NBA Betting Info. 4/24

[TheGame]

StatFox Super Situations


NBA | CLEVELAND at DETROIT
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points poor offensive rebounding team - averaging <=11/game on the season, on Sunday games
416-269 since 1997. ( 60.7% | 120.1 units )
34-13 this year. ( 72.3% | 19.7 units )


NBA | GOLDEN STATE at HOUSTON
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) off a close home win by 3 points or less, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
84-63 since 1997. ( 57.1% | 41.5 units )
5-4 this year. ( 55.6% | 1.3 units )


NBA | ATLANTA at BOSTON
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (76-79%)
254-156 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.0% | 82.4 units )
84-64 this year. ( 56.8% | 13.6 units )

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Preview: Spurs (67-15) at Grizzlies (42-40)


Date: April 24, 2016 1:00 PM EDT


The San Antonio Spurs entered this first-round matchup with a five-game winning streak over the Memphis Grizzlies, and many assumed it would rather easily grow to nine with a nice little break heading into the Western Conference semifinals.


That should come true Sunday in Memphis as the Spurs try for a third sweep in the teams' fourth all-time playoff series after getting through an uninspiring Game 3 performance with a victory.


After two blowouts in San Antonio, the series shifted to Memphis on Friday and things got closer with the Spurs winning 96-87. The Grizzlies led by a point heading into the fourth quarter, but Kawhi Leonard scored 13 of his series-high 32 points in the final 12 minutes.


"I thought we were a little disjointed at times, mostly because of their pressure and physical toughness," coach Gregg Popovich said. "But we fought through it."


On the eight-game overall skid against San Antonio, Memphis has scored at least 90 points once, and the offensive shortcomings have been even more exposed in the playoffs. The Spurs swept the Grizzlies in 2004 and '13 - Memphis did win a six-game series in '11 - and the seven straight playoff wins have come by a 98.7-82.9 margin with Memphis shooting 37.9 percent.


For this series, the Grizzlies are averaging 76.3 points and shooting 37.7 percent. San Antonio is 10 percent better than that from 3-point range after hitting just 23.5 in its last four regular-season contests.


Leonard has been a big part of all of those numbers and matched a career postseason scoring high in Game 3, hitting 6 of 9 from beyond the arc to single-handedly better Memphis (4 of 18) in half the attempts.


"He just keeps getting better and better," Memphis coach Dave Joerger said of the repeat Defensive Player of the Year. "He's been terrific all series, and he's also a bailout player for them ... They can run all their stuff, and it's hard to defend, and he can go get a shot when the shot clock is going down."


Tim Duncan played only 13:32 after averaging just over 24 minutes in the first two games. He's tied with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for third in career playoff victories with 154 and can match former teammate Robert Horry with another. Derek Fisher's league-record 161 would be in reach if the Spurs make the conference finals.


Memphis, which is 1-13 since March 21, is playing the series without two of its top three scorers in Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in a season defined by makeshift starting fives. What's left of the trio - Zach Randolph - had 20 points and 11 rebounds in Game 3 after being limited to 8.5 points on 26.7 percent shooting in the first two games.


Rookie forward Jarell Martin is the latest to succumb to injury after missing Game 3 with a left foot ailment and isn't expected to return anytime soon.


The Grizzlies elected to go with a smaller lineup in Game 3, moving Tony Allen into the starting five while Chris Andersen came off the bench. The results were an improvement - just not enough to add any intrigue to the series.


Joerger summarized his team's part with a true statement of the overmatched.


"You're going to go down swinging," he said. "You know, Matt (Barnes) sort of summed it up the other night, and that's kind of what we try to do. Guys who have been in the league a long time, all of our guys, are playing with a lot of heart."

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Preview: Warriors (73-9) at Rockets (41-41)


Date: April 24, 2016 3:30 PM EDT


The absence of Stephen Curry has kept the Houston Rockets relevant, but the window might be closing on their significance to this postseason.


With the expected return of the league's scoring leader and reigning MVP, the Golden State Warriors hope to realign their title defense when they go for a split in Houston on Sunday.


The Warriors' chances to sweep this series were lost with a rare defeat in Game 3 without Curry, who left the opener last Saturday with a sprained right ankle.


Curry is officially listed as questionable for Sunday, but Steve Kerr said Saturday that he expects Curry to play. The MVP himself had some thoughts after Friday's practice.


"I think I can play through a little bit of discomfort and whatnot, especially in a playoff situation," Curry said.


"Obviously, if I'm playing I'll be aggressive, I'll do exactly what I usually do when I'm out there on the floor, whether I make or miss shots. And I think we'll live with that, as long as I'm on the court."


