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It's a dull Saturday with the rain and all here in my area. So I thought put up somethings I gathered over the years to share with you Bastards.
I mean it's a 20 horse field so why not try to narrow them down as quick as possible to help you lock into a couple of nice payers, and spend more time structuring your tickets rather than combing non-essentials items that the past performances show.
History:
The first Kentucky Derby was run in 1875, and since that beginning, through major world wars, and the Great Depression, and whatever . . . there has never been a missed running. What a great American tradition it really is. In my opinion it is under appreciated and should be a national holiday!
I mean everyone-and-their-brother comes out to make money on this race. They're either betting it, or selling their so-called expert selections. Funny how those cats come out of the wood-work. We'll just have to let them tout their little $7.80 winner. Ah, but I reckon that's a pet peeve for another day....
The preps started last September at Churchill & Santa Anita, and now the field is pretty much set as we wait for post position draws.
This is the forth year of the points system for qualification into the Derby. In two of the previous three years, the Derby was won by the points total leader (last year that horse is International Star). Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was 4th going into his run for the roses. For 2016 it's Steve Asmussen's Gun Runner leading the way.
Trends:
The thing about trends is that they are right . . . until they are wrong! But in the Derby there is money to be made regardless.
The main trend of note in recent decades of the Derby had been the very low percentage of winning favorites. In the previous 33 years (1980 through 2012), the favorite had won the Derby only 4 times! But then the last three years were won by favorites, Orb in 2013 (but was at a very acceptable 5/1 and keyed a huge exacta of $982), and California Chrome after that (and still again the exacta paid a respectable $340 with the Trifecta paying $3400+). However last year with American Pharoah was the worse paying Derby we've seen in ages. The exacta paid a very cold $72.60, and a trifecta that makes me shiver at $202.00. In the words of Charles Barkley "Just turrble"
Of course, the Derby always has the potential for monster payoffs. In recent decades we’ve had Gato Del Sol at $44.4, Ferdinand at $37.40, Lil E Tee at $35.6, Thunder Gulch at $51, Charismatic at $64.6, War Emblem at $43, Giacomo at $102.6, Mine That Bird at $103.2, Super Saver at $43.8, and I'll Have Another at $32.6. In the words of Derk Diggler....well I won't go there.
Another trend is recency . . .
In general, horses do well by racing into condition particularly in the marquee races. Now, of course, this isn't always true top trainers can bring horse up to an important race off a training regimen alone (the late, great Bobby Frankel was a master of that). However, there is a long-standing stat/fact: since 1956, no horse has won a Derby without having a prep race in the previous 6-weeks. But when Animal Kingdom won four years ago, he was only one-day shy of having been off 6 weeks (after resting off the Dubai trip), so that trend, for all practical purposes, essentially ended that year.
Prep Races:
Beyer Numbers:
There is somewhat of a trend going here as well;
A. They seem to be less and less an important factor, and
B. They had been getting lower each year in recent years. Formerly, a horse needed a 105 or better in one of the major preps, but those kinds of figures have been rare as hen’s teeth in recent years.
However, The 2014 winner, California Chrome did sport the highest Beyer at 107 (the only horse in the field with a 105 or greater), and in 2015 There was a good crop of four that cracked that coveted 105 number; American Pharoah with a 105, Dortmund with a 106, Upstart with a 108, and Materiality with a 110. Something to look for.
Pace:
Overall the Derby is only rarely won by a dedicated front-running type. There are so many runners trying so hard that the 'slow-'em-down-and-steal-it-on-the-lead' type race (which is very common in day-to-day racing) just doesn't happen in the Derby. Anecdotally: I had a big bet on War Emblem in 2002 when he took them wire-to-wire, but he wasn't a “need-to-lead” type, and he could have as easily run from off the pace and still have won it as he was much the best that day.
In normal racing, around 60 percent of races are won by horses that are positioned among the front 3 at the first call. In the Derby that figure drops to around 20 percent.
When the speedballs do go at each other then on occasion a deep closer type will come in, but the overall best profile for this particular race is a mid-pack runner that can stay in touch with the leaders and have something left for the stretch preferably with tactical speed that has a "push button" aspect to it so as to help get and maintain position while avoiding traffic problems.
As a result of the new points system for qualification into the race none of the allowed qualifying races are sprints. So sprint type speed horses have necessarily disappeared. No more can a couple of high-purse value wins at the shorter distances get a horse into the Derby. The proverbial "melt-down" race where the pace completely falls apart will from now on (I would think) be a rarer occurrence.
Andy Beyer quoted a very pertinent stat before the 2014 Derby: Since 1986, the first half mile has been run in less than 46 seconds eight times. In each of those years, stretch-runners have prevailed, most of them coming from far, far behind. Watch the half-mile time as the race unfolds you’ll have a good indication of your horse’s chances.
Last year American Pharoah ran a 45:1 at 7f when winning the Del Mar Futurity as a 2 yr old, and he pressed a 45:4 in the Arkansas Derby. The 15' Derby it was 47.34 and he was running 3rd just off the lead.
In ending here; I love horse racing. I enjoy handicapping the horses, love seeing the race unfold and knowing how it's going to shake out, and I FRG to have a winning day. So.......
May The Winners Be Yours!
Doc
I mean it's a 20 horse field so why not try to narrow them down as quick as possible to help you lock into a couple of nice payers, and spend more time structuring your tickets rather than combing non-essentials items that the past performances show.
