NBA Betting info. 1/14

[TheGame]

Tuesday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Knicks at Bobcats

New York: 14-22 SU, 16-20 ATS
Charlotte: 15-23 SU, 20-16-2 ATS

The Knicks are quietly riding a four-game winning streak, while limiting each opponent to 92 points or less during this hot stretch. New York travels to Charlotte with no rest following Tuesday's contest against Phoenix, as Mike Woodson's team has covered six consecutive games. The Knicks and Bobcats are playing for the third time this season, as the road team has won each meeting, including a 101-91 victory by New York as 3½-point favorites in early November.

Charlotte has taken several steps backwards since a modest three-game winning streak in mid-December, dropping nine of its past 11 contests. The Bobcats haven't exactly been pointspread gold of late, going 1-5 ATS the last six games, while playing seven of its previous eight contests on the highway. Charlotte's defense has taken a hit as well, giving up at least 103 points in five of the past six games, resulting in five 'unders.'

Kings at Pacers

Sacramento: 13-22 SU, 15-19-1 ATS
Indiana: 29-7 SU, 24-12 ATS

The Kings finished off their five-game homestand with three consecutive victories, including back-to-back blowouts over the Magic and Cavaliers. Sacramento put together the biggest rout of the season by dominating Cleveland on Sunday, 124-80 to easily cash as three-point favorites. The Kings are playing only their 14th road game of the season, but have covered three straight on the highway, including a 110-106 triumph at Houston on New Year's Eve as 10-point underdogs.

The Pacers have been off since Friday's whipping of the Wizards, 93-66 as nine-point home favorites. Indiana has limited 12 straight opponents to less than 100 points, while riding a seven-game 'under' streak. Frank Vogel's club has fared extremely well against Western Conference foes, putting together an 8-2 SU/ATS record, including a 4-0 SU/ATS at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

Thunder at Grizzlies

Oklahoma City: 28-9 SU, 20-17 ATS
Memphis: 17-19 SU, 16-19-1 ATS

Since losing point guard Russell Westbrook to a knee injury on Christmas, the Thunder owns a 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS record the last nine games. Oklahoma City is coming off a 101-85 victory over a dreadful Milwaukee squad on Saturday, but the Thunder has dropped consecutive road contests to Utah and Denver. The Grizzlies knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs last season, but OKC picked up a modicum of revenge in the first meeting this season in a 116-100 win at FedEx Forum in December.

Memphis is seeking its first three-game winning streak since mid-November, as the Grizzlies topped the Suns and Hawks at home over the weekend. In Sunday's triumph over Atlanta, the Grizzlies topped the 100-point mark for the fifth straight game, while hitting the 'over' in five consecutive contests. Memphis has covered six straight overall, including four in a row in the underdog role.

Cavaliers at Lakers

Cleveland: 13-24 SU, 17-20 ATS
Los Angeles: 14-23 SU, 18-18-1 ATS

Following a humbling 44-point loss at Sacramento on Sunday, the Cavaliers look to bounce back with a trip to Los Angeles. Cleveland has won just three road games in 19 tries, with one of those victories coming at the start of this highway swing at Utah on Friday night. In spite of the ugly defeat to the Kings, the Cavs have cashed in seven of the last 10 games, while finishing 'under' the total in six of the previous seven contests overall.

The Lakers are pretty much cooked this season with their myriad of injuries, as Los Angeles has lost each of its last four games by at least 13 points. How bad has it been for Mike D'Antoni's club? The Lakers were listed as double-digit underdogs in each of the last three contests and failed to cash in those defeats to the Mavericks, Rockets, and Clippers. Since the start of December, the Lakers have lost seven of nine home games, while covering just three times in this stretch.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting info. 1/14

This Week's Best NBA Spot Bet Opportunities
By Steve Merril
Covers.com

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

Memphis beat Oklahoma City in a playoff series last season, but the Thunder beat the Grizzlies 116-100 earlier this year. The Grizzlies will be looking to avenge that home loss Tuesday night. If Memphis is successful in doing so, then its game the very next night in Milwaukee will be a difficult spot.

That game against the Bucks also precedes a return home where the Grizzlies play a pair of games on their home court. Memphis has come on strong recently, going 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS over its last 11 games. The Grizzlies’ four losses have come by eight, four, three, and two points.

Lookahead spot

The Los Angeles Clippers have a pair of back-to-back games on the East Coast this week - the first two stops of a seven-game road trip. The Clippers will play in New York against the Knicks Friday night, and then against the Pacers in Indiana Saturday. They beat the Knicks easily earlier this season, so that’s not the game they have their eyes on.

Indiana beat the Clippers in Los Angeles 105-100 back on December 1. The Pacers controlled that game, leading by as many as 14 points while the Clippers only lead was by a single point. Los Angeles will be looking to atone for that home loss to Indiana, so it may lack focus the night before in New York.

Schedule spot

The Miami Heat will be a focused team on Wednesday when they play the Wizards in Washington, D.C. The Heat will be going into that game off four full days of rest, while the Wizards will be playing their fourth game in six nights.