That last part is important. The only thing keeping Houston in this series has been Curry's absence. He scored 24 points in an easy 104-78 win in the opener, but the Rockets drew closer with Monday's 115-106 loss before breaking through with Thursday's 97-96 win - just their second in 16 games against the Warriors.


The Rockets' victory was sealed on James Harden's stepback jumper with 2.7 seconds left - aided by a Michael Jordan-esque push-off the NBA later said should have been an offensive foul, one of four admitted missed calls in the final two minutes.


Harden has made only 39.1 percent of his shots in this series, including 29.6 from 3-point range. However, he has posted 63 points and 20 assists the last two games.


'The last shot was typical of what James does,' coach J.B. Bickerstaff said. 'The move, we've seen before. The finish, we've seen before. You do get spoiled by it at times, but in these biggest of moments, you can't help but appreciate it.'


Golden State shot just 43 percent in Game 3, well below its league-best 48.7 during the regular season. Granted, it was still better than the 42.9 posted in the opener with Curry.


But things just didn't click for the Warriors the way they did all season long with the ball in their star's hands. The final chance to win on Thursday went to Draymond Green, and he dribbled the ball off his foot and out of bounds.


Green finished with nine points, seven rebounds, seven assists and seven turnovers.


'I cost us the game,' he said. 'The world will think I'm talking about that last turnover but I'm not. That happens. I was awful the whole game. I care about that turnover, but I cost us the game way before then.'


Marreese Speights was the only Warrior to eclipse 20 points with 22, far more than the 7.1 he averaged in the regular season. Klay Thompson poured in 34 in Game 2 but finished with half that on Thursday on 7-of-20 shooting, missing all seven of his 3s. Shaun Livingston, starting in place of Curry, added 16 points.


Speights didn't attempt a 3-pointer in his first 29 playoff games but is 4 of 9 in this series and knocked down 3 of 6 on Thursday. Surprisingly, he was the only Warrior to make more than one as they finished at 24 percent, their worst showing from deep in 24 games.


Curry should improve those numbers. He broke - shattered, really - his own record with 402 made 3s this season while shooting 45.4 percent from deep.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Preview: Hawks (48-34) at Celtics (48-34)


Date: April 24, 2016 6:00 PM EDT


The Atlanta Hawks left TD Garden on Friday night knowing they have a series on their hands, and they'll likely be spending the hours leading up to Game 4 devising a way to slow down Isaiah Thomas.


That actually might be easier than figuring out how to limit the impact of Jonas Jerebko.


Brad Stevens' move to a smaller lineup opened up the floor and allowed the Celtics to get back into this series, and the onus now falls on Mike Budenholzer to counter Sunday night as Boston tries to even things at two games apiece.


The 5-foot-9 Thomas had a career-high 42 points in Game 3, carrying the Celtics to a 111-103 win after they'd blown a 20-point lead. But on a night when the smallest player on the floor became Boston's ninth to hit 40 in a playoff game, it was two adjustments from Stevens that may provide his team some sustained hope in its attempt to rally from an 0-2 deficit for the second time in franchise history - and first since the 1969 NBA Finals.


Out went Marcus Smart and Jared Sullinger from the starting lineup and in came Evan Turner and Jerebko, both of whom made a difference in a chippy game that featured three flagrant fouls and two technicals. Turner had 17 points, seven assists and five steals, while Jerebko chipped in 11 points and 12 rebounds.


His impact went beyond those numbers, though. Jerebko spread the floor and opened up lanes for Thomas, who drove to the basket 22 times - just eight fewer than he did in Games 1 and 2 - and wound up shooting 15 of the Celtics' 33 free throws.


Boston got to the line just 31 times in the first two games.


"He just gives me space to work and I'm glad he got his opportunity tonight and he was the difference maker," Thomas said. "I mean, he spaced the floor for everybody, he is always in the right spots and it makes it tough to guard when you got a shooter like that to stretch the floor and knock down shots and also attack the paint, and he did a hell of a job tonight."


Jerebko only went 1 of 4 from beyond the arc but Boston was 11 for 32 after going 16 for 63 (25.4 percent) in Atlanta. The Celtics were a plus-14 when he was on the floor Friday, and for the series they have a 14.6 net rating in the 74 minutes he's been on the court.


In the 70 he's been on the bench? Try minus-25.1, with Boston producing just 77.5 points per 100 possessions.


"He plays really, really, hard," Stevens said. "He's got versatility with regard to defensively. It's really hard to switch onto (Jeff) Teague and (Dennis) Schroder, but all of our bigs have to do that some as they get going downhill on you. And then his scoring is just a plus. You know, if he scores, he scores; if not, he's still spacing for us."


Budenholzer played center Mike Muscala for just three minutes and even spent six with Teague and Schroder together, a point guard pairing that was ineffective when he occasionally used it in the regular season.


