Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

#7, Collected (12/1)


This Bob Baffert trainee was steered off the Derby trail after a disappointing fourth place finish in the Southwest earlier this winter. Targeting easier spots, he racked up visually impressive scores at Sunland Park and in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. His connections have had the Preakness in their sights for some time now, and he’s done nothing wrong on his way to getting here. However, he’s another runner with speed in a race loaded with pace players. Furthermore, he still has some stamina questions to answer, since winning a nine furlong ungraded stakes at Sunland Park is not quite as demanding as competing in one of the major Derby preps. He’s far from impossible, but we get the feeling that he and Stradivari are going to be two of the shorter prices in this race despite the fact that they have not run significantly faster than many of the other fringe players. We think there are more interesting horses to use underneath at bigger prices.

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

#8, Laoban (30/1)







While the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be racing on a clear lead in the early going, it is somewhat interesting that his connections are removing the blinkers today. However, even if they’re successful in getting Laoban to relax early, there are plenty of other frontrunners that would be more than willing to take up the running and still ensure that this is an honestly run race. Whatever the tactics, this colt is not without a chance in the Preakness. Of the two horses coming out of the Blue Grass, he certainly ran the better race than Cherry Wine. He was sent hard to the lead, laid down quick fractions, and fought off the favorite, Zulu, in upper stretch before getting swallowed up by the closers in the last furlong. A mile and three-sixteenths may be a stretch for him, but others have to answer similar questions. There are others that we find more attractive, but we still wouldn’t be surprised to see him still in the hunt as the field turns for home.

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

#9, Abiding Star (30/1)


It isn’t wise to underestimate horses that are in great form, especially when their confidence is high. That has to be the case with Abiding Star, who comes into this race riding a five-race winning streak. That said, it wasn’t until two starts ago that he took his game to the next level. Facing a decent group of seasoned older runners, this colt basically ran off midway through the race and never looked back, drawing off to an impressive score while earning a 114 speed figure, tied for the fastest race run by any of these runners not named Nyquist or Exaggerator. It seems like a wet track would only better his chances. We wouldn’t be surprised if he challenged Laoban for the early lead and could even see him as the one speed that’s still trying to fend off Nyquist approaching the quarter pole. Essentially, we think he sports a very similar profile to Stradivari, except he’s going to be about three or four times the price of that one. That’s good enough for us to throw him into our exotic wagers.

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

#10, Fellowship (30/1)


We put him in the same category as Cherry Wine. His running style gives him an outside chance at running into the superfecta, but we believe there are many more talented runners in this race. We also would have expected a little more from him in his first start out of Mark Casse’s barn last time, but the trainer switch really didn’t seem to move him forward. The prospect of a wet track may present an additional concern, since he didn’t appear to handle very wet going as a two-year-old.

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

#11, Stradivari (10/1)







This is the horse that seemingly everyone is hoping will emerge as the primary challenger to Nyquist and Exaggerator. He was visually impressive when running off to a 14-length victory last time at Keeneland and people took notice, with some even conceding the Preakness to him before the Derby had even been run. So can he live up to the hype and prove that he is just as good as the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby? We’re doubtful. For one thing, he’s never faced a field of this quality. The race rating of his allowance win was a 105, whereas the race rating of the Preakness is a 117. That’s a pretty significant leap up in class. Furthermore, he hasn’t actually run that fast yet. Due to the relatively moderate pace he was allowed to set, his speed figure did not come back all that fast. The 113 that he earned makes him no faster than horses like Laoban and Abiding Star, who are going to go off at much higher prices. Finally, he’s never had to deal with the kind of early speed that he’ll encounter in this race and may have to adopt new tactics while trying to come from off the pace. Given all of these obstacles and the inevitable lack of value, we’re completely leaving him off our tickets.

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

THE PLAY

While Nyquist (#3) might have the slight edge over the Derby runner-up in terms of raw ability, we believe that EXAGGERATOR (#5) will offer better value given the likelihood of a hotly contested pace and the possibility of a wet track. There should not be that great of a disparity in odds between these two.


