UFC 173 ODDS And Picks

[TheGame]

UFC 173 Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- Saturday night here in Las Vegas, UFC 173 features a bantamweight title fight between champion Renan Barao and challenger T.J. Dillashaw. Barao, one of my top-five pound-for-pound fighters in the world, is a huge 8-to-1 favorite to retain his title, with Dillashaw getting about 5-to-1 odds on the takeback.

In his most recent fight, on Feb. 1, Barao (32-1) destroyed Urijah Faber in the first round, marking the second time he has beaten Faber. Faber is head of the Alpha Male training center, where Dillashaw is a member.

Dillashaw (9-2) will get plenty of advice from Faber leading up to this fight, and while T.J. is a game fighter, he's in a little deep here against one of the great fighters in the game today.

Look for Barao to move up to 145 pounds once Jose Aldo, one of my other top-five pound-for-pound fighters, moves up to 155 pounds.

Undercard

Saturday night’s undercard features a key fight in the light heavyweight division between undefeated Daniel Cormier and veteran Dan Henderson. Cormier (14-0), a two-time member of the U.S. Olympic wrestling team, is a prohibitive -850 favorite, with Hendo getting odds of about +550.

Since entering UFC, Cormier has easily beaten Frank Mir, Roy Nelson and in his last fight, Patrick Cummins in a one-minute KO (Cummins did take the fight on short notice). As long as Cormier fights smart and doesn't get caught with one of Henderson's powerful right hands – as Shogun Rua did in Henderson’s most recent fight – he should have little trouble winning.

A win here would most likely get Cormier a shot at the light heavyweight title later this year.

But once again, I can't recommend laying huge favorites in MMA fights, especially against a guy like Hendo who can end it with one shot. A big lean towards the favorite here, but the price is just too high and represents no value.

Also on the undercard, Robbie Lawler is a -220 favorite in a welterweight fight over Jake Ellenberger, who is priced at +180.

Lawler (22-10) earlier this year lost a unanimous but close decision to Johny Hendricks in a welterweight title bout that might have been the best performance of Robbie's career. In November 2013, he upset highly-regarded Rory MacDonald to get that title shot and has really improved his overall game.

Ellenberger (29-7) lost to MacDonald last July, and the lackluster performance set him back a bit. He had previously been on a nice role, and if this fight took place a year ago, the price would be flipped and Ellenberger would be the favorite.

So I'm going with the value play here and take Ellenberger to pull a mild upset over Lawler, who may have peaked in his last fight.

[TheGame]

Re: UFC 173 ODDS And Picks

UFC 173 Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Las Vegas and the MGM Grand Garden Arena for a 12-fight card Saturday night. In the UFC 173 main event, Renan Barao (32-1-0-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC) will defend his bantamweight belt against T.J. Dillashaw.

Most betting shops have the champ installed as an expensive -800 favorite (risk $800 to win $100), while Dillashaw is a +550 underdog (risk $100 to win $550). The total for 'over/under' wagers is 4.5 rounds (-180 to back the 'under', +150 for the 'over').

Barao has been laying waste to the 135-pound division since entering the promotion. The Brazilian hasn't tasted defeat in nearly a decade and is off his second win over Urijah Faber by first-round knockout at UFC 169.

Dillashaw (9-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC) is a 28-year-old wrestler who fights out of the Team Alpha Male camp in Sacramento. He has won five of his last six fights with the lone defeat coming by split decision against Raphael Assuncao last October.

Prediction: Barao is clearly too expensive to bet at the enormous straight price. I think he wins a unanimous decision, but he could get the finish. If you win most of your bets going into the main event, maybe take a shot at the 'over' for the decent payout? I'll probably be on the sidelines for this one.

In the co-main event, Daniel Cormier (14-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) will put his unbeaten record on the line against Dan Henderson. The winner will most likely get the next crack at the light heavyweight belt against the winner of Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson.

Most books are listing 'DC' as a -900 'chalk,' with 'Hendo' available for a +575 return (risk $100 to win $575). The total is 2.5 rounds ('over' -140, 'under' +110).

This will be Cormier's second fight in the 205-pound loop. He was scheduled to make his light-heavyweight debut against Rashad Evans, but 'Suga' had to pull out due to a knee injury less than two weeks before the fight. Therefore, the UFC pulled former Penn St. wrestler Patrick Cummins off the street and into the Octagon.

Cormier needed only 79 seconds to earn a first-round KO over Cummins at UFC 170. Prior to the win over Cummins, Cormier beat Frank Mir and Roy Nelson in a pair of heavyweight scraps. Before joining the UFC, Cormier won the Strikeforce heavyweight strap thanks to wins over Antonio 'Bigfoot' Silva and Josh Barnett.

Henderson (30-11 MMA, 7-5 UFC) ended a three-fight losing streak by knocking out Shogun Rua in the third round of their rematch in Brazil on March 23. Rua was dominating in the first two rounds and nearly finished Henderson, but the 43-year-old former Olympic wrestler landed a vintage right-hand 'H-Bomb' that floored Rua. Henderson pounced and finished the fight with additional strikes.

Prediction: I think Cormier most likely wins, but I'd probably bet Henderson as a +500 underdog or better against a lion. Hendo's one-punch KO power is worthy of a small wager on the underdog here.

In the welterweight division, 'Ruthless' Robbie Lawler and Jake 'The Juggernaut' Ellenberger will collide in the third fight on the pay-per-view card. Most spots have Lawler as a -230 'chalk,' leaving Ellenberger as an underdog in the +180 range. The total is 2.5 rounds (-110 either way).

Lawler (22-10-0-1 MMA, 7-4 UFC) is coming off a 25-minute slugfest against Johny Hendricks, who won the vacated 170-pound belt by unanimous decision in an epic thriller. Both fighters stood in the pocket and banged away for the first 4.5 rounds. Hendricks narrowly won Rounds 1 and 2, but Lawler clearly took Rounds 3 and 4 and nearly finished 'Bigg Rigg' on multiple occasions.

In the fifth and deciding stanza, Hendricks scored a takedown midway through the round and kept top position for the remainder of the bout. Lawler earned the title shot by winning his first three fights in his second tour of duty in the UFC. He beat Josh Koscheck, Bobby Voelker and Rory MacDonald.

Ellenberger (29-7 MMA, 8-3 UFC) is coming off the most disappointing performance of his career last summer against MacDonald, who won a unanimous decision in a snoozer. Both fighters talked trash galore going into the bout, but they were both reluctant to engage for the entire 15 minutes.

The winner of this bout will be in the mix for a title shot at 170.

Prediction: I like Lawler to prevail. The price is a little expensive, though, so I prefer a play on 'under' 2.5 rounds at the -110 price. I think Lawler wins by second-round KO.

The first two fights on the pay-per-view card feature 'Jamie Varner (-190) vs. James Krause (+155) and 'Takeya Mizugaki (-165) vs. Francisco Rivera (+140).