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  • #1

    1000+ game sample *** under system

    found this messing around


    away..
    previous game win..
    previous game < 5 runs..
    previous game 0 multiple run innings..
    series game 2 or 3

    418-590-49 o/u (41.5%) or 58.5% unders (1057 games)

    very consistent going back to beginning of database (2004)..even amongst the lean years early on were some of the best years the system ever had... 1-5-1 o/u so far this year


    https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



    any feedback positive or negative welcome
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

    Only 3 losing season, all barely losing. Several big winning seasons. Makes sense....

    Key elements
    1. Off fairly low scoring game with no big innings=offense is not humming
    2. They won that game=The other teams offense was even worse
    3. Same teams meet again=2 struggling offenses

    In my experience running queries, unders come most often following bad offensive games. Usually adding division games makes unders stronger as well. I also like the the higher total games are just as likely to stay under. Many queries I found for unders were not as good with totals of 9 or more. I will definitely add this to my collection. I get that ROI is an important thing to look at when running these things, but when a broad query like this works I like looking at net profit as well. If you remove the Away and make it a win it loses a little ROI but gains quite a bit of profit. I removed the road team factor just to see, because that was the one parameter that made me pause. Why road teams only? Turns out it doesn't need to be, that just is the best winning percentage. I am going to add it to my favorites without the road team designation knowing it is better that way. Doesn't mean it isn't worth looking at when the home team was the winner. After looking at recent success, this is the query I am saving...

    https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    I know it is only 10-10 this season, but only because of a recent runs of overs which will randomly happen during any season. The same way a .300 hitter has 1-16 slumps. I would expect a few unders are "due" soon.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

      Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
      Only 3 losing season, all barely losing. Several big winning seasons. Makes sense....

      Key elements
      1. Off fairly low scoring game with no big innings=offense is not humming
      2. They won that game=The other teams offense was even worse
      3. Same teams meet again=2 struggling offenses

      In my experience running queries, unders come most often following bad offensive games. Usually adding division games makes unders stronger as well. I also like the the higher total games are just as likely to stay under. Many queries I found for unders were not as good with totals of 9 or more. I will definitely add this to my collection. I get that ROI is an important thing to look at when running these things, but when a broad query like this works I like looking at net profit as well. If you remove the Away and make it a win it loses a little ROI but gains quite a bit of profit. I removed the road team factor just to see, because that was the one parameter that made me pause. Why road teams only? Turns out it doesn't need to be, that just is the best winning percentage. I am going to add it to my favorites without the road team designation knowing it is better that way. Doesn't mean it isn't worth looking at when the home team was the winner. After looking at recent success, this is the query I am saving...

      https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      I know it is only 10-10 this season, but only because of a recent runs of overs which will randomly happen during any season. The same way a .300 hitter has 1-16 slumps. I would expect a few unders are "due" soon.

      your logic makes sense as to why it might happen and definitely agree you can ditch the away parameter.. the added volume is worth the lower roi and has a solid record back to the beginning of the database.. great points.. thanks
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

        Originally posted by bleeker View Post
        your logic makes sense as to why it might happen and definitely agree you can ditch the away parameter.. the added volume is worth the lower roi and has a solid record back to the beginning of the database.. great points.. thanks


        the other thing in spite of the slow start this year (possibly the oddball season) it has perfomed much better overall 2017-2019 than prior to those years.. maybe just a short term fluctuation but close to 3% (43-40%) is definitely significant
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
          the other thing in spite of the slow start this year (possibly the oddball season) it has perfomed much better overall 2017-2019 than prior to those years.. maybe just a short term fluctuation but close to 3% (43-40%) is definitely significant

          go the extra mile and look lol...

          39.3 >2016 (60.7% unders)
          43.8 <2016 (56.2% unders)

          so 4.5% not 3%..

          that's a bunch
          Last edited by bleeker; 08-26-2020, 10:05 AM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

            here's without the away restriction going back to beginning

            https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

              Originally posted by bleeker View Post
              here's without the away restriction going back to beginning

              https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
              Yup, that's where I started. Removed the one parameter that doesn't have a logic to it. I need them to make sense lol My opinion on why it is better since 2016...let's call the last 3+ years the beginning of the all or nothing swing era. The huge uptick in home runs and strike outs coincides with that time frame.
              "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

                Also, as I mentioned...with most UNDER performers the past several years using only totals less than 9 is the sweet spot...

                https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

                  Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
                  Also, as I mentioned...with most UNDER performers the past several years using only totals less than 9 is the sweet spot...

                  https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                  yes i wouldn't even play totals over 9 ..really impressive numbers as you said
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

                    Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
                    Also, as I mentioned...with most UNDER performers the past several years using only totals less than 9 is the sweet spot...

                    https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                    Active today Marlins/Tampa
                    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

                      Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
                      Active today Marlins/Tampa


                      didn't know.. thanks jj
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

                        Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
                        Active today Marlins/Tampa

                        winner


                        active today... cle/stl
                        Last edited by bleeker; 08-30-2020, 09:20 AM.
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

                          Re-enforcement for today's under is Wainwright as a home dog. The last game on the list only went over with a disaster bottom of the 9th inning that had 3 runs.

                          https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                          "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

                            Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
                            Re-enforcement for today's under is Wainwright as a home dog. The last game on the list only went over with a disaster bottom of the 9th inning that had 3 runs.

                            https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                            great makes it even better.. was trying to bring up the link but been having trouble getting through last hour or so.. will look when it's fixed
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: 1000+ game sample *** under system

                              Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                              great makes it even better.. was trying to bring up the link but been having trouble getting through last hour or so.. will look when it's fixed

                              OK it just worked
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

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