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**TheGame** · 05-27-2016, 07:16 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 5/27

NBA betting history says the Raptors will rebound from big loss
By JASON LOGAN

Cheer up Toronto Raptors bettors.

Yes, Wednesday’s 116-78 blowout loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals stung (Cleveland covered the 11-point spread by 27 points) but there are brighter skies ahead – at least so says NBA Playoffs betting history.

Going back to the 1990-91 NBA season, playoff teams coming off a loss of 30 or more points are a profitable 36-20 ATS (26-30 SU) in their following postseason game, covering the spread 64 percent of the time. And looking closer at teams fresh from an ass-waxing of 38 points-plus (like Toronto is in Game 6), those clubs have rebounded with a 9-3 ATS mark (5-7 SU), a 75 percent winner at the window.

The Raptors are 6-point underdogs at home to LeBron James and the Cavaliers Friday. Toronto was trucked in Games 1 and 2 of the series in Cleveland, but returned serve with two wins as a home pup in Games 3 and 4. The Dinos are 5-5 ATS at the Air Canda Centre this postseason.

Home cooking has helped teams bounce back from a bad loss during that 25-year span. Since the 1991 NBA Playoffs, home teams reeling from a 30-plus point loss the game before are 17-7 ATS (14-10 SU), which is a 71 percent payday.

Those teams off a crushing loss have scored an average of 96.33 points for while allowing an average of 98.03 points against, versus an average spread of +6.67. Home sides in this situation have a positive points for/against count of 100.04-97.16 with an average pointspread of +5.4.

This trend is, however, reserved to the playoffs. Looking into that same situation during the regular season returns a record of 301-600 ATS (342-559 SU), with teams off a 30-plus beatdown covering just 33 percent of the time in the following game. Basic logic tells us that playoff clubs are much more talented than team losing big in the regular season, with an ability to shake off those one-sided defeats and return to form.

This postseason trend has also paid well for Under bettors. Playoff teams coming off a loss of 30 or more points have gone 23-33 Over/Under in the following contest, staying below the total at a 59 percent clip.

**TheGame** · 05-27-2016, 07:16 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 5/27

Eastern Confernce betting preview and odds: Cavaliers at Raptors

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+6, 196)

Cavaliers lead series 3-2

The Cleveland Cavaliers have hung three fierce beatings on Toronto but the outcomes have been different when the Eastern Conference finals have been staged in Canada. The Raptors will attempt to force a Game 7 when they host Cleveland on Friday, while the Cavaliers will be looking to clinch their second consecutive trip to the NBA Finals.

Cleveland took a 3-2 series lead with a 116-78 dismantling of the Raptors on Wednesday and its three wins are by an average of 29.3 points. "You can see that we've won three at home and they've won two," Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving said at the postgame press conference. "Game 6 will definitely be a great atmosphere that I'm looking forward to, and my teammates are as well." The Raptors gained momentum with their wins in Game 3 and 4 but the good vibes evaporated quickly in the Game 5 effort that was described as "embarrassing" by coach Dwane Casey. "Our backs are against the wall, but we're a resilient group," Toronto small forward DeMarre Carroll told reporters. "We've been in this same situation the last two series, so we know what we need to do. There's no more talking, no more motivational speeches. You just show up."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: With their season on the line, the Raptors open as 6-point home dogs against the Cavaliers and the line has yet to move off that number. The total has been bet down one point since opening, going from 197 to 196.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (68-27 SU, 45-47-3 ATS, 47-48 O/U): Power forward Kevin Love rediscovered his shooting stroke and scored 25 points on 8-of-10 shooting in Game 5 after averaging 6.5 points on 5-of-23 shooting over the previous two games. "Just Kevin Love being Kevin Love, he's been playing this way throughout the whole postseason," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue said at a press conference. "He had two bad games, two bad shooting games, and we made a big deal of it. But Kevin is one of the top 10 players in this league. Nothing that he does amazes me." Small forward LeBron James and point guard Kyrie Irving each scored 23 points on a night in which the Cavaliers shot a blistering 57.1 percent from the field.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (66-35 SU, 52-49 ATS, 49-51-1 O/U): The backcourt of shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (14 points) and point guard Kyle Lowry (13) combined for just 27 points in Game 5 after putting up 67 in the previous game. Lowry's play has been superb at home (27.5 average, 8-of-15 from 3-point range) and atrocious on the road (10.3 average, 2-of-19 on 3s). "I have to play more aggressive from the jump, and I've done it two games at home and not enough on the road," Lowry said at a postgame press conference. "I don't know what it is because I always feel like I can get mine on the road and I know my teammates are going to need me on the road."

TRENDS:

* Home team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last five games playing on one days rest.
* Over is 4-1 in Raptors last five home games versus a team with a winning road record.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of bettors are giving the early edge to the favored Cavaliers to end the series. Bettors also like the Over in Game 6.

