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**TheGame** · 04-18-2016, 07:54 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/18

Playoff Zig-Zag Theory
By Marc Lawrence

In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs.

The premise is simple: "Play On" a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.

The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.

How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.

Here are point-spread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2015.

Game On, Dude

Overall: 819-726-38(53.0%)
Game Two: 204-159-13 (56.2%)
Game Three: 201-168-8(54.5%)
Game Four: 167-170-8 (49.6%)
Game Five: 135-124-7(52.1%)
Game Six: 79-70-2 (51.6%)
Game Seven: 30-27-2 (52.5%)

The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Two where they become a better than 56% point-spread play on the blind.

Burn Baby Burn

Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 15 years (2001-2015), going 508-477-28 – or 51.6% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.

That’s a decline of nearly 4 full percentage points. Or in bottom line terms, they have been money burners on the blind the last 15 seasons. Talk about a buzz kill.

Round ‘Em Up

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared during each round of the NBA Playoffs since 1991:

Round One: 393-346-22 (53.2%)
Round Two: 204-159-13 (56.2%)
Round Three: 120-111-6 (51.9%)
Round Four: 60-53-3 (53.1%)

While it appears Round Two holds a discernable edge, it should be noted that home teams off a double-digit loss in Round Two have yielded the largest profits, as they are 83-54-3 (60.6%).

Planting The Seeds

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared by seed during NBA Playoffs:

No. 1 Seeds: 117-106-5 (52.5%)
No. 2 Seeds: 113-92-4 (55.1%)
No. 3 Seeds: 97-85-9 (53.3%)
No. 4 Seeds: 80-76-1(51.3%)
No. 5 Seeds: 75-71-3(51.4%)
No. 6 Seeds: 81-76-2-2(51.6%)
No. 7 Seeds: 44-65-4(40.4%)
No. 8 Seeds: 66-46-5 (59.0%)

Note these results are since the 1996 season, when we first began charting seeds.

Note the disparate results that abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

Rocky Mountain High

So when is it we can still expect to catch the best possible result when firing up with these with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?

Simple. Look to support double-digit underdogs when they are off a SU and ATS loss. They’ve stood the test of time, going 35-19-2 ATS since 1991. That’s a pretty high 64.8% winning percentage when you think about it.

So instead of zigging when you should be zagging, check out the optimum roles outlined above... and enjoy the games.

**TheGame** · 04-18-2016, 07:55 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/18

Monday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds

The Golden State Warriors aren't sure if they'll be with or without reining MVP Stephen Curry against the Houston Rockets. There is certainly plenty of intrigue heading into Monday's trio of Game 2 matchups.

Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors (-7, 193.5)

Pacers lead series 1-0

All-Star forward Paul George and the Indiana Pacers delivered the opening salvo and look to make it two consecutive road victories when they face the Toronto Raptors on Monday. George poured in 33 points in Saturday's 100-90 victory and Indiana attempts to continue the playoff woes of the Raptors.

Second-seeded Toronto hasn't won a playoff series since 2001 and has dropped its last seven postseason games, which includes last season's four losses to the Washington Wizards. "As a team, as a whole, I thought we were tight," Raptors coach Dwane Casey told reporters. "I know our team did not play to our identity, but I know we'll come back Monday night and play to our identity." The seventh-seeded Pacers plan to ride the coattails of George in this series and he is intent on making a mark in his first postseason appearances since badly breaking his right leg in the summer of 2014. "Paul's shot-making at the end of the game was spectacular," Indiana coach Frank Vogel told reporters in reference to George's 27 second-half points. "It's been a long road for him in terms of actually getting back to the court but before his injury, we were in the conference finals."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBATV, FSN Indiana, Sportsnet (Toronto)

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as seven-point favorites at home and the spread has yet to move off the opening number. The total opened at 193 and was adjusted slightly to 193.5. View complete line history here.

ABOUT THE PACERS (46-37, 42-40-1 ATS, 37-46 O/U): George said after the Game 1 victory that he is still working on getting to be as strong physically as he was prior to the devastating injury that required an arduous recovery. "Some days I felt great, felt like I could have started that night," George told reporters. "Some days I wanted to throw it all in, let Mother Nature heal it without doing any work. It was a little bit of both." George (4-of-5) and shooting guard Monta Ellis (3-of-4) were strong from 3-point range in the opener and Indiana was 11-of-21 overall.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (56-27, 45-38 ATS, 42-40-1 O/U): Game 1 was filled with offensive inefficiency as Toronto shot 38 percent from the field and committed 20 turnovers that led to 25 Indiana points. "We just missed some shots and turned the ball over," All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry told reporters. "Now there's a series of adjustments we have to do in one day. It's one game. This is not last year. We're very positive, we're very confident." Lowry was just 3-of-13 shooting, All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan was only 5-of-19 and center Jonas Valanciunas - who set a franchise playoff record with 19 rebounds - was just 4-of-14.

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Pacers are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5, 200)

Thunder lead series 1-0

The Oklahoma City Thunder put together an immaculate performance in the series opener and look to outclass Dallas again when they host the visiting Mavericks on Monday. The Thunder rolled to a 108-70 annihilation of Dallas on Saturday in what was the franchise's largest margin of victory in a playoff game since relocating from Seattle to Oklahoma City prior to the 2008-09 campaign.