Win:
#5, Exaggerator, at odds of 5/2 or higher


Exacta:
5 with 3,6


Trifectas:
3,5 with 3,5 with 1,6,8,9
5 with 1,6,8,9 with 3
5 with 3 with 2,7,10


Superfectas:
3,5 with 3,5 with 1,6,8,9 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10
5 with 3 with 2,7,10 with 1,6,8,9

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

Race 12 - Post: 5:39 PM ET

The Grade 2, $250,000 Dixie




According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, the early leader will be #12 Take the Stand. He is closely followed by #7 Grand Arch. Then there’s a gap back to El Kabeir, Long On Value, and Prince Gagarin.






The fastest TimeformUS Late Pace rating in the field, a 120, belongs to Golden Sabre.



#1 Long On Value (12-1): Mott five-year-old has run his number on soft turf, has competitive speed figures, and is proven at this level. However, he regressed three points, to a 121, second off the layoff. We expect him to tuck in behind the speed today. He is fully capable of coming from off the pace. He is a horse we can neither embrace nor dismiss.


#2 Za Approval (10-1): Eight-year-old has a sterling record and bankroll, but we don’t think he is quite what he once was, and we question him on soft turf. He is hard to entirely dismiss off the layoff, since any kind of “fresh” improvement over his most recent puts him in the thick of things, and Casse gets a solid 82 off comparable layoffs, but we are playing against him on the win end.


#3 Captain Dixie (20-1): Put strong races together after Jamie Ness claimed him from Chad Brown, earning speed figures of 121 and 122 against Optional Claiming competition. Visually, we are very much intrigued by the latter effort, which we found impressive. The downsides are considerable though. His lone effort on yielding turf was dull. He is facing much tougher company than he is used to facing. And we are not necessarily looking to play Jamie Ness in a graded stake. Because the odds figure to be fat, however, we will find a way to get this horse on backup horizontal exotic tickets, especially if the course is firm or good.


#4 Takeover Target (8-1):





Chad Brown colt will be making his fourth start as a four-year-old. A Grade 2 winner, he has recorded three speed figures in the low-to-mid 120s. Brown has not started enough horses at Pimlico to get a TFUS trainer rating for this track, but he has done very well here on a short sample earlier in his career. He gets a 100 rating with similar race spacing and a 100 with this rider. Takeover Target is proven multiple times on soft turf. We were not wowed visually by his loss to a red-hot NY-bred at Aqueduct in April, but the figure came back strong, and it is unlikely that race was the target anyway. Strong contender, possibly at a hint of price.


#5 Conquest Typhoon (15-1)





Ran his best race two back at Gulfstream, when he made a late run to take a second-level allowance race with a powerful speed figure of 127. Returning in the Makers Mile at Keeneland, he found himself with way too much to do going into the far turn, made part of a crazy wide run around that turn, and came up well short, regressing to a 116. He has won a Grade 2 on yielding turf. He has nice spacing into this race. He seems like a reasonable longshot to us.


#6 Golden Sabre (15-1): One of two for Graham Motion, at time of writing, this gelding has no rider listed, which is hardly encouraging. His lifetime-best performance came on synthetic at Woodbine: a 127 while winning a Grade 3. He will be going third off the layoff today. His pattern off the layoff (105 and 108) is slow but pointed the right way. None of this sets the heart to racing. However, Golden Sabre ran only once on yielding turf, and we liked his effort quite a bit. Indeed, we think it was considerably better than it looks in the PPs. We’ll give him a longshot chance in here.


#7 Grand Arch (4-1): Seven-year-old gelding makes his first start since running third in the BC Mile at Keeneland. That was a gritty performance in which he briefly looked as if he was going nowhere and then fought his way to a piece of the trifecta while no match for Tepin. That performance gave him back to back speed figures of 130 or higher. He is proven against the best turf horses we have. He is proven on soft turf (though his trainer seems to disagree). He has fired big off the layoff. His trainer gets a 92 rating off this sort of layoff. He has been training regularly at Keeneland and Belmont. Pace Projector shows him with the rail early, just off the early lead. We see him as the most likely winner of this race, but given the uncertainty, we would be demanding about price.


