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Baseball Random Stuff
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
For today...lots of parameters but all make sense as negatives to fade these teams.
Teams are travelling off an extra-inning road loss without a day off for another road series. They are dogs +115 at least and they are facing a lefty. I find many fades are stronger facing lefty starters for whatever reason.. Anyway, these heartbroken teams are 2-18 since April 2007, even better, they are 4-15 against the run-line. That is good because today's play is on a big favorite.
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++"The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
The Twins chip in with their own positive situation to add on to the negative for the Pirates. The Twins are 11-0 as HF of 180 against lefty starters since 2017, 9-2 vs the run-line. The last 2 years Minnesota scores 4.91 runs/game at home against righty starters and 5.62 runs/game vs lefty starters. Use only last years games after they improved by signing Nelson Cruz et al, and they averaged 6.24 runs/game against lefty starters at home.
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++"The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
Originally posted by jumperjack View PostAway favs off a loss they had a lead in...36-3
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++"The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
game number <= 15 and p:SII = 4 and p:runs = 4 and p:L and total > 6.5 and wins >1 and season >2011
SII = scoring innings..
so 1 run/inning is the qualifier..
everything else straight-forward..
0-9 (+108) (-3.44)
fade jays and bucs but wouldn't do the former off the restLast edited by bleeker; 08-04-2020, 10:09 AM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
Originally posted by jumperjack View PostUp again tonight on the Angels
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++"The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
11-0 (-128) (5.00) blowouts and all beat the runline
atl -140 and atl (-1.5) +145_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
Originally posted by jumperjack View Post38-3 now after the Angels win last night
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++"The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
Some people like to check line-ups before they bet, I will drop this in here.
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/daily-lineups.php"The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
When I use the SDQL I try to use common sense thinking and stay away from multiple parameter searches which I think watters down the results, even if it increases the win %. It is no secret that games are staying under more than not this season so far. Overall baseball totals are 90-119-9 O/U. By itself that is a 56.9% winning proposition if you had played every game under. Based on common sense when the home team does not bat, those game are more likely to stay under...less at bats. When is the home team most likely to not bat? Probably when they are favored. Very large favorites are probably more likely to win blowouts, so let's throw those out. The sweet spot I found is HF between -125 and less than -195. Add in one final parameter, only games with totals 8.5 or higher. Using only those games the O/U is 13-37. By using a couple parameters that make more than a little sense I got a 74% win rate playing all those games under. If you had bet this way every day, only 1 day since the season started would you have lost money. 1 day was a split for lost juice.
4 games fit tonight
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++"The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
Originally posted by jumperjack View PostWhen I use the SDQL I try to use common sense thinking and stay away from multiple parameter searches which I think watters down the results, even if it increases the win %. It is no secret that games are staying under more than not this season so far. Overall baseball totals are 90-119-9 O/U. By itself that is a 56.9% winning proposition if you had played every game under. Based on common sense when the home team does not bat, those game are more likely to stay under...less at bats. When is the home team most likely to not bat? Probably when they are favored. Very large favorites are probably more likely to win blowouts, so let's throw those out. The sweet spot I found is HF between -125 and less than -195. Add in one final parameter, only games with totals 8.5 or higher. Using only those games the O/U is 13-37. By using a couple parameters that make more than a little sense I got a 74% win rate playing all those games under. If you had bet this way every day, only 1 day since the season started would you have lost money. 1 day was a split for lost juice.
4 games fit tonight
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
p:R1 + po:R1 > 5 and SG = 4 and H and DIV and line <120 and total >8 and season >2008
7-0 (-157) (4.29)
nym - 130_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
p:errors >3 and po:runs >10 and DIV and SG =1 and total <9.5
0-8 o/u (-3.06)
nyy/bos under 8.5
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( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: Baseball Random Stuff
Originally posted by bleeker View Postp:errors >3 and po:runs >10 and DIV and SG =1 and total <9.5
0-8 o/u (-3.06)
nyy/bos under 8.5
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
My concern today is how big the line is, if you add line>175 to mine you narrow it down to only 4 games....all overs."The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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