Baseball Random Stuff

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

Non-division away favs -140 or more off B2B games scoring 5 runs or more...playing same team they got those runs off. Solid 31-6 and not too much juice on Atlanta today.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

Cubs fit this one very nice ROI for the run-line...

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

.600 division road favorite more than -170 facing lower than .400 team with a 4.00 or higher ERA starter going

[bleeker]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

american league..
division..
previous away favorite >170..
opponents previous runs =1..
series game 3..
total >8

13-1 ou (3.82) big.. no extra innings

fwiw only under was lefty/lefty

cle/kc over 9 again different system




https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

That Dodgers query I posted Sunday is active again...Last games of a series and more than -200 favorites, they hit a HR their last game and they are sending a pitcher with a less than 3.90 ERA to the mound. Only 1 loss in the entire database, 54-1.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Killersports has one of their own posted today on their youtube video and it is very simple, which I love. Dodgers in the last game of a series at home as more than -200 favorites and only 1 other parameter, their opponent has lost at least 2 games in a row. The Dodgers are 34-0 in this situation in database history. What this basically means is the Dodgers have NEVER lost in that time trying to sweep a 3 game home series if they are more than -200.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

If anybody needs more of a reason to back the Dodgers today, this is not team specific...play on teams as -200 or more home favs in the last game of a series when they are coming off a walk off win. This one is 28-0 since 2012, the best part is the run-line ROI is better than the ML ROI. Only 1 other time this season and the Dodgers won 11-3.

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query...=++S+D+Q+L+%21

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

One of the most effective UNDER queries I have saved is active today. Home favorites off a division game that neither team scored more than 2 runs in...only other parameter is it is before the all-star break. Using just those restrictions we have a 76.9% UNDER situation since the beginning of 2018. This season already 1-5-1 O/U.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

If we eliminate games with totals of 9 or higher we are even more effective...6-27-2 O/U (81.8% UNDERS) with the only occurrence this season staying UNDER.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

The above total also fits another situation that has been a solid winner for UNDERS. Day game after a night game with a total less than 9 and the home team is favored. That's it, can't be more simple. Blindly playing these under would return 64.3% UNDERS since Sept 2018. 5-7-1 OU so far this year, so pretty close to the recent results.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Today we have a rare total less than 8 in that game, those are 5-21-1 O/U.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

Another UNDER indicator is active today....games with a home favorite and a total over 10 coming off a game that stayed under by at least 5 runs. No time parameter on this one, which I always like. All-time database this one is 59.6% UNDERS.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

It is even more effective if you remove very large favorites. Make it only HF -170 or less and it is 62.7% UNDERS. I always analyze the WHY when I add a parameter. When you take away large favorites you remove games where 1 team is over-matched. Those game are more likely to be blowouts and higher scoring.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

The line on the Phillies' game is on the way down, I wouldn't wait too long, you can still get U10.5 (-125) @5Dimes

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

Yet one more reason to back the Rangers/Houston UNDER...Lance Lynn off pitching on the road off a quality start is 1-7 O/U. He is 3-11 O/U in all road starts since last May.

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

Road dogs off of a favorite loss in which they never led...in the 1st game of a series with no rest. It is also before game 95 of the season, which insures the opponent hasn't lost interest because they are too far out of the pennant race. Let's examine this before I tell you the results.

1. Lost to a team they were favored against and never led=a disappointing loss that ended that series. Playing a whole game from behind can be emotionally draining as well
2. They are dogs today=playing a better team than they just lost to
3. no rest=no recovery time from that loss and they traveled to get here with no day off

Going back to 2017 these teams are 1-28. The team that it applies to today also happens to suck on the road against lefties. They just happened to be shutout by a lefty starter yesterday and face one tonight. The Padres are 2-10 as RD vs lefty starters avg just 2.75 runs/game. The Padres are 4-19 in all games on the road against lefty starters. Both links below...

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

This one took its 1st loss of the season last time, still a very strong 30-10 the last 5 years. Home favs off a walk off win they came from behind in.

1. 1st game of the series at home so the opponent had to travel, while they are playing at home again.
2. Walk off win is an emotional high which can carry over.
3. They are favored to win=not an opponent they should be over-matched against
4. No day off=the emotional high is still fresh

Play the Mets

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

2 more parameters which only make it better. The opponent has no rest=obvious No rest & Travel not good
The opponent is on a winning streak=This parameter insures the public will have interest in betting on them.
ROI for both ML and RL now over 40%
Also Arrieta looked lost his last start and has not been good all season.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

Big home favorites (-200 or more) are 29-0 in the last game of a series off a walk off win. Run-line ROI even better than the ML return.

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query...=++S+D+Q+L+%21

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

Big division road favorites (more than -170) off B2B wins over this same team are 41-4 against a pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 or higher

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

Big home favorites (-200 or more) are 29-0 in the last game of a series off a walk off win. Run-line ROI even better than the ML return.

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query...=++S+D+Q+L+%21

Now 30-0

[jumperjack]

Re: Baseball Random Stuff

Big division road favorites (more than -170) off B2B wins over this same team are 41-4 against a pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 or higher

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

42-4