those pieces are getting better, it's promising."

•PREGAME NOTES: Milwaukee has beaten Boston in five of the last seven meetings after the Celtics had run off six straight in the head-to-head series.... The Bucks were without Mayo, G Luke Ridnour (back), and Fs Caron Butler (ankle), Ersan Ilyasova (back) and Ekpe Udoh (ankle) against Houston. All are day-to-day, along with Sanders, with the exception of Butler, who is out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain.... Rondo recorded his 4,000th career assist on Sunday, finishing the game with 4,010 for his career, which ranks sixth all-time in Celtics history and is 19th among active players.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the spread 614 times, while BOSTON covered the spread 361 times. *EDGE against the spread =MILWAUKEE. In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE won the game straight up 552 times, while BOSTON won 409 times. In 1000 simulated games, 538 games went under the total, while 446 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 591 times, while BOSTON covered the first half line 378 times. *EDGE against first half line =MILWAUKEE. In 1000 simulated games, 552 games went under first half total, while 448 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MILWAUKEE is 38-24 against the spread versus BOSTON since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 35-29 straight up against BOSTON since 1996.
--31 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--MILWAUKEE is 31-30 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON since 1996.
--33 of 62 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Celtics are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Monday games.

--Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 Monday games.
--Over is 6-1 in Bucks L7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
_______________________________

#711 PHILADELPHIA @ #712 GOLDEN STATE
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, CSN Philadelphia, CSN Bay Area (Golden State) - Line: Warriors -14.5, Total: 214.5) - The Golden State Warriors have been experiencing an inconsistent stretch, while the Philadelphia 76ers have just been consistently bad. The Warriors host the 76ers on Monday, hoping to put an uneven 6-8 stretch behind them after losing 122-109 to the Phoenix Suns on Saturday. Philadelphia has lost six straight outings and suffered one of the worst defeats in franchise history, 123-78 to the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday.

The 76ers trailed by as many as 56 points in the loss to the Clippers – a margin that also happens to be the same as the worst loss in team annals, 149-93 to the Seattle SuperSonics on March 6, 1993. Philadelphia trailed 30-5 just past the midway point of the opening quarter and was 8-of-52 shooting in the first half before finishing at 27 percent. Golden State expects to be without forward David Lee (shoulder, hip) for the third straight game and center Andrew Bogut (shoulder) is questionable after also missing the last two games.

•ABOUT THE 76ERS (15-37 SU, 20-32-0 ATS): Philadelphia was uncompetitive from the opening tip while being humiliated by the Clippers. The 76ers shot just 15.4 percent from the field in the first half – the lowest percentage by any team in any half all season – and coach Brett Brown turned the focus toward stemming the embarrassment. “We hoped to go compete at a level where we could win a quarter,” Brown said of his halftime message to his squad. “Everybody’s got pride and you want to represent your team, and coach your team, well. You don’t feel good sitting on the sideline as that is unfolding but it did and we’ll move on.”

•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (30-21 SU, 22-27-2 ATS): Veteran Andre Iguodala had his best outing of the season when he scored 32 points against his former team back in November. Iguodala spent eight seasons with the 76ers before being dealt to Denver prior to last season and he was on fire with a career-best seven 3-pointers in a 110-90 victory. He struggled against the 76ers in two outings with the Nuggets last season – scoring 24 total points – but was much more at ease in this year’s first game against his former club. Iguodala is averaging just 9.6 points and the Warriors are 9-4 when he scores in double digits.

•PREGAME NOTES: Golden State G Stephen Curry had 18 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds when the Warriors posted the win in Philadelphia on Nov. 4.... Sixers G Tony Wroten scored 21 against the Clippers and is averaging 18.2 points over the last five games.... Warriors F Harrison Barnes scored 23 points against the Suns for his fourth 20-point performance of the campaign.... The Sixers are 13-26 versus the spread when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.... Golden State is 10-1 against the spread versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 605 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the spread 395 times. *EDGE against the spread =GOLDEN STATE. In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE won the game straight up 870 times, while PHILADELPHIA won 111 times. In 1000 simulated games, 816 games went under the total, while 184 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 543 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the first half line 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 727 games went under first half total, while 248 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GOLDEN STATE is 18-15 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 17-16 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--GOLDEN STATE is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--20 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--76ers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.

--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

--Clippers are 1-5 ATS L6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 Sunday games.
--Over is 8-0 in Clippers L8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:45 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

College Basketball Information

Providence (even) beat Georgetown 70-52 at home Jan 8, ending 8-game series skid; Friars lost last five visits here, by 10-7-2-9-9 points. Hoyas are 2-3 as home favorites, 3-3 SU, winning by 7-17-8 points- they won last two games after a 5-game skid. Big East home favorites of more than 4 points are 16-10 vs spread. Providence lost three of its last four games; they're 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 30-11-6 points.