If there's a greater change to be made Sunday, Budenholzer didn't sound too intent on sharing it after Game 3.


"I don't think we defended them well enough," he said. "It seemed like there were a few plays where we could finish better in the paint, take care of the ball better, make better decisions. ... Who was out there, who wasn't I don't think it's quite as impactful as us needing to be better and Isaiah Thomas having a big night."


Teague and Schroder provided 43 points and Kyle Korver hit five 3s and totaled 17 points for the second straight game, but the Hawks are still waiting for Paul Millsap to step up offensively.


Millsap carved up the Celtics with 22.5 points per game during the regular season but has totaled 26 in this series, shooting 4 for 21 in the last two games.


His defensive impact remains. Boston is shooting 34.3 percent with Millsap on the floor and 48.5 percent when he's sitting.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Preview: Cavaliers (57-25) at Pistons (44-38)


Date: April 24, 2016 8:30 PM EDT


The outside voices will likely focus less on the off-court relationships of the Cleveland Cavaliers' Big Three and more on their on-court chemistry if they continue the roll they're on.


Kyrie Irving says they don't care either way.


With their stars hitting their stride, the Cavaliers can sweep their first-round series and match the longest postseason winning streak over an opponent in league history with Sunday night's contest at the Detroit Pistons.


The Cavaliers seemed exhausted at times during a regular season filled with critiques of LeBron James' every move, mainly on social media. Though pushed by the pesky Pistons, Cleveland's big names have looked re-energized while building a 3-0 lead that no NBA team has ever overcome in a seven-game series.


Two of the Cavs' Big Three missed time during last season's playoffs, but the early returns from Irving and Kevin Love suggest James may not have to do it all by himself again.


While Love has three double-doubles, averaging 21.3 points and 11.7 rebounds, Irving's scoring average is at 26.3 - well above his season average of 19.6.


James struggled from the floor during Friday's 101-91 win, making only 8 of 24 shots for 20 points, though he led the Cavs with 13 rebounds and seven assists. Irving and Love combined for 46 points on 18-of-30 shooting, including two key 3s late from Irving.


"We're not necessarily concerned with the B.S. that's going on outside of the locker room," Irving told the team's official website. "We know what to expect, we execute the game plan, and we're executing at a really high level on both ends of the floor. We may have some mishaps, but we come in, we look each other in the eye, and we communicate the next play and that's just what it's about."


The Pistons are in danger of dropping their 12th straight postseason game to Cleveland and 10th in a row overall.


The Cavaliers' playoff winning streak over Detroit is tied for the second longest in league history. The Los Angeles Lakers beat Denver 11 straight times from 1985-2009 and Seattle a dozen from 1980-89.


"We're coming out and we're down 0-3, but somebody has to be the team to come back from it," Reggie Jackson said.


Detroit is closer than it looks to snapping its playoff woes. After beating the Cavs in three of four regular-season meetings, the Pistons tested them in Games 1 and 3.


They trailed just 54-53 at halftime on Friday, though Cleveland played air-tight defensively from there. The first and second halves have been far different this series, the Pistons holding a two-point edge in the opening 24 minutes and the Cavs blowing things opening with a 152-118 second-half disparity.


The difference Friday seemed to come from what's generally been an advantage for Detroit. The Cavaliers held a 46-32 rebounding edge on a team that was second in the league with a plus-3.8 difference during the season.


The Pistons have averaged 36.3 rebounds to Cleveland's 41 this series.


'Rebounding's been one of our strengths all year. It's been terrible in this series,' coach Stan Van Gundy said.


Shooting from 3-point range might be a bigger issue. While Cleveland has made 32 of 67 attempts the last two games, Detroit is just 10 for 40.

