NBA Betting Info. 1/6

[TheGame]

NBA

Hot teams
-- 76ers won last four games, all as 7+-point underdogs. Minnesota covered five of its last seven road games.
-- Nets won last two games, but are 4-6 vs spread in last ten games as a home favorite.

Cold Teams
-- Hawks lost three of their last four games (4-6 last 10 AU).
-- Clippers are 3-4 in their last seven games; Chris Paul is out for six weeks. Magic lost six of their last eight road games (9-6 AU).

Series records
-- 76ers lost their last four games with Minnesota.
-- Brooklyn lost six of last eight games with the Hawks.
-- Clippers lost eight of last ten games with Orlando.

Totals
-- Five of last six Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta road games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Clipper games went over; last six Orlando road games stayed under the total.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 1/6

Today's NBA Picks

Atlanta at Brooklyn

The Hawks head to Brooklyn tonight with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Nets. Atlanta is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, JANUARY 6 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Minnesota at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 122.029; Philadelphia 108.903 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 13; 224 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 218 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Atlanta at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 120.732; Brooklyn 115.217 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 193 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 3 1/2; 197 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: Orlando at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 113.568; LA Clippers 127.310 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 13 1/2; 218 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 1/6

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA
Play Against - Underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite
81-40 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.9% 37.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

NBA MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a home loss against a division rival
108-72 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.0% 46.3 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 2.8 units )

NBA MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games
49-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.0% 27.0 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% 2.7 units )

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 1/6

NBA Top 5: Best bets heading into 2014

With the calendar officially flipped to 2014, several NBA teams will try to carry over the good value they provided bettors in the final two months of 2013.

Each of these clubs has a reason for consistently covering the spread, and those reasons vary greatly from one team to another. Expect to see the ATS totals adjusted to compensate for their respective early-season success - but that will come too late for many satisfied bettors who were rewarded for their faith.

Here are the five best bets through the first two months of the NBA season (with records ATS):

Phoenix Suns (23-8-1)

The Suns have been the best ATS play through the opening 32 games, thanks to a surprisingly potent offense ranked eighth in the NBA at 103.7 points per game. The backcourt duo of Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic has been a revelation for the Suns, combining to average 36.8 points and 11.7 assists per game while shooting 48.7 percent from the field. That has allowed Phoenix to boast one of the best point differentials in the league (plus-3.2).

Indiana Pacers (23-9-0)

Even with oddsmakers keenly aware of the Pacers' ability to play lockdown defense, Indiana has covered the spread more frequently than any other team in the Eastern Conference. Indiana owns the best point differential in the league (plus-9.2) on the strength of a better-than-expected defensive showing and an offense that has been buoyed by the emergence of star-in-the-making Paul George and versatile guard Lance Stephenson.

Charlotte Bobcats (20-13-2)

Charlotte has been one of the more surprising teams in the NBA so far, becoming a strong ATS play as head coach Steve Clifford extracts maximum defensive value out of his roster. The Bobcats can't score any points but they're allowing the third-fewest in the league and have been one of the most responsible teams in the league on offense, turning the ball over just 12.4 points per game. Things have leveled off of late, with Charlotte 3-4-1 ATS in its last eight.

Portland Trail Blazers (20-14-0)

The Trail Blazers have provided a double dose of betting value, routinely covering the spread while emerging as a reliable "over" option (25-9-0 O/U). Offense has been the catalyst for the Blazers' rise to ATS prominence; they average a whopping 108.7 points per game, nearly two points more than the next best team (Minnesota). Portland is averaging a hair under 40 percent from 3-point range, which is likely unsustainable but impressive nonetheless.

Los Angeles Clippers (21-15-0)

Lob City is populated by plenty of happy bettors in the early going, with the Clippers coming into the weekend second in the Western Conference in covers. Everyone expected Los Angeles to be sound offensively - and it has, averaging 104.8 points - but it has also been passable on the defensive end, limiting the opposition to 100.1 points - the fifth-best rate in the conference. Covering will be a lot tougher with point guard Chris Paul out a month.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 1/6

NBA Moneymakers!
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

The NBA regular season is less than two weeks away from the mid-way point of the campaign. But with the focus on football, the betting markets (and my own writing) have paid scant attention to the pro hoops ranks. That ends here.