#8 Prince Gagarin (15-1): Makes his second start in the US. His Euro numbers are too slow vs. these. So is his lone US number. Handles soft turf, but would need a huge jump today. Pass.


#9 Ring Weekend (9-2)





His most recent race was over 14 months ago, when he uncorked a wide, powerful late run to overpower the field in the Grade 1 Kilroe at Santa Anita. For that effort he earned a speed figure of 123, which certainly fits in here. He’ll be making his first start as a five-year-old, and he is certainly eligible to improve further. However, horses do not get 15 months off for no good reason. Ring Weekend had a foot problem, one that persisted. Moreover, good as trainer Graham Motion is with layoff horses in general (94 rating), he is nowhere near as effective when the length of the layoff gets extremely long (53 rating for layoffs of between 330-551 days).






Ring Weekend has fired off shorter layoffs in the past. He is certainly a contender. He has big talent. But given his relatively short odds and long layoff and the fact that his lone soft-turf effort (while ending in victory) was not his best, we will look elsewhere for our top pick.


#10 El Kabeir (20-1): Makes his turf debut in his 14th start. Is not bred to move up on the surface. Trainer gets a 51 rating off this sort of layoff and a 46 going first-time turf. We do not care for this rider on grass. El Kabeir is probably not fast enough off his best dirt effort. We don’t want him on turf today.


#11 Force the Pass (5-1): Winner of the Grade 1 Belmont Derby last summer, he returned from a six-month layoff at Gulfstream and recorded a lifetime-top speed figure of 127 while running a close third. A four-year-old with nine races under his belt, he still has some upside. What is more, on our figures, he is effectively the second fastest horse in the race. Pace Projector shows him coming from well off the pace today, though he has won with that kind of trip. His trainer, Alan Goldberg, gets better ratings off the layoff than he does second off the layoff. He is proven on nothing softer than “good” turf. His ML odds seem a bit stingy. But he is certainly a contender today.


#12 Take the Stand (6-1): The second and more highly regarded Mott entrant, this Argentina-bred enters off a wire-to-wire win in a Fair Grounds Grade 2. He set a fast pace in that effort (note race fractions and pace figures color-coded in red), receiving a seven-point boost in his final-time figure on our figures (which are adjusted for pace). This leaves him with a 121—a competitive number in here. He has never raced on “off” turf. His TFUS Breeding Rating for off turf is not particularly encouraging. Draws a tough post. If his rider sends, he may end up parked outside of Grand Arch, which would make for a mighty unpleasant trip in our book. Take the Stand is a contender, but we are looking elsewhere for our top selection.


#13 Cage Fighter (20-1): Pulled up in his six-year-old debut. Has never won a graded stake. Draws poorly. Pass.




The Play:

At time of writing, the forecast is for heavy rain, and a few owners and trainers are talking about scratching their horses if the course ends up soft.

We believe that Grand Arch is the most likely winner regardless of the track condition. But we find his likely odds unexciting.

In multi-race exotics, assuming that the course is yielding or soft, we will use Grand Arch (who might very well scratch), Takeover Target, Conquest Typhoon, and Golden Sabre.

Assuming that the course is yielding or soft, we will make Takeover Target our win bet, and we will use Conquest Typhoon heavily underneath.

If somehow the course ends up firm or good, we will replace Golden Sabre with Captain Dixie and keep everything else the same.

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

Race 9 - 3:21 PM Post

$100,000 Chick Lang




According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, the early leader will be Justin Squared, and by a big margin. Big Louie D is shown in second place, with Formal Summation in third. The pace is projected to be neither fast nor slow.






