Let the home plate umpire be your guide when wagering on baseball
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
On April 10, 2016 at the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park, southpaw Scott Kazmir of the Los Angeles Dodgers and World Series champion Johnny Cueto of the San Francisco Giants took the mound for their respective clubs in an N.L. West blood feud that featured an over/under of 7.5 runs.
The 32-year-old Kazmir, who had posted an incendiary 2.38 ERA in 18 starts with the Oakland Athletics last summer before being shipped to Houston at the trade deadline, entered his April 10 showdown against Cueto with a 1-0 record thanks to a 3-0 victory in San Diego just five days prior in which the lefty blanked the Padres for six innings while surrendering only one hit.
Cueto, who signed a six-year, $130 million deal with San Francisco last December, also entered that April 10 matchup with a 1-0 record due to a brilliant Orange & Black debut in Milwaukee in which he limited the Brewers to just one run on six hits over seven solid innings of work en route to a 2-1 victory.
So the stage has been set: Two talented and accomplished starting pitchers taking the mound on a Sunday afternoon in a ballpark that allowed fewer home runs than any other venue in baseball last season with a Las Vegas over/under of 7.5. This sort of feels like a game in which we might lean to the under, doesn’t it?
Hopefully all of you passed on that instinct because over bettors were celebrating a win after just three innings of baseball in which Kazmir and Cueto both allowed five runs to cross home plate in what eventually became a wild 9-6 victory for the Giants.
So how exactly did two of the game’s more accomplished starting pitchers find themselves so bruised and battered in the box score so quickly while playing at AT&T Park?
There are several reasons, actually, for what went down on April 10 ranging from Cueto’s potential nerves in his home debut for the Giants to Kazmir’s issues with consistency to two talented and highly productive lineups.
But the one reason that tends to slip between the cracks when trying to explain an anomaly game such as this one has to do with the man in the mask behind home plate.
Yes, I’m talking about the umpire.
When betting on baseball, whether it be the side, run line or total, it is essential to research and evaluate the man tasked with differentiating balls and strikes. On April 10 in San Francisco, that man was Alan Porter, who was behind the plate for 29 games during the 2015 Major League Baseball season. And in those 29 games, the over went 15-11-3 with an average of 8.79 runs scored per contest. But for those of you who are willing to go the extra mile, your research would have indicated that in games featuring an over/under of exactly 7.5 runs during the 2015 season with Porter behind the plate, the over went 6-3.
So far during the 2016 campaign, the over is 9-5 with an average of 9.86 total runs scored per game with Porter behind the plate.
This isn’t to suggest that Porter’s presence on April 10 was the sole reason the over hit in such immediate fashion, but it does help to partially explain why a matchup between Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir at AT&T Park could go from being viewed as a pitcher’s duel to a shootout in such a short span of time. More importantly, however, it helps to reinforce the point of how essential it is to study the umpire assignments before placing each and every MLB bet you consider.
Entering Saturday’s slate of action, with the 2016 MLB regular season approximately 46% complete, here’s a breakdown of some key umpire date that will prove useful in your baseball handicapping:
TOP FIVE OVER UMPIRES
Brian Gorman: 7-2 (.778), 9.8 runs per game
Jerry Meals: 10-3 (.769), 10.7 runs per game
Bill Welke: 10-3 (.769), 9.4 runs per game
Bill Miller: 12-4 (.750), 9.3 runs per game
Jerry Layne: 8-3 (.727), 9.3 runs per game
TOP FIVE UNDER UMPIRES
Eric Cooper: 9-2 (.818), 5.9 runs per game
Mark Ripperger: 11-3 (.786), 5.6 runs per game
Todd Tichenor: 10-3 (.769), 6.0 runs per game
D.J. Reyburn: 8-3 (.727), 5.7 runs per game
Larry Vanover: 8-3 (.727), 7.9 runs per game
TOP FIVE HOME UMPIRES
Bill Welke: 11-2 (.846), 9.4 runs per game
Clint Fagan: 10-2 (.833), 11.7 runs per game
Fieldin Culbreth: 10-3 (.769), 8.8 runs per game
Ted Barrett: 12-4 (.750), 10.1 runs per game
Bill Miller: 12-4 (.750), 9.3 runs per game
TOP FIVE ROAD UMPIRES
Adam Hamari: 11-2 (.846), 9.0 runs per game
Tom Hallion: 10-3 (.769), 7.9 runs per game
Jim Reynolds: 10-3 (.769), 9.1 runs per game
Ryan Blakney: 10-4 (.714), 9.1 runs per game
Andy Fletcher: 9-5 (.642), 9.1 runs per game
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
On April 10, 2016 at the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park, southpaw Scott Kazmir of the Los Angeles Dodgers and World Series champion Johnny Cueto of the San Francisco Giants took the mound for their respective clubs in an N.L. West blood feud that featured an over/under of 7.5 runs.
