Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

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[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Friday, May 20 - NBC Sports Network


Race 11 - Post: 4:50 PM ET

2016 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes: Horses and Morning-Line Odds



1 A P Majetstic 30-1

2 Dothraki Queen 15-1

3 Land Over Sea 2-1

4 Ma Can Do It 30-1

5 Go Maggie Go 5-2

6 She's a Warrior 6-1

7 Downdraft 30-1

8 Double Entendre 30-1

9 Midnight On Oconee 15-1

10 Kinsley Kisses 6-1

11 In the Navy Now 30-1

12 Flora Dora 30-1

13 Cced 15-1

14 Mom's On Strike 15-1

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with the speedy duo of Midnight on Oconee (#9) and Kinsley Kisses (#10) predicted to lead the field through the opening furlongs. Midnight On Oconee possesses the speed of a front-running sprinter, but has shown some versatility in her two-turn races at the Fair Grounds this winter. Kinsley Kisses, on the other hand, is trying a route of ground for the first time after setting a fast pace going about seven furlongs in the Beaumont last time.






There’s some quality at the top, but not a lot of depth to a field that includes a couple of maidens and a handful of locally based horses that just appear to be too slow to contend. One does not have to dig too deep to figure out that the two most likely winners are the aforementioned pair exiting the Kentucky Oaks.

While Land Over Sea and Go Maggie Go were separated by only a neck at the finish of that race, they took vastly different paths to get there. Who ran the better race that day and who is the right filly to support in this Black-Eyed Susan? Let’s take an in-depth look at each of them:







This filly could kick off a very special weekend for the connections of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, who is the heavy favorite to take down the second jewel of the Triple Crown on Saturday. After finally extricating herself from Songbird’s long shadow when swooping into the Fair Grounds to earn her first stakes victory, she subsequently headed into the Kentucky Oaks as one of the top contenders. While she did not encounter any significant traffic trouble, Land Over Sea was forced to race a little wide around both turns after breaking from post position 13 in a 14-horse field. That said, we felt that Mario Gutierrez did everything in his power to give her a chance. She ultimately was not good enough, but she does deserve some credit for making up ground in a race that featured a moderate early pace. This nine-furlong distance is clearly not an issue for her. She has drawn a much more favorable post position today, and a projected fast pace should work in her favor. We have no knocks against her, but we do believe that she could face a stiff challenge from the her fellow Oaks rival, Go Maggie Go.







Sure, Land Over Sea was a little wide in the Oaks, but she had a relatively good trip thereafter. That was not the case for Maggie Go, who encountered slight trouble at multiple points in the race, the sum total of which probably cost her a runner-up finish. Things went awry right from the start, when she broke a step slowly and had to steady off Lewis Bay’s hind quarters as that one crossed over in front of her. Go Maggie Go won both of her first two starts from a relatively close-up stalking position, but that early trouble had her placed back in mid-pack, some seven lengths off the lead. After saving ground early, Luis Saez angled her off the rail as the field headed into the far turn, in hopes of moving up into contention. Unfortunately, Go Maggie Go appeared hesitant to go through a hole inside of Mo d’Amour and had to get taken up approaching the three-eighths pole. Now in behind a wall of horses, Saez was forced to angle her all the way out into the five-path approaching the stretch, at this point having let the accelerating Land Over Sea run right by him. Most inexperienced runners would have given up at this point, but Go Maggie Go unleashed a strong rally, finishing fastest of all while actually making up over a length on Land Over Sea through the final three-sixteenths. She figures to have gotten a few races worth of seasoning out of that effort, and we believe she can turn the tables on Land Over Sea today. If she does indeed go off at a larger price, as the morning line suggests, that would only increase her appeal.


The race centers around these two main contenders, but there are some others worth considering underneath:


Both of the likely pacesetters have some questions to answer. The Larry Jones-trained ) looked like a potential Kentucky Oaks contender after overcoming a wide trip against an apparent rail bias to finish a good second in the Rachel Alexandra back in February. However, she totally fell apart after setting the pace in the Fair Grounds Oaks. If she returns to the form that was on display two back, she would be a superfecta possibility here, but she’s hard to trust.

Kinsley Kisses (#10) handled the step up in class fairly well in last month’s Grade 2 Beaumont after easily winning a pair of lesser races in Florida to start her career. The 111 speed figure that she earned last time makes her one of the fastest fillies in this race, but the added distance remains a question. We also feel that her Beaumont effort looks better in print than it does when watching the race. She could certainly hang on for a piece, but we believe others will offer better value.

Dothraki Queen (#2) may be helped most of all by the projected pace scenario, since she is a deep closer that is at the mercy of race flow. A great ride from Corey Lanerie earned her some valuable black type in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, but she’s yet to get back to that effort in two races since. Her Appalachian feels like purely a prep for a more serious race like this, so she figures to move forward. She’s definitely one to consider underneath in exotics.

The two maidens, Ma Can Do It (#4) and She’s a Warrior (#6), actually are not without trifecta chances themselves. Both have the right kind of running styles for this race and have earned Grade 1 stakes placings, which is more than many of their competitors can claim.

We’re less enamored of Cced (#13) and Mom’s On Strike (#14), who both drew unfavorable outside post positions in this large field. They appear to be coming into this race in good form, but their stalking running styles could force their riders to use them too strongly in the early stages as they try to clear the runners to their inside and tuck in behind the pacesetters.

The one massive long shot that we would consider throwing into our exotic wagers is Flora Dora (#12). She didn’t finish too far behind Lewis Bay and Mo d’Amour in a couple of stakes races in New York, and those fillies both ran very well in the Kentucky Oaks and would be major players in this race. It seemed as if she just didn’t handle the wet track in the Gazelle, but she has experience at this distance and has been working very strongly up at Saratoga for this race. Don’t be surprised if she completes the trifecta at a huge price.