Virginia won its last five games with Maryland, winning last two here by 27-3 points; Cavaliers are 1-1 vs spread in ACC, 4-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 23-12-15-20-10. Maryland won three of last four games; they're 0-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 20-24-9-12 points- favorites are 5-1 vs spread in their ACC road games. ACC double digit home favorites are 5-8 vs spread.

Iowa State swept West Virginia by 2-9 points LY; Cyclones won last three games overall but are 1-7 vs spread in last eight- they're 2-3 away from home, winning last road game in triple OT at Oklahoma St. West Virginia won last three games, covered four of last five; they won their last three home games, by 6-10-5 points. Big X home teams are 3-5 vs spread when spread was less than 4 points.

James Madison won two of last three games with Hofstra, after losing previous 12 series games; Pride won six of last seven games here, but lost five of last six games overall- they're 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 7-18-18-8 points. JMU lost three in row, seven of last nine games; they're 1-3 at home in CAA, with all four games decided by 4 or less points. CAA home favorites are 13-24 against spread.

Western Kentucky (-5) beat Arkansas State 82-77 in double OT Jan 18, its 8th win in last 11 series games, but Hilltoppers lost last two visits to Jonesboro by 8-14 points. WKU won last six games overall, are 5-0 SU and ATS on Sun Belt road. Sun Belt home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-9 vs spread. ASU won two of three at home in Sun Belt, losing to Troy when Trojans made 14-27 from the arc.

Florida State (-1) won 63-53 at Miami Jan 15, after being down 5 with 10:23 left; Seminoles won eight of last 11 games with Hurricames, going 4-1 in last five played here. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-15 vs spread. FSU lost four of last five games, covered one of its last seven- they're 2-3 as home faves. Road team is 9-1 vs spread in Miami's ACC games; six of their 10 ACC games were decided by 6 or less.

Kansas (-11.5) pounded Kansas State 86-60 at home Jan 11- their 22nd win in last 25 series games; Jayhawks won four of last five visits to the Little Apple, but last three wins were by 2-6-4 points. Wildcats are 5-0 at home in Big X, 3-2 vs spread as Big X dog. Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-4-1 vs spread. Kansas is 3-1 as road favorite, with only conference loss in ten games at Texas.

Western Carolina is 2-3 in its last five games, 1-5-1 vs spread in its last seven; they're 2-1-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 21-12-3-9 points, with loss to Davidson. Furman lost last four games but covered four of last five games as road underdog- their road losses are by 8-2-7-15-15 points. WCU won six of its last eight games with Furman. SoCon double digit home favorites are 3-11 vs spread.

Streaky Marist won its last three games by 2-14-7 points; they're 3-3 as road underdogs, losing road games by 9-9-7-6-13 points- they got first road win at Rider Thursday. Quinnipiac is won three of last four, is 3-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 4-12-5-9-14-21, with a loss to Canisius. Bobcats played on Saturday, had two less days to prepare for this. MAAC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-17 vs spread.

Fairfield is 2-11 in MAAC but covered last three games as a road dog; Stags are 0-6 on road, losing away games by 4-19-26-9-3-8 points (4-2 as road dogs). MAAC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-17 vs spread. Patsos was ejected in Siena's loss at St Peter's Friday; Saints are 3-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 15-9-17-4 points, losing to both Iona/Quinnipiac. Stags won six of last eight series games.

Southern Utah is 0-19 vs D-I teams, one of worst teams in country, but they've covered last seven games- they're 6-1 as Big Sky road dogs, with last four road losses by 7 or less points. Sacramento State won its last three games, covered last four; they're 1-1 as home favorites- underdogs covered four of Hornets' five Big Sky home games. Big Sky double digit home favorites are 3-11 against the spread.

NC-Wilmington lost its last 14 games, losing at Hofstra Saturday after they blew 14-point halftime lead; Seahawks lost last four games against Towson, losing by 5-5-13-7 points. UNCW is 0-4 SU at home, but three of four losses were by 5 or less points. Towson won its last four games, is 2-1 on CAA road, with only loss at Delaware. CAA home teams are 8-16 vs spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:45 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

Big Monday Action
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Florida State vs. Miami

As of early this morning, most betting shops had Florida State (14-9 straight up, 12-9 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point favorite.

FSU has lost five of its last seven games and is mired in a 1-6 ATS slide. The Seminoles got spanked 83-71 at Maryland on Saturday as 4.5-point underdogs. Senior guard Ian Miller (12.7 points per game, 3.2 assists per game) missed a second straight game with a sprained ankle and he's 'questionable' tonight vs. Miami.

Leonard Hamilton's team is No. 51 in the RPI Rankings but its recent slump has it in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. The 'Noles have lost six of eight games against RPI Top-50 opponents and they're 4-9 vs. RPI Top-100 foes. Their best wins came over UMass and VCU.

Miami (11-12 SU, 8-10 ATS) has lost five of its last games, including Saturday's 56-55 home loss to North Carolina State as a five-point 'chalk.' Rion Brown scored a team-high 20 points.