Miami will also be playing off back-to-back road losses at New York (102-92) and at Brooklyn in double overtime (104-95). Miami is starting a four-game road trip with this game, so it will be important for it to start off with a win. Washington lost 103-93 in Miami back on November 3.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting info. 1/14

NBA Moneyburners
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Last week, I took an in-depth look at five of the biggest moneymakers in the NBA through the first half of the season. This week I’m going to focus on the teams at the other end of the spectrum – bottom feeders and disappointments. I’ll break down the three biggest money-losers of the season thusfar. And I’ll take a look at a ‘morpher’; a team playing significantly worse than current market projections.

I’ll start with the three teams that can be collectively called ‘the hopeless trio’. It’s hard to make money betting on the very worst teams in any sport, and the NBA is certainly no exception. And there’s no question who the very worst team in the NBA is this year, because they have both the worst SU record in the league (7-29) and the worst pointspread mark (12-24 ATS). That team? The Milwaukee Bucks!

Bucks head coach Larry Drew has never coached a bottom feeder before. He walked into a good situation in Atlanta with the Hawks, who made the playoffs all three years that he was coaching the team. Here in Milwaukee, the playoffs seem light years away, as Drew muddles through a lost season with a mismashed roster of cast-offs, has-beens and never-will-bes.

The Bucks single biggest problem is that they can’t find the bottom of the basket, ranked dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. When Pistons cast-off Brandon Knight is your leading scorer, you know it’s going to be a long year. Their second biggest problem is that they can’t rebound, ranked #29 in the NBA in rebounding margin – only the Lakers are worse. Their third biggest problem is that they haven’t been able to stay healthy and Drew hasn’t found anything resembling a consistent rotation. 14 different players have started at least two games this year. Only three of those players have started more than half the Bucks games; none have started more than 25 of their 36 contests.

But more than any other factor, the Bucks biggest problem is that they expect to lose just about every time they hit the court. Milwaukee just doesn’t seem to have that ‘dig down deep for stops and points in the fourth quarter’ mentality That’s why they’ve been at the worst ATS at home; a team playing in front of a half empty arena in front of fans that haven’t tasted meaningful success in more than a decade.

At some point, the betting markets are supposed to catch up with bad teams, even when they’re tanking. We haven’t seen any indication that the markets have caught up with how bad Milwaukee is, even after their dismal first two months of the season. As I write this very early Monday morning, the Bucks are in the midst of another dismal slide, just 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight ballgames.

I heard LVH Assistant Sportsbook Director Jeff Sherman on the radio this past week, talking about the Bucks. To paraphrase, he basically said that in every game, the books are giving the Bucks an extra point or two, because that’s the only way to attract any Milwaukee money whatsoever – wiseguys looking for value. But even power rated as the worst team in the NBA, bettors haven’t found much value riding the Bucks, and I’m not convinced that’s going to change any time soon.

Like Milwaukee, the Orlando Magic have been riddled with injuries this year. And like the Bucks, statistically, the Magic’s biggest problems are on the offensive end of the court. At least their starting backcourt is settled, with Jameer Nelson and Aaron Afflalo combining for serviceable guard play. Rookie Victor Oladipo is promising, as are big men Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris – this situation isn’t as hopeless as the one in Milwaukee these days.

Yet, like the Bucks, the Magic have been at their absolute worst ATS at home, a homecourt where they’ve gone 3-12 ATS in 15 games since their 3-0 start. And Orlando’s recent road trip showed clearly that they’re not fighting these days, losing all four games by 16 or more while failing to cover a single pointspread. A team playing like it’s already the dog days of March here in January cannot be expected to come back from the dead.

The Philadelphia 76ers are another team that everybody knew was going to be among the worst in the NBA this year. Their entire offseason was spent ridding themselves of veterans with extended contracts and setting themselves up for a strong lottery pick in the 2014 draft. But, like the Magic, the Sixers were competitive, even pretty good, for the first weeks of the season. In their first three games, Philly upset the Heat, Wizards and Bulls. They knocked off the Cavs and the Rockets soon after.

But the betting markets didn’t make any huge adjustments on Philly even after their hot start. They’ve only been favored twice all year – against the two teams I’ve already discussed (Orlando and Milwaukee). The Sixers aren’t a good offensive team by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s their defense that has been off-the-charts bad.

76ers head coach Brett Brown knows that this is going to be a long rebuilding process: “We have a thin team. We’re not deep. We’re not experienced. We have some things that matter physically.” That’s not exactly a quote that inspires much confidence moving forward.

So here we have three teams that were expected to be very bad, and all three have been very bad. What makes them so awful against the spread? Simple – they’re worse than just bad and they have very little incentive to dig down deep during these extended losing skids. Even catching an extra point or two every night hasn’t changed these teams collective ATS fortunes. I expect when we look back at the end of the year, the Bucks, Magic and 76ers will all remain at or near the very bottom of the pointspread standings.

The Miami Heat won the NBA title last June. The won the NBA title the previous June as well. And we can expect Miami to be in the mix for a championship again this year – only the Pacers appear capable of keeping Eric Spoelstra’s squad from their fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. Everyone knows how good Miami is; that they are capable of stepping up and beating any team in the league.