THE PLAY

Win: #5, Go Maggie Go, at odds of 5/2 or better

Exacta:

5 with 2,3,4,6,12

3 with 12

Trifectas:

3,5 with 3,5 with 2,4,6,12

3,5 with 2,4,6,12 with 3,5

5 with 3 with 9,10,13,14

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Land Over Sea


Doug O'Neill trained filly will hit the track for the tenth time Friday off a good second in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks May 5. It followed a career defining 4 1/2 length win in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks March 26 and consecutive runner-up finishes - behind Songbird in the Grade 2 Santa Ysabel Stakes at Santa Anita March 5 and behind Songbird in the Grade 2 Las Virgenes Stakes February 6. She's also posted a seventh behind Songbird in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile October 31, another respectable second behind Songbird in the Grade 1 Chandelier Stakes at Santa Anita September 26 and a third behind Songbird yet again in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante September 5. Land Over Sea hasn't been worse than second in her last four starts against top quality fields. She departs from gate 3 with Mario Gutierrez aboard the morning line favorite.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Go Maggie Go


lightly raced Dale Romans trained filly makes just her fourth career having posted two wins so far. Her first race produced and impressive2 1/4 length win at Gulfstream March 13 and her second was a nice upset score in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks April 2. Last time out was a slightly disappointing, troubled fourth in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks May 6. Go Maggie Go looked had been very good in limited action before a slight stumble last time out and hopes to bounce back from post 5. Luis Saez gets the call.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

She's a Warrior


has yet to post a win in her six career starts but has three seconds and three third place finishes. Last time out was a third behind Songbird in the Grade 3 Santa Anita Oaks at Santa Anita April 9 which followed a second in a MSW March 5 and another third behind Songbird in the Grade 2 Las Virgenes Stakes February 6. She's a Warrior has been in every race so far and could be in line for her first ever win this Friday. Gary Stevens has been tabbed to ride from gate 6.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Kinsey Kisses


will race for just the fourth time for trainer Todd Pletcher having posted two wins and a third place finish so far. Last time out was a respectable third in her graded stakes debut - the Grade 3 Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland April 17 which followed an Allowance Optional Claiming score at Tampa Bay March 13 and a maiden score at first asking in January. John Velazquez will try to guide her to his first stakes score in her first race beyond seven furlongs - from gate 10 Friday.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Dothraki Queen


Kenneth McPeek trained filly placed in her first five career starts - two wins, a second and two third place finishes. She enters off an ugly eighth however in the Grade 3 Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland April 14. She won the Grade 2 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs in September and went on to a couple of good results - a second in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes in October and a third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Two starts back was another decent result - a third in the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes November 28. Dothraki Queen has been decent so far and will be looking for a strong bounce with Julien Leparoux in the saddle from gate 2.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Midnight On Oconee


has seven career starts for trainer Larry Jones with two wins and three second place finishes. She enters off a seventh after setting the p[ace and tiring in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks March 26 which followed a pair of respectable runner-up finishes - the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes February 20 and the minor Silverbulletday Stakes January 16. Midnight On Oconee has been OK and chases her first stakes win from post 9 Friday. Gabriel Saez has been scheduled to ride.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Cced


has two wins and a second place finish in four career starts for trainer Steve Asmussen. She makes her stakes debut Friday off an Allowance Optional Claiming score at Oaklawn Park April 14, a sixth in a similar race on that track March 11 and a maiden score at Fair Grounds in February. Cced takes a huge step up in competition in so-so form and departs from post 13 with Florent Geroux guiding her.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Mom's On Strike


will hit the track for the third time for trainer Joe Sharp after two career starts produced a win and a third place finish. She finally broke maiden last time out at Oaklawn Park April 16 after a third in her debut March 17 at Fair Grounds. Mom's On Strike steps up in decent form and will have Joe Rocco in the reins from the outside gate 14.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Flora Dora


finished second in the Grade 3 Tempted Stakes at Aqueduct November 4 but has placed in just one of four starts since. Last time out was a fifth in the Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct April 9 after a fourth in the minor Busher Stakes on that track in February, a good win in the minor Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct January 31 and a fourth in the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes on that track November 28. Flora Dora has shown form in the past but has looked just average lately. She looks for a major breakthrough Friday from gate 12 with Junior Alvarado aboard.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

A P Majestic


Michael Trombetta trained filly has two wins, two seconds and a third place finish in seven career starts. She makes her graded stakes debut off a good win in her stakes debut - the minor $100,000 Weber City Miss Stakes at Laurel Park April 9 which followed off-the-board finishes in two Allowance races earlier this year. A P Majestic hadn't been all that impressive before last time out but hopes to build on a career-best effort from the rail Friday. Victor Carrasco rides.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

In the Navy Now


has a win, two seconds and a third place finish in seven career starts - all at Laurel Park. She makes her graded stakes debut Friday having placed in her last four starts. Last time out was a runner-up finish behind A P Majestic in the minor Weber City Miss Stakes April 9 which followed a third in the minor Caesar's Wish Stakes March 12 and a maiden score in January. In the Navy Now has been trending upward recently and could be a factor Saturday from post 11. Trevor McCarthy rides.

[NYK]

Re: Black-Eyed Susan Day - May 20 (Info)

Ma Can Do It


Dale Romans trained filly has yet to post a win in her six career starts but does have three runner-ups and a third place finish. Last time out was a second in a MSW at Keeneland April 23 after an eighth in another MSW at Oaklawn Park March 20, a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and an OK third in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades in October. Ma Can Do It has placed in just one of her last four starts ahead of this weekend and looks as though she'll be in over her head in this one. Brian Joseph Hernandez has the mount from gate 4.