[Satch]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

“NBA Playoffs betting preview and odds”
The San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers have a chance to be the first teams to advance to the second round of the NBA Playoffs Sunday. We break down all the action in our betting preview.
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies (+12.5, 183)
Spurs lead series 3-0
The second-seeded San Antonio Spurs look to complete a four-game sweep of Memphis when they visit the Grizzlies on Sunday. San Antonio rolled to easy victories in the first two games and swatted aside Memphis’ determined effort in Game 3 while posting a 96-87 victory.
Spurs All-Star small forward Kawhi Leonard had a monster outing in Game 3 as he made six 3-pointers and had 32 points, seven rebounds, five blocked shots and four steals. “Kawhi Leonard’s got to be one of the top two, top three, players in the league at both ends,” Memphis forward Zach Randolph told reporters. “That kid is the silent assassin.” Randolph was quieted by the San Antonio defense in the first two games but delivered a better effort in Game 3 with 20 points and 11 rebounds and the Grizzlies don’t figure to lay down as they aim to avoid the sweep. “They’re going to fight until the end, so we’ve got to come out Sunday even more physical and more intense and match their energy,” said Spurs small forward Danny Green, “because we know they’ll come out with more than they did (Friday).”
TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC
LINE HISTORY:
Its not looking good for the Grizzlies, who on the brink on elimination, opened as 13-point home pups. They have since been bet down to +12.5. The total opened at 183 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE SPURS (70-15, 46-39 ATS, 35-48-2 O/U):
Leonard is averaging 21.7 points in the series but is making an even bigger impact on the defensive end with averages of 3.3 steals and three blocked shots. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has altered numerous other Memphis shots and has repeatedly jammed up passing lanes to highlight San Antonio’s defensive prowess. All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge has scored in double digits in all three games but hasn’t had a big outing while averaging 14.3 points.
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (42-43, 43-41-1 ATS, 45-38-2 O/U):
Memphis is averaging just 76.3 points and shooting 37.7 percent from the field in the series and only Randolph (12.3) and veteran swingman Vince Carter (10.3) are averaging in double digits. The Grizzlies went to a smaller lineup for most of Game 3 and that alignment included Randolph at center and Matt Barnes playing power forward in an attempt to improve the offensive efficiency. Randolph is shooting just 33.3 percent in the series and Barnes’ accuracy has been even worse – 30.3 while averaging 9.3 points.
TRENDS:
* Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Spurs last six versus Southwest Division opponents.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings overall.

[Satch]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (+8.5, 217.5)
Warriors lead series 2-1
The first-round series between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors is starting to get testy and controversial. The Rockets will try to build on their contested victory in Game 3 and even the series at two wins apiece when they host the Warriors in Game 4 on Sunday.
Houston pulled out a 97-96 victory on James Harden’s basket with 2.7 seconds remaining in Game 3 on Thursday, only to have the NBA come out on Friday and say the shot shouldn’t have counted because Harden initiated contact with Golden State forward Andre Iguodala before releasing the ball. Rockets general manager Daryl Morey fired off a pair of tweets during and after the game questioning the officiating and Warriors forward Draymond Green was given a retroactive flagrant foul 1 on Friday for his conduct in the final second of Game 3. Houston pulled out the one-point win after seldom-used Golden State guard Ian Clark had given his team the lead with 10 seconds remaining while absorbing the crunch-time minutes that usually go to superstar Stephen Curry, who missed his second straight game with a sprained ankle. Curry dressed for Game 3 but was ruled out by the coaching staff and coach Steve Kerr said Saturday that Curry will play in Game 4.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
LINE HISTORY:
The Rockets opened as 6.5-point home dogs, but with Curry’s expected retuen to the lineup in Game 4, the line has moved to Rockets +8.5. The total has also seen some predictable movement, going from 216 to 217.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (75-10, 47-36-2 ATS, 46-38-1 O/U):
Curry tried to talk his way into the lineup in Game 3 before being overruled by the staff but went through practice on Friday and Saturday and declared himself ready to go. “It’s not pain. It’s like soreness that comes along with all that my ankle’s been through,” Curry told reporters. “It’s kind of to be expected and I see it as, this is kind of my playoff thing. Everybody has something they’re dealing with in some way shape or form. It’s stable … no swelling or anything, so I can do everything I need to do.” Green struggled to nine points, seven rebounds, seven assists and seven turnovers in Game 3 while fellow All-Star Klay Thompson went 0-of-7 from 3-point range.
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (42-43, 38-47 ATS, 48-37 O/U):
Houston had no issues with Harden’s game-winner immediately following the win and suggested it was par for the course for the superstar. “The last shot was typical of what James does,” interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff told reporters in the post-game press conference. “The move we’ve seen before, the finish we’ve seen before, the hold of the ball we’ve seen before. You do get spoiled by it. At times, in these moments, the biggest of moments, you can’t but help but appreciate it.” Harden, who drew some criticism for not being aggressive enough after failing to go to the free-throw line in Game 1 and making only one trip to the line in the second half of Game 2, finished with 35 points, nine assists and eight rebounds in Game 3 while going 9-of-11 from the line.
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 6-0 in Warriors last six road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games following a straight up win.