But Miami isn’t playing for a title right now – they’re playing out the string of a long regular season, with absolutely nothing to prove in January, February or March. And when the defending champs play with a ‘biding our time till we put it together’ mentality, they’re not likely to make money for their supporters on any kind of a consistent basis.

There’s no ‘Big Three’ in Miami any more – it’s LeBron and his supporting cast. Dwayne Wade continues to battle nagging injuries. Chris Bosh has put up the lowest rebounding and assist numbers of his career thusfar this season. The Heat are still a great offensive team, ranked #2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency with 109 points per 100 possessions. And they still rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency as well.

But despite those lofty stats, and despite a 27-10 SU record, the Heat have been consistent money losers. The two-time defending champs have a target on their backs every time they take the floor, consistently facing an opponent that brought their A-game. Since their 9-7 ATS start, the Heat are just 7-14 ATS dating back to early December, including a 1-5 ATS run as road favorites and a 2-7 ATS mark as home favorites. Miami has been an overvalued commodity for more than a month now, another trend that has the potential to continue producing dividends in the weeks and months to come.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting info. 1/14

NBA's Weekly Betting News and Notes
By Covers.com

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Jan. 5-11

Hottest ATS - Toronto Raptors (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS)

Sound familiar? The Raptors have been by far the best cover play since the end of the Christmas break, going a perfect 9-0 ATS as they continue to impress since trading Rudy Gay to Sacramento. After looking strong in narrow losses at Miami and Indiana - far and away the two strongest teams in the Eastern Conference - Toronto returned to its winning ways with runaway home victories over the Detroit Pistons and Brooklyn Nets. Expect the good times to continue this week, with home games against Milwaukee and Minnesota and a road game versus Boston on the docket.

Coldest ATS - Philadelphia 76ers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

After putting together one of the unlikeliest four-game road winning streaks in the NBA this season - rattling off victories against the Lakers, Denver, Sacramento and Portland over a seven-day span - the 76ers crashed back to Earth last week. Despite getting points in all four games, Philadelphia fell victim to its sieve-like defense, losing all four contests by double digits while surrendering an average of 113.3 points per contest. The 76ers will look to bounce back this week, hosting the Charlotte Bobcats and Miami Heat before hitting the road to face the Chicago Bulls.

Best Over play - Detroit Pistons (2-3 SU, 4-1 O/U)

It was a busy week for the Pistons, who were on both ends of some of the more entertaining games of the week. After dropping three straight games to open the stretch - surrendering 112 points to both the Memphis Grizzlies and the Toronto Raptors - The Pistons averaged 112 points in consecutive victories over the Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns. Detroit will now enjoy a much-needed rest, with six days between its triumph over the Suns and the opener of back-to-back games against the Utah Jazz and the Washington Wizards.

Best Under play - New York Knicks (4-0 SU, 4-0 O/U)

A team boasting Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Andrea Bargnani will never be thought of as a defensive juggernaut - making last week's numbers positively boggling. New York played all four of its games under the total, with all but one of those games falling more than 10 points below. New York has struggled on offense all season, and enjoyed only a modest boost in that area last week; the big impact came on defense, where the Knicks held all four opponents below 93 points. New York has a four-game week ahead, with home games against Phoenix and the Clippers and road dates in Charlotte and Indiana.

Surveying the schedule:

The Denver Nuggets have surged back above the .500 mark on the strength of a five-game winning streak that has renewed optimism in Colorado. Denver faces an interesting test over its next five games, with all five opponents having beaten the Nuggets in their previous meeting earlier in the season. That includes a relatively tame three-game schedule this week, with road games against the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors preceding a home date with Cleveland.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting info. 1/14

NBA

Hot teams
-- Knicks won their last five games, three by 10+ points.
-- Indiana won four of last five games (6-1 last seven HF). Kings won their last three games, by 4-20-44 points.
-- Grizzlies won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Bobcats lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Thunder are 3-4 in their last seven games.
-- Cavaliers lost seven of last ten games, covered one of last four on road. Lakers lost ten of last eleven games, covered once in last seven.
Series records
-- Knicks won six of last eight games with Charlotte.
-- Kings lost three of last four visits to Indiana, losing by 5-7-8 points.
-- Grizzlies won four of last five games with Oklahoma City.
-- Cavaliers lost last three games at the Lakers, by 55-5-20 points.
Totals
-- Five of last six Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Sacramento road games went over; six of Indiana's last seven home games stayed under.
-- Last six Memphis home games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Lakers home games stayed under total.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting info. 1/14

Today's NBA Picks

Oklahoma City at Memphis

The Grizzlies host an Oklahoma City team that is coming off a 101-85 win over Milwaukee and is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a victory of more than 10 points. Memphis is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+1). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 14 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: New York at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.955; Charlotte 117.810 Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 3; 193 Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 1; 188 Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-1); Over

Game 503-504: Sacramento at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 118.825; Indiana 126.494 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 188 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 10 1/2; 194 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+10 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Oklahoma City at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 120.492; Memphis 124.887 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 194 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+1); Over

Game 507-508: Cleveland at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.644; LA Lakers 108.640 Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 9; 196 Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 3; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3); Under