The third-seeded Thunder missed the playoffs last season and came out with a vengeance against the Mavericks as if they had a point to make. "We just wanted to come out and impose our will early," All-Star forward Kevin Durant told reporters. "We didn't want to ease into the game. We wanted to be the aggressor. We came out and did a good job." Sixth-seeded Dallas set dubious franchise playoff records for fewest points scored and worst field-goal percentage (29.8 percent) in a truly woeful showing. "I guess the only positive I take out if this - it's only one game," power forward Dirk Nowitzki told reporters. "If you lose by two or by 50, in the playoffs, it's only one game. We've got another crack to steal one on Monday night. We've got to play harder, we've got to play better. It's as simple as that."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Oklahoma

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened as 13-point favorites but that line was quickly bet up to -13.5. The total opened at 202 and the public jumped all over the under, forcing the books to drop the number a full two points to 200. View complete line history here.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (42-41, 45-37-1 ATS, 39-43-1 O/U): Point guard J.J. Barea has been one of the team's better players this month but his availability is in jeopardy after he aggravated a groin injury during the second half of Game 1. "I'm very, very concerned," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle told reporters. "I think something happened. I don't think it's just tight." Nowitzki scored 18 points on Saturday and the rest of the starting lineup combined for just 12 points on 5-of-25 shooting as guards Deron Williams (1-of-9), Wesley Matthews (3-of-10) and Barea (1-of-6) were unable to get untracked.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (56-27, 38-44-1 ATS, 39-44 O/U): Point guard Russell Westbrook (24 points and 11 assists in 29 minutes) and Durant (23 points in 26 minutes) were productive as usual but Oklahoma City also received a strong performance from power forward Serge Ibaka, who had 17 points on 7-of-8 shooting to go with nine rebounds and three blocked shots. Ibaka has struggled recently and went 1-of-12 from the field in his final regular-season appearance but was a much different player in the assault of the Mavericks. "When he's knocking (down shots), it opens it up for us on the offensive end," Durant told reporters. "Then guarding Dirk is tough. He made it tough on him all night. He was helping off, protecting the rim, spreading the floor. He was good, but we need him to be better next game."

TRENDS:

* Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-13, 218)

Warriors lead series 1-0

The Golden State Warriors looked every bit like the best team in the NBA in Game 1 of their first-round series but did not come out of the 26-point victory with all positives. The Warriors hope to have star guard Stephen Curry (ankle) available when they host the eighth-seeded Houston Rockets in Game 2 on Monday.

Curry scored 24 points in 19 minutes in Game 1 but rolled his right ankle and barely played in the second half as the Warriors cruised to a 104-78 win. Coach Steve Kerr called him “questionable” for Game 2, but Curry disagreed. "Right now, don't see a scenario where I'll be out," Curry told reporters. "Obviously, if it's not right and I'm at risk of further injury or whatnot, that's the only thing that we'll have to worry about. Pain tolerance and all that stuff, I kind of know what I can deal with on the court. But you don't want anything more serious to happen, favoring an ankle or whatnot. So that's what we'll kind of pay attention to the next two days.” The Rockets will spend their off day trying to figure out how to coax more offense out of a team that shot 35.7 percent from the field, including 6-of-22 from 3-point range, in the opener.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, ROOT (Houston), CSN Bay Area (Golden State)

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 12.5-point favorites for Game 2 and that line was adjusted up slightly to -13. The total opened at 220 but the betting public decided that number was too high and the books adjusted the number to 218. View complete line history here.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (41-42, 37-46 ATS, 47-36 O/U): Houston went with a smaller lineup to try to counter Golden State, inserting Corey Brewer into the starting lineup in place of power forward Donatas Motiejunas to give the defense more athleticism. "Defensively, we thought it gave us more versatility to switch things," Rockets interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff told reporters. "Games we've watched, the way we've studied it, the teams that have had success versus them defensively weren't chasing them all over the floor. They just check in front of them. So we went that way." The defensive changes backfired and the offense stalled as star James Harden went 7-of-19 from the floor and did not attempt a free throw for the first time in 148 games.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (74-9, 46-35-2 ATS, 45-37-1 O/U): Golden State was plus-28 with Curry on the floor in Game 1 and doesn’t want to play without its star, but is prepared if necessary. “If you lose the MVP, it’s going to change your team,” Warriors forward Draymond Green told reporters. “I think he’ll be fine at some point. One man is not going to come out and be Steph Curry. We have to do it collectively. But we have the blueprint (for winning without Curry). We know we can do it, if we have to.” Fellow All-Star guard Klay Thompson struggled from the field (4-of-14) but Green collected 12 points and 10 rebounds and Golden State scored 33 points off Houston’s 24 turnovers in Game 1.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Under is 6-0 in Rockets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.

**TheGame** · 04-18-2016, 07:56 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/18

Preview: Pacers (45-37) at Raptors (56-26)

Date: April 18, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

After Paul George provided the latest postseason pain, the Toronto Raptors are searching for answers as they look to stop their recent cycle of playoff failures.