**TheGame** · 05-27-2016, 07:16 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 5/27

Game 6 - Cavaliers at Raptors
By Kevin Rogers

The home team has won each of the first five games of the Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and Toronto. The Cavaliers look to break that trend with a victory on Friday night in Game 6 at the Air Canada Center where they have lost twice already in this series. However, Toronto is seeking to reach a decisive seventh game for the third consecutive round in the playoffs after suffering a humiliating loss in Game 5.

Cleveland dominated Toronto at Quicken Loans Arena for the third time in this series as the Cavaliers jumped out to an 18-point lead after the first quarter and never looked back. The Cavs crushed the Raptors, 116-78 to easily cash as 11-point favorites, while grabbing a 31-point halftime advantage, the largest ever in conference finals history. Kevin Love bounced back from a subpar effort in Game 4 in which he sat out the fourth quarter as he poured in a game-high 25 points in Game 5. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving each scored 23 points, as the Cavaliers shot a scorching 57% from the floor.

It was a game to forget for the Raptors, who came off a pair of impressive home underdog victories in Games 3 and 4 to even the series. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were the only two Toronto players to register double-figures in Game 5, combining for 27 points on 7-of-20 shooting from the floor. The Raptors shot 39% from the floor, while misfiring on 14-of-17 three-point attempts and missing 14 free throws. The only positive to come out of the Game 5 disaster was the return of center Jonas Valenciunas, who came off the bench following an eight-game absence to score nine points on 4-of-4 shooting from the field.

The Cavaliers have yet to win north of the border this season, losing in all four tries, including twice in the regular season. In all four defeats, Cleveland has scored less than 100 points, although in two of the losses finished with 99 points. In the 105-99 setback in Game 4, the Cavaliers attempted 41 shots from three-point range (making 13), while going to the line only nine times. Lowry and DeRozan carried the Raptors in Game 4, combining for 67 points, as Lowry knocked down four treys in each of the two home victories.

Cleveland owns a perfect 5-0 record the last two postseasons when trying to close out a series, but Tyronn Lue’s club failed to cover in series-clinching victories over Detroit and Atlanta in the first two rounds. The Cavs won those two games by a combined three points, but have closed out four of their last five playoff series with road victories since 2015. Toronto has won in both of its tries in elimination games in this postseason, although each time came with both squads trying not to get knocked out in seventh game wins over Indiana and Miami.

It’s hard to ignore Toronto’s perfect 7-0 record at home in the playoffs coming off a loss, while Dwane Casey’s squad has covered four straight games at the Air Canada Center. Since allowing 100 points in the playoff opener to Indiana, the Raptors have yielded less than 100 points in regulation in nine straight home contests, resulting in a 5-4 mark to the 'over.’

NBA expert Chris David weighs the options on betting these squads, “You can handicap Game 6 a couple different ways and you could be very hesitant to do so. Based on the eyeball test from Game 5, you’re leaning to the Cavaliers on Friday but will they lay an egg like they did in Game 3 at Toronto? Or will Cleveland finally show up for a full 48 minutes at the Air Canada Centre and advance to the finals? The answers to those questions are arguable and that’s where you could be decisive.”

David believes that the Raptors are the look as long as you stick to the numbers, “If you’re handicapping the game on angles and trends, then you’re all-in on Toronto. The home team has won and covered the first five games in this series and the Raptors play much better in Canada. They’ve gone 8-2 in the playoffs at home in the playoff losses came by 10 and six points, compared to dropping six of their seven road playoff games by double digits. Cleveland has gone 4-2 on the road in the playoffs but it’s just 2-4 versus the number in those games and only two wins came by double digits.”

When the Raptors lose, they get blown out. So is it worth taking the points on Friday? “Since the point-spread hasn’t mattered in any of Toronto’s games as an underdog in the playoffs, I wouldn’t recommend taking the points. Instead, I would grab the 15/1 odds on the adjusted series price and hope they force a Game 7 on Sunday. If that happens, you can buy back Cleveland in the decisive matchup or let it ride and hedge out with possible Live Betting or halftime wagers. Either way, the series price offers more value to me than the money-line in Game 6, which is plus-230 at most betting shops,” David says.

This postseason has seen its share of blowouts, as clubs coming off a loss of 20 points or more own a 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS record. However, home underdog have gone 3-2 SU/ATS, including Oklahoma City’s Game 3 victory over Golden State in the Western Conference Finals in this situation. Last postseason, road teams leading a series 3-2 posted a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS record in Game 6, while that scenario has come up only once in the 2016 playoffs as the Raptors lost at Indiana in Game 6 of the first round trying to advance.

