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**TheGame** · 07-09-2014, 06:15 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

LA Angels at Texas

Ron Kulpa

17

6-11

8.12

293

190

103

64.9

17.5

5.9

2.94

1.94

8-9

Current streak = 4-0 Road

Last 10 W/ Angels 5-3 / 4-4
Richards N/A

Last 10 W/ Texas 7-2 / 4-4-1
Tepesch 0-1 / 1-0 Under

Trends.
Head to Head

Angels are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Over is 5-0-1 in Richards' last 6 starts vs. Rangers.
Over is 19-6-1 in the last 26 meetings in Texas.
Over is 32-14-5 in the last 51 meetings.
Angels are 1-8 in the last 9 meetings in Texas.

Umpire Trends - Ron Kulpa

Road team is 4-0 in Kulpas last 4 games behind home plate.
Over is 7-1 in Kulpas last 8 Friday games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
Home team is 4-1 in Kulpas last 5 Friday games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
Road team is 4-1 in Kulpas last 5 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
Rangers are 7-2 in their last 9 games with Kulpa behind home plate.

**TheGame** · 07-09-2014, 06:15 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

Detroit at Kansas City

Chad Fairchild

5

3-2

9.40

293

188

105

64.3

16.8

6.8

2.47

1.60

2-3

Current streak = None

Last 10 W/ Detroit 6-2 / 5-3 Over
Sanchez 1-2 / 2-1 Over

Last 10 W/ KC 6-3 / 5-4 Under
Duffy N/A

Trends.
Head to Head

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas City.
Tigers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas City.
Under is 5-1 in Sanchezs last 6 starts vs. Royals.
Under is 4-1 in Duffys last 5 home starts vs. Tigers.
Under is 4-1 in Duffys last 5 starts vs. Tigers.
Tigers are 4-1 in Sanchezs last 5 starts vs. Royals.
Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Tigers are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Royals are 1-4 in Duffys last 5 home starts vs. Tigers.

Umpire Trends - Chad Fairchild

Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 games with Fairchild behind home plate.
Home team is 7-1 in Fairchilds last 8 games behind home plate vs. Detroit.
Under is 4-1-1 in Fairchilds last 6 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
Home team is 4-1 in Fairchilds last 5 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Fairchild behind home plate.
Home team is 23-8 in Fairchilds last 31 Friday games behind home plate.
Home team is 5-2 in Fairchilds last 7 games behind home plate.
Under is 7-3-1 in Fairchilds last 11 Friday games behind home plate.

**TheGame** · 07-09-2014, 06:16 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

San Diego at LA Dodgers

Tony Randazzo

7

3-4

6.57

291

183

107

63.1

14.6

5.0

2.91

1.71

0-7

Current streak = 7-0 Under

Last 10 W/ Padres 3-7 / 5-4-1 Under
Hahn N/A

Last 10 W/ Dodgers 2-7 / 4-3-2 Under
Haren 3-0 / 3-0 Under

Trends.

Head to Head

Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
Padres are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.
Padres are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.

Umpire Trends - Tony Randazzo

Under is 7-0 in Randazzos last 7 games behind home plate.
Over is 5-0 in Randazzos last 5 Friday games behind home plate vs. San Diego.
Home team is 11-1 in Randazzos last 12 games behind home plate vs. San Diego.
Over is 13-5 in Randazzos last 18 Friday games behind home plate.
Road team is 15-7 in Randazzos last 22 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
Home team is 19-9 in Randazzos last 28 Friday games behind home plate.
Home team is 57-28 in Randazzos last 85 games behind home plate.
Dodgers are 3-9 in their last 12 games with Randazzo behind home plate.
Padres are 3-9 in their last 12 games with Randazzo behind home plate.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 Friday games with Randazzo behind home plate.

**TheGame** · 07-11-2014, 05:46 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

MLB

National League
Braves-Cubs
Wood is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts.
Arrieta is 4-0, 0.89 in his last six starts.

Braves lost four of their last five games.
Cubs lost six of their last seven games.

Seven of ten Wood starts stayed under the total.

Nationals-Phillies
Zimmerman is 3-2, 1.26 in his last seven starts.
Philly lost last three Burnett starts (0-2, 4.50).