Dwane Casey believes his outstanding backcourt will regroup Monday night when the Raptors try to avoid an eighth consecutive postseason defeat and even their first-round series with the Indiana Pacers in Game 2 at Air Canada Centre.

George regrouped from a 2-for-9 shooting performance in the first half Saturday by hitting 10 of 13 attempts in the final two quarters on the way to 33 points as Indiana stole homecourt advantage with a 100-90 win. He hit four 3-pointers to go with six assists, four steals and two blocks in an effort coach Frank Vogel called "awesome."

It was a triumphant return to the playoffs for George, who missed all but six games last season after breaking his right leg while playing with Team USA.

"Paul's shot-making at the end of the game was spectacular," Vogel told the team's official website. "It's been a long road for him, in terms of actually getting back on the court, but before his injury, we were in the conference finals."

Several Raptors had no luck containing George. He hit all four shots, including two 3-pointers, when guarded closely by top defender DeMarre Carroll and was 3 for 6 with seven points when DeMar DeRozan was on him. Carroll, however, was limited to 19 minutes off the bench and playing only his fourth game since having right knee surgery Jan. 6.

George also shined defensively, limiting leading scorer DeRozan to 1-of-7 shooting on 36 touches when the All-Star was directly guarding him. The Pacers improved to 26-1 this season when holding opponents to 94 points or fewer.

DeRozan, who averaged 23.5 points during the regular season, finished with 14 on 5-of-19 shooting. Fellow All-Star guard Kyle Lowry, who scored 21.2 per game, was 3 of 13 for 11 points and committed six of the team's 20 turnovers.

"I don't think they're going to shoot like that again," said Casey, whose club hit just 38 percent and missed 15 of 19 from long range. "As a team, I thought we were tight offensively and that frustration carried over to the defensive end. It wasn't us. I hadn't seen us play that tentative on the offensive end all year. That'll change."

The Raptors don't have recent history on their side. After winning the Atlantic Division in 2013-14, they dropped the last two of a seven-game first-round series against Brooklyn before Washington swept them in an opening series last season.

Toronto is coming off a club-record 56 wins and third consecutive Atlantic crown but is still trying to end the longest playoff skid in team history. Its only postseason triumph came in a five-game series win over New York in 2001.

"This is not last year," Lowry insisted. "We're very positive, we're very confident."

Cory Joseph was a bright spot off the bench, finishing with 18 points on 5-of-6 shooting. Jonas Valanciunas fouled out with a team playoff-record 19 rebounds and the Raptors ended up with a 52-38 advantage on the glass.

The Pacers still have room to improve defensively in Game 2 after allowing a Toronto team that shot a franchise-record 1,702 free throws during the regular season to get to the line 38 times. They were bailed out when the Raptors only made 26.

Indiana will also look to continue its solid 3-point shooting after it had gone just 16 for 55 (29.1 percent) in the last two regular-season matchups. Monta Ellis made three of his four attempts in the opener to help the Pacers go 11 for 21.

"We're hoping that we've settled on something that can be successful for us in the playoffs," Vogel said. "We're off to a good start but obviously a lot of work to do still."

The Raptors weren't very good defending the perimeter during the regular season, ranking 29th in opponent 3-point percentage at 37.3.

**TheGame** · 04-18-2016, 07:56 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/18

Preview: Mavericks (42-40) at Thunder (55-27)

Date: April 18, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

Though so much went right for the Oklahoma City Thunder and wrong for the Dallas Mavericks in the opener, both clubs feel that won't mean much once Game 2 tips off.

There will be some negative carryover, however, for the Mavericks' already anemic offense now that J.J. Barea has been ruled out after aggravating his groin injury.

The host Thunder will try to come out with the same sense of urgency, particularly on the defensive end, Monday night as they try to take a 2-0 lead.

Oklahoma City got out to a fast start Saturday by scoring the first nine points and building a 59-33 halftime advantage en route to a 108-70 rout that marked their most lopsided postseason victory since moving from Seattle in 2008-09.

The Thunder's two All-Stars led the way before sitting out the entire fourth quarter. Russell Westbrook finished 24 points, 11 assists and five rebounds and Kevin Durant added 23 points, five assists and five boards.

The Mavericks haven't had much success defending Oklahoma City all season, allowing an average of 111.6 points on 48.4 percent shooting while dropping five meetings.

'We didn't want to ease into the game," said Durant, who finished third during the regular season with 28.2 points per game. "We wanted to be the aggressor.'

Serge Ibaka had 17 points, nine rebounds and three blocks and Enes Kanter contributed 16 points and 13 boards. Ibaka has been particularly tough on Dallas at home, averaging 17.6 points on 60.4 percent shooting with 11.5 rebounds in his last eight meetings.

Oklahoma City dominated the glass 56-33 while limiting Dallas to 29.8 percent shooting. It was not only the fewest points the franchise has ever allowed in a postseason contest, but also the fewest the Mavericks have ever scored in the playoffs.

"Our defense was good and they're a terrific shooting team," Thunder coach Billy Donovan told the team's official website. "It's a seven game series and this is one game."

Dirk Nowitzki finished with 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting, but no other Dallas player scored more than eight and the rest of team shot a combined 18 for 69 (26 percent).

