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Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/3/2014

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  • Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/3/2014

    NBA

    Hot teams
    -- Washington won four of last six home games, covered four of its last five games overall.
    -- Miami won four of last five games, covered two of last six. Pistons won last two games by 16-17 points, after losing previous four games.
    -- Knicks won/covered four of their last five games.
    -- New Orleans won four of its last five games.
    -- Memphis won its last six games (5-1 vs spread). Thunder won ten of their last eleven games.
    -- Clippers won five of their last six games.
    -- Raptors won five of their last seven games.
    -- Chicago won three of its last four road games.

    Cold Teams
    -- Indiana split its last six games (1-5 vs spread). Magic lost six of their last eight games (1-4 last five vs spread).
    -- Portland lost its last three road games by 13-18-15 points.
    -- 76ers won/covered once in their last six games. Brooklyn lost its last three games, two by one point.
    -- Bucks lost their last six games (1-5 vs spread).
    -- Spurs are 3-5 in last eight games (2-8 vs spread last ten).
    -- Mavericks are 4-5 SU in last nine games. Cleveland won/covered once in its last seven games.
    -- Nuggets lost five of their last seven games.
    -- Jazz lost four of their last six games.
    -- Kings lost their last seven games (3-3-1 vs spread).

    Series records
    -- Pacers won six of last seven games with Orlando.
    -- Wizards won three of last four games with Portland.
    -- 76ers lost last three visits to Brooklyn by 3-21-36 points.
    -- Heat won 10 of last 12 games with Detroit (5-6 vs spread last 11).
    -- Knicks won their last seven games with Milwaukee.
    -- Spurs won nine of last ten games with New Orleans.
    -- Grizzlies won five of last six games with Oklahoma City.
    -- Mavericks won five of last six games with Cleveland.
    -- Clippers won seven of last ten games with Denver.
    -- Jazz won eight of last ten games with Toronto
    -- Bulls won eight of their last ten games with Sacramento.

    Totals
    -- Four of last five Orlando games stayed under total.
    -- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Portland games.
    -- Four of last five Philly road games stayed under; four of Brooklyn's last five games went over.
    -- Five of last seven Miami games went over the total.
    -- Five of last six New York games went over the total.
    -- Four of last five San Antonio games stayed under.
    -- Nine of last ten Memphis games stayed under total; three of last four Thunder games went over.
    -- Six of last seven Cleveland games stayed under total.
    -- Seven of last ten Clipper games went over the total.
    -- Over is 4-1-1 in Utah's last six home games.
    -- Last four Chicago games stayed under the total.

    Back to backs
    -- Orlando is 3-4 vs spread on road if it played the night before.

  • #2
    Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/3/2014

    NCAA Basketball Picks

    Notre Dame at Syracuse

    The Irish come into their contest tonight against Syracuse carrying a 6-1 ATS record in their last 17 games as an underdog of 12 1/2 to 15 points. Notre Dame is the pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has the Orange favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+12). Here are all of today's games.
    MONDAY, FEBRUARY 3
    Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST
    Game 723-724: Northeastern at Delaware (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 52.438; Delaware 56.547
    Dunkel Line: Delaware by 4
    Vegas Line: Delaware by 7
    Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (+7)
    Game 725-726: Xavier at Villanova (7:00pa.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 64.413; Villanova 71.948
    Dunkel Line: Villanova by 7 1/2; 153
    Vegas Line: Villanova by 10; 148
    Dunkel Pick: Xavier (+10); Over
    Game 727-728: NC-Wilmington at Drexel (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 45.202; Drexel 54.575
    Dunkel Line: Drexel by 9 1/2
    Vegas Line: Drexel by 11
    Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+11)
    Game 729-730: Notre Dame at Syracuse (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 63.895; Syracuse 73.767
    Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 10; 124
    Vegas Line: Syracuse by 12; 130 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+12); Under
    Game 731-732: Georgetown at DePaul (9:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 63.364; DePaul 60.318
    Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 3; 135
    Vegas Line: Georgetown by 5 1/2; 141
    Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+5 1/2); Under
    Game 733-734: Iowa State at Oklahoma State (9:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 69.490; Oklahoma State 77.938
    Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 8 1/2; 154
    Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 5 1/2; 159
    Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-5 1/2); Under
    Game 735-736: Iona at Monmouth (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Iona 57.824; Monmouth 53.387
    Dunkel Line: Iona by 4 1/2
    Vegas Line: Iona by 6 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+6 1/2)
    Game 737-738: St. Peter's at Manhattan (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 44.948; Manhattan 62.348
    Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 17 1/2
    Vegas Line: Manhattan by 13 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-13 1/2)
    Game 739-740: Fairfield at Rider (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 45.388; Rider 56.868
    Dunkel Line: Rider by 11 1/2
    Vegas Line: Rider by 9 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Rider (-9 1/2)
    Game 741-742: Montana at Montana State (9:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Montana 48.166; Montana State 45.266
    Dunkel Line: Montana by 3
    Vegas Line: Montana by 1
    Dunkel Pick: Montana (-1)
    Game 743-744: South Alabama at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 48.339; Georgia State 64.822
    Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 16 1/2
    Vegas Line: Georgia State by 12 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (-12 1/2)
    Game 729-730: Samford at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Samford 43.117; Furman 44.211
    Dunkel Line: Furman by 1
    Vegas Line: Samford by 1
    Dunkel Pick: Furman (+1)
    Game 751-752: Hampton at Morgan State (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 49.907; Morgan State 55.490
    Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 5 1/2; 133
    Vegas Line: Morgan State by 4; 140 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Morgan State (-4); Under
    Game 753-754: Prairie View A&M at Alabama A&M (9:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 37.947; Alabama A&M 40.267
    Dunkel Line: Alabama A&M by 2 1/2; 138
    Vegas Line: Alabama A&M by 5 1/2; 133
    Dunkel Pick: Prairie View A&M (+5 1/2); Over