Washington won eight of its last eleven games.
Phillies won their last four games, but lost last four at home.

Six of last seven Zimmerman starts stayed under total.

Pirates-Reds
Pittsburgh won last five Locke starts (2-0, 2.63).
Latos is 2-1, 1.64 in his last three starts.

Pirates lost four of their last five road games.
Cincinnati won five of its last six games.

Four of five Latos starts stayed under total.

Marlins-Mets
Miami won last ten Alvarez starts (3-0, 1.85 in last five).
Wheeler is 1-0, 1.42 in his last couple starts.

Marlins are 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
Mets won four of their last five games.

Five of last six Alvarez road starts went over.

Cardinals-Brewers
Kelly was 1-1, 1.76 in three starts in April, before going on DL.
Gallardo is 2-1, 3.00 in his last six starts.

Cardinals won three of their last four games.
Milwaukee lost nine of its last ten games.

Five of last six Gallardo starts stayed under the total.

Padres-Dodgers
Hahn is 4-1, 1.74 in his last five starts.
Haren is 1-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.

Padres lost five of their last six games.
Dodgers lost three of their last four games.

11 of last 12 San Diego road games stayed under.

Diamondbacks-Giants
Bolsinger is 0-5, 5.34 in his last five starts.
Lincecum is 3-0, 0.39 in his last three starts.

Arizona won three of its last four games.
Giants lost 15 of their last 19 home games.

Ten of last thirteen Arizona games stayed under.

American League
White Sox--Indians
Noesi is 2-2, 5.14 in his last six starts.
Kluber is 2-2, 1.24 in his last four starts.

White Sox won five of last seven on road, but lost last two.
Indians won six of their last nine games.

Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Cleveland home games.

Bronx-Orioles
Kuroda is 2-3, 4.06 in his last six starts.
Gonzalez is 1-2, 4.40 in his last five starts.

Bronx Bombers won six of their last nine road games.
Baltimore won four of its last five games.

Nine of last twelve Bronx road games went over total.

Blue Jays-Rays
Buehrle is 0-5, 3.83 in his last six starts; Toronto scored 13 runs.
Archer is 1-0, 2.35 in his last couple starts.

Blue Jays lost eight of their last nine road games.
Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 15 games.

Four of last five Toronto games stayed under.

Angels-Rangers
Angels won last seven Richards starts (6-0, 1.45).
Tepesch is 1-4, 5.34 in his last six starts.

Angels won nine of their last eleven games.
Rangers lost 11 of their last 12 games.

14 of last 19 Texas road games went over total.

Red Sox-Astros
Lackey is 1-2, 10.93 in his last three starts.
Feldman is 1-0, 3.00 in his last two starts.

Red Sox lost six of last nine games, but won last two.
Astros won last three games, are out of last place in AL West.

Five of last seven Boston road games went over.

Tigers-Royals
Sanchez is 1-1, 7.00 in his last three starts.
Duffy is 3-3, 2.28 in his last seven starts.

Detroit won six of its last eight road games.
Royals lost seven of their last ten home games.

Five of last six Sanchez starts went over the total.

A's-Mariners
Samardzija is 1-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
Hernandez is 7-1, 1.72 in his last eleven starts.

Oakland won seven of its last eight games.
Mariners lost their last three games.

Five of last six Hernandez starts stayed under.

Interleague games
Twins-Rockies
Johnson threw 4.1 shutout innings (106 PT) in his only start May 1.
de la Rosa is 3-0, 5.21 in his last three starts; Rockies scored 28 runs.

Twins won four of their last five road games.
Colorado is 4-9 in last 13 home games, but won last two.