'I guess the only positive I take out if this - it's only one game. If you lose by two or by 50, in the playoffs, it's only one game,' Nowitzki said. 'We've got another crack to steal one on Monday. We've got to play harder, we've got to play better.'

The Mavericks, however, won't have Barea after he sat out the second half with a groin strain. The guard had averaged 22.3 points while hitting 21 of 42 from 3-point range over a seven-game stretch before the injury limited his play over the past five games.

The backcourt could be further thinned with fellow starting guard Deron Williams doubtful with pain in his pelvis and groin. He finished with two points on 1-of-9 shooting in just under 22 minutes.

David Lee also could miss his second straight game with a plantar fascia injury, while third-leading scorer Chandler Parsons is already out following knee surgery.

It should be interesting to see who coach Rick Carlisle decides to go with at center. Rookie Salah Mejri got the nod in the opener, but finished with one point and four rebounds in 15 minutes. Zaza Pachulia scored five on 1-of-6 shooting with six boards off the bench.

"We were not the team that we've been the past two and half weeks," Carlisle told the team's official website. "And I take a great deal of responsibility for that, so I've got to do a better job getting them ready for Game 2."

The Thunder hope Nick Collison will play after sitting out the second half on Saturday because of a chest contusion. They're experienced enough to understand that one outstanding postseason performance doesn't necessarily carry over to the next game.

The Mavericks are counting on that.

'Each game is different, and we've got to be ready for a different team,' Durant said.

**TheGame** · 04-18-2016, 07:57 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/18

Preview: Rockets (41-41) at Warriors (73-9)

Date: April 18, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) - The Golden State Warriors are preparing to play without NBA MVP Stephen Curry for Game 2 of their playoff series Monday night against the Houston Rockets as he nurses an ankle injury.

Even if they know he will beg and plead to play through any pain. As long as he can't make it worse, Curry insists it will be hard to keep him off the court Monday night.

'Oh, yeah, for sure,' coach Steve Kerr said of Curry campaigning to play. 'When Steph's out, our guys understand that he's not there to count on, so they have to execute. If they don't, we're just not going to score enough points.'

Kerr called Curry's status questionable again Sunday, when the point guard didn't practice a day after hurting his right ankle late in the first half of a 104-78 win over the Rockets in the playoff opener.

'Steph is a warrior. If he can play, he's definitely going to be out there,' center Festus Ezeli said.

Curry was undergoing treatment on the ankle Sunday and unavailable for interviews.

'He's doing a little better than yesterday,' Kerr said. 'He'll get some rest, get off his feet and we'll do the same thing tomorrow at shootaround and see how he's feeling.'

If Curry can't play Monday, Shaun Livingston will start in his place. The Warriors won at Houston on Dec. 31 without their superstar.

'It kind of changes things. We don't seem to be as good of a coaching staff when Steph goes out - I don't know why,' Kerr joked after practice. 'We've got a lot of guys who can play. I think Steph missed three or four games this year. We did fine. Obviously we've got to find different ways to score. We'll prepare for that and see what happens.'

Golden State's backups have prided themselves all season in not losing a step when the second team comes into the game. In fact, contributions by the bench were a big reason the Warriors set the NBA record with 73 wins to top the 1995-96 Michael Jordan-led Chicago Bulls that Kerr played for.

'We're prepared. We're going to continue to play. We're ready to step in,' said power forward Marreese Speights, who scored 12 points in 15 minutes off the bench Saturday. 'We've got a lot of guys who can play and will impact the game. We know Steph, when his 30 points are taken off the board - or really 60 points with all the stuff he's doing on the court, playing defense, passing the ball, helping, controlling the offense - but we'll be all right.'

Curry landed awkwardly shortly before halftime Saturday.

'I just tried to change direction, missed the shot, and tried to get back on defense, and then slipped a little bit and felt it slip or tweak,' he said after the game.

Houston looks for a better start after it trailed 33-15 after one quarter of the opener and was down 27 after 24 minutes. The Rockets are trying to remain upbeat about their situation.

'It's only one game,' star guard James Harden said. 'No matter the deficit, you win by 30, you lose by 30, you win by one, it's only one game. Our focus is to come in here and win one game. And we'll have that opportunity Monday night.'

Harden probably needs to play better for the Rockets to have any chance. He scored just 17 points in the opener on 7-of-19 shooting, and one of the NBA's best at creating fouls didn't attempt a single free throw.

The deep and versatile Warriors have a number of options and a good scheme to defend the league's runner-up to Curry for the scoring title.

'For us, to keep him off the free throw line and get those nine extra points he usually gets, that's important for us,' Curry said. 'So my guess is it probably won't happen the rest of the series, but for the most part if we just continue to keep our fundamentals, show our hands, keep our body in front of him, maybe we can control that part of their offensive attack for the most part in the series."

**TheGame** · 04-18-2016, 07:57 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/18

NBA

Monday's games

Indiana-Toronto (Ind 1-0)
Toronto lost its last five first round series; last time they won a first round series was 2001- they got upset 100-90 here Saturday, turning ball over 19 times, going 4-19 on arc, so pressure on them to even series before it heads to Indy. Raptors won seven of last nine games with Indiana; Toronto has covered nine of last 11 series games- six of last nine went over total. Pacers won seven of last nine t overall, four of last five on the road. Raptors won seven of last ten games overall, covering five of last eight.