This week I’m going to focus on the good NBA teams; the moneymakers! I’ll break down some of the best money earners in NBA thusfar and assess their profit making potential moving forward. And I’ll take a look at a pair of ‘morphers’; teams that are playing significantly better than current market projections.

The Phoenix Suns are at the top of any moneymaker list; a classic example of how preseason expectations can affect ATS results for months, even when those expectations were clearly not right from Day 1 of the season!

Phoenix was lined in the range of 20 wins coming into the season. The markets expected a major tank from first year, first time head coach Jeff Hornacek’s squad, angling for ping pong balls in the NBA lottery, not for a playoff spot. But that clearly wasn’t the case, right from the get-go – they blew out Portland on opening night.

The Suns got great play from their dual-point guards Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic. They got some low post defense and rebounding from second year center Miles Plumlee, with lottery pick Alex Len a complete non-factor. The Suns second unit, led by the Morris twins, became a unit of strength. And Phoenix opened up the season by going 7-0-1 ATS in their first eight games, an obvious ATS success story.

But despite a start that turned some heads in betting circles, the Suns have remained an undervalued commodity ever since, covering the spread at a 75% clip through their first 32 games; successful in every role – at home and on the road; as favorites and as underdogs. Their longest ATS losing streak of the entire year is only two games long. But without ‘household name’ stars or national TV gigs, we’ve yet to see the markets catch up with Phoenix; a hot team from the start that has managed to retain their value.

It’s no surprise that the Indiana Pacers were going to be very good this year. After all, the Pacers reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year and gave Miami a legitimately tough test in their seven game series. They were lined in the range of 55 wins; an elite team. So how does an elite team that everybody knows is going to be good come out of the gate with a 23-10 ATS mark in their first 33 games; like Phoenix, a squad that hasn’t lost more than two in a row against the spread all year?

My answer is two-fold: focus and defense. Frank Vogel had the Pacers thinking about home court advantage in the playoffs from Day 1 of training camp, and the Pacers have used all kinds of perceived slights as a smaller market team (like not being scheduled on Christmas Day) as additional motivators. That has led to extraordinary focus, a ballclub that just hasn’t had many weak efforts this year.

And the Pacers championship level defensive effort has covered more than a few pointspreads. Indiana has the best defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA; barely allowing 93 points per 100 possessions. Opposing teams have struggled to hit ‘spread covering’ shots against them again and again in the latter stages of the fourth quarter.

The Charlotte Bobcats spent the last two years as the epitome of a bottom feeder, the very worst team in the NBA both SU and ATS over that span. And the Bobcats are a long way from being ‘good’ this year, despite their current status as the #7 team in the Eastern Conference playoff race. What the Bobcats have been this year is competitive, and competitive bottom feeder teams cover pointspreads.

I’ve been impressed with first-year, first-time head coach Steve Clifford, who has established a defense and rebounding mindset from a squad that previously had none. And two personnel keys for Charlotte – the addition of low post force Al Jefferson and the emergence of Kemba Walker as a go-to scorer and distributor during crunch time – have kept Charlotte from the steady string of blowout losses that doomed them in recent campaigns.

Charlotte’s competitive nature has been on display in one particular role – as road underdogs. They opened the season with a pair of double digit losses in their first two tries in that role. Since that time, the Bobcats have been an ATS machine; 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 tries as road dogs. It’s a streak that the markets haven’t really caught on to, offering continued moneymaking potential moving forward.

When we look at positive pointspread morphers in recent weeks, two teams stand out, and they both stand out for the same reason – improved defense! The Golden State Warriors are known for their stellar three point shooting, most notably Steph Curry’s ridiculous stroke. But the Warriors current nine game winning streak has been every bit as much about improved defensive effort as it’s been about hot shooting.

Andre Igoudala is a lockdown perimeter defender and the key to coach Mark Jackson’s defense on the wing. But Igoudala got hurt and missed nearly a month of playing time. Since his return to the lineup, the Warriors defensive efficiency numbers have improved by leaps and bounds; currently ranked #4 in the NBA. The other key to their defense has been the steady improved play from low post force Andrew Bogut; finally healthy and in rhythm from the start of the season. As long as Igoudala and Bogut stay healthy, the Warriors are likely to enjoy continued ATS success.

The other stand-out morpher in recent weeks is the Toronto Raptors. Dwane Casey’s squad was 6-12 SU when they traded away Rudy Gay, a move that seemingly signified a tank approach to the rest of the season. Instead, the exact opposite has occurred. Toronto didn’t just get better immediately after Gay left town – they got a lot better at the same time the markets were devaluing them!

