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  • #4546
    Re: horse plays

    1,5 off the turf so took them down.. may replace when I see the scratches and cap it for dirt.. may land on the same one if he's going anyway.. but for now nothing
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #4547
      Re: horse plays

      replaced R1
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4548
        Re: horse plays

        Comment

        • #4549
          Re: horse plays

          Originally posted by Chamblin View Post
          thanks chamblin


          through 8 now
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #4550
            Re: horse plays

            finished
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #4551
              Re: horse plays

              churchill

              R1 #4 proudly fought (7-2)
              R2 #5 allege (3-1)

              R4 #3 core beliefs (5-1)
              R5 #9 miss eau de vie (10-1)
              R6 #8 sharp art (4-1)
              R7 #4 street to indy (5-1)

              these higher open claimers there are murder but kind of like this one


              R8 #6 hey dakota (4-1)
              R9 #3 critic (15-1)
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #4552
                Re: horse plays

                kentucky oaks (tomorrow)

                I believe there are some legit knocks on the two big oaks favorites gamine (1-1)and swiss skydiver(8-5) ..the former is coming off two monster efforts and neither were around 2 turns..her only 2 turn race she won but was disqualified wouldn't get it done here ..understand she might just be a better horse now then she was in that start but the combo of a possible bounce along with the so-so effort in her only attempt,makes her a little vulnerable to me..also she's coming back much quicker than she ever has and had to ship back to del mar after her last at saratoga..lot of travel

                swiss skydiver is coming off a huge top in the alabama and returning in 3 weeks ..her last 4 starts she returned in 5 weeks and the start before that was 6 weeks..6 starts back she returned in 4 weeks and ran the lowest figure of her career..to be a fair it was her first attempt at 2 turns in her 4th career start .. overall at short odds see some vulnerabilities


                speech (5-1) cost a lot of money for her modest pedigree and I'll still bring that into play at this point..maybe why she's been so good ..main thing though is the ashland (she won) on the brisnets was about a length faster than the bluegrass(bg) run on the same day which ss lost..yes the ashland was a 1/2 furlong shorter than the bg (1 1/16 vs 1 1/8) but she opened up 2.5 lengths in the stretch ..also she's coming off 8 weeks rest and should be a lot fresher
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #4553
                  Re: horse plays

                  saratoga


                  R1 #4 this ill defend (12-1)

                  very similar line to his last produced the best figure he's ever run.. a little more ground (1 mile vs 1 1/8 today) and he might have won


                  R2 #6 my first grammy (8-1)

                  R3 #4 thursday (20-1)

                  i find it interesting he's shipping here to try a stakes (2yo) around 2 turns on the turf off a maiden claiming sprint win at delaware.. gotta love the name


                  R4 #4 blunt force (2-1)

                  think better post and half furlong less will help


                  R5 #5 stella mars (12-1)

                  definitely cost a good amount relative to the pedigree (2yo msw turf route.. debuter) has a way above avg win early, turf pedigree.. cancel not a great turf rider but to me that's less important with a lot of newbies in the race. jock is also listed to ride the "a" part of the 1 entry (an also eligible) who I like also and the other half of that one is decent also.. check back later as I might make a switch.. I will state a final pick before first race



                  1st,3rd and 5th scheduled for turf and must be run on it to play



                  churchill.. figuring slop

                  R1 #4 matt's honey (7-2)
                  R2 #6 tipazar (6-1)
                  R4 #2 runnin' ray (9-2)
                  R5 turf probably off

                  R6 #8 sea of hope (7-2)
                  R7 #5 palazi (8-1)
                  R10 #11 girl daddy (8-1)

                  R11 #13 eel point
                  Last edited by bleeker; 09-03-2020, 02:26 PM.
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #4554
                    Re: horse plays

                    through 5 churchill
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #4555
                      Re: horse plays

                      Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                      saratoga


                      R1 #4 this ill defend (12-1)

                      very similar line to his last produced the best figure he's ever run.. a little more ground (1 mile vs 1 1/8 today) and he might have won


                      R2 #6 my first grammy (8-1)

                      R3 #4 thursday (20-1)

                      i find it interesting he's shipping here to try a stakes (2yo) around 2 turns on the turf off a maiden claiming sprint win at delaware.. gotta love the name


                      R4 #4 blunt force (2-1)

                      think better post and half furlong less will help


                      R5 #5 stella mars (12-1)

                      definitely cost a good amount relative to the pedigree (2yo msw turf route.. debuter) has a way above avg win early, turf pedigree.. cancel not a great turf rider but to me that's less important with a lot of newbies in the race. jock is also listed to ride the "a" part of the 1 entry (an also eligible) who I like also and the other half of that one is decent also.. check back later as I might make a switch.. I will state a final pick before first race



                      1st,3rd and 5th scheduled for turf and must be run on it to play



                      churchill.. figuring slop

                      R1 #4 matt's honey (7-2)
                      R2 #6 tipazar (6-1)
                      R4 #2 runnin' ray (9-2)
                      R5 turf probably off

                      races taken off turf at saratoga.. only playable race #4.. most of the time don't announce this so good time to mention that turf races are only playable on turf unless otherwise stated
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #4556
                        Re: horse plays

                        finished churchill
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #4557
                          Re: horse plays

                          added churchill 11..know it's on the main track
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment

                          • #4558
                            Re: horse plays

                            churchill.. 11am post


                            oaks write up from yesterday post 4552


                            R1 #5 financial one (2-1)

                            know it's easy to go with the chad brown big pedigree fts.. a little different this time though as it's not a 2yo race and it's a way above average field for a maiden race.. talking more with horses who've run vs other first time starters



                            R2 #6 salty as can be (10-1) half
                            R2 #9 amusing antics (8-1) half


                            2yo msw field loaded with talent.. feel these 2 may offer a little value while also having nice credentials.. 6 extremely expensive, win early.. 9 expensive relative with more of a speed pedigree on the bottom.. also shown nice moves in the morning


                            R3 #5 beautiful trauma (5-2)

                            R4 #6 ocean breeze (2-1)


                            R5 #4 miss malibu (8-1)


                            the filly edition of R2.. great pedigree and debut trainer.. really think she will go off lower than this



                            R6 no pick

                            literally one of the toughest allowance races I've seen.. think chad is vulnerable in here with the #5 honest mischief (2-1 favorite)but who to beat him.. nobody would surprise me


                            R7 #8 sicilia (4-1)

                            useful race at dmr off the long layoff.. like the back euro form and even though has not gone this far has a terrific pedigree to do it.. paco lopez excellent turf rider

                            R9 #7 mariafoot (20-1)
                            R10 #2 mckinzie (8-5)
                            R11 #8 monomoy girl (4-5)
                            R12 #4 speech (5-1)
                            did write -up thursday thread


                            saratoga

                            R1 #4 samborella (7-2)
                            R2 #4 skippingandajumpin (10-1)
                            R3 #4 chestertown (6-5)
                            R4 #6 halpert (5-1)





                            R6 #6 raven rocks (15-1) half
                            R6 #8 tercero (8-1) half


                            R7 #3 market alert (6-1)

                            R8 #7 morning colors (8-1)



                            R12 #4 spite (2-1)

                            probably odds on.. looks tough
                            Last edited by bleeker; 09-04-2020, 01:16 PM.
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #4559
                              Re: horse plays

                              churchill through 7.. saratoga through 4
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

                              • #4560
                                Re: horse plays

                                finished both
                                _______________________________________________
                                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                                Comment

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