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**TheGame** · 04-15-2016, 07:40 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/15

1st Round Series Odds

Home Team listed first - Best of 7 Games (2-2-1-1-1)
(Opening Odds in parentheses)

Eastern Conference - First Round

Cleveland vs. Detroit
Cavaliers (-1600)
Pistons (+1000)

Toronto vs. Indiana
Raptors (-300)
Pacers (+250)

Miami vs. Charlotte
Heat (-175)
Hornets (+140)

Atlanta vs. Boston
Hawks (-150)
Celtics (+155)

Western Conference - First Round

Golden State vs. Houston
Warriors (-8500)
Rockets (+2100)

San Antonio vs. Memphis
Spurs (-10000)
Grizzlies (+2500)

Oklahoma City vs. Dallas
Thunder (-3000)
Mavericks (+1400)

L.A. Clippers vs. Portland
Clippers (-300)
Trail Blazers (+25)

Exact Game Props

Pistons vs. Cavaliers
5 Games Cavaliers Win 6/5
4 Games Cavaliers Win 3/1
6 Games Cavaliers Win 3/1
7 Games Cavaliers Win 4/1
6 Games Pistons Win 15/1
7 Games Pistons Win 20/1
5 Games Pistons Win 50/1
4 Games Pistons Win 100/1

Pacers vs. Raptors
5 Games Raptors Win 8/5
7 Games Raptors Win 3/1
6 Games Raptors Win 4/1
4 Games Raptors Win 6/1
6 Games Pacers Win 6/1
7 Games Pacers Win 10/1
5 Games Pacers Win 15/1
4 Games Pacers Win 30/1

Hornets vs. Heat
7 Games Heat Win 5/2
5 Games Heat Win 7/2
6 Games Hornets Win 7/2
6 Games Heat Win 4/1
7 Games Hornets Win 5/1
4 Games Heat Win 10/1
5 Games Hornets Win 10/1
4 Games Hornets Win 18/1

Celtics vs. Hawks
7 Games Hawks Win 3/1
5 Games Hawks Win 7/2
6 Games Celtics Win 4/1
6 Games Hawks Win 4/1
7 Games Celtics Win 5/1
4 Games Hawks Win 10/1
5 Games Celtics Win 10/1
4 Games Celtics Win 18/1

Rockets vs. Warriors
4 Games Warriors Win 2/7
5 Games Warriors Win 7/5
6 Games Warriors Win 10/1
7 Games Warriors Win 25/1
7 Games Rockets Win 100/1
6 Games Rockets Win 150/1
5 Games Rockets Win 500/1
4 Games Rockets Win 1500/1

Grizzlies vs. Spurs
4 Games Spurs Win 1/4
5 Games Spurs Win 8/5
6 Games Spurs Win 8/1
7 Games Spurs Win 25/1
7 Games Grizzlies Win 150/1
6 Games Grizzlies Win 200/1
5 Games Grizzlies Win 500/1
4 Games Grizzlies Win 2000/1

Mavericks vs. Thunder
5 Games Thunder Win 6/5
4 Games Thunder Win 8/5
6 Games Thunder Win 4/1
7 Games Thunder Win 6/1
6 Games Mavericks Win 25/1
7 Games Mavericks Win 40/1
5 Games Mavericks Win 100/1
4 Games Mavericks Win 250/1

Blazers vs. Clippers
5 Games Clippers Win 8/5
7 Games Clippers Win 14/5
6 Games Clippers Win 4/1
4 Games Clippers Win 6/1
6 Games Blazers Win 7/1
7 Games Blazers Win 8/1
5 Games Blazers Win 20/1
4 Games Blazers Win 40/1

Odds Subject to Change

**TheGame** · 04-15-2016, 07:40 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/15

1st Round Betting Angles
By Marc Lawrence

Opening Round Betting Strategies

With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991.

Here’s what the machine has to say.

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (54-133 straight up) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to the second round of the playoffs.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch like an roaming 8-ball in the side pocket, going 4-25 SU and 9-20 against the spread, including 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of 4 or more points in their last game.

Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 90-24 SU and 68-42-4, a rock solid number. And if they are squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed they improve to 48-6 SU and 38-16-2 ATS – including 15-2-2 ATS when favored by less than 8 points..

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 32-17-2 ATS in this role.

And if these same guys are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 26-7 ATS, including 19-3 ATS when facing a non-division foe.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 46-63 SU and 44-61-4 ATS away from home this round, including 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-27 SU and 8-22 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Trending

Defending champions (the Golden State Warriors in this case) are 74-33 SU and 59-44-4 ATS in opening round games the next season, including 16-8 SU and 15-8-1 ATS in Game One of Round One. They are, however, just 5-9 ATS as double-digit chalk in this round.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2016 NBA playoffs.