[Satch]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics (-2, 203.5)
Hawks lead series 2-1
The Boston Celtics made their way back into the series behind 42 points and some controversy from All-Star Isaiah Thomas. The point guard managed to escape without a suspension after appearing to hit Atlanta point guard Dennis Schroder in the face, and the Celtics will try to even the series at two wins apiece when they host the Hawks on Sunday.
Schroder and Thomas battled back and forth in Game 3 and Thomas sent a hand toward Schroder’s face in the first quarter after the two were assessed technical fouls for jawing at each other. The refs missed the hit to the face but did catch Schroder knocking Thomas down seconds later. “I still feel disrespected (about) what he did,” Schroder told reporters after the decision to hand Thomas a flagrant 1 foul on Saturday. “I (had) just scored a basket and tried to go back on defense and he smacked me. It had nothing to do with basketball.” Thomas’ career-high 42 points were the key to Boston’s 111-103 victory which got the team back into the series after a pair of terrible offensive performances in the first two games.
TV: 6 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Southeast (Atlanta), CSN New England (Boston)
LINE HISTORY:
The Celtics opened as 2-point home favorites for Game 4 and the line hasn’t yet to move off that number. The total opened st 204.5 and has been bet down one point to 203.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE HAWKS (50-35, 43-41-1 ATS, 39-46 O/U):
Atlanta was down 17 at the end of the first quarter on Friday and trailed by as much as 19 early in the third before battling back and taking the game down to the wire. “It was going to be tough to sweep this team anyway,” Hawks forward Kent Bazemore told reporters. “Being down 2-0 and them having a home game, we knew they were going to put up a fight. We know that we’ve got to do a lot better. Our defense wasn’t where it should have been for a chunk of a game.” Bazemore has sandwiched a pair of 20-point outings around a 2-of-14 effort in Game 2.
ABOUT THE CELTICS (49-36, 44-40-1 ATS, 40-45 O/U):
Boston is still without starting shooting guard Avery Bradley (hamstring) and switched up the lineup in Game 3 in an effort to coax some more offense out of the team, inserting Jonas Jerebko and Evan Turner. Those two combined for 28 points and spaced the floor for Thomas, who attacked the basket and joined Hall of Famers like Larry Bird and John Havlicek as Celtics who have gone for 40 or more points in the playoffs. “I’m just glad we got the win, first and foremost,” Thomas told reporters. “But, I mean, that makes me feel happy, just to be in same category of those great players and I just want to follow in the footsteps of all the Celtics greats.”
TRENDS:
* Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1 in Hawks last five games overall.
* Under is 12-3 in Celtics last 15 games following a straight up win.

[Satch]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons (+6.5, 198.5)
Cavaliers lead series 3-0
The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to dominate Detroit in the postseason and look to finish off a four-game sweep of the host Pistons in Sunday’s first-round contest. Cleveland has won 11 consecutive playoff games against Detroit, one off the postseason record held by the Los Angeles Lakers, who defeated the Seattle SuperSonics in 12 straight playoff games from 1980-89.
The Cavaliers took the commanding 3-0 lead with a 101-91 victory on Friday when point guard Kyrie Irving scored 26 points and forwards LeBron James and Kevin Love each scored 20. “I think right now we’re in a great flow as far as us three,” James told reporters. “When we’re on the floor we understand what we want individually and as a team. Guys are picking their spots.” Being swept would leave Detroit with 10 consecutive playoff losses since a victory against the Boston Celtics in Game 4 of the 2008 Eastern Conference finals. Pistons point guard Reggie Jackson is averaging just 14.7 points in the series – more than four below his regular-season average – and was just 1-of-8 from 3-point range in the Game 3 loss.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Ohio (Cleveland), FSN Detroit
LINE HISTORY:
The Pistons opened as 6.5-point home favorites and have yet to move off that number. The total has also not moved off its opening number of 198.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (60-25, 39-43-3 ATS, 42-43 O/U):
The trio of James, Irving and Love are meshing and Detroit hasn’t figured out how to slow any of the three. Love has also been a force on the boards with three consecutive double-doubles while averaging 21.3 points and 11.7 rebounds, and Irving is averaging a team-best 26.3 points. James is averaging 22.3 points and had 13 rebounds and seven assists in Game 3 despite being just 8-of-24 shooting after making 21-of-35 over the first two games.
ABOUT THE PISTONS (44-41, 43-40-2 ATS, 43-42 O/U):
All-Star center Andre Drummond spent most of the fourth quarter on the bench in Game 3 as his porous free-throw shooting again was a problem. Drummond was 1-of-6 from the line in Game 3 – he is 6-for-24 in the series – and only played 93 seconds in the final stanza as coach Stan Van Gundy couldn’t afford to give possessions away. “Yeah, because you can’t do anything with him,” Van Gundy told reporters. “He can’t run to set a screen, he can’t do anything. You’ve just got opportunities to foul him. Now would they have [fouled]? I don’t know. But I gave him one possession – we’re behind. We can’t go down and play for zero points.”
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days rest.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Pistons last six home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six Conference Quarterfinals games.