Under is 5-1-1 in last seven games at Coors Field.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Wood 5-10; Arrieta 3-12
-- Zimmerman 1-18; Burnett 6-19
-- Locke 3-7; Latos 0-5
-- Alvarez 5-18 (1 of last 9); Wheeler 6-18
-- Kelly 0-3; Gallardo 6-18 (4 of last 5)
-- Hahn 1-6; Haren 9-18 (6 of last 9)
-- Bolsinger 3-8; Lincecum 6-18

-- Noesi 3-13; Kluber 4-19
-- Kuroda 6-18 (1 of last 8); Gonzalez 4-14
-- Buehrle 4-18; Archer 4-18
-- Lackey 4-18; Feldman 4-15
-- Sanchez 4-15; Duffy 2-12
-- Samardzija 8-18; Hernandez 2-19
-- Richards 4-18; Tepesch 3-9

-- Johnson 0-1; de la Rosa 6-18

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Wood 4-6; Arrieta 8-4
-- Zimmerman 11-7; Burnett 9-10 (0-3 last 3)
-- Locke 5-2 (5-0 last 5); Latos 2-3
-- Alvarez 13-5 (won last 10); Wheeler 7-11
-- Kelly 1-2; Gallardo 9-9 (0-3 last 3)
-- Hahn 4-2; Haren 10-8
-- Bolsinger 1-7; Lincecum 11-7

-- Noesi 6-7 (1-4 last 5); Kluber 11-8
-- Kuroda 8-10 (3-1 last 4); Gonzalez 6-8
-- Buehrle 12-6 (1-5 last 6); Archer 9-9
-- Lackey 10-8; Feldman 6-9
-- Sanchez 8-7 (4-1 last 5); Duffy 5-7
-- Samardzija (Chi 3-14/A's 1-0); Hernandez 13-6
-- Richards 14-4 (won last 7); Tepesch 4-5

-- Johnson 0-1; de la Rosa 11-6

**TheGame** · 07-11-2014, 06:51 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

NL Pitchers Report

ALEX WOOD vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.
JAKE ARRIETA vs. ATLANTA since 1997
ARRIETA is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JORDAN ZIMMERMANN vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
ZIMMERMANN is 5-5 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.48 and a WHIP of 1.337.
His team's record is 5-6 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.2 units)
A.J. BURNETT vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
BURNETT is 9-4 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.190.
His team's record is 10-8 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-11. (-5.3 units)

JEFF LOCKE vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
LOCKE is 2-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.247.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.5 units)
MAT LATOS vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
LATOS is 5-1 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.194.
His team's record is 8-3 (+3.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-7. (-4.1 units)

HENDERSON ALVAREZ vs. NY METS since 1997
ALVAREZ is 4-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.21 and a WHIP of 1.082.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.3 units)
ZACK WHEELER vs. MIAMI since 1997
WHEELER is 1-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 0.96 and a WHIP of 0.857.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-3. (-3.1 units)

JOE KELLY vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
KELLY is 1-4 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.366.
His team's record is 2-4 (-3.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)
YOVANI GALLARDO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GALLARDO is 1-12 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 6.38 and a WHIP of 1.466.
His team's record is 4-15 (-13.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-12. (-8.4 units)

JESSE HAHN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.
DAN HAREN vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
HAREN is 6-4 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.191.
His team's record is 10-7 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-6. (+3.6 units)

MIKE BOLSINGER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
BOLSINGER is 0-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.17 and a WHIP of 0.782.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
TIM LINCECUM vs. ARIZONA since 1997
LINCECUM is 8-10 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.212.
His team's record is 12-14 (-6.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-14. (-4.0 units)

**TheGame** · 07-11-2014, 06:56 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

AL Pitchers Report.

HECTOR NOESI vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
NOESI is 0-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 1.32 and a WHIP of 0.952.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
COREY KLUBER vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
KLUBER is 2-1 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.008.
His team's record is 3-3 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.5 units)

HIROKI KURODA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
KURODA is 3-3 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 0.933.
His team's record is 5-4 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-0. (+8.0 units)
MIGUEL GONZALEZ vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GONZALEZ is 2-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.132.
His team's record is 4-5 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-3. (+2.7 units)

MARK BUEHRLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
BUEHRLE is 8-6 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 4.30 and a WHIP of 1.297.
His team's record is 13-7 (+6.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-10. (-0.4 units)
CHRIS ARCHER vs. TORONTO since 1997
ARCHER is 2-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 2.22 and a WHIP of 1.165.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.9 units)