The markets certainly didn’t appreciate the veteran talent Toronto acquired in the Gay trade. John Salmons has become their lockdown perimeter defender. Patrick Patterson has blossomed in a new town, gobbling up rebounds. Greivis Vasquez has had an immediate impact backing up Kyle Lowry at the point. A trio of Sacramento ‘afterthoughts’ have dramatically out-produced the guy they were traded for!

Toronto currently ranks #7 in defensive efficiency; a number that has improved significantly since the trade. They’ve notched an 11-3 ATS mark in 14 games since trading Gay, and even the losses can be explained away. Two of the three defeats came against mighty San Antonio, the third came in a ‘blown double-digit fourth quarter lead’ game against the aforementioned Bobcats. As a smaller market team with very limited national TV exposure and without superstars, the Raptors have the real potential to retain their pointspread value long term moving forward.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 1/6

This Week's Best NBA Bets
Covers.com

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Dec. 29-Jan. 4

Hottest ATS - Toronto Raptors (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

What a difference a month makes. The Raptors were struggling mightily before trading shot-happy small forward Rudy Gay to the Sacramento Kings; since then, Toronto has been on fire, climbing to the top of the Atlantic Division while pushing its record above the .500 mark. Toronto hasn't just covered the spread - it has left it in the dust, earning five consecutive double-digit victories highlighted by back-to-back triumphs over the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers. Toronto has a difficult start to its week with road games in Miami and Indiana but closes with home dates against Detroit and Brooklyn.

Coldest ATS - Houston Rockets (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)

Things went a bit sour last week in Houston, where the Rockets struggled with their normally potent offense. The Rockets were thumped 117-86 against an Oklahoma City Thunder team playing without starting point guard Russell Westbrook, then returned home and were promptly stunned 110-106 by the lowly Sacramento Kings. Only a two-point win over visiting New York - a game in which Houston came in as an 11 1/2-point fave - prevented a winless week. Houston hosts the Lakers before embarking on a pivotal four-game road trek through the East.

Best Over play - San Antonio Spurs (2-2 SU, 3-0-1 O/U)

Oddsmakers have already adjusted for the Spurs' surprisingly high-powered offense - but they may have to move the total even higher with San Antonio scoring at a ridiculous clip. The Spurs are 4-0-1 O/U over their past five games, having reached the 110-point plateau in four of them. San Antonio has been doing it with typically efficient shooting, ranked second in the league in both field-goal percentage (48.7) and 3-point percentage (39.4). The Spurs have a short week coming up, visiting the Memphis Grizzlies and hosting the rival Mavericks on back-to-back nights.

Best Under play - Indiana Pacers (2-1 SU, 0-3 O/U)

The Pacers know that, with a league-average offense at best, they'll need an airtight defense to challenge the Miami Heat for the Eastern Conference title. Indiana put their defensive chops on display last week, limiting the Cleveland Cavaliers to 76 points in a one-sided win and defeating New Orleans 99-82 four days later. Slide in a 95-82 loss to the Toronto Raptors in between, and the Pacers have gone Under in six of their last seven games entering Sunday's action. Indiana has four games this week, visiting Cleveland and Atlanta and hosting Toronto and Washington.

Surveying the schedule:

The Golden State Warriors are the hottest thing going in the NBA, coming into Sunday with an eight-game winning streak. That includes four straight victories to open their season-long seven-game road trip which wraps up this week with games in Washington, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. With the Golden State offensive attack in mid-season form and the defense putting together some impressive stretches, Golden State could run the table on its road trip - and is rewarded with seven of its next nine games at home.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 1/6

Hoop Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

The Clippers are 0-13 ATS (-14.08 ppg) since Dec 11, 2006 at home on Monday after playing on Friday and Saturday, if they lost last game by more than a points.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The 76ers are 0-13 OU (-11.35 ppg) since Jan 10, 2001 with at most one day of rest when they have won and covered their last four games and their opponent did not lose by more than five last game.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Magic are 8-0 OU (24.31 ppg) since Feb 04, 2011 on the road after Jameer Nelson was the Magic’s high scorer at home.

CHOICE TREND:

The Timberwolves are 7-0 OU (17.71 ppg) since Jan 25, 2012 after Kevin Love scored at least 30 points in a home loss.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

The Clippers are 7-0 OU (15.36 ppg) since Mar 25, 2004 at home after Matt Barnes scored fewer than 10 points in a road loss.