**TheGame** · 04-15-2016, 07:40 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/15

First Round Predictions

The 16-team field for the NBA Playoffs was finalized on Wednesday with Houston clinching the eighth and final seed in the Western Conference. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they’ll open the postseason against the defending champion Golden State Warriors.

Oddsmakers aren’t giving Houston much of a chance in this series and NBA handicapper Tony Mejia doesn’t believe we’ll see any shockers in the West.

Mejia explained, “I wouldn't advise anyone to take a shot at a Western Conference upset, series price-wise. Although the Warriors/Rockets could've conceivably been a conference finals on paper when the season began, 82 doses of reality should've slapped you in the face enough to know an upset isn't coming there.”

“The Grizzlies were swept out of the 2013 conference finals by the Spurs last time these teams met in the playoffs, and they're spiraling towards a similar fate without Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. Rick Carlisle is calling his team the "masking tape" Mavs given their journey this season, but even his elite coaching isn't likely to make a dent against OKC unless he takes Billy Donovan completely apart and Dirk Nowitzki suddenly looks a decade younger.”

“That leaves the Clips and Blazers as the best spot for an upset, but if Blake Griffin continues to quickly round into shape, there's little chance of that either.”

Editor and NBA contributor Chris David echoes Mejia’s thoughts in the West but he’s more confident with the top quartet. He said, “The top four seeds in the West were all but locked in by the All-Star break and I look at this first round as nothing but a formality. The NBA has always been a top-heavy league and the disparity in the West between 1-4 and 5-8 is huge. I did give some thought about Portland being able to steal one at home to the Clippers but Los Angeles should be able to exploit the frontcourt of the Trail Blazers and break out the broom.”

Based on the series prices, the oddsmakers expect the Eastern Conference to be more competitive, especially in two of the matchups.

Kevin Rogers, a NBA handicapper and contributor on VI, is intrigued by the 4-5 matchup in the East and believes bettors will see a seven-game series. Rogers explained, “The most interesting series in the first round takes place between the Hawks and Celtics. Atlanta took a step backwards this season after capturing the top seed in the East last season, as the Hawks needed six games in each of the first two rounds against the Nets and Wizards. Boston drew Cleveland last season as an inexperienced playoff team and was predictably swept. The Celtics lost three of four meetings with the Hawks this season with the two road losses coming by double-digits. Neither team has a bevy of All-Stars and the matchup is all but even on paper, but Atlanta’s homecourt edge should help its cause.”

Similar to Mejia and Rogers, David is buying the Hawks, Raptors and Cavaliers in the first round but he’s the lone 'capper backing the Hornets. Why?

David answered, "I can certainly make an argument for Miami in this series as well but I believe Charlotte matches up better and a big part of my handicapping is current form. Outside of the Warriors and Spurs, the Hornets posted the best record (21-8) in the second-half of the season and that includes a 10-6 road mark. Plus, they’ve only dropped back-to-back games once during this span. Miami’s homecourt advantage isn’t as strong as past seasons and outside of Wade, the Heat aren’t exactly playoff tested. One number that also jumped out at me was Charlotte’s perfect record in overtime 5-0 and I’m guessing we’ll see at least one of these games go to an extra session.”

Below are each analyst’s predictions for all eight opening round series:

Eastern Conference

Matchup Kevin Rogers Chris David Tony Mejia

1 Cleveland vs. 8 Detroit
4-0
4-2
4-0
2 Toronto vs. 7 Indiana
4-2
4-3
4-3
3 Miami vs. 6 Charlotte
4-2
4-2
4-2
4 Atlanta vs. 5 Boston
4-3
4-2
4-3

Western Conference

Matchup Kevin Rogers Chris David Tony Mejia

1 Golden State vs. 8 Houston
4-1
4-0
4-1
2 San Antonio vs. 7 Memphis
4-0
4-0
4-0
3 Oklahoma City vs. 6 Dallas
4-1
4-0
4-1
4 L.A. Clippers vs. 5 Portland
4-1
4-0
4-2

**TheGame** · 04-15-2016, 07:41 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/15

NBA Playoff Opening Round Betting Strategies
By MARC LAWRENCE

With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening round of the NBA playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say.

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (54-133 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoffs.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch like an roaming 8-ball in the side pocket, going 4-25 SU and 9-20 ATS, including 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of four or more points in their last game.

Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 90-24 SU and 68-42-4, a rock solid number. And if they are squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed they improve to 48-6 SU and 38-16-2 ATS – including 15-2-2 ATS when favored by less than eight points.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. They don’t lose their composure, instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 32-17-2 ATS in this role.

