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MLB OPS Variance Play for Early Thursday 5/7 - Winner!
I was printing up the team OPS for MLB this morning which is a tool I have always used in baseball handicapping once the sample size is large enough. When comparing a team's combined OPS facing lefthanders to it's OPS facing righthanders you come up with something I call the "OPS Variance". Certain teams inevitably do better facing pitchers from one side or the other because of strengths or weaknesses in their line-ups. I noticed that one of today's early games has a lefty vs. lefty match-up and also pits one of the worst teams in MLB, the White Sox, who own a -.169 lefty vs. righty OPS variance. Their team OPS facing lefthanders is a shockingly low .523 (29th in MLB), while their team OPS facing righthanded pitching is .692 (24th in MLB). Their opponent the Tigers have a MLB 4th best team OPS of .779 against lefthanded pitching. In today's Lobstein vs. Quintana lefty vs. lefty match-up I would have to say that Detroit has a HUGE statistical advantage in this match-up. The Tigers are also looking to avoid the series sweep which I think is a positive motivating factor the Tigers have in addition to the listed above statistical advantages. I am making a play based on all this...
$400 Detroit +109 $WINNER$ (+436)
$400 Detroit +109 $WINNER$ (+436)
nice win today JJ
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