[Satch]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

PLAYOFFS
Detroit-Cleveland (C 3-0)
Pistons lost Game 1 despite shooting 15-29 from arc; they were 10-40 in last two games and lost by 17-10 points. Five of last eight series games went over total- under is 19-7 in playoffs this month. Cavaliers won four of last five visits here, but lost two of last three road games overall; Detroit lost three of its last four home games. Cleveland had only 26 turnovers total in Games 1-3 (+3).
Boston-Atlanta (A 2-1)
Home side won all three series games; Boston shot 46% in Game 3 win, after shooting 36.3%/31.8% in Atlanta. Celtics lost five of last six games with Atlanta, with four of six going over the total- Hawks are 2-3 in last five visits here, and lost their last four road games overall. Six of last nine Atlanta games stayed under the total, as did three of last four Celtic games.
Memphis-San Antonio (SAS 3-0)
Grizzlies lost 12 of last 13 games, losing by 32-26-9 in first three games of series. Memphis lost its last eight games with Spurs (1-7 vs spread), six by 10+ points. Grizzlies lost four of last five series games played here. Seven of last nine series games stayed under total. Spurs are 3-2 in last five road games, with no win by more than nine; they only led by a point at half in Game 3, but made 12-26 on arc and pulled away to win.
Houston-Golden State (GSW 2-1)
Curry’s ankle should be vastly improved now that Warriors lost Game 3- they were only 6-25 on arc in 97-96 loss. Warriors won by 9 without Curry in Game 2, going 27-38 on line. Golden State won 11 of last 13 games (8-5 vs the spread) against Houston, covering three of last five played here. Rockets cut turnovers down to 16 last game, winning despite 39% shooting from floor. After missing two games, how will Golden State’s chemistry be with him back?
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 17-9, Over: 7-19

[Satch]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

StatFox Super Situations


NBA | CLEVELAND at DETROIT
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points poor offensive rebounding team - averaging <=11/game on the season, on Sunday games
416-269 since 1997. ( 60.7% | 120.1 units )
34-13 this year. ( 72.3% | 19.7 units )


NBA | GOLDEN STATE at HOUSTON
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) off a close home win by 3 points or less, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
84-63 since 1997. ( 57.1% | 41.5 units )
5-4 this year. ( 55.6% | 1.3 units )


NBA | ATLANTA at BOSTON
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (76-79%)
254-156 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.0% | 82.4 units )
84-64 this year. ( 56.8% | 13.6 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at DETROIT
Play Under – All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points good team – outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, in April games
358-228 since 1997. ( 61.1% | 107.2 units )
5-9 this year. ( 35.7% | -4.9 units )

