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( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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bumped forward new page ..added R7
keeneland friday
R1 #6 epicurean (9-5)
lots of obvious here so some other things..chucking debut at kentucky downs..like woodman as dam sire as he's extreme stamina and routing first time..placed reasonably relative to his purchase price..probably odds-on
R3 #2 snow's island (20-1)
first time starter homebred with a real nice turf distance pedigree..dam was a runner and first foal to race.. gaffalione gets the mount..this one a bit hidden with trainer who has popped some big prices on the lawn in the past
R4 #3 stanchion (15-1)
R5 #3 lijana (6-1)
R7 #7 toby's heart (6-1)
R9 #4 sacred life (4-1) no rating
R10 #8 in a dream (12-1)
oaklawn
R7 #2 music app (5-2)Last edited by bleeker; 04-09-2021, 01:39 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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aqueduct
R2 #4 mo girl (8-1)
1st time starter,expensive,big pedigree and trainer vey solid (pletcher disciple)..steady works back to january capped off with a bullet 4f..if your going to send a filly a 1 1/8 on the turf first out guess it's good to have some credentials..think it's a little intriguing they'd start her off going so long
R6 #4 romp (5-2)
oaklawn
R1 #2 bellamy's roan (20-1)
R3 #2 my my munny (6-1)
R4 #4 terawatt (15-1)
R7 #1 do right (12-1)
R12 arkansas derby
#1 super stock (6-1)
all except 1 in here exiting "the rebel"..concert tour most likely winner and underlay..mine 2nd off the layoff and has a reasonable race under him off his last..was a solid 2yo so possible he could move forward here..just an average opinion ..nothing special
R13 #1 continental coins (6-1)Last edited by bleeker; 04-10-2021, 12:17 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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added another_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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added oaklawn 12..the big race today (arkansas derby)_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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keeneland
R4 #4 magic ride (10-1)
R6 #10 convection (12-1)
R7 #7 cibolian (10-1)
R9 # 8 dalida (15-1)Last edited by bleeker; 04-11-2021, 12:22 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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added R7_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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indiana.. tuesday
R8 #2 shipshape (6-1)
homebred first time starter with a really nice pedigree for an Indiana bred..speedy ky sire and out of a very productive dam who was a winner herself..solid steady works..trainer can win with debuters_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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will be making kentucky derby and oaks picks ..the latter is on friday_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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churchill downs (friday)
R2 post (11 am)
R2 #5 red hot and blue (12-1)..[2WP]
R3 #5 zainalarab (3-1)..[4W]
R4 #3 illogami (9-2) .. [4W]
R11 oaks
(fillies version of the derby , run @ 1 1/8 miles..the boys go 1 1/4 miles)
#3 clairere (5-1) .. [10W]
#9 coach (50-1) .. [2WP]
R13 #8 portilla (15-1)..[2WP]
W= WIN
P= PLACE
$30 budget (above)
$24 budget (no place bets)
$14 budget **
** just oaks
5WP #3
2WP #9
the thing I don't want to do on a day like this is drown out the bet on the oaks by betting too much on the others..not that I like the oaks any better but it is the main event..there are 5 other stakes on the card but I don't like any of them (none of those other races are stakes) ..nothing wrong with just playing the oaks either..above way you have $14 on oaks and $16 others..just guidelines of course and use your own judgement
Last edited by bleeker; 04-30-2021, 04:36 AM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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derby day
R1 post 10:30
R2 #7 cerulean (15-1)
R5 #7 last samurai (10-1)
R8 #4 defunded (6-1)
R10 #2 mind control (6-1)
R13 #5 calibrate (9-2)
R14 #7 mr sippi (3-1)
derby R12
#1 known agenda (11-1 @10:30)
just feel coming into his own off last 2 races with blinkers added..opened up in lengths last 1/8 th in both of those races at 1 1/8 miles ..was bred to be something good being by elite distance sire curlin and out of a stakes winning mare..homebred so wasn't sold privately ..couldn't ask for a better pilot in irad and that's really a good thing being he's breaking from the rail ..lots of speed and he could get a nice ground saving trip sitting off of it
#13 hidden stash (35-1 @ 11:20)
his first two career races in sprints are the kind of running lines I like to see for horses stretching out..not the obvious closers but even throughout.. followed those 2 races with wins breaking his mdn at kee and after that a oc n1x at churchill (both going 2 turns)..always like 2 turn wins at those tracks in the fall as besides NY these are the best circuits..also ny doesn't have 2 turn routes until aqueduct starts later in the year..also you know he likes the track..nothing wrong with his tampa bay races which were the first of his 3yo season..ran evenly behind a very slow pace in the bluegrass (his last start)..gets one of the 6 middle posts
which is a positive for settling into a decent position early on
66% known agenda
33% hidden stash
.Last edited by bleeker; 05-01-2021, 10:46 AM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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finished churchill minus the derby..look at that tomorrow_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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added derby picks_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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going to do a lite version of what I used to and will commit to the end of (just) del mar on 9/11..going to avoid saratoga which is extremely (at least much more) difficult.. see what happens after that.. no results.. just picks
dmr
R4 #3 carson's legacy (8-1) @ 6:33
R6 #2 goldenspa (8-1)
R8 #9 don'thinkjustdoit (10-1)
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( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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del mar (night card)
R3 #6 consternation (7-2) post 7:58
going to look at rest later_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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