If these same teams are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 26-7 ATS, including 19-3 ATS when facing a non-division foe.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies, but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 46-63 SU and 44-61-4 ATS away from home this round, including 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-27 SU and 8-22 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Trending

Defending champions (the Golden State Warriors in this case) are 74-33 SU and 59-44-4 ATS in opening round games the next season, including 16-8 SU and 15-8-1 ATS in Game One of Round One. They are, however, just 5-9 ATS as double-digit chalk in this round.

**TheGame** · 04-15-2016, 07:41 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/15

'EC Quarterfinal'

Second-seeded Toronto Raptors off a franchise best 56-26 (45-37 ATS) campaign take on seventh-seeded Indiana Pacers earning their postseason spot behind a 45-37 record (41-40-1 ATS). According to the current opening number the Raptors are handing Pacers 6.0 points of offense in this early Saturday afternoon matchup at the Air Canada Center.

Raptors lead by DeMar DeRozan (23.5), Kyle Lowry (21.2) are netting 102.7 points/game on 45.0% from the field, 37.0% from long range, 77.7% from the charity line. Defensively, Raptors rank third in points allowed at 98.2 and 11th in defensive field goal percentage (44.4 %).

Pacers ranked 17th in scoring at 102.2 points/game share the wealth with five players in double digits lead by Paul George (23.1). At the other end, Pacers are eighth overall in points allowed (100.6 ppg) holding opponents to 44.0% from the field and a stellar third in three-point defense at 33.4%.

A Raptors team intent on erasing the bad taste of last year's 0-4 SU/ATS drubbing in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal does not bode well for the Pacers in this opener. Consider laying the points. Toronto was a sparkling 32-9 (23-18 ATS) on home court this season, Pacers were an unimpressive 19-22 (21-20 ATS) on enemy hardwood. Additionally, Toronto has had the edge in this series, winning three of four this season (3-1 ATS) and six of the past seven encounters (6-1 ATS).

**TheGame** · 04-15-2016, 07:42 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/15

Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Pistons Provide Cleveland's First Playoff Hurdle

The Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25, 37-42-3 ATS) will host the Detroit Pistons (44-38, 42-38-2 ATS) this weekend in Game 1 of their first-round series. Detroit took three out of four SU/ATS vs. Cleveland this season including Wednesday night's 112-110 OT win at Quicken Loans Arena as 4.0-point road dogs. However, Cavaliers sat LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and J.R. Smith for the home finale.

Detroit is in postseason for the first time since 2008-09, when they were swept in the opening round by Cleveland dropping the cash in each contest. Pistons could be in for another quick exit, Lebron James is 13-0 (10-3 ATS) in his last thirteen Conference Quarterfinals games with Cleveland and Miami.

**Satch** · 04-15-2016, 09:48 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/15

With historic regular season in books, Warriors heavy title faves
By Andrew Caley
After a thrilling final day of the NBA regular season, all of the playoff matchups are set and it’s no surprise, the 73-win Golden State Warriors are the heavy favorites to repeat as NBA Champions.
Not only are Warriors the heavy favorites, they are actually laying chalk in the title odds, currently on the board at 5/7 to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy, according to the Westgate LV Superbook.
The Warriors biggest challenger, at least according to Las Vegas, is the team they faced off in last year’s Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers. LeBron and the Cavs enter the postseason at 3/1 after finishing first in the Eastern Conference with 57 wins.
The team with the third best odds to win the NBA title is no surprise, the San Antonio Spurs, who racked up 67 wins this season and are currently on the board at 7/2.
After those top three, the odds for the remaining teams are noticeably longer. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the fourth best odds at 16/1, followed by the Toronto Raptors at 25/1 and the Los Angeles Clippers at 30/1.
Check out the complete list of NBA title odds below:
Warriors 5/7
Cavaliers 3/1
Spurs 7/2
Thunder 16/1
Raptors 25/1
Clippers 30/1
Heat 40/1
Celtics 50/1
Hawks 60/1
Pacers 100/1
Hornets 100/1
Trail Blazers 200/1
Pistons 200/1
Rockets 300/1
Mavericks 300/1
Grizzlies 1,000/1