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/3/2014

      Today's NBA Picks

      Memphis at Oklahoma City

      The Thunder look to bounce back from their loss at Washington on Saturday and come into their contest tonight against Memphis carrying a 30-13 ATS record in their last 43 games following an upset defeat. Oklahoma City is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
      MONDAY, FEBRUARY 3
      Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST
      Game 701-702: Orlando at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 110.054; Indiana 123.462
      Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 13 1/2; 185
      Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 15 1/2; 190 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+15 1/2); Under
      Game 703-704: Portland at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Portland 119.787; Washington 125.806
      Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6; 210
      Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 1 1/2; 205
      Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2); Over
      Game 705-706: Detroit at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.924; Miami 125.373
      Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 11 1/2; 212
      Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9; 207 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Miami (-9); Over
      Game 707-708: Philadelphia at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 110.288; Brooklyn 117.604
      Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7 1/2;
      Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10 1/2; 206
      Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+10 1/2); Under
      Game 709-710: New York at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: New York 119.083; Milwaukee 108.199
      Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11; 192
      Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 195 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: New York (-6 1/2); Under
      Game 711-712: Memphis at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 122.076; Oklahoma City 132.276
      Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10; 196
      Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 190
      Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7 1/2); Over
      Game 713-714: San Antonio at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 118.708; New Orleans 121.014
      Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 199
      Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 193 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+4); Over
      Game 715-716: Cleveland at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 115.030; Dallas 120.849
      Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6; 200
      Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 9; 205
      Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+9); Under
      Game 717-718: Toronto at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 119.896; Utah 120.571
      Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 1; 188
      Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3; 193
      Dunkel Pick: Utah (+3); Under
      Game 719-720: LA Clippers at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 122.450; Denver 117.060
      Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 222
      Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 216
      Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3); Over
      Game 721-722: Chicago at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.628; Sacramento 116.575
      Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 188
      Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 194
      Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1 1/2); Under

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/3/2014

        Hoop Trends - Monday
        By Vince Akins
        VegasInsider.com

        ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

        The Pacers are 11-0 ATS (10.23 ppg) since May 17, 2012 at home after a game in which they had more turnovers than assists but no more than 25 turnovers.

        OU TREND OF THE DAY:

        The Heat are 0-11 OU (-12.27 ppg) since Dec 04, 2010 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit win on the road in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

        PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

        The Mavericks are 0-10 OU (-11.60 ppg) since Jun 07, 2011 after Dirk Nowitzki scored at least 30 points at home.

        CHOICE TREND:

        The Nets are 13-0-1 OU (9.46 ppg) since Feb 01, 2013 at home after Joe Johnson was not the Nets’ high scorer in a loss.

        ACTIVE TRENDS:

        The Bulls are 0-8 ATS (-9.56 ppg) since Mar 07, 2012 on the road after Carlos Boozer scored fewer than 10 points.