The 32-year-old Kazmir, who had posted an incendiary 2.38 ERA in 18 starts with the Oakland Athletics last summer before being shipped to Houston at the trade deadline, entered his April 10 showdown against Cueto with a 1-0 record thanks to a 3-0 victory in San Diego just five days prior in which the lefty blanked the Padres for six innings while surrendering only one hit.
Cueto, who signed a six-year, $130 million deal with San Francisco last December, also entered that April 10 matchup with a 1-0 record due to a brilliant Orange & Black debut in Milwaukee in which he limited the Brewers to just one run on six hits over seven solid innings of work en route to a 2-1 victory.
So the stage has been set: Two talented and accomplished starting pitchers taking the mound on a Sunday afternoon in a ballpark that allowed fewer home runs than any other venue in baseball last season with a Las Vegas over/under of 7.5. This sort of feels like a game in which we might lean to the under, doesn’t it?
Hopefully all of you passed on that instinct because over bettors were celebrating a win after just three innings of baseball in which Kazmir and Cueto both allowed five runs to cross home plate in what eventually became a wild 9-6 victory for the Giants.
So how exactly did two of the game’s more accomplished starting pitchers find themselves so bruised and battered in the box score so quickly while playing at AT&T Park?
There are several reasons, actually, for what went down on April 10 ranging from Cueto’s potential nerves in his home debut for the Giants to Kazmir’s issues with consistency to two talented and highly productive lineups.
But the one reason that tends to slip between the cracks when trying to explain an anomaly game such as this one has to do with the man in the mask behind home plate.
Yes, I’m talking about the umpire.
When betting on baseball, whether it be the side, run line or total, it is essential to research and evaluate the man tasked with differentiating balls and strikes. On April 10 in San Francisco, that man was Alan Porter, who was behind the plate for 29 games during the 2015 Major League Baseball season. And in those 29 games, the over went 15-11-3 with an average of 8.79 runs scored per contest. But for those of you who are willing to go the extra mile, your research would have indicated that in games featuring an over/under of exactly 7.5 runs during the 2015 season with Porter behind the plate, the over went 6-3.
So far during the 2016 campaign, the over is 9-5 with an average of 9.86 total runs scored per game with Porter behind the plate.
This isn’t to suggest that Porter’s presence on April 10 was the sole reason the over hit in such immediate fashion, but it does help to partially explain why a matchup between Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir at AT&T Park could go from being viewed as a pitcher’s duel to a shootout in such a short span of time. More importantly, however, it helps to reinforce the point of how essential it is to study the umpire assignments before placing each and every MLB bet you consider.
Entering Saturday’s slate of action, with the 2016 MLB regular season approximately 46% complete, here’s a breakdown of some key umpire date that will prove useful in your baseball handicapping:
TOP FIVE OVER UMPIRES
Brian Gorman: 7-2 (.778), 9.8 runs per game
Jerry Meals: 10-3 (.769), 10.7 runs per game
Bill Welke: 10-3 (.769), 9.4 runs per game
Bill Miller: 12-4 (.750), 9.3 runs per game
Jerry Layne: 8-3 (.727), 9.3 runs per game
TOP FIVE UNDER UMPIRES
Eric Cooper: 9-2 (.818), 5.9 runs per game
Mark Ripperger: 11-3 (.786), 5.6 runs per game
Todd Tichenor: 10-3 (.769), 6.0 runs per game
D.J. Reyburn: 8-3 (.727), 5.7 runs per game
Larry Vanover: 8-3 (.727), 7.9 runs per game
TOP FIVE HOME UMPIRES
Bill Welke: 11-2 (.846), 9.4 runs per game
Clint Fagan: 10-2 (.833), 11.7 runs per game
Fieldin Culbreth: 10-3 (.769), 8.8 runs per game
Ted Barrett: 12-4 (.750), 10.1 runs per game
Bill Miller: 12-4 (.750), 9.3 runs per game
TOP FIVE ROAD UMPIRES
Adam Hamari: 11-2 (.846), 9.0 runs per game
Tom Hallion: 10-3 (.769), 7.9 runs per game
Jim Reynolds: 10-3 (.769), 9.1 runs per game
Ryan Blakney: 10-4 (.714), 9.1 runs per game
Andy Fletcher: 9-5 (.642), 9.1 runs per game
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