Dallas-Oklahoma City (OC 1-0)
OC was up 59-33 at half in Saturday's rout; Thunder won last five games with Dallas, but Mavericks are 6-5 vs spread in last 11 vs OKC. Seven of last ten series games went over. Dallas won seven of last ten games, covered four of last six as a dog- Eight of last ten Dallas games stayed under total. Mavericks shot 29.8% in big loss Saturday, 4-18 on arc. Thunder was 12-35 on arc. Every west Game 1 saw favorite win by 20+; dogs were 3-1 vs spread in east.

Houston-Golden State (G 1-0)
Curry's ankle is only question here; he played very little in 2nd half of huge rout Saturday; was it a precaution? Golden State won 10 of last 11 games (7-4 vs the spread) against Houston, covering last six played here. Rockets won three of last four games, are 3-2 vs spread in five tries as an underdog. Warriors won by 26 in first game Saturday, leading 60-33 at half, have to question whether the Rockets want to compete- they shot 36% from floor, 12-24 on line, 6-22 on arc.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 6-2, Over: 2-6

**TheGame** · 04-18-2016, 07:57 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/18

Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors April 18, 7:00 EST

Toronto Raptors hitting a woeful 38.0% from the field, committing 20 turnovers suffered another game-one opening-round playoff loss. The best thing Toronto backers can do after witnessing an eight consecutive opening Conference Quarterfinal failure is 'Forgetaboutit'. That's because Raptors have always dug down deep and responded the game following a RD-1 opening defeat posting a 5-1-1 record against-the-betting line. Additionally, Raptors have responded off its last ten defeats going 7-3 ATS and are 3-0 ATS as home chalk off a 10 or more point thrashing.

