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  • #1

    7/4 system

    happy 4th everybody !


    7/4 date
    home
    previous multiple run innings =3
    fav <=200 or dog
    opp previous starter inning pitched >=3

    17-1 (-110)


    https://killersports.com/mlb/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



    sd -125
    mil -125

    hou -190 (not playing..out of ml range)
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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  • #2

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    • #3
      pretty simple one

      PLAY ON large home fav on July 4th not playing interleague and starting after 1pm ET and didn't just use 7+ pitchers= on DET, MIA, MIN, LAD
      28-1 (2.79, 96.6%) avg line: -187.1 / 173.0 on / against: +$2,640 / -$2,650 ROI: 48.6% / -91.4%
      17-12-0 (1.29, 58.6%) avg line: 112.3 / -126.5 on / against: +$698 / -$914 ROI: 22.6% / -24.5%
      16-11-2 (1.12, 59.3%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: +$425 / -$675 ROI: 13.6% / -20.9%
      6.24 3.86 5.90 9.93 3.38 1.28 3.28 1.76 6.21 14.21 7.00 1.03 2.10 4.28
      3.45 2.03 8.59 8.79 2.28 1.07 1.90 0.93 1.41 13.72 6.52 0.72 3.79 4.07
      Jul 04, 2023 recap Tue 2023 home Dodgers Emmet Sheehan-R Pirates Luis Ortiz-R -220.0 9.0
      Jul 04, 2023 recap Tue 2023 home Tigers Tarik Skubal-L Athletics JP Sears-L -170.0 8.5
      Jul 04, 2023 recap Tue 2023 home Twins Kenta Maeda-R Royals Zack Greinke-R -200.0 9.0
      Jul 04, 2023 recap Tue 2023 home Marlins Jesus Luzardo-L Cardinals Adam Wainwright-R -170.0 8.5

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      • #4
        if line holds....TOR Bassitt has won 22 straight as road fav when opponent not on 4+ game win streak.

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        • #5
          just so we're clear rolltide..it takes a lot more parameters to get to your numbers
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by bleeker View Post
            just so we're clear rolltide..it takes a lot more parameters to get to your numbers
            not at all

            int(str(date) [4 :]) = 704 and H and C and start time>1307 and line<-147 and season>2013 and p:PU<7
            https://killersports.com/mlb/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by rolltide View Post

              not at all

              int(str(date) [4 :]) = 704 and H and C and start time>1307 and line<-147 and season>2013 and p:PU<7
              https://killersports.com/mlb/query?o...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
              ok ..it's just a starting date going back to the 2014 season
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #8
                Royals are 0-15 in Greinke's last 15 away starts when not in a late night game, Greinke didn't pitch 7+ innings last start, and the Royals didn't get blown out the previous game. They avg just 2 rpg and haven't scored more than 3 in the past 12 situations

                worth noting the Twins are 11-1 in last 12 at home vs KC with 10 wins by 2+ runs.
                0-15 (-4.27, 0.0%) avg line: 165.5 / -194.5 on / against: -$1,505 / +$1,500 ROI: -100.0% / 51.4%
                4-11-0 (-2.77, 26.7%) avg line: -132.0 / 110.7 on / against: -$1,030 / +$865 ROI: -50.7% / 53.6%
                7-7-1 (0.37, 50.0%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$55 / -$80 ROI: -3.4% / -4.8%
                2.13 1.80 9.93 6.20 2.00 0.73 1.60 0.40 1.27 13.00 6.00 0.73 3.53 3.93
                6.40 2.73 6.80 10.20 3.27 1.47 3.13 1.73 6.27 14.20 6.40 0.73 1.47 4.00
                Jul 04, 2023 recap Tue 2023 away Royals Zack Greinke-R Twins Kenta Maeda-R 170.0 9.0
                Last edited by rolltide; 07-04-2023, 12:37 PM.

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                • #9
                  it is amazing that such simple parameters lead you to 28-1 even at the high avg odds (-187) but they do
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                    it is amazing that such simple parameters lead you to 28-1 even at the high avg odds (-187) but they do
                    yes hopefully it holds. is definitely a July 4 anomaly as the rest of the season produces exactly 0.00 ROI

                    H and C and start time>1307 and line<-147 and season>2013 and p:PU<7 and not (int(str(date) [4 :]) = 704)
                    3232-1736 (1.30, 65.1%) avg line: -193.8 / 174.2 on / against: +$156 / -$31,131 ROI: 0.0% / -6.3%

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      it lands on 0.00 (rounded to the hundredth) excluding 7/4 ..unreal
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

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