[Satch]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Sunday’s Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Western Conference – Game 4 (Warriors lead 2-1)
Golden State (-8 ½, 217 ½) at Houston – 3:35 PM EST – ABC
The Warriors lost only nine games in the regular season, but dropped their first playoff game in Thursday’s 97-96 defeat at Houston. Golden State hasn’t lost consecutive contests this season, while last season’s Most Valuable Player Stephen Curry is expected back in the lineup after missing each of the previous two games with a sprained right ankle.
The Rockets jumped out to a 17-point advantage in Game 3 before the Warriors rallied back to take a one-point lead with 10 seconds remaining. James Harden drilled the go-ahead jumper to give Houston a 97-96 lead, as Golden State’s Draymond Green mishandled the ensuing in-bound pass to clinch a Rockets’ victory and a cover as 3 ½-point underdogs. Harden scored a game-high 35 points, while the front-court duo of Dwight Howard and Donatas Motiejunas combined to pull down 26 rebounds.
The Warriors went from 115 points in Game 2 to just 96 in Game 3, as Steve Kerr’s club shot 49% from the floor in the Game 2 victory. With the series shifting to Houston, the defending champions couldn’t buy a shot from three-point range by hitting 6-of-25 attempts from downtown, including an 0-for-7 effort from Klay Thompson. The usually explosive Warriors’ squad depended on a pair of role players to be key contributors in Game 3 as Marreese Speights put up a team-high 22 points and rookie guard Ian Clark chipped in with 11 points.
Seven times in the regular season the Warriors were held below 100 points, while winning just twice when scoring in double-digits. However, Golden State bounced back by compiling a 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS record following a loss when it was limited to less than 100 points with the two non-covers coming as double-digit favorites.
The Rockets have won eight of their last 12 games at the Toyota Center, while winning and covering in each of their past three opportunities as a home underdog. Since 2013, Houston has taken care of its business as a home ‘dog in the postseason by compiling a 5-1 SU/ATS record, including four consecutive SU/ATS wins since last season’s playoffs.
Eastern Conference – Game 4 (Hawks lead 2-1)
Atlanta at Boston (-2, 203 ½) – 6:05 PM EST – TNT
The home team has won each of the first three games of this series as Boston avoided a 3-0 deficit by holding off Atlanta on Friday, 111-103. Isaiah Thomas scored a career-high 42 points for the Celtics, while the Boston offense rebounded in a big way after being limited to 72 points in a Game 2 loss at Philips Arena. The Celtics put a halt to a six-game playoff losing streak under head coach Brad Stevens, while winning its first postseason contest since 2013 in the opening round against the Knicks.
Thomas avoided a suspension after being assessed a technical foul in Game 3 for his run-in with Atlanta guard Dennis Schroder. The Celtics posted a 37-point first quarter on Friday following a seven-point opening frame in the Game 2 blowout loss. Boston jumped out to a 20-point advantage before Atlanta climbed back to take a brief lead in the fourth quarter. The Hawks were limited to 9-of-36 shooting from three-point range, as guard Kyle Korver was the only Atlanta player to heat up from downtown by hitting 5-of-9 attempts from long range.
Atlanta suffered its fourth consecutive road loss since March 30, while allowing at least 105 points in each of those defeats. The Hawks have put together a 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS record away from Philips Arena in the past nine postseason contests, while hitting the ‘over’ six of nine times during this span.
Since January 13, the Celtics have dominated at home by going 20-3 SU and 16-7 ATS in the last 23 games at TD Garden. Dating back to the start of February, Boston owns a dazzling 9-3 ATS record as a favorite of 5 ½ points or less, while going 2-1 SU/ATS against Atlanta at home this season.
Eastern Conference – Game 4 (Cavaliers lead 3-0)
Cleveland (-6 ½, 198 ½) at Detroit – 8:35 PM EST – TNT
The Cavaliers are one victory away from becoming the first Eastern Conference team to advance to the second round. Cleveland swept Boston in the opening round last season and are looking to duplicate that feat against Detroit at the Palace of Auburn Hills. After allowing 101 points in the series opener, Cleveland’s defense tightened up the last two games by giving up 90 points in Game 2 and 91 points in Game 3.
The Pistons trailed the Cavaliers on Friday night by one point at halftime, but Cleveland pulled away late to grab a 101-91 victory to cover as five-point road favorites. Kyrie Irving drilled a three-pointer as the shot clock expired in the final minute to give Cleveland an eight-point cushion and basically guarantee the Cavaliers a cover. Following a 53-point output in the first half by the Pistons, Cleveland’s defense tightened up and allowed Detroit to score only 38 points in the second half.
Cleveland’s Big Three dominated in Game 3 as Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love combined to score 66 points, while the Cavaliers outrebounded the Pistons, 46-32. All five Detroit starters put up double-figures, but the bench contributed only 14 points, while the team shot 6-of-23 from three-point range, a far cry from Game 1 when the Pistons hit 15 shots from downtown.
The Cavaliers posted a 3-0 SU/ATS record in close-out games in the 2015 playoffs, including road victories at Boston and Chicago. Since 2011, James-led teams have compiled a 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS mark when trying to clinch a series, but two of those losses came with his team (Heat) leading 3-0 on the road in the first round in 2011 and 2012.
The Pistons have rebounded off a home loss since the All-Star break by going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in this situation, including a victory at Cleveland on February 22 as 9 ½-point underdogs. Stan Van Gundy’s team continues to be an ‘under’ squad at home recently by cashing the ‘under’ in five of the last six games at the Palace of Auburn Hills.

