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Start with the records: Washington rd record is identical to Sf home record. So with no pitcher or trend or incentives they should be about a pick.
Now lets look at pitchers; Fisters ERA adjusted for ball parks(wash is slightly hitters park) is 2.61
Bumgarners adjusted era is 2.96(sf is a big pitchers park)
my math gives was a 3% pitching advanatage It should be noted that people are factoring Bumgarners last dominate start against the Pirates. The start before that he gave up four earned runs against the Dodgers when SF was trying to win the Division. So we are getting some value going against Bumgarner.
Now trends
Even though Bumgarner's is very good against WAsh(2.60) , SF is 2-5 in games he started against WASh. Sf is negative 16 units the last three years when the Total is less than 7. Wash has a 6-4 record in SF the last three years. Wash is plus 18 units against lefthanders the last three years. I give WASh a 5% advantage for these trends.
Finally Incentive
With there backs against the wall, (no tomorrow) we should get the Washington's best game . 3% additional advantage
To summarize:
.50
+.03
+.05
+.03
=.61
Washington has a 61% chance to win this game. With the line at +120 this presents good value for a 5% of bankroll play on Washington
Now lets look at pitchers; Fisters ERA adjusted for ball parks(wash is slightly hitters park) is 2.61
Bumgarners adjusted era is 2.96(sf is a big pitchers park)
my math gives was a 3% pitching advanatage It should be noted that people are factoring Bumgarners last dominate start against the Pirates. The start before that he gave up four earned runs against the Dodgers when SF was trying to win the Division. So we are getting some value going against Bumgarner.
Now trends
Even though Bumgarner's is very good against WAsh(2.60) , SF is 2-5 in games he started against WASh. Sf is negative 16 units the last three years when the Total is less than 7. Wash has a 6-4 record in SF the last three years. Wash is plus 18 units against lefthanders the last three years. I give WASh a 5% advantage for these trends.
Finally Incentive
With there backs against the wall, (no tomorrow) we should get the Washington's best game . 3% additional advantage
To summarize:
.50
+.03
+.05
+.03
=.61
Washington has a 61% chance to win this game. With the line at +120 this presents good value for a 5% of bankroll play on Washington
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