GARRETT RICHARDS vs. TEXAS since 1997
RICHARDS is 3-1 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.377.
His team's record is 3-5 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-1. (+5.1 units)
NICK TEPESCH vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
TEPESCH is 0-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 5.41 and a WHIP of 1.502.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.1 units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. HOUSTON since 1997
LACKEY is 1-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.740.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.8 units)
SCOTT FELDMAN vs. BOSTON since 1997
FELDMAN is 1-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 8.18 and a WHIP of 2.045.
His team's record is 2-3 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
SANCHEZ is 4-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 1.04 and a WHIP of 0.969.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.7 units)
DANNY DUFFY vs. DETROIT since 1997
DUFFY is 1-5 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.159.
His team's record is 3-5 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.6 units)

JEFF SAMARDZIJA vs. SEATTLE since 1997
SAMARDZIJA is 0-0 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 1.286.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
FELIX HERNANDEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 17-7 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.64 and a WHIP of 1.129.
His team's record is 22-10 (+9.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 14-17. (-3.3 units)

**TheGame** · 07-11-2014, 06:57 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

IL Pitchers Report.

KRIS JOHNSON vs. COLORADO since 1997
No recent starts.
JORGE DE LA ROSA vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
DE LA ROSA is 1-4 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 5.04 and a WHIP of 1.760.
His team's record is 1-4 (-2.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-0. (+5.0 units)

**TheGame** · 07-11-2014, 07:49 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

MLB

Friday, July 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHI CUBS
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Chi Cubs are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against Atlanta

7:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Cleveland is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

7:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games on the road
Washington is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:10 PM
MIAMI vs. NY METS
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 9 games at home

7:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

7:10 PM
TORONTO vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Toronto is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Toronto
Tampa Bay is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

8:05 PM
LA ANGELS vs. TEXAS
LA Angels are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games at home

8:10 PM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

8:10 PM
BOSTON vs. HOUSTON
Boston is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games on the road
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

8:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis's last 11 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
Milwaukee is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing St. Louis

8:40 PM
MINNESOTA vs. COLORADO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Colorado is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 8 games

10:10 PM
OAKLAND vs. SEATTLE
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Oakland

10:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. LA DODGERS
San Diego is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
San Diego is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games
LA Dodgers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home

10:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Arizona

**TheGame** · 07-11-2014, 08:58 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs, 4:05 ET
Wood: ATLANTA 25-8 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog
Arrieta: CHICAGO CUBS 48-75 in day games

Washington at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Zimmermann: WASHINGTON 8-18 on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5
Burnett: 8-0 TSR as a home underdog of +125 to +150

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Locke: PITTSBURGH 20-28 against division opponents
Latos: CINCINNATI 35-23 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125

Miami at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Alvarez: 13-5 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125
Wheeler: NY METS 4-27 after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games

St Louis at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
Kelly: ST LOUIS 32-25 as an underdog of +100 to +150
Gallardo: MILWAUKEE 34-42 at home with a money line of -100 to -150

San Diego at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Hahn: SAN DIEGO 34-25 after 3 or more consecutive losses
Haren: 26-34 TSR after a win

Arizona at San Francisco, 10:15 ET
Bolsinger: ARIZONA 3-13 after having won 3 of their last 4 games
Lincecum: SAN FRANCISCO 17-8 OVER in home games after scoring 1 run or less

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Noesi: CHI WHITE SOX 54-90 after a loss
Kluber: CLEVELAND 27-16 revenging a one run loss to opponent

New York Yankees at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Kuroda: 9-19 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125
Jimenez: BALTIMORE 34-18 when playing with a day off

Toronto at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Buehrle: 17-9 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5
Archer: TAMPA BAY 21-30 after a loss

LA Angels at Texas Rangers, 8:05 ET
Richards: 12-1 TSR as a favorite
Tepesch: TEXAS is 1-11 as a home underdog

Boston at Houston, 8:10 ET
Lackey: 22-9 UNDER as a favorite
Feldman: 20-6 UNDER against AL East opponents

Detroit at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Sanchez: DETROIT 18-8 in road games after a win
Duffy: KANSAS CITY 2-8 in home games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite

Oakland at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Samardzija: OAKLAND 23-9 after having won 3 of their last 4 games
Hernandez: 3-9 TSR in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses

Minnesota at Colorado, 8:40ET
Johnson: MINNESOTA 16-37 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
De La Rosa: 10-1 TSR at home with a money line of -100 to -150

**UncleMyu** · 07-11-2014, 11:09 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

No score in first innings:

SEA/OAK
WAS/PHI (iffy.... The Phillies surprise me.)
NYM/MIA

**TheGame** · 07-11-2014, 04:20 PM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

MLB Weekend Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

Amazing Arrieta

Jake Arrieta has had an amazing 2014 for the Chicago Cubs and will be looking to build on his 5-1 record when he takes the ball Friday against the Atlanta Braves (-107, 7). The Under is 6-2-2 in Arrieta's last ten starts this season as the Cubs ace has kept a low ERA that is currently at 1.78 for 2014.