#1 Justin Squared (9-5)





Baffert colt made his debut at Del Mar as a two-year-old. He ran away and hid from MSW company, which is often very strong at that racetrack in the summer, earning a powerful speed figure of 110. Then he went to the sidelines for seven months. He returned in April to take a bottom-level allowance at Los Alamitos, again winning wire to wire, again unchallenged at any call, again with a powerful speed figure—this one a 116. That race received a Race Rating of 112, indicating that he is not stepping up in class today. In addition, Mrazek, whom he beat by almost two lengths in that allowance, returned to miss by a neck in a Grade 3 last week. Baffert’s work at Pimlico has been much publicized. He currently gets a perfect 100 rating on a small, showy sample. The patented Baffert fast workouts are on display. Pace Projector shows Justin Squared making the early lead comfortably. He has not yet raced on an off track, but he qualifies as the horse to beat (at a short price).


#2 Cozze Cat (30-1): Still eligible for a bottom-level allowance and seems overmatched in here.


Quijote (3-1): Has gone forward on our speed figures in every start. Jumped all the way to a 115 at Charles Town in his most recent start. Both he and his lone serious opponent in that race ran around the racetrack together, taking advantage of soft fractions. Quijote is facing tougher horses today, and fast figures earned at Charles Town do not always translate to larger racetracks, since Charles Town is a racetrack that can be especially conducive to specialists. But he is very fast on our figures, and he has twice proven that he can win from off the pace.


Discreet Angel (12-1): Kentucky-bred is 5 for 8 in Puerto Rico (for which we lack speed figures). He looks nice on video, but his sloppy-track races do not seem to be his best work, and anyway, we tend to doubt that he can run with the best of these as he cuts back in distance. Plus he apparently enjoys running on the lead, and he seems exceedingly unlikely to get to the lead in here.


Never Gone South (8-1): Worked his way up to a speed figure of 101 at Laurel as a two-year-old. Then he paired it. Then he exploded to a 116 after setting a slow pace (note pace figures and race fractions color-coded in blue) and dominating a minor stake—again at Laurel. Then he stretched out in distance and resumed running in the 100 range. Trainer Cathal Lynch gets a nice 93 rating at Pimlico on a small sample. Our second-biggest knock on Never Gone South is that he is facing considerably tougher today. Our biggest knock on him is that he likes to race close to the early lead, if not on it, and if he tries those tactics today, Justin Squared figures to make him pay for it.


Counterforce (5-2)





Asmussen colt has improved his speed figure in all three starts: 98 101 105. Most recently, he took advantage of a fast pace and made a strong late run to win a minor stake. The Race Rating for that race was a 111, only one point below the preliminary Race Rating for today’s race. All three of Counterforce’s starts came at Oaklawn. Asmussen in general has been less successful in his rare starts at Pimlico. Counterforce’s off-the-pace style could be flattered in here. However, to date he is about 10 points slower on our figures than the fastest horses in this field. And his ML odds are short. We see him as a contender but a likely underlay.


Big Louie D (10-1)





2 for 3 lifetime, all at Parx, today he makes his first start in six months. This is a weak category for Jason Servis, who gets a mere 30 rating off this sort of layoff. Big Louie D was running improving speed figures before the gap, his best being a 106 that he earned in wire-to-wire fashion. This leaves him well shy of Justin Squared and Quijote. Certainly eligible to come back to the races a better, more mature horse, he may or may not be ready to display this improvement first off the layoff for Servis, and he is another whose style may be cramped by the Baffert speed-burner on the rail. And our Race Ratings indicate that he is up in class by a whopping 17 points. Nice horse. Tough assignment. Need big odds.


Formal Summation (20-1): Just paired his lifetime-top of 102. That is way too slow vs. the best of these, and if he sticks with the front-running style that he has employed of late, he will have to deal with Justin Squared early. Won a slow race in the slop as a two-year-old. We don’t like him today.



The Play:

We do not see this as a great betting race. Justin Squared is the most likely winner, but he figures to get pounded by the crowd.

Quijote and Counterforce are obvious contenders at similarly less-than-thrilling odds.

If a genuine upset is coming, we see Big Louie D (10-1 ML) as the most likely to pull it off.

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

Race 11 - 4:40 PM Post

$100,000 Sir Barton



According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, the Sir Barton will be run at a fast pace, and the clear early leader will be #5 American Freedom. He is followed by Cadeyrn and Gettysburg. Then there’s another gap back to Dazzling Gem and Donegal Moon.