**Satch** · 04-18-2016, 09:20 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/18

Gambling recap of a wild NBA Playoffs weekend, look ahead to Game Two
By Joe Fortenbaugh
How’s this as a way to kick-off the 2016 NBA playoffs: through just eight total matchups, there have already been four blowouts of 25 or more points. To put that into perspective, the 2011, 2012 and 2014 NBA playoffs each featured just four total blowouts of 25 or more points during their entire respective postseason runs.
Yes, things got a bit wild as The Association’s annual postseason slugfest got underway Saturday. And between Steph Curry’s ankle injury, Detroit’s feistiness and Toronto’s never-ending first-round woes, things will only get more exhilarating as we progress towards crowing a champion in June.
For now, let’s take a look at how NBA teams have historically fared in a seven-game series based on the series deficit before diving into some matchup-by-matchup analysis.
Best-of-7 series in NBA history:
1-0 lead: 372-111 (77.0%)
2-0 lead: 254-16 (94.1%)
3-0 lead: 118-0 (100.0%)
2-1 lead: 294-71 (80.5%)
3-1 lead: 220-9 (96.1%)
3-2 lead: 238-42 (85.0%)
In addition, take note that only 23 teams in NBA history have emerged victorious in the first two games of a best-of-7 series on the road. Of those 23 clubs, 20 went on to win the series.
No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets
Game 1: Warriors 104, Rockets 78 (at Golden State)
ATS result: Warriors -13 and UNDER 224.5
Game 2: Monday at 10:30pm eastern in Oakland
What you need to know: From the opening whistle, this game was never in doubt as the defending champs jumped out to a 33-15 first quarter lead and never looked back. I was at Oracle Arena on Saturday and can tell you first-hand that Houston’s body language was nothing short of dreadful, which gave the impression to anyone with a pulse that the Rockets would rather be on a beach sipping margaritas than waging war with a 73-win juggernaut.
However, MVP Steph Curry tweaked his ankle just before halftime, sat out practice on Sunday and is officially listed as “questionable” for Game 2 on Monday night. But Houston point guard Patrick Beverley isn’t buying it, stating Sunday when asked if Curry was questionable for Game 2, “S— no. He’s playing.”
Trend to consider: Despite their dominance over the rest of The Association, the Warriors are just 6-6 ATS at home during the playoffs since last season.
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Detroit Pistons
Game 1: Cavaliers 106, Pistons 101 (at Cleveland)
ATS result: Detroit +11 and OVER 200
Game 2: Wednesday at 8:00pm eastern in Cleveland
What you need to know: As predicted by several insiders prior to the start of this series, Detroit gave Cleveland all it could handle from the opening tip by grabbing a 58-53 halftime lead that regressed into a 78-76 edge entering the fourth quarter. But LeBron James finally got some playoff help in the form of 59 combined points from Kyrie Irving (31) and Kevin Love (28) as the Cavaliers took control of an 88-88 tie with 6:29 remaining in the fourth quarter and brought down the curtain on the upstart Pistons thanks to a combination of experience and patience.
Be suspicious of Detroit in Game 2, as the Pistons went 15/29 (51.7%) from three-point range on Sunday. That type of accuracy will be tough to maintain for a team that shot just 34.5% from deep during the regular season (t-21st in NBA).
Trend to consider: LeBron James has now won 14 consecutive first-round playoff games and has never failed to advance past the conference quarterfinals in ten attempts.
No. 2 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 7 Indiana Pacers
Game 1: Pacers 100, Raptors 90 (at Toronto)
ATS result: Indiana +7 and UNDER 195
Game 2: Monday at 7:00pm eastern in Toronto
What you need to know: The Raptors are now 0-8 all-time in their first game of the playoffs, with this latest loss coming thanks to an inability to defend Pacers forward Paul George, who became the first Indiana player since Jalen Rose in 2000 to record 30 points and 5 assists in a postseason game. Not only that, but George locked it down on the defensive end of the floor as well by limiting Raptors All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan to 3/15 shooting when marked by George. Indiana’s upset victory marked the end of the franchise’s five-game losing streak at Air Canada Centre.
Trend to consider: The Pacers have now covered the spread in four straight games as well as in five of their last six outings.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies
Game 1: Spurs 106, Grizzlies 74 (at San Antonio)
ATS result: Spurs -17 and UNDER 188.5
Game 2: Tuesday at 9:30pm eastern in San Antonio
What you need to know: San Antonio shot 68% from the field during the third quarter while outscoring Memphis 33-14 to hand the Grizzlies their worst postseason loss in franchise history on Sunday night. Never was the absence of both Memphis center Marc Gasol and point guard Mike Conley more evident than during the first quarter when the Grizzlies notched just 13 total points en route to a nine-point deficit after just 12 minutes of action.
Between one of the deepest rosters in the league in San Antonio and one of the most banged-up clubs in the league in Memphis, this series has all the makings of a blowout.
Trend to consider: San Antonio is now 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 ATS against Memphis this season while winning by an average of 16.4 points per game.
No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 6 Dallas Mavericks
Game 1: Thunder 108, Mavericks 70 (at Oklahoma City)
ATS result: Oklahoma City -12 and UNDER 206
Game 2: Monday at 8:00pm eastern in Oklahoma City
What you need to know: Oklahoma City forward Kevin Durant checked out of Game 1 for good with 4:43 remaining in the third quarter. At that point, Durant and All-Star teammate Russell Westbrook had outscored the entire Mavericks roster 43-42 by themselves. The 70 total points Dallas posted on Saturday night marks the fewest points scored in a playoff game in franchise history, while Oklahoma City’s 38-point win was the club’s second-largest margin of victory in a playoff game in team history.
Be advised that only two teams in NBA history have gone on to win a playoff series after losing a game by at least 38 points.
Trend to consider: Oklahoma City is now 5-0 straight-up and 3-2 ATS in five games against Dallas this season.
No. 3 Miami Heat vs. No. 6 Charlotte Hornets
Game 1: Heat 123, Hornets 91 (at Miami)
ATS result: Miami -4.5 and OVER 199
Game 2: Wednesday at 7:00pm in Miami
What you need to know: It was a performance for the ages in South Beach on Sunday as the Heat tied a franchise playoff record with 41 first-quarter points and broke another franchise playoff record with 123 total points in a 32-point route of a Hornets team that was outmatched and out-hustled from the jump.
Making just their third playoff appearance since re-emerging as the Charlotte Bobcats in 2004-2005, the Hornets shot just 6/17 (35.3%) from three-point range and recorded a grand total of only 11 assists, while the Heat went 9/18 from deep and notched 27 assists with just six turnovers committed.
Trend to consider: The OVER has hit in each of Charlotte’s last six games.
No. 4 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 5 Boston Celtics
Game 1: Hawks 102, Celtics 101 (at Atlanta)
ATS result: Boston +5.5 and UNDER 206
Game 2: Tuesday at 7:00pm in Atlanta
What you need to know: Despite a valiant second-half effort, the Boston Celtics have now dropped six straight playoff games for the first time since losing eight consecutive postseason showdowns from 2003-2004 thanks, in large part, to Atlanta point guard Jeff Teague’s third career postseason effort of at least 20 points (23) and 10 assists (12). Boston fell behind 30-19 in the first quarter and 51-34 at halftime before a second-half surge brought the club to within striking distance within the final minute.
However, the loss of point guard Avery Bradley to a hamstring injury with 6:42 left in the fourth quarter ultimately doomed Boston’s chances. Bradley is currently considered doubtful to play in the rest of the series according to Celtics head coach Brad Stevens.
Trend to consider: The Hawks are now 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 ATS in five games against Boston this season.
No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers
Game 1: Clippers 115, Trail Blazers 95 (at Portland)
ATS result: Los Angeles -8.5 and UNDER 210.5
Game 2: Wednesday at 10:30pm eastern in Los Angeles
What you need to know: The second-largest Game 1 victory in Clippers playoff history featured Los Angeles point guard Chris Paul’s 21st career postseason game with at least 20 points (28) and 10 assists (11). Damian Lillard and the Blazers proved no match in Game 1 as Portland was outscored in all four quarters and pummeled in the second half by a margin of 65-53.
Perhaps what’s most terrifying for the Blazers is that Los Angeles power forward Blake Griffin (19 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists in 31 minutes) appears to be back in form after returning to action just two weeks ago following a 45-game absence due to both hand and quadriceps injuries. Take note that the Clippers have now won four straight games against the Trail Blazers dating back to the regular season.
Trend to consider: The Trail Blazers are 2-13 all-time in a best-of-7 playoff series when falling behind 1-0. However, the Clippers have lost three of their last four playoff series after winning Game 1.

