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Houston...
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thanks dollars..day ended on a bad note with tampa but that one was a comfortable winOriginally posted by dollars View PostHouston..._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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game number = 164 and H and site streak = 1 and p:W and total >7 and po:runs >0
key here is site streak..team had to finish regular season on the road to qualify here along with being home,off a win, total >7 and opp last game wasn't shutout
14-1 (-153) (2.40)
if you eliminate a starter who pitched < 2.1 innings last game it's perfect @ 14-0..database doesn't seem to be up to date on these stats anymore for whatever reason
mil -125 <<<_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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yikes Tampa :(Originally posted by rolltide View Post
another for Brew Crew saturday
20-2 (2.14, 90.9%) avg line: -150.8 / 137.6 on / against: +$1,750 / -$1,800 ROI: +51.8% / -79.5% 14-6 (1.25, 70.0%) avg line: 118.3 / -135.1 on / against: +$1,149 / -$1,310 ROI: +50.1% / -46.2% 8-13-1 (-0.30, 38.1%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$578 / +$400 ROI: -24.7% / +16.0% 5.05 3.43 7.05 8.95 1.57 0.90 2.64 1.27 6.55 15.81 None 0.59 1.67 4.29 2.91 2.62 9.67 7.45 1.05 0.48 1.68 0.91 1.00 13.86 None 0.64 3.00 4.52 Oct 09, 2021 box Sat home Brewers Brandon Woodruff - R Braves Max Fried - L -125 7.5 Comment
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game number =164 and H and p:W and 115>line >-115 and p:runs <12
game 164
home
p: win
p: runs <12
line between the 115's
0-5 o/u (-2.50)
a boatload of unearned runs in this 5 game sample and the lone 1 run margin (lowest) was in the highest total game by far ..realize it could move outside of 115 but I'll keep this regardless
lad/sf under 7.5 <<<_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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oh well..started hot and now dropped 3 in a row..as impressive as the numbers look I only expect ,if anything, a small edge over a large sample..maybe it leads me to some biases that have some value ..maybe not and I'm just back fitting data..I never get too optimistic when things are going well and vice versa when things aren't..try to only play one's that have decent numbers and a lot of mediocre one's i just toss..I definitely respect the opinion some have that this stuff is not of value ..you have to make that decision for yourself_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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game number = 166 and H and SG = 3 and streak =1
wildcard team comes home off a win after losing series opener
3-0 o/u (6.67)
no unearned runs .. small sample so has to be large avg margin .. the outlier side and total numbers are the lone win for these teams..maybe a case could be made that the last 2 would warrant a fade of bos ??
2015..8-6 (7.5) -210
2018 ..1-16 (8.5) -170
2019 ..4-10 (9) +155
bos over 8.5 <<<_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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playoffs = 1 and game number < 168 and H and SG = 3 and -5>wins -o:wins>-9
divisional
game 3
home
6-8 wins less than opponent
0-5 (9.80) nuts !
2018
0-6
1-16
2020
0-7
3-12
3-15
understand last year was covid .. still with those numbers I'll take a shot
fade atl
mil +105 <<<
will be at least 1 more
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( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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two overs today and a side wager with the ChiSox
89-94 (0.23, 48.6%) avg line: -111.0 / -117.6 on / against: -$1,335 / -$180 ROI: -5.9% / -0.8% 121-53-9 (1.96, 69.5%) o/u avg total: 9.3 over / under: +$6,340 / -$7,979 ROI: +31.9% / -39.4% 5.73 4.01 8.23 9.28 1.82 1.52 2.79 1.50 3.82 16.13 None 0.61 3.10 4.58 5.50 3.37 8.66 8.86 1.94 1.41 2.91 1.44 3.67 14.61 None 0.50 3.28 4.74 20-3 (1.91, 87.0%) avg line: -149.5 / 136.5 on / against: +$1,630 / -$1,690 ROI: +46.6% / -71.5% 14-7 (0.98, 66.7%) avg line: 119.7 / -136.7 on / against: +$1,049 / -$1,210 ROI: +43.9% / -39.9% 8-14-1 (-0.48, 36.4%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$678 / +$500 ROI: -27.8% / +19.1% 4.83 3.43 7.05 8.83 1.57 0.90 2.52 1.22 6.00 15.81 None 0.57 1.67 4.29 2.91 2.62 9.67 7.43 1.05 0.48 1.70 0.91 1.50 13.86 None 0.61 3.00 4.52 Oct 11, 2021 box Mon home White Sox Carlos Rodon - L Astros Jose Urquidy - R -125 9 Comment
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specific to div series....
two show up today, Sox and Braves
20-3 (1.91, 87.0%) avg line: -148.3 / 135.4 on / against: +$1,630 / -$1,690 ROI: +46.6% / -71.5% 14-7 (0.98, 66.7%) avg line: 121.7 / -139.0 on / against: +$1,049 / -$1,210 ROI: +43.9% / -39.9% 8-14-1 (-0.48, 36.4%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$678 / +$500 ROI: -27.8% / +19.1% 4.83 3.43 7.05 8.83 1.57 0.90 2.52 1.22 6.00 15.81 None 0.57 1.67 4.29 2.91 2.62 9.67 7.43 1.05 0.48 1.70 0.91 1.50 13.86 None 0.61 3.00 4.52 Comment
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NL home teams 0-7 in game 5 of a 2-2 series and not at least a 185 fav
last two were 7-1 and 13-1 defeats, away team scored at least 3 in all 7 games
0-7 (-4.14, 0.0%) avg line: -100.2 / -112.2 on / against: -$859 / +$815 ROI: -100.0% / +89.5% 1-6 (-3.93, 14.3%) avg line: 117.8 / -137.8 on / against: -$599 / +$570 ROI: -68.9% / +58.0% 5-1-1 (3.29, 83.3%) avg total: 7.1 over / under: +$395 / -$425 ROI: +50.3% / -55.6% 3.14 4.00 10.57 7.57 1.57 1.00 2.00 0.86 2.57 15.71 None 0.71 2.86 6.00 7.29 4.43 9.57 9.57 2.86 1.29 3.14 1.71 5.43 16.43 None 1.00 1.86 4.43 Oct 14, 2021 box Thu home Giants Logan Webb - R Dodgers Julio Urias - L -108 7 Comment
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