Bryce's Blues

Nationals slugger Bryce Harper has had more than his share of struggles as of late, going 1-for-20 in his last six appearances for Washington. The Nationals are 3-3 over that span while the total has been split evenly as well over that six game span.

Strasburg Struggles

Washington's other young star, Stephen Strasburg has also been struggling this summer for the Nationals. Strasburg is 1-2 with two No Decisions in his last five starts with the Over going 3-1-1 over that span as high scoring affairs seem to have followed Strasburg this season.

Pitching Notes

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Drew Hutchinson has been compiling a high number of Unders in his recent starts. Five of his last six starts have went under the number, including his last three mound appearances. Hutchinson takes the mound Saturday in a pitchers due with David Price, another pitcher who has been trending towards the Under of late. Six of Price's last eight appearances have been Unders.

The Mets Saturday starter Daisuke Matsuzaka has been brewing a bit of a comeback season on the mound that has been overshadowed by a lack of run support. Unders are 5-1 in his last six starts while the Mets are 1-5 during those games.

Detroit Tigers Sunday starting pitcher Justin Verlander has turned around a 1-5 streak on the mound with two wins following two No Decisions, but his extremely high ERA has continued to produces a nice trend of Overs. 9-1 in Verlander's last ten starts to be exact as the former best pitcher in the game continues his struggles.

Hitting Notes

Colorado still leads the MLB in batting at home, hitting .313 at Coors Field. They will see a boost to that talented lineup when Carlos Gonzalez returns to the lineup after being out since early June when they host the Twins in interleague play.

San Francisco's Hunter Pence is 11-for-24 over his last six games and has raised his batting average to above .300 in the process, batting .303 for the season.

Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong is red hot as of late for St. Louis. Wong has went 6-for-14 with three homers, five runs scored and as many RBIs in his last five games.

Totals Streak

Justin Verlander (14-4 O/U): As mentioned before, Justin Verlander's streak of Overs is as good as it gets when it comes to consistent trends during the 2014 MLB season heading into the All-Star break. Verlander's 14-4 Overs record is even more impressive of late as just one of his last ten starts has went Under.

Prop of the Day

Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs has yet to allow more than two earned runs in his last seven starts, allowing no earned runs in three of those appearances. The Atlanta Braves team total is 3.5 on Friday with the Under set at -120.

Injury Notes

New York Yankees pitcher Mashiro Tanaka will be on the 15 day DL with a partially torn UCL and is set to rehab even longer as there is now a six week timetable on his return. Even more concerning is the potential of Tommy John surgery for the promising Japanese pitcher who was 12-4 in his first season in the majors.

Yankees outfielder Carlos Beltran is also out of the lineup at the moment with a broken nose and a concussion following an injury during batting practice. While on the seven day DL the Yankees have went 3-1, so perhaps his absence is a non factor for now.

Oakland A's outfielder Coco Crisp is questionable on Friday after sitting out on Thursday's game with an ankle injury. Oakland is currently 8-6-2 on the season when Crisp is out of the Athletics lineup.

**TheGame** · 07-11-2014, 04:20 PM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

MLB Midweek Series – Five Key Takeaways
By David Malinsky
Covers.com

It is time to once again put the MLB Weekday series under the microscope, isolating the key edges that can be major bankroll builders for you in the games ahead.

Mariners – (Fernando) Rodney’s “No Respect”

Reading the countless words written about players that were “snubbed” for the All Star game provides annual amusement, as well as some insight into market perceptions. So often many in the sports mediaverse get it wrong – it is meant to be an All Star Game, and not the “Mid-Season Inter-League exhibition between players who have performed the best over the last three months”. As such, there is rarely sympathy with players who have had a great run through the first half of any season, but were not chosen – that is not what the game should be about. Jack Armstrong was the starting pitcher for the National League in 1990, off of an 11-3/2.28 opening stretch. For the rest of his short career it was a 22-46/5.06.