**Satch** · 04-18-2016, 09:22 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/18

Monday’s Playoff Essentials
By Tony Mejia
Indiana at Toronto, 7:05 PM ET – NBA TV
2015-16 Meetings
Oct 28, 2015 – Indiana 99 at Toronto 106 (Raptors -5.5, Over 200)
Dec 14, 2015 – Toronto 90 at Indiana 106 (Pacers -4.5, Under 200)
Mar 17, 2016 – Toronto 101 at Indiana 94 – OT (Raptors +1.5, Under 203.5)
Apr 8, 2016 – Indiana 98 at Toronto 111 (Raptors +5.5, Over 195)
Apr 16, 2016 – Indiana 100 at Toronto 90 (Pacers +7, Under 195)
The Pacers (46-37 SU, 43-40 ATS) opened action north of the border wanting to put some doubts in the Raptors (56-27 SU, 45-38 ATS) given their recent playoff history. Consider that mission accomplished, as Indiana walked out of Air Canada Centre with a 100-90 Game 1 win that extended Toronto’s playoff losing streak to seven games. Despite wrapping up its third consecutive Atlantic Division title with a franchise-record 56 victories, the Raptors face a must-win situation considering that they’ve already surrendered homecourt advantage and will play the next two in Indianapolis beginning Thursday.
Failing to win here would make life tough on head coach Dwane Casey, who is just 3-6 since joining the Raps after serving as a top assistant on Rick Carlisle’s staff for 2010-11 NBA Champion Dallas. Casey is the franchise’s all-time winningest coach, but there’s disappointment that his reputation as a great defensive mind has been unable to produce results when it matters most. The Wizards averaged 116 points over the last three contests of the 2015 playoffs in closing out Toronto, while the Pacers reached 100 on Saturday, scoring 30 in the fourth quarter and connecting on 11 3-pointers.
Paul George finished with 33 points and team-highs with six assists and four steals, so Casey is going to have to come up with answers to stop him from getting into a similar rhythm in Game 2. Monta Ellis came through with 15 points and five assists, while George Hill scored 10 and helped handle pressure and keep the ball movement. Off the bench, Solomon Hill and rookie Myles Turner, Indiana’s most recent first-round picks, combined for 23 points, seven rebounds and five blocks.
DeMar DeRozan (23.5 points per game) and Kyle Lowry (21.2 ppg), combined to shoot 8-for-32 (25 percent) in Game 1, which included going 1-for-10 from beyond the arc. Toronto shot 4-for-19 from 3-point range. No matter what Casey devises on the defensive end, the Raptors don’t have a prayer if their All-Star backcourt is going to perform as poorly as they did Saturday. Casey commented that it was the most tentative he’d seen his team play on the offensive end this entire season. The Raptors did win the rebounding battle by a 52-38 count, getting a franchise playoff-record 19 from Jonas Valanciunas, who kept possessions alive with 11 offensive boards.
The Raptors won three of four meetings from the Pacers this season, including both in Toronto, but those results are ancient history entering Monday. The Raptors are now 11-12 ATS record as a home favorite of nine points or less, but had won seven consecutive games (5-2 ATS) where they were favored prior to the Game 1 upset. Indiana is now an impressive 7-1 ATS mark this season as an underdog of six points or more. Indiana snapped a five-game losing streak in Toronto that dated back to March 1, 2013. The ‘under’ has prevailed in the last three Pacers games and three of the last four involving the Raptors.
Dallas at Oklahoma City, 8:05 p.m. ET – TNT
2015-16 Meetings
Nov 22, 2015 – Dallas 114 at Oklahoma City 117 (Mavs +3.5, Over 208.5)
Jan 13, 2016 – Dallas 89 at Oklahoma City 108 (Thunder -12.5, Under 207)
Jan 22, 2016 – Oklahoma City 109 at Dallas 106 (Mavs +6.5, Over 208)
Feb 24, 2016 – Oklahoma City 116 at Dallas 103 (Thunder -5.5, Over 215)
Apr 16, 2016 – Dallas 70 at Oklahoma City 108 (Thunder -12, Under 206)
While the Mavericks (42-41 SU, 44-38-1 ATS) knew they were in for a tough time against a full-strength Thunder squad on the road, Saturday’s 108-70 result provided a glaring reminder of just how tough the sledding is for the short-handed visitors. Oklahoma City led wire-to-wire, scoring the first nine points en route to winning the first three quarters by a 93-51 count. OKC took its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, resting regulars, but dominated at both ends of the floor over the first 36 minutes. In all, the 38-point win was the largest since the team moved to Oklahoma from Seattle and the 33 points surrendered at halftime set a new franchise defensive record.
Dallas shot a franchise playoff record-worst 29.8 percent from the field in the loss and didn’t have one of its primary catalysts, guard J.J. Barea, available for the second half due to a groin injury that is expected to keep him out of this one. He shot just 1-for-6, scoring 2 points in 16 minutes after often leading the team in scoring as one of the driving forces for the team’s playoff push down the stretch.
