This is the problem with this game...

It's the damn schizophrenia. I've become a fan of the "scoreless first inning" prop bet. It is (usually) a low-stress, quick payout situation when the right tosser is on the mound. But today, with decent pitchers to be acknowledged all throughout the day, 9 out of the first 10 games had scores in the first inning. The numbers are insane. Other days, a score in the first inning will almost be a given. i.e. a Colorado home game against someone like the Pirates or Phillies. Then they go 3 or 5 scoreless innings.

The schizophrenia rips me apart sometimes. Sonny Gray (OAK) and Chris Sale (CWS) are supposed to be GOD level pitchers. They've both let me down recently and cost me significant portions of my stack. This is not so much a complaint as acknowledgement of the unpredictability of the game.

Oh yeah, and I also bet a scoreless first inning when Yu Darvish was on the mound against HOU. Top of the first, TEX went down with minimal resistance. Darvish comes out with an uncharacteristic 11 pitches to the first batter who eventually works a walk. This led to a run before the end of the inning. Mind you, odds for a scoreless first inning were -140 which is about as solid as it comes before money gets ridiculous. (such as in cases of Kershaw or F. Hernandez on the mound where a scoreless 1st inning will cost you -170) Oh and guess what, today (8/10) at that price, Kershaw gave up a run in the first before pitching the rest of a shutout...

Schizophrenia. Pure and simple. The game needs bi-polar pills if one is to succeed with the given numbers.

Tyson Ross is 13-3 on the under. We all know how unreliable SD offense can be. They come out and put up 8 runs. SMH

This game... this game.

[UncleMyu]

Re: This is the problem with this game...

Thanks for reading. And thanks to @TheGame for keeping those reports coming. Even though teams tend to ignore what the numbers are and just ruin all kinds of parlays. I still appreciate the effort of assembling and presenting that information each day.

[666les]

Re: This is the problem with this game...

Thats an insightful stat that Game has everyday but when betting scoring (like totals, 1st inning or game) you're ignoring 1/2 the equation if you don't consider the hitting team. I might lay 170 if I had some trends on first 5 batting order,history vs pitcher/site,day/night,and recent trending.If it's real money,it's real serious.gl.

[TheGame]

Re: This is the problem with this game...

Thats an insightful stat that Game has everyday but when betting scoring (like totals, 1st inning or game) you're ignoring 1/2 the equation if you don't consider the hitting team. I might lay 170 if I had some trends on first 5 batting order,history vs pitcher/site,day/night,and recent trending.If it's real money,it's real serious.gl.

Another thing you have to look at. Some pitchers that you perceive as good can be famous for giving up first inning runs.
Tom Glavine would look horrible in the first inning. Then toss a 2 hitter over the next 7 innings.

[UncleMyu]

Re: This is the problem with this game...

Thats an insightful stat that Game has everyday but when betting scoring (like totals, 1st inning or game) you're ignoring 1/2 the equation if you don't consider the hitting team. I might lay 170 if I had some trends on first 5 batting order,history vs pitcher/site,day/night,and recent trending.If it's real money,it's real serious.gl.

I do consider the opposing team. Therein lies the gamble. Rarely will you get 2 fire pitchers against two hitting squads in a slump. So you gotta hope for the best with the given numbers.

[UncleMyu]

Re: This is the problem with this game...

Another thing you have to look at. Some pitchers that you perceive as good can be famous for giving up first inning runs.
Tom Glavine would look horrible in the first inning. Then toss a 2 hitter over the next 7 innings.

Agreed. That's one of the reasons I appreciate this thread so much. I can check numbers and find out who is giving up the first inning runs. I'd say that about 4/5 times the numbers hold. Unfortunately, I have a tendency to bet 2 or 3 no scores and one will include the statistical anomaly. But such is the game. Shout out to tinfoils on covers.com for his contribution.