The 76ers are 9-0 OU (19.89 ppg) since May 16, 2012 at home after Spencer Hawes scored fewer than 10 points on the road.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 1/6

7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. BROOKLYN
Atlanta is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Brooklyn
Atlanta is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 7 games

10:30 PM
ORLANDO vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Orlando's last 15 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Orlando is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games when playing Orlando
LA Clippers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 1/6

Monday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Wolves at 76ers

Minnesota: 16-17 SU, 18-15 ATS
Philadelphia: 12-21 SU, 15-18 ATS

The 76ers started the season with the lowest win total in the league at 17. Philadelphia won its first three contests, before going on a 5-21 over a 26-game stretch. Now, the Sixers are riding a four-game winning streak heading back to Wells Fargo Center after knocking off the Blazers on Saturday night, 101-99 as 12½-point road underdogs.

Philadelphia lost its first two games on a six-game road swing at Milwaukee and Phoenix, but grabbed four consecutive victories (all as a heavy 'dog) against the Nuggets, Lakers, Kings, and Blazers. Even though the Sixers own of the worst defenses in the league, Brett Brown's team actually improved recently by allowing 104 points or less in each of the past four victories ('Under' went 3-1).

The Wolves wrapped up a three-game homestand after losing a pair of close games to the Mavericks and Thunder. Oklahoma City rallied from a 13-point deficit in the second half to stun Minnesota, 115-111, the second loss to the Thunder this season. Minnesota hit the 'over' for the fifth time in six games, as the Wolves have scored at least 111 points five times during this stretch.

The last time the Wolves and Sixers met up in December, Philadelphia jumped out to a 39-20 lead after just one quarter. The Sixers were limited to 38 points in the second half as the Wolves came back to beat Philadelphia, 106-99. Rick Adelman's club failed to cash as 12 ½-point favorites, as the Sixers shot 52% from the floor in the defeat.

Hawks at Nets

Atlanta: 18-16 SU, 19-15 ATS
Brooklyn: 12-21 SU, 14-19 ATS

The Hawks and Nets are going in different directions at the moment as Atlanta has lost two straight while Brooklyn has won two in a row. Atlanta fell short in Saturday's 91-84 defeat at Chicago as five-point underdogs, shooting just 37% from the field and missing 20 three-point attempts. The Hawks have lost seven of their past nine games away from Philips Arena, while only covering three times in this stretch.

Brooklyn is still behind the eight-ball in the Atlantic Division, but the Nets are coming off consecutive wins over Oklahoma City and Cleveland. Joe Johnson's game-winning jumper to knock off the Thunder last week helped Brooklyn cash outright as 12-point road underdogs, but the Nets have been limited to 95 points or less in six of the last seven games. The Nets have struggled off a home victory this season, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in this situation, coming off Saturday's triumph over Cleveland.

Last season, these teams split four meetings, as both clubs won once at home and once on the opposition's court. Three of the four wins came by double-digits, including both victories by the Hawks, while Atlanta is 7-2 the last nine meetings in the series.

Magic at Clippers

Orlando: 10-23 SU, 15-18 ATS
Los Angeles: 23-13 SU, 21-15 ATS

Orlando begins a five-game Western Conference road swing that starts at Staples Center against the Clippers. Los Angeles will be without All-Star point guard Chris Paul, who suffered a shoulder injury in Friday's win at Dallas and is out for at least three weeks. Now, the Clippers try to get on track after getting pummeled at San Antonio on Saturday, 116-92, as Los Angeles trailed by 35 points at the half.

The Magic has won just three of 15 road contests this season, while dropping six of their past eight overall. Orlando is riding a three-game skid after falling at home to Miami on Saturday, 110-94 as 10-point underdogs, the third loss to the Heat this season. Jacque Vaughn's club is winless in four road games against Western Conference foes this season, but has covered as a double-digit 'dog at Oklahoma City, Houston, and Minnesota.

The last time these teams hooked up in Orlando back in November, the Magic stunned the Clippers, 98-90 to cash outright as 6 ½-point underdogs. Los Angeles overcame a 15-point halftime deficit to take a two-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, but Orlando outscored L.A. 26-16 in the final quarter for the victory. The Magic has won four straight visits to Staples Center, including a 104-101 upset last January as 12½-point underdogs.