        The Spurs are 0-9-1 ATS (-12.95 ppg) since Mar 08, 2013 after Boris Diaw shot better than 66% from the field in a home win.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/3/2014

          StatFox Super Situations

          PHILADELPHIA at BROOKLYN
          Play Against - Any team (BROOKLYN) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog 236-144 since 1997. ( 62.1% | 77.6 units ) 2-5 this year. ( 28.6% | -3.5 units )

          MEMPHIS at OKLAHOMA CITY
          Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days against opponent tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days 24-3 over the last 5 seasons. ( 88.9% | 19.9 units )

          SAN ANTONIO at NEW ORLEANS
          Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in February games 57-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.5% | 29.5 units )

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/3/2014

            7:00 PM
            ORLANDO vs. INDIANA
            Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
            Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
            The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indiana's last 10 games
            Indiana is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games

            7:00 PM
            PORTLAND vs. WASHINGTON
            Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
            Portland is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
            Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
            Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

            7:30 PM
            PHILADELPHIA vs. BROOKLYN
            The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road
            Philadelphia is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
            Brooklyn is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Philadelphia
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

            7:30 PM
            DETROIT vs. MIAMI
            Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
            Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
            Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
            Miami is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home

            8:00 PM
            NEW YORK vs. MILWAUKEE
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games
            New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
            Milwaukee is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
            Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

            8:00 PM
            MEMPHIS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
            The total has gone OVER in 13 of Memphis's last 17 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
            Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
            Oklahoma City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Memphis
            Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

            8:00 PM
            SAN ANTONIO vs. NEW ORLEANS
            San Antonio is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing New Orleans
            The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Antonio's last 13 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
            New Orleans is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games

            8:30 PM
            CLEVELAND vs. DALLAS
            Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
            Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
            Dallas is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games at home
            The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 13 games at home

            9:00 PM
            LA CLIPPERS vs. DENVER
            LA Clippers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
            LA Clippers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
            Denver is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Clippers
            The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 games when playing LA Clippers

            9:00 PM
            TORONTO vs. UTAH
            Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
            Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games
            Utah is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home

            10:00 PM
            CHICAGO vs. SACRAMENTO
            Chicago is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
            Sacramento is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
            Sacramento is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Chicago

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Basketball Handicapping Info. 2/3/2014

              College Basketball Pointspread Juggernauts
              By Teddy Covers
              Sportsmemo.com

              The Super Bowl is in the rear view mirror after Sunday’s huge Seattle blowout, which can only mean one thing – college hoops is on center stage for the next eight weeks. I’ve been writing game previews for ESPN.com/Insider, but I’ve yet to write a true college basketball overview column so far this season. It’s time!

              I’m going take a look at the four very best regular board pointspread teams in the country in this week’s column. Elite level teams aren’t necessarily pointspread winners, and bottom feeders can cash ticket after ticket if the betting markets set numbers that allow them to hang within the number as big underdogs. And the very best pointspread teams tend to be under-the-radar type squads, like the single best ATS team in college hoops thusfar in the 2013-14 campaign.

              Cleveland State has a decent record, sitting in a second place tie in the Horizon League standings with a 6-3 mark in conference; 15-9 SU overall. If the NCAA tournament started today, Gary Waters’ Vikings wouldn’t even sniff an at-large bid – they’ll need to win the league tournament to go dancing next month. And yet Cleveland State leads the nation with 16 pointspread covers in 21 lined games.

              The Vikings showed us early that they were capable of exceeding expectations, in large part thanks to their defensive effort. They faced Kentucky at Rupp Arena in Lexington in November. Cleveland State shot less than 36 percent from the floor. They took 20 fewer free throws than the Wildcats did and were outrebounded by seven boards. Yet as 24 point underdogs, they led at the half and hung tough for the full 40 minutes, losing by only seven.

              Basically, Cleveland State hasn’t stopped covering since. They’ve also managed to stay under the radar; retaining their market value. The Vikings don’t get many national TV opportunities, so bettors don’t see them regularly. And despite consistently cashing winning bets, they haven’t gone on any extended ATS winning streaks to attract market attention, with their longest ATS winning streak only four games long.

              There are four stats that stand out for Cleveland State. First they don’t turn the ball over excessively, getting steady play at the point from returning starter Charlie Lee, who led the Horizon League in assists last year, as well as from Penn State transfer Trey Lewis. They’ve been strong defensively, particularly from beyond the arc. The Vikings clean up the glass, averaging a +5 rebounding margin.