David provides his view on the total, which has dropped to 196. “Depending when and where you’ve played totals in this series, your bankroll could have differing results. Per our closing numbers, the ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2-1 in the first five games and the ‘under’ tickets were definitely helped with some poor offensive production in the final quarters.”

“The total for Game 5 opened at 197 and you can certainly make a sound case for either wager. However, the last two postseasons that the Raptors were sent packing, they gave up 125 and 104 points. Toronto’s offense should be better at home but if you believe Cleveland will advance on Friday, then I believe you’ll see some points. My lean is to the Cavs team total over (101 ½) and the high side in the game too.”

The Cavaliers opened as 6 ½-point favorites for Game 6 and that number has held steady. The game tips off at 8:35 PM EST from Toronto and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

**TheGame** · 05-27-2016, 07:16 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 5/27

Preview: Cavaliers (57-25) at Raptors (56-26)

Date: May 27, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

TORONTO (AP) To keep their season alive, the Toronto Raptors are counting on a home-court advantage that saved them before.

LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers moved within one win of their second straight NBA Finals on Wednesday night by routing Toronto 116-78 in Game 5, the fourth lopsided game in a series where both teams have struggled mightily on the road.

Paced by the resurgent Kevin Love with 25 points, and 23 apiece from James and Kyrie Irving, the Cavs built a 43-point lead in the second half and demolished the Raptors. Toronto lost three games in Cleveland's Quicken Loans Arena by a combined 88 points.

Fortunately, the Raptors are back home in front of their own frenzied fans and will host Game 6 on Friday night in Air Canada Centre, where the Cavs are 0-4 this season and lost Games 3 and 4 in this series.

After going 32-9 at home during the regular season, Toronto is 8-2 on its floor in the playoffs, and pulled off a Game 7 wins over Indiana and Miami.

The Raptors need it to be home sweet home one more time.

'We've got to play the same way we played the two home games we've had so far,' Raptors guard Kyle Lowry said Thursday, a day after he was hounded by Cleveland's guards and scored just 13 on 5 of 12 shooting. 'That's all we can do. Can't worry about the road. We might not get a chance to go back on the road if we don't play the right way tomorrow.'

Toronto was overmatched from the opening tap in Game 5, falling behind by 18 after one quarter, 31 at halftime and finishing with 18 turnovers, five by Lowry.

'They're drastically bad when you've got LeBron coming at you,' Lowry said.

In an all-over-the-map postseason, an elimination game against Cleveland is about as drastically bad as things have been for the Raptors, who led 3-2 in each of the first two rounds. Even so, Toronto guard DeMar DeRozan didn't seem too troubled after Thursday's film session.

'I don't know why we get so comfortable once we put ourselves in a tougher situation,' DeRozan said. 'We've been doing it all year and we always bounce back. I think we just thrive off adversity.'

Cleveland's home record was one win better than Toronto's this season, and the Cavs are unbeaten in seven home playoff games since Game 6 of last year's finals. While his team has struggled in Toronto, coach Tyronn Lue doesn't want to have to put that streak on the line.

'We want to come in with the approach that this is our Game 7,' Lue said. 'We've worked hard all season to get to this point, and we want to treat this next game as our Game 7.'

After Wednesday's big win, Irving said the hostile atmosphere the Cavs encountered in Toronto made them 'probably my first legitimate two road games that I've experienced in my playoff career.'

'Our communication, everything had to be a lot sharper,' Irving said of battling the noise in the North. 'We took a lot that we had to learn from that game, including myself. Going into Game 6, I feel a little bit more prepared than I was going into Game 3 and 4 of knowing what to expect, what it's going to be like.'

If there was any good news for the Raptors in Game 5, it was the return of center Jonas Valanciunas, out since May 7 with a sprained right ankle. Casey said Valanciunas, who scored nine points in 18 minutes Wednesday, could provide offensive versatility in Game 6.

'Getting the ball in the post will be a calming effect for us,' Casey said. 'He's got to be able to make it out of the double team, as the guards do. We looked at that today. He can quarterback out of the low post as well as score out of the low post, and it gives us a third option.'

Can home court advantage and a healthy Valanciunas prolong the deepest playoff run in Raptors history and help Toronto reach a third Game 7?

Casey hasn't given up hope.

'We've been here before,' he said. 'We're here at home. We've played well here at home. We are playing against one of the best teams in the NBA right now. Our guys take solace from being at home, understanding we've been here before and we can bounce back from it. I have faith we will bounce back.'

**TheGame** · 05-27-2016, 07:17 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 5/27

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors May 27, 8:30 EST

Cleveland off the most lopsided playoff win in franchise history thumping Raptors 116-78 easily covering the -11 point spot try to close out Toronto with a victory Friday in Game 6 at Air Canada Centre. Simply too much talent disparity, Cavaliers move on. Sportsbooks have the Cavaliers -6.0 points road favorites. Might be a touch generous.