Lazarus Project (20-1): Has had three chances to get back to the 101 that he ran in his second start. Still hasn’t done it. We are looking elsewhere.


Cadeyrn (15-1): Broke his maiden by 11 lengths at Aqueduct in his fourth start. Essentially paired his top of 103, which is too slow against the best of these. His front-running style may leave him compromised by the projected fast pace. We don’t like him today.


Kingslayer (15-1): His trainer gets a 100 rating at Pimlico and this colt’s top of 100 came in the slop at Parx. However, after seven tries, he is still way too slow on our figures, and he will probably be coming from well back today. Pass.


Voluntario (10-1): Interesting horse. He was fast at age two, establishing a top of 104 while breaking his maiden in a maiden claiming sprint. He got past it in his second start at age three. Then he moved forward another four points in his first route attempt. He will be trying two turns for the first time, and he is one more forward move away from being able to run with the best of these at a price. Rudy Rodriguez gets a decent 78 rating at Pimlico. The projected fast pace would probably flatter this horse.


American Freedom (5-2)





Baffert colt broke his maiden in his debut, over a sloppy track. Then he jumped 12 points to a 115 in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile despite a rough start. Pace Projector shows him in the early lead, but he is also a prime candidate to stalk instead. Baffert gets a 100 rating at Pimlico and a 92 with third-time starters. $500,000 purchase has loads of potential and is already very fast. Strong contender. The knock here is price.


Donegal Moon (8-1): Ran a 110 as a two-year-old while well beaten by Mohaymen in the Remsen. Surpassed it by six points while dominating an entry-level allowance at Parx. Regressed six points in the Blue Grass. A step back toward the 116 would make him a contender today. Pletcher is strong (99 rating) at Pimlico.


Dazzling Gem (9-2)





Has an absolutely gorgeous pattern of speed figures: 98 108 110 113. Has proven capable of stalking a fast pace while retaining his punch. Has proven capable of sitting back like a full-blown closer and making a run. He’s fast (top of 113). He’s lightly raced. He’s in excellent hands. He has faced strong company. He has nice timing into this race (Cox gets a 100 rating with comparable spacing between starts). He has supposedly been training very well for this. In the Arkansas Derby he made a wide run while hard-used after likely having had some of the life sucked out of him by racing fairly close to a crazy-fast pace. We find much to like here. Dazzling Gem is our selection.


Moon King (15-1): Casse colt is a little slow vs. these but he has a pretty pattern and he’s in good hands. We would not rule out another jump, which could get him into the bottom of exotics.


Charmed Victory (20-1): His last dirt try was a step backwards from a number that itself was too slow. We are not optimistic.


Discreet Lover (15-1): Made a big jump, to a 111, in his 11th start. That is the kind of effort that is likely to be followed by a regression. And he is leaving Parx for this. However, he has the right style, and he will be a price. So we will keep him in the exotic mix in the hope that he comes close to pairing.


I Came to Party (20-1): His only strong effort from nine tries came in a Charles Town sprint that we don’t expect to translate all that well today. We’ll pass.


Fearless Dragon (20-1): Is on an improving pattern but remains too slow and is way up in class for this. Pass.


Gone Local (30-1): Way too slow on our numbers.


Gettysburg (5-1): We are quite fond of this colt. He has improved his speed figure in every start: 84 93 101 104 114 118. He has run well in tougher company than he sees today. He fought hard after setting a crazy-fast pace in the Arkansas Derby. Pletcher’s horses fire at Pimlico. There is quite a bit to like here. What we do not like is this post into a projected hot pace. But Gettysburg is certainly a strong contender. At this point in his career, he could very well be the most talented horse in the field.



The Play:

Win bet on Dazzling Gem.

Add trifectas using Dazzling Gem over and under American Freedom and Gettysburg, while using Voluntario, Moon King, and Discreet Lover in the three-hole only.

[NYK]

Re: Preakness Stakes Post Positions / Opening Odds

UPDATED ODDS ...