But what happens when a guy gets such little respect that he not only misses out based on the first half of this season, but on the past 2+ campaigns? And is also so far off the radar screens that even those writing about snubs don’t even mention him? There is indeed a Dangerfield-esque aspect to the perceptions of Fernando Rodney right now.

First a confession – analyzing Rodney has never been a favorite past-time, because of the lack of consistency earlier in his career. Perhaps that has numbed others as well. Despite being handed the ball a lot based on his promise and raw stuff, in seven of his first nine seasons he finished with an ERA above league average. Along the way were plenty of high pitch counts due to a lack of control – there are 259 pitchers that have thrown at least 600 IP since he came up in 2002, and his 4.4 BB-per-9 rates #246. But the Tigers gambled and made him the full-time closer in 2009, and it was a tight-rope walk for the ages – he converted a sparkling 37 of 38 saves, despite a 4.40 ERA and a 4.9 BB-per-9, likely accelerating Jim Leyland’s retirement by a couple of years in the process. That led to a nice contract with the Angels, who apparently only saw the saves, and not the sausage-grinding manner in which they came, and it was a dismal failure – over two seasons for them Rodney only converted 17 of 28 save opportunities, with a frightening 63 BB over 100 IP.

Enter the next stage. He was off to Tampa for 2012, and at a time when many would have considered him finished, it was another season for the ages - 48 of 50 saves came home, at a 0.60 allowance. The latter is something we are not likely to see again, with a .220 BABIP and an 89.4 percent LOB% being the sort of thing a pitcher dreams about. But he followed that up with a solid 2013, even with corrections from the Baseball dice, a 3.38 that saw him nail down 37 of 45 saves. That was enough for Seattle to offer $14 million over two years; easy for Rodney to accept.

His opening to the season was more of the same-old/same-old, with plenty of drama – nine of his first 17 games had a PPI of 18.0 or more. But it was that 17th game that has proven to be a turning point. Facing the Rays for the first time since leaving for the Pacific Northwest, he imploded in the 9th, turning what had been a nifty shutout by Hisashi Iwakuma into a 2-1 loss. He retired only two of the seven batters he faced, was tagged for a HR by David DeJesus, and needed Danny Farquhar to come on and leave the bases loaded.

Naturally there were rumblings in Seattle – that loss triggered an 0-4 Mariner slide, and questions arose about whether the investment had been a good one. Rodney did not even take a mound again until five days later. But that time off triggered something. Since then he has worked to a 0.95 tune, converting 15 of 15 saves, with nearly twice as many K (19) as hits (10). Plus an unexpected caveat - he has issued one BB to the last 69 batters he has faced, Jarrod Dyson in the bottom of the 9th in Kansas City back on June 21. Allow that to sink in – Rodney has allowed one BB over a span of 69 batters.

Could even the savviest followers of the sport ever have envisioned him walking one batter over more than a full calendar month? Despite having already turned 37, there is plenty of life left in his arm, but now there is a confidence and swagger in attacking the strike zone to add to it. Since the start of the 2012 season it has been a 1.93 allowance, converting 111 of 123 save opportunities, one of the best stretches for a closer in MLB history. Yet Rodney gets to take a few days off next week, and that rest might be a plus going forward. The Seattle offense is not going to provide many margins, so he is a huge piece to the puzzle if the Mariners are going to gut out enough close games to stay in the pennant race.

Cardinals – Life without Yadier Molina

Molina is simply very, very good. But we may not see him again in 2014. So now it will be time to see if the markets grasp his true value, both in terms of individual game pricing, and the Cardinals in future books.