The Raptors an entirely different team playing in front of the home audience should give Cleveland a run for the money. Raptors are a profitable 7-1 ATS as underdogs in front of the hometown crowd. Additionally, Home Dogs in the 4.5 to 6.0 points range are 5-2 ATS this postseason, 3-1 ATS off a loss the previous effort. Finally, Cavaliers have had a horrible time north of the border this season going 0-4 straight-up and against the betting line.

**TheGame** · 05-27-2016, 07:17 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 5/27

NBA

Toronto-Cleveland (C 3-2)
Home team has dominated series, winning all five games by 21.8 point average; over is 6-4-1 in last 11 series games, with home team 8-0 in last eight. Cavaliers lost last four games in Canada (0-4 vs spread). Cavs are 4-2 on road in playoffs. Lowry/DeRozan went a combined 28-43 in Game 4, scoring 67 points; but went 7-20 in Game 5. Raptors are 8-2 at home in playoffs. Home sides are 9-1 vs spread in conference finals.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 5-5, over: 4-5-1

**Satch** · 05-27-2016, 10:41 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 5/27

Preview: Cleveland At Toronto

When: 8:30 PM ET, Friday, May 27, 2016
Where: Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario

Matchup Edge

CLE	Edge in:	TOR
	Points Per Game
	Field Goal %
	Free Throw %
	Defense
	Rebounding
	Turn Overs
	Bench

The Cleveland Cavaliers have hung three fierce beatings on Toronto but the outcomes have been different when the Eastern Conference finals have been staged in Canada. The Raptors will attempt to force a Game 7 when they host Cleveland on Friday, while the Cavaliers will be looking to clinch their second consecutive trip to the NBA Finals.

Cleveland took a 3-2 series lead with a 116-78 dismantling of the Raptors on Wednesday and its three wins are by an average of 29.3 points. "You can see that we've won three at home and they've won two," Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving said at the postgame press conference. "Game 6 will definitely be a great atmosphere that I'm looking forward to, and my teammates are as well." The Raptors gained momentum with their wins in Game 3 and 4 but the good vibes evaporated quickly in the Game 5 effort that was described as "embarrassing" by coach Dwane Casey. "Our backs are against the wall, but we're a resilient group," Toronto small forward DeMarre Carroll told reporters. "We've been in this same situation the last two series, so we know what we need to do. There's no more talking, no more motivational speeches. You just show up."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Power forward Kevin Love rediscovered his shooting stroke and scored 25 points on 8-of-10 shooting in Game 5 after averaging 6.5 points on 5-of-23 shooting over the previous two games. "Just Kevin Love being Kevin Love, he's been playing this way throughout the whole postseason," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue said at a press conference. "He had two bad games, two bad shooting games, and we made a big deal of it. But Kevin is one of the top 10 players in this league. Nothing that he does amazes me." Small forward LeBron James and point guard Kyrie Irving each scored 23 points on a night in which the Cavaliers shot a blistering 57.1 percent from the field.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS: The backcourt of shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (14 points) and point guard Kyle Lowry (13) combined for just 27 points in Game 5 after putting up 67 in the previous game. Lowry's play has been superb at home (27.5 average, 8-of-15 from 3-point range) and atrocious on the road (10.3 average, 2-of-19 on 3s). "I have to play more aggressive from the jump, and I've done it two games at home and not enough on the road," Lowry said at a postgame press conference. "I don't know what it is because I always feel like I can get mine on the road and I know my teammates are going to need me on the road."

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The home team has won all eight matchups this season, including three regular-season meetings.

2. Cleveland C Tristan Thompson had 10 rebounds in Game 5 - his second double-digit effort in the series - and is averaging 9.2 in the five games.

3. Carroll has been a major disappointment in the series, averaging seven points and shooting 29.3 percent from the field, including 4-of-24 from 3-point range.

PREDICTION: Raptors 102, Cavaliers 97

**Satch** · 05-27-2016, 10:43 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 5/27

Trends - Cleveland at Toronto
ATS Trends

Cleveland

Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
Cavaliers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Toronto

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Raptors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Raptors are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Raptors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Raptors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Raptors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.
Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Raptors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central.
Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.

OU Trends

Cleveland
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 7-3 in Cavaliers last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under is 50-24 in Cavaliers last 74 vs. NBA Atlantic.

Toronto
Over is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 24-7 in Raptors last 31 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Under is 9-3 in Raptors last 12 vs. NBA Central. Under is 21-10 in Raptors last 31 vs. Eastern Conference.

Head to Head

Home team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Under is 22-6-1 in the last 29 meetings in Toronto.
Underdog is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings.
Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Toronto.

Announcement

NBA Betting Info. 5/27

NBA Betting Info. 5/27

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