History:
The first Kentucky Derby was run in 1875, and since that beginning, through major world wars, and the Great Depression, and whatever . . . there has never been a missed running. What a great American tradition it really is. In my opinion it is under appreciated and should be a national holiday!
I mean everyone-and-their-brother comes out to make money on this race. They're either betting it, or selling their so-called expert selections. Funny how those cats come out of the wood-work. We'll just have to let them tout their little $7.80 winner. Ah, but I reckon that's a pet peeve for another day....
The preps started last September at Churchill & Santa Anita, and now the field is pretty much set as we wait for post position draws.
This is the forth year of the points system for qualification into the Derby. In two of the previous three years, the Derby was won by the points total leader (last year that horse is International Star). Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was 4th going into his run for the roses. For 2016 it's Steve Asmussen's Gun Runner leading the way.
Trends:
The thing about trends is that they are right . . . until they are wrong! But in the Derby there is money to be made regardless.
The main trend of note in recent decades of the Derby had been the very low percentage of winning favorites. In the previous 33 years (1980 through 2012), the favorite had won the Derby only 4 times! But then the last three years were won by favorites, Orb in 2013 (but was at a very acceptable 5/1 and keyed a huge exacta of $982), and California Chrome after that (and still again the exacta paid a respectable $340 with the Trifecta paying $3400+). However last year with American Pharoah was the worse paying Derby we've seen in ages. The exacta paid a very cold $72.60, and a trifecta that makes me shiver at $202.00. In the words of Charles Barkley "Just turrble"
Of course, the Derby always has the potential for monster payoffs. In recent decades we’ve had Gato Del Sol at $44.4, Ferdinand at $37.40, Lil E Tee at $35.6, Thunder Gulch at $51, Charismatic at $64.6, War Emblem at $43, Giacomo at $102.6, Mine That Bird at $103.2, Super Saver at $43.8, and I'll Have Another at $32.6. In the words of Derk Diggler....well I won't go there.
Another trend is recency . . .
In general, horses do well by racing into condition particularly in the marquee races. Now, of course, this isn't always true top trainers can bring horse up to an important race off a training regimen alone (the late, great Bobby Frankel was a master of that). However, there is a long-standing stat/fact: since 1956, no horse has won a Derby without having a prep race in the previous 6-weeks. But when Animal Kingdom won four years ago, he was only one-day shy of having been off 6 weeks (after resting off the Dubai trip), so that trend, for all practical purposes, essentially ended that year.
- Another extremely long-standing stat is that of Derby winners having raced as two year olds. That trend has been going since 1882. Horses just don’t win the Derby without having raced as a 2-yr old. This is the so-called "Apollo's Curse" (the name of the last horse to accomplish it).
- No horse has won the Derby after finishing worse than fourth in its prior start since Iron Liege, who was fifth in the 1957 Derby Trial.
Prep Races:
- I've always been of the opinion that, in order to seriously consider for the win spot in the Derby the horse should have won or placed in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 prep race at over a mile distance as a 3 year old.
Beyer Numbers:
There is somewhat of a trend going here as well;
A. They seem to be less and less an important factor, and
B. They had been getting lower each year in recent years. Formerly, a horse needed a 105 or better in one of the major preps, but those kinds of figures have been rare as hen’s teeth in recent years.
However, The 2014 winner, California Chrome did sport the highest Beyer at 107 (the only horse in the field with a 105 or greater), and in 2015 There was a good crop of four that cracked that coveted 105 number; American Pharoah with a 105, Dortmund with a 106, Upstart with a 108, and Materiality with a 110. Something to look for.
Pace:
Overall the Derby is only rarely won by a dedicated front-running type. There are so many runners trying so hard that the 'slow-'em-down-and-steal-it-on-the-lead' type race (which is very common in day-to-day racing) just doesn't happen in the Derby. Anecdotally: I had a big bet on War Emblem in 2002 when he took them wire-to-wire, but he wasn't a “need-to-lead” type, and he could have as easily run from off the pace and still have won it as he was much the best that day.
In normal racing, around 60 percent of races are won by horses that are positioned among the front 3 at the first call. In the Derby that figure drops to around 20 percent.
When the speedballs do go at each other then on occasion a deep closer type will come in, but the overall best profile for this particular race is a mid-pack runner that can stay in touch with the leaders and have something left for the stretch preferably with tactical speed that has a "push button" aspect to it so as to help get and maintain position while avoiding traffic problems.
As a result of the new points system for qualification into the race none of the allowed qualifying races are sprints. So sprint type speed horses have necessarily disappeared. No more can a couple of high-purse value wins at the shorter distances get a horse into the Derby. The proverbial "melt-down" race where the pace completely falls apart will from now on (I would think) be a rarer occurrence.
Andy Beyer quoted a very pertinent stat before the 2014 Derby: Since 1986, the first half mile has been run in less than 46 seconds eight times. In each of those years, stretch-runners have prevailed, most of them coming from far, far behind. Watch the half-mile time as the race unfolds you’ll have a good indication of your horse’s chances.
Last year American Pharoah ran a 45:1 at 7f when winning the Del Mar Futurity as a 2 yr old, and he pressed a 45:4 in the Arkansas Derby. The 15' Derby it was 47.34 and he was running 3rd just off the lead.
In ending here; I love horse racing. I enjoy handicapping the horses, love seeing the race unfold and knowing how it's going to shake out, and I FRG to have a winning day. So.......
May The Winners Be Yours!
Doc
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