              The fourth stat is three -oint shooting. Cleveland State is ranked #11 in the country, hitting better than 40 percent of their tries from beyond the arc. Put it all together and suddenly it’s not so hard to understand why a team that has played to their expected form (the Vikings were projected to be looking up at Green Bay in the Horizon League standings, which they are) have developed into pointspread juggernauts. And as we’ll see, their statistical recipe for ATS success is not unique when we look at other top money earners.

              When it comes to a straight percentage of pointspreads covered this year, Utah stands at the top of the list even after their four point loss in OT as two point underdogs at Colorado last Saturday. The Utes are only 3-6 SU in PAC-12 play. Like Cleveland State, that’s right where they were supposed to be – only USC and Washington State were projected to finish below the Utes this year, and those are the only two teams currently beneath them in the standings.

              Yet the Utes have been a pointspread machine, cashing at an 80 percent clip for the full season. Again, the signs were there early. Despite facing a litany of weak foes, the Utes vastly exceeded expectations in both non-conference step-up games. They lost by only two at Boise as double digit underdogs, then beat up BYU by 17, also as an underdog. The trend towards covering as a dog is still very much in play – their only non-cover all year when catching points came in that aforementioned OT loss to Colorado.

              What do the stats tell us? For one, they tell us that Utah takes good shots and makes those shots at a high percentage. Among major conference teams, only Gonzaga and Kansas have shot better than Utah’s 50 percent clip this year. They rank #12 nationally in free throw shooting percentage; covering more than once due to their ability to hit shots at the charity stripe in the final minute of the game.

              Like Cleveland State, the Utes defensive stat that really stands out is their three point shooting percentage allowed, ranked in the Top 20 nationally. Like Cleveland State, Utah has a strong positive rebounding margin of nearly eight boards per game. And like Cleveland State, Utah has a pair of steady hands manning the point, with both JUCO-transfer Delon Wright and last year’s returning starter Brandon Taylor avoiding the ATS killing plague of ‘turnovers in bunches.’

              It’s not just under-the-radar teams at the top of the ATS standings. In fact, the next team on the list – Wichita State – has both been nationally ranked and reasonably hyped all year. Two years ago, the Shockers won the NIT. Last year, they reached the Final Four in the Big Dance. And despite modest personnel losses, Wichita State was lumped with mid-major juggernauts Gonzaga and VCU in the preseason rankings (#16) and they’ve moved steadily up ever since.

              When a team opens the season 23-0, they’re supposed to cover pointspreads. But when a well-hyped mid-major coming off a Final Four campaign covers spreads for three months at a 75 percent clip; it’s noteworthy. The statistical profile? Excellent free throw shooting, strong rebounding and stifling defense from both inside and outside the arc, quite comparable to what we’ve seen from fellow ATS juggernauts Cleveland State and Utah. It is worth noting, however, that Wichita St went 0-2 ATS last week, failing to cover a pair of inflated double digit pointspreads; an indicator that the market may have finally caught up with them.

              The last team that I am going to profile here is a squad that was obviously way better than projections from Day 1 for anyone watching – the Villanova Wildcats. ‘Nova was projected to be a middling team in the new Big East; a notch or two behind Creighton, Georgetown and Marquette.

              The Wildcats first made some real noise in the Bahamas over Thanksgiving, pulling upsets over Kansas and Iowa on back-to-back nights. But the betting markets didn’t really appreciate what those two wins said about Jay Wright’s squad; a 20 win team last year that got bounced from the Big Dance in their opener. ‘Nova won their next four all by 19 points or more, just blowing teams out in December. Following an ugly loss at Syracuse – a game that they led by 18 early, but got outscored 71-37 the rest of the way – ‘Nova was again disrespected by the betting markets. The result? Six pointspread covers in their last eight games, a team that hasn’t stopped cashing winning bets, despite their lofty national ranking and ample TV time.

              Villanova’s statistical profile has many commonalities with the other three teams on this list. The Wildcats make free throws. They dominate the glass. They play defense, holding foes to 40 percent shooting for the season. And they don’t commit turnovers in bunches.

              These four teams are the top four regular board ATS squads this season. Their statistical profile is eerily similar. But their respective situations are completely different. Cleveland State is a national afterthought; a solid but unspectacular mid-major that has simply been priced wrong from the get-go. Utah is a relatively weak squad that hasn’t been quite as bad as they were thought to be. Wichita State was expected to be elite and they’ve been elite, but the markets under-reacted to their extraordinary success. And Villanova has been elite from Day 1, but the markets took a very long time to reflect their abilities.

              Comment

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