How good is Molina? He has consistently been the best defensive catcher in the sport, with six consecutive Gold Glove awards. But over time he has become an offensive force as well, and the best way to put that into perspective are his numbers at the plate, compared to the MLB standard for catchers, over the past four seasons -

2011 - .305/.349/.465 MLB .245/.314/.390
2012 - .315/.373/.465 MLB .247/.319/.399
2013 - .319/.359/.477 MLB .245/.310/.388
2014 - .287/.341/.409 MLB .249/.314/.385

Those are most significant production gaps, and it is similar when the defensive measures of the positions are brought into play (there have been 181 steals against the Cardinals since 2011, less than half of the average of 365.1 for the other 29 teams). Yet he may have been even better that that, with the metrics for catchers not fully evolved to properly measure the handling of pitchers. Since 2011, the Cardinals are #6 in ERA, #2 in FIP and #4 in xFIP, and it is not because their pitchers are really at that level. If anything, with so much inconsistency behind Adam Wainwright in the current rotation, that part of Molina’s game could really show.

Now it falls to Tony Cruz, who has shown little when given the chance (.236/.280/.323 over 394 PA’s). Cruz does not bring much power (two HR), and you should be watching extra closely in his first games to see how much opponents attempt to take advantage on the bases (Andrew McCutchen stole on the 3rd pitch after a first inning single last night, and grabbed another in the 3rd). Meanwhile the control issues of Shelby Miller (4 BB vs. 1 K throwing to Cruz on Thursday) and perhaps Joe Kelly (more BB than K in three AAA rehab starts), will also bear watching. The Cardinals could genuinely struggle to get to the finish line this season.

Giants – Without an Angel (Pagan) in the Outfield

And off of the Molina take there is a good transition to this one. The rule of thumb for injuries is simple, but often missed – it is the gap between the value of the player that was lost, and those that are replacing him, and it is in measuring the latter that the markets often come up short. Like in the Pagan instance - who knew that it would play such a big part in the NL West race?

Pagan has been quietly effective since coming to San Francisco. He turned in a .288/.338/.440, with plus defense, in 2012, when the league standard for CF was .264/.328/.414. The consistency carried over to a .282/.334/.414 in 2013, vs. a league .258/.324/.395. But there was an issue – he missed 84 games because of a hamstring injury. The Giants went 32-52 without him, but that got lost in the storylines of several other disappointments. Perhaps also because while Pagan is a player that does just about everything well, he does not set off the kind of fireworks in any particular category to generate attention.

To begin this season a healthy Pagan was flashing All Star potential - .307/.356/.411 through 63 games. But the injury big struck again, placing him on the DL on June 15. Once again the impact was dramatic – San Francisco has turned in a dismal 7-16, without him, and a prime culprit has been a CF position contributing a minuscule .212/.277/.300, with 23 K vs. only 10 BB. The Giants hope to have Pagan back by the end of July. At 39-67 without him the L2 seasons, it can not happen soon enough.

Brewers – Towards understanding Kyle Lohse

Lohse got tagged with a loss on Wednesday night, something that has been rather rare in recent years. So in response to a query from a reader, it is proper timing to play “One of these things is not like the other”. Try this at a cocktail party. Since the start of the 2011 season, the MLB leaders in W/L percentage are:

Max Scherzer 63-22 (.741)
Zack Greinke 57-20 (.740)
Clayton Kershaw 62-25 (.713)
Jered Weaver 58-27 (.682)
Pitcher X 50-25 (.667)

Give your friends five guesses at the identity of Pitcher X, and if you offer them even money you have by far the best of it. Not many will realize that it is Lohse, and much of that is for good reason. He would not seem at all to be in the company of those four above him, and some of the standard numbers indeed back that up. There are 156 pitchers that have worked at least 300 IP over that span, and his FIP of 3.72 checks in at #50, while the xFIP of 3.96 is #81. You can’t get to 50-25 from there, according to Baseball logic, although his 3.20 ERA at least brings him in at #19.

So when a reader wondered how Lohse kept winning, it became time to break it down. The answer is that he has become the Catfish Hunter of his generation.

The usual standard is that a Major League pitcher needs either strikeouts, ground-balls, or excellent control in order to survive, usually requiring two of the three in order to be good. But there can be the rarity of a pitcher than genuinely succeeds through fly-balls, and Jered Weaver and Chris Young have already been talked about this season in that regard. What Lohse has done in re-inventing his career is become Hunter, a guy that rarely blew the ball past hitters, but worked high corners of the strike zone to get plenty of fly-ball outs to the power alleys (he even managed to go 21-5/3.34 in 1973 despite allowing 39 HR, a truly nifty dance). The modern metrics struggle with that style – Hunter had a stretch in which his ERA was below FIP in 11 of 12 seasons. He won consistently, but his model is rare.