UM is No. 108 in the RPI Rankings. The Hurricanes are 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 and 3-9 versus the Top 100. Their best wins are at North Carolina and against Arizona State on a neutral court.

When these ACC adversaries met in South Florida on Jan. 15, FSU shook off a four-point halftime deficit to capture a 63-53 win as a one-point road underdog. Miller finished with 10 points, six rebounds and four assists. In the losing effort, Brown and Donnavan Kirk had 21 points apiece.

UM has been an underdog 10 times, compiling a 6-4 spread record with three outright wins.

FSU owns a 5-3 spread record in eight lined home games. The 'Noles are just 3-4 ATS in seven games as single-digit favorites, however.

Miami won both head-to-head meetings between these teams last season, including a 64-58 win over FSU in Tallahassee as a six-point road favorite.

The 'under' is 13-7-1 overall for FSU, 5-3 in its home games.

The 'under' has been a major money maker in Miami games, producing a 13-4 overall record.

ESPNU will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Kansas at Kansas State

When these in-state rivals met at Phog Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence on Jan. 11, Kansas (18-5 SU, 12-10-1 ATS) cruised to an 86-60 blowout win as an 11.5-point home favorite. The 146 combined points jumped 'over' the 133.5-point total. KU's Andrew Wiggins scored a game-high 22 points, while Wayne Selden Jr. finished with 20 points. Nino Moore had a team-best 12 points for the Wildcats.

As of early this morning, most spots had Kansas favored by 3.5 points.

Kansas State (16-7 SU, 13-7-1 ATS) cooled off a hot Texas team by smashing the Longhorns 74-57 Saturday as a 3.5-point home favorite. Freshman guard Marcus Foster was the catalyst with 34 points on 13-of-16 shooting from the field. Foster, who averages a team-best 14.7 PPG, drained 5-of-8 attempts from 3-point land.

Bill Self's team hooked up its backers in Saturday's 83-69 home win over West Virginia in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Mountaineers were ahead of the number for nearly the entire game, but a made free throw and two blocked shots from Joel Embiid in the final minute secured the ATS cover for the Jayhawks. Embiid finished with 11 points and 12 rebounds, while Wiggins and Selden scored 19 and 17 points, respectively. The 152 combined points slipped 'over' the 150-point total.

Kansas has beaten K-State in six consecutive meetings both SU and ATS.

Bruce Weber's team has won 12 of its 13 home games while posting a 7-3-1 spread record. The Wildcats are 4-3 ATS in seven games as underdogs. In their only home 'dog situation, K-State beat Oklahoma State 74-71 as a 5.5-point puppy.

KSU senior guard Will Spradling has been on fire from beyond the arc over the last five games, draining 12-of-20 attempts (60%).

The 'under' is 14-6 overall for K-State, 8-2 in its home games.

The 'over' is 14-8 overall for KU, 11-3 in its last 14 games.

KU owns a 3-2 record both SU and ATS in five games as a road 'chalk.'

Tip-off is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart was issued a three-game suspension for shoving a fan late in Saturday's loss at Texas Tech. The Cowboys lost their fourth straight game both SU and ATS. Smart (17.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG) won't play at Texas, against Oklahoma and at Baylor. Travis Ford's team looked like a Final Four contender in November and December, but this team is complete disarray right now. I took the Red Raiders as 6.5-point underdogs and recommend that bettors place OSU near the top of the fade list.

SMU improved to 19-5 overall and 8-3 in the AAC when it ended Cincinnati's 15-game winning streak with Saturday night's 76-55 home win. The Mustangs easily took the cash as 4.5-point favorites. In his second season, Larry Brown most likely has SMU on its way to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993.

Baylor is another team that I've been going against with success recently. The Bears got thumped Saturday night at Oklahoma to fall to 2-8 in the Big 12. I was all over the Sooners as five-point home favorites. Scott Drew's squad is one of the most underachieving teams in the country, losing eight of its last 10 games while limping to a 2-7-1 spread record.

St. John's is hot at the perfect time. After beating Creighton 70-65 as a 2.5-point home underdog, the Red Storm has won six of its last seven both SU and ATS. Four of those outright victories have come in underdog situations.

Duke freshman sensation Jabari Parker exploded for career highs with 29 points and 16 rebounds in Saturday's win at Boston College.

**TheGame** · 02-10-2014, 11:45 AM

Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

StatFox Super Situations

SOUTHERN UTAH at SACRAMENTO ST
Play On - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SOUTHERN UTAH) revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points, off 2 covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

FURMAN at W CAROLINA
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (FURMAN) in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after a loss by 15 points or more 117-161 over the last 5 seasons. ( 42.1% | 71.6 units ) 22-25 this year. ( 46.8% | 18.1 units )

MIAMI at FLORIDA ST
Play Under - Home teams against the total after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) 59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units ) 1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

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Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/10/2014

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