One of the few advantages Dallas figured to have in this series was with veteran Rick Carlisle pushing buttons against playoff newbie Billy Donovan, but without a healthy team, his hands appear tied. Deron Williams, who has also been nursing a number of ailments over the past few weeks, shot 1-for-9. He’s considered doubtful here. Dirk Nowitzki (7-for-15), Justin Anderson (2-for-5) and JaVale McGee (1-for-1) were the only Mavs to shoot even 40 percent from the field. The rest of the team went a combined 15-for-63 (23.8 pct). Besides Barea, David Lee (foot) missed Game 1 and is considered a long shot to participate on Monday. Key forward Chandler Parsons, a versatile starter, was lost to a season-ending knee injury in mid-March.
OKC won the rebounding battle 56-33 and blocked six shots while Dallas swatted none, controlling every aspect of the contest. Bigs Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams combined to shoot 16-for-22, feeding off the attention the Mavs had to pay Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who combined for 47 points, 10 rebounds and 16 assists despite neither playing 30 minutes.
Oklahoma City (56-27 SU, 38-44-1 ATS) is now 5-0 against the Mavericks this season and is 33-9 at home (21-20-1 ATS). The Thunder have gone 19-2 as a double-digit home favorite this season and are now 11-10 ATS. Dallas has been a road underdog 33 times, going 17-15-1 ATS with 11 outright victories, but they’re now 2-5 against the number in the same double-digit road underdog role that awaits it tonight. The ‘under’ is now 44-39 overall for the Thunder, and has prevailed in 26 of their 42 home contests. The ‘under’ has cashed in 8 of the Mavs’ last 10 games.
Houston at Golden State, 10:35 PM EST – TNT
2015-16 Meetings
Oct 30, 2015 – Golden State 112 at Houston 92 (Warriors -1, Under 216.5)
Dec 31, 2015 – Golden State 114 at Houston 110 (Warriors +3.5, Over 211)
Feb 9, 2016 – Houston 110 at Golden State 123 (Rockets +13.5, Over 229)
Apr 16, 2016 – Houston 78 at Golden State 104 (Warriors -13, Under 224.5)
All eyes will be on the right ankle of soon-to-be back-to-back MVP Stephen Curry, who is officially listed as questionable after tweaking it in the second quarter while trying to get back on defense. He had his ankle re-taped at halftime but played less than three second-half minutes due to discomfort and then sat the rest of the way since the game was out of hand. While Curry said post-game that he expects to play, monitor his availability throughout the day to see if he’s undergoing his normal pre-game routines. Obviously, if developments arise that lead to him missing this Game 2, the point spread should be affected by at least 3-to-4 points.
Curry scored 24 points in less than 20 minutes of action on Saturday afternoon, getting his team off to a hot start by knocking down 5-of-7 from 3-point range. The rest of the Warriors were just 5-for-18 from beyond the arc, dominating instead by locking down defensively in holding Houston to just 35.7 percent shooting. Curry made just one 3-pointer less than the entire Rockets team despite taking 15 fewer attempts.
The Rockets committed 24 turnovers in a brutal performance. James Harden was the primary culprit with six and was a team-worst -27 when out on the floor. Dwight Howard turned it over five times, shot 4-for-11 from the free-throw line and was unable to get much done in the post against Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and the undersized Draymond Green. If Houston can’t get much done in the paint, they’re at the mercy of Golden State’s pace and aren’t likely to get the open looks necessary to hang with the NBA’s most efficient offensive team. The Rockets shot 6-for-22 from 3-point range as a group, while Harden missed 12 of his 19 attempts and failed to get to the free-throw line even once.
Golden State (74-9 SU, 46-35-2 ATS) eliminated Houston in last year’s Western Conference finals, so they came into this postseason with plenty of respect for a team that has fallen on hard times. Houston (41-42 SU, 37-46 ATS) finally reached the playoffs on the final night of the regular season after Utah left the door open due to its own collapse, but any thought that it might be able to capitalize on its late momentum and catch the Warriors basking in their newly minted place in NBA regular-season history went out the window during a 33-15 first quarter in which the champs never trailed.
Harden has a 37-point game against Golden State this season but has largely struggled, now shooting just 38 percent from the field against the Warriors through the three games he’s participated in. After coming in second to Curry in this year’s league scoring race, the Rockets star had to come into this series expecting that his team would only go as far as he’d be able to take them by matching Curry shot for shot. The inability to even get to the free-throw line and his struggles against the Dubs’ long wing defenders limited his effectiveness in the series opener, so we’ll see how he’s able to adjust.
Golden State is 2-1 (1-2 ATS) without Curry in the lineup this season, which includes a 114-110 win over Houston when he sat on Dec. 31. The Warriors are now 23-21 ATS as a double-digit favorite. In last year’s postseason, The Rockets are now 1-2 ATS and 0-3 straight up as a double-digit underdog, losing games by an average margin of 19 points.

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NBA Betting Info. 4/18

NBA Betting Info. 4/18

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