[Satch]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Favorites, unders and an ankle injury have hindered the NBA’s opening playoff round
By Joe Fortenbaugh
At the close of Las Vegas business on Friday night, favorites had posted a remarkable against-the-spread record of 15-7 (68.2%) through the first 22 games of the 2016 NBA playoffs, with those victories coming by the shocking average of 20.5 points per game.
Unlike the National Hockey League, the first round of the Association’s postseason has been virtually unwatchable.
Of the eight playoff showdowns currently in action, only one features a winning ATS record in favor of the underdog (Toronto-Indiana). San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Miami, Los Angeles and Cleveland have been hammering the opposition while even the defending champion Golden State Warriors, minus MVP Steph Curry for the second and third games of the series, are 2-1 both straight-up and ATS with just a one-point loss in Game 3 serving as the team’s only postseason blemish.
So has it become fair to ask whether or not the NBA should consider revising its playoff format?
Consider this idea recently floated by Colin Cowherd on his national FOX Sports radio show: Shorten the first round of the NBA playoffs from a seven-game series to a three-game series, shorten rounds two and three from seven games to a five-game series and leave the NBA Finals as a seven-game series.
Granted, the NBA would never support an idea such as this because fewer games results in fewer advertising dollars, and sports bettors would also be opposed because this radical shift in postseason competition would lead to far fewer betting opportunities. But maybe, just maybe such a change could lead to more compelling viewing. Think about it like this: The NBA is the only major American sport that loses in the ratings to its college counterpart. March Madness is exceptional television because of the high stakes drama that results from its win-or-go-home format. Would Steph Curry have played in Games 2 or 3 of Golden State’s playoff showdown with Houston if it were only a three-game series? How awesome would it have been to watch Game 3 of the Oklahoma City-Dallas matchup knowing it was winner-take-all? Instead, both of those aforementioned scenarios produced virtually no drama at all because of the fact that Game 3 in a seven-game first-round series carries little significance.
The very notion of lost revenue will no doubt prevent such a change from ever occurring in regards to the NBA’s postseason format, but it would behoove the league to consider any and all possible adjustments for the sole purpose of making its most compelling time of year just that: More compelling.
DID YOU KNOW…
…that NBA unders are 16-6 (72.7%) through the first 22 games of the playoffs? Not only that, but blindly betting the under has resulted in a profit in every single playoff series so far with the exception of Miami-Charlotte (Over is 2-0).
As we’ve mentioned before in this column, sports bettors are doing themselves a disservice if they aren’t actively studying John Hollinger’s “Pace” metric over at ESPN. Pace is defined as the number of possessions a team uses per game. Simply put, the more possessions a team has, the more shots it can attempt. And the more shots a team can attempt, the more points it can score.
San Antonio and Memphis tied for 25th in Pace during the 2015-2016 NBA regular season. So would it surprise you to learn that the under is a perfect 3-0 in the San Antonio-Memphis series?
If you’re studying the Pace metric, it shouldn’t.
THE ANKLE INJURY HEARD ROUND THE WORLD
Residing in the Bay Area and working in sports talk radio, I can personally guarantee you that no topic has been more thoroughly discussed over the past week than the status of Golden State Warriors point guard Steph Curry.
After missing the second and third games of the Houston series due to an ankle/foot injury sustained in Game 1, Curry is currently listed as “questionable” to play in Game 4 Sunday afternoon in Houston where the Warriors are listed as 8-point favorites. The reigning MVP participated in 3-on-3 drills on Friday and is scheduled to go through a full practice on Saturday.
I had no problems whatsoever with Golden State’s cautious approach in regards to Curry for games two and three, as the Rockets are currently the Association’s biggest grease fire, capable of defeating themselves on any given night.
But now that the series has gotten real thanks to James Harden’s Game 3 performance, the only way Curry doesn’t play on Sunday in Game 4 is if this injury is far more serious than anybody is saying. The Warriors can’t afford to roll the dice on Sunday like they have in the previous two matchups for fear of allowing Houston to knot this thing at 2-2 while simultaneously breathing new life into this dysfunctional Rockets franchise.

[Satch]

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/24

Curry’s return has NBA bettors clamoring to lay big road points in Sunday’s playoff action
By Patrick Everson
Reigning MVP Stephen Curry is likely to be back in the lineup for the Golden State Warriors today for Game 4 of their NBA Playoffs series against the Houston Rockets. And the line has responded in kind at Las Vegas sportsbooks and online books.
“We moved Golden State from -7.5 to the current line of -9,” Mike Jerome, oddsmaker for TopBet. “I don’t think we will go higher than -9. You never know if that ankle could act up on Curry again.”
Bettors certainly don’t seem to be concerned about that prospect, though.
“People are absolutely hammering the Warriors, with 88 percent of the cash on the spread backing the defending champs,” Jerome said.
At CG Technology books in Las Vegas, a similar tale was unfolding.
“The books are assuming Curry is in, which is why the line is 8.5/9, as opposed to 5 in Game 3,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG. “We are expecting him to play, and the bettors are as well. We’ve had much more action on Golden State thus far.”
Simbal and Jerome said the Warriors-Rockets tilt is seeing the most action of all four of today’s contests, with Jerome adding that San Antonio is also getting a lot of support at TopBet as it tries to sweep Memphis. As was the case in Game 3, the Spurs are double-digit road chalk, but that’s not slowing their support.
“I think people realize the Spurs want to make quick business of Memphis, so they can rest up for the next round,” Jerome said. “Seventy-three percent of betting cash is backing the Spurs at -13.”
However, at CG books, bettors were leaning on the Grizzlies at +13.5.
Meanwhile, the under trend continues to run rampant through the playoffs, hitting in three of Saturday’s four games to improve to 19-7 overall, a stout 73 percent. Yet bettors really haven’t been swayed to eschew overs.
“Despite all of the unders hitting, we have been getting two-way action on lost totals,” Simbal said. “In fact, our two biggest total decisions of Saturday had us needing the under.”
And all those unders have been a boon for Top Bet, as well.
“We’re doing great overall on NBA totals,” Jerome said. “We needed the under in 20 of the 26 games.”