That is where Lohse is right now. And “right now” is important. He appeared to be near the end of the line several years ago, off of a 6-10/4.74 in 2009 and 4-8/6.55 in 2010. But while injuries impacted his performances in those seasons, they also brought the silver lining of saving some innings from his arm (the Beckett/Lackey sub-category that has been written about here earlier).

Since then he has posted that 50-25, and his ERA has been at least a half run below xFIP in each of those seasons. He wins by throwing strikes (his BB-per-9 since 2011 is #8), and manages to get more fly-ball outs than the metrics want to allow as being healthy. His HR/FB rate has been steadily below average through that span, and that in turn contributes to his BABIP counts of .269, .262, .276 and .266 through the run. Fly-balls find gloves more often than ground-balls do. The downside is that they also can find the seats, but Lohse has had the command to work around that.

How long can he keep it up? If the Brewers make the playoffs, Lohse may be pitching on the night of his 36th birthday (October 4). But even in losing to the Phillies on Wednesday he did not issue a BB of the 31 batters he faced, working to a 13.4 PPI. His other peripherals make him appear as a major over-achiever, but they do not tell the full story. As long as he keeps commanding the strike zone at the current rate, he will continue to perform above market expectations, albeit something less than winning two out of every three decisions.

Diamondbacks – Wade Miley hangs tough

There has been precious little to like from the Diamondbacks so far, a 35-54 in the standings that has looked like a 39-54 on the field. Fundamentals are lacking across the board, and a defense that is last in the NL in both PADE and BABIP allowed has made it most difficult on the pitching staff. Miley has been one of those that has suffered, with his 16-11/3.33 of 2012 and 10-10/3.55 of 2013 falling off to the current 4-6/4.43. But the truth is that he may not have declined at all in terms of the quality of pitches he is throwing, and while there might have been a question of his mental state a week ago, there may have been something from his last start in Atlanta on Sunday that bears watching going forward (no, it was not from the midweek games, but since he does not start again until Saturday it was a good topic to hold back until now).

Miley has been much better than his bottom line. His K-per-9 are up to 8.6, dramatically above the 6.4 standard he had set prior to the season. At 2.6 BB-per-9 he ends up with a K-to-BB ratio that puts him in good company. Combine those K counts with 48.7 percent ground-balls (#27 among qualified pitchers), and there is a formula for success (which xFIP recognizes, at a 3.26 that is #26 of all pitchers this season). There just has not been much. He is only being backed by 3.8 RPG; there is that matter of the awful defense; while a struggling bullpen (14 losses, 12 blown saves) has literally not provided much relief. And it all could have come crashing down against the Braves in his last start.

In the game prior to that, Smiley sported some of his best stuff of the season, carrying a shutout into the bottom of the 9th at Pittsburgh, with only two hits allowed, to go with 10 K and no BB. Kirk Gibson decided to let him go for the shutout (why not, with that bullpen?), but after Neil Walker and Gregory Polanco singled to open the frame, the call went to Addison Reed. Reed set the kindling of those runners ablaze, walking away 11 pitches later to sounds of Pirate fans cheering a 3-2 win.

That bitter defeat made it nine consecutive starts by Miley without a win, despite the fact that he worked to a 4.39 in that span that was not all that bad. And it was the kind of moment that could have sent his confidence spiraling into an abyss. Instead, he rebounded to dominate the Braves, allowing only one run over 6 2/3 IP, with eight K and only one BB. It was a sign of poise at a time when one could have questioned his mettle, and the kind of performance that could lead to some follow-up value over the next cycle. His base stats in the pitching forms, and the decimal Arizona showing in the standings, will not have many getting in line, which is when the savvy handicapper can relish the relative solitude.

**UncleMyu** · 07-11-2014, 06:27 PM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

2/3 so far on no score first innings.

**UncleMyu** · 07-11-2014, 06:34 PM

Re: In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

Now waiting on SEA/OAK

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In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

In The Dugout for Friday 7/11

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