Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

opening day system

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Page of 1
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
Previous template Next
  • #1

    opening day system

    season opener

    not sunday

    favorite

    1-10 more wins last season than 2 seasons ago

    not 79-84 wins previous season **

    ** fails a bit teams close to .500 previous year ..coincidence maybe


    55-11 (-156)

    18-2 last 3 applicable years applicable

    * guessing no 2021 or 22 because of shortened covid season


    https://killersports.com/mlb/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    going to skip mil as it's close to pick..very small favorites this year relative to sample avg


    atl -125
    min - 120


    3 team parlay with expanded system..all around 180 favorites

    bal/det/sea
    about +270 (half unit)

    Last edited by bleeker; 03-27-2024, 05:53 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    I would not play these as <=110 favs ..also possible mil will creep into range ..leave it up to your judgement with the lines ..not going to update.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #3
      oppose dog in lefty vs lefty opening day ... avg win 6.7-2.3
      game number = 1 and line > 100 and o:PRSW<104 and o:STL and STL
      0-15 (-4.33, 0.0%) avg line: 151.7 / -171.3 on / against: -$1,500 / +$1,500 ROI: -100.0% / 58.4%
      2-9-0 (-1.77, 18.2%) avg line: -130.6 / 113.5 on / against: -$1,001 / +$888 ROI: -68.0% / 75.3%
      8-6-1 (1.23, 57.1%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: +$135 / -$285 ROI: 8.2% / -17.4%
      2.33 2.67 7.80 6.73 2.27 0.67 1.53 0.60 0.27 13.60 6.47 0.80 3.73 4.73
      6.67 4.40 7.33 9.87 2.93 1.13 2.87 1.73 6.67 15.47 7.40 0.60 1.67 4.60
      Mar 28, 2024 recap Thu 2024 away Yankees Nestor Cortes-L Astros Framber Valdez-L 125.0 8.5
      Mar 28, 2024 recap Thu 2024 home White Sox Garrett Crochet-L Tigers Tarik Skubal-L 150.0 8.0
      Last edited by rolltide; 03-26-2024, 08:31 PM.

      Comment

      • #4
        champs haven't been great in game 1 vs a team that wasn't bad last year

        tpS(playoffs=1 and W and league!=o:league,N=1)=1 and game number=1 and o:PRSW>78 and season>2006

        1-10 (-2.55, 9.1%) avg line: -118.3 / 105.5 on / against: -$1,203 / +$1,103 ROI: -85.4% / 87.7%
        2-8-0 (-2.80, 20.0%) avg line: -114.0 / -102.5 on / against: -$761 / +$726 ROI: -57.0% / 56.1%
        3-6-1 (0.20, 33.3%) avg total: 7.5 over / under: -$395 / +$275 ROI: -35.1% / 25.9%
        2.45 2.27 7.45 7.00 1.64 0.73 1.64 0.64 1.36 12.91 6.36 0.55 2.64 3.82
        5.00 3.36 8.36 9.09 2.55 1.09 2.73 1.36 4.64 14.82 7.64 1.18 1.36 3.55
        Mar 28, 2024 recap Thu 2024 home Rangers Nathan Eovaldi-R Cubs Justin Steele-L -115.0 8.0

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
          season opener

          not sunday

          favorite

          1-10 more wins last season than 2 seasons ago

          not 79-84 wins previous season **

          ** fails a bit teams close to .500 previous year ..coincidence maybe


          55-11 (-156)

          18-2 last 3 applicable years applicable

          * guessing no 2021 or 22 because of shortened covid season


          https://killersports.com/mlb/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

          going to skip mil as it's close to pick..very small favorites this year relative to sample avg


          atl -125
          min - 120



          it does real well in the 115-140 range..might expect that to be worse

          20-3 (-130)


          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            have found a revision of it that adds a nice chunk of games to the sample and plays tomorrow..of course it doesn't hit at a 55-11 rate .. 3 additions are all around 180 lays and may put them in a half unit (about right) parlay ..report back tonight
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by bleeker View Post
              have found a revision of it that adds a nice chunk of games to the sample and plays tomorrow..of course it doesn't hit at a 55-11 rate .. 3 additions are all around 180 lays and may put them in a half unit (about right) parlay ..report back tonight
              added to post 1
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #8
                23-6 +143% = MIN (small fav much stronger last year than 2 years ago)
                15-0 +158% = HOU, DET (fav lefty vs lefty opening day)
                25-1 +156% = MIA, CIN (125+ fav didn't win 96+ but were better LY than year before)
                43-7 +136% = BAL, HOU, TBR (126+ fav great team LY and at least 5 wins better than opponent)
                10-1 +188% = CHC (against WS champs vs team that won 79+ games)

                Comment

                • #9
                  game number = 1 and 5 < spS(playoffs=1 and o:SIP,N=1) < 9 and starter throws = L and site = home and line <= -120


                  if my interpretation of this is wrong let me know


                  opening day

                  home

                  favorite > =120

                  starter last start was the playoffs and his opp in "that game" pitched > 5 but less than a full game


                  starter lefty

                  12-1 (3.85)

                  only loss by a run

                  righty record (2 games today) also good but not enough for a play .. that's why link breaks it down

                  since I'm not 100% sure my interpretation is correct not making these plays ..the system plays for lefties are hou and sea..it also does well with the RL (lefties)


                  https://killersports.com/mlb/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                  Last edited by bleeker; 03-28-2024, 08:34 AM.
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Good Stuff

                    BOL This year!

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Bigtiger View Post
                      Good Stuff

                      BOL This year!
                      thanks bigtiger !
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        nym are tough in season/home openers as favorites..only time they surrendered > 2 runs was the covid season (july opener)..other 5 avg giving up 1 run/gm ..mil on the fringes of a system play but odds a little low .. I'd take the Mets today


                        https://killersports.com/mlb/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          atl
                          season openers away
                          range +160/-200
                          since 2007

                          0-9 o/u (-4.38)

                          ridiculously low scoring games especially factoring extra inning games


                          https://killersports.com/mlb/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++




                          atl under 7
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment

                          • #14

                            Comment

                            Previous template Next
                            Working...
                            X