**Satch** · 04-15-2016, 09:49 AM

Re: NBA Betting Info. 4/15

NBA Odds: Saturday, April 16 2016 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
Remember last year when the Western Conference playoffs looked like a bloodbath? It appeared to be the deepest field in years with any team capable of upsetting the other in the first round except for No. 8 New Orleans over No. 1 Golden State. This year? The West clearly has chasm between the top four teams and the bottom four. I’d be surprised if any first-round series goes past five games, with that one possibility being Clippers-Trail Blazers. The other three could be sweeps. But in the East, it wouldn’t shock me if any team beat a first-round favorite in a series other than No. 8 Detroit over No. 1 Cleveland.
No. 7 Pacers at No. 2 Raptors (-6, 195)
Indiana missed the playoffs last season because star Paul George played in just six late-season games due to a broken leg. The Pacers clinched the No. 7 seed and avoided Cleveland with a home win over the Knicks on Tuesday and thus sat their starters in Wednesday’s meaningless game in Milwaukee. Toronto also played with a skeleton lineup Wednesday at Brooklyn but won its fourth straight. The Raptors have set a franchise record with 56 wins. But they have flopped the past two seasons in the playoffs as favorites, losing in seven games to the Nets in Round 1 in 2014 and then getting swept by the Wizards in that round last year. These teams met to open this season and Toronto won 106-99 at home. The Raptors took three of four overall in the series, winning it for the second straight year. They have taken seven of the last eight meetings between the two clubs, including five in a row at home. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry averaged 24.3 and 23.7 points, respectively, in three games against the Pacers this season. They each sat out the most recent game on April 8. George played all four and averaged 16.3 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists.
Key trends:
The Pacers are 7-22 against the spread in the past 29 meetings in Toronto. The “over/under” is 4-0 in the past four there.
Early lean:
Raptors and over.
No. 8 Rockets at No. 1 Warriors (-14, 226)
Houston was basically handed the final playoff spot in the West on Wednesday night as the Kings were in total quit mode without star DeMarcus Cousins (most everyone else of note as well) and with reports filtering out before the game that Coach George Karl would be fired (he was). It was no contest, with Houston rolling 116-81 for its third straight win and fourth in a row scoring at least 115 points. James Harden had 38 points to finish second in the NBA in scoring at 29.0 ppg. Harden set career marks in points per game, assists (7.5) and rebounds (6.1) to join LeBron James, Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson as the only players in NBA history to average at least 29 points, seven assists and six rebounds in a season. Golden State routed Memphis on Wednesday, 125-104 to set the NBA record with 73 wins. Steph Curry capped his second straight MVP season with 46 points to win the scoring title at 30.1 ppg. The Warriors beat the Rockets in five games in last season’s Western Conference Finals and swept this regular season.
Key trends:
The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the past 13 meetings. The over is 4-0 in Golden State’s past four at home. The over is 24-9 in Houston’s past 33 vs. the West.
Early lean:
Might Warriors be a bit spent going for 73? Take the points. Go over.
No. 5 Celtics at No. 4 Hawks (-4.5, 207)
The seeding for these two was decided on Wednesday; they actually finished in a four-way tie with Miami and Charlotte at 48-34. Atlanta could have been the No. 3 but lost 109-98 at a Washington team going through the motions and playing backups. Boston ended a two-game losing streak with a 98-88 home win over Miami on Wednesday. The Celtics set a franchise record by rallying from a 26-point deficit. Yet Boston still won’t have home-court advantage in most likely any series. An Atlanta win would’ve given the Cs the edge in a three-way tie between Boston, Charlotte and Miami. The Hawks won the season series with the Celtics 3-1. Atlanta won the most recent meeting 118-107 on April 9 at home. Atlanta has won four straight at home in the series.
Key trends:
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The Celtics are 3-14 ATS in their past 17 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Against teams with a winning record, the over is 7-3 in Boston’s past 10 and 5-1 in Atlanta’s past six.
Early lean:
Hawks and over.
No. 6 Mavericks at No. 3 Thunder (-12, 213)
Dallas’ Rick Carlisle certainly deserves some Coach of the Year consideration with the Mavs back in the playoffs for the 15th time in16 seasons despite that whole DeAndre Jordan fiasco this summer and losing Chandler Parsons for the season a few weeks back. The Mavs lost their finale 96-91 at home to San Antonio even though the Spurs sat four starters. And the Mavs lost reserve forward David Lee to a heel injury; his status going forward isn’t clear. Lee averaged 8.8 points and 7.1 rebounds in 24 games with the Mavericks before the finale. Oklahoma City sat Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka in its meaningless finale Tuesday, losing by four in overtime. Westbrook had an NBA-high 18 triple-doubles this season. The Thunder are 18-0 in those games. Westbrook had an amazing season, averaging 23.5 points, 10.4 assists and 7.8 rebounds. He might be MVP if not for Curry. Oklahoma City won all four meetings with Dallas this season.
Key trends:
The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 vs. teams with a winning record. The underdog is 19-8 ATS in the past 27 meetings. The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings.
Early lean:
Mavericks cover, go under as Dallas has been great on defense of late and slowing it down.

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NBA Betting Info. 4/15

NBA Betting Info. 4/15

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