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  • #4426
    Re: horse plays

    I'm posting these in 2 places so the book work on best bets has to be the same.. forgot to post R3 was a best bet here and guess you can't be fairer than he got 3rd..comment also above.. this may happen on occasion but will try to be careful about it
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #4427
      Re: horse plays

      last race is a best bet for me
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4428
        Re: horse plays

        Cash a lot of tickets, good to see you playing again.
        Money won is twice as nice as money earned
        Fast Eddie Felson

        Comment

        • #4429
          Re: horse plays

          Originally posted by captjoe388 View Post
          Cash a lot of tickets, good to see you playing again.
          nice to hear capt joe..hopefully have a good spa meet !
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #4430
            Re: horse plays

            Originally posted by bleeker View Post

            know what I said yesterday but since I am capping the whole card I'll put it up.. only best bets will be graded and will be in boldface.. haven't decided on which ones if any yet.. will post an update when I do


            saratoga

            as always scheduled turf must be on it.. muddy or sloppy go lighter or pass



            R2 #4 invest (6-1) SCRATCH

            R3 #5 uptown flirt (6-1) 3WP

            bill mott with a 2yo first time starter going 2 turns whose working fast ..not usually what I associate him with..also this one cost a lot relative to specs


            3rd by a head. @ 8-1..would have been 2nd if the tiring front runner hadn't drifted out in front of him


            R4 #3 officer hutchy (8-1) SCRATCH

            linda rice,who's off to a fast start at the meet,returns in 4 days and stretches out sprint to route ..two things she's fantastic at ..like the sprint running line also as a launching point and feel she's capable off her dirt form



            R7 #3 fierce lady (9-2)
            R8 #8 ethos (9-2)


            R9 #4 honest mischief (8-5)

            I know taking chad brown not exactly going out on a limb but I find this one interesting because I can forgive his 4 losses.. 2 slow breaks from the rail including his debut.. other 2 losing to horses who ran huge winning figures (last out and the amsterdam last year)..i know without looking the dam of this horse is something special either as a producer, runner or both (didn't take the time to look up.. going on memory)


            R10 #4 mandatory payout (15-1) 3WP



            4th @ 6-1



            (2) 12/0 [0.00] (7.0 average odds)



            [1.00] breakeven
            Last edited by bleeker; 07-23-2020, 05:57 PM.
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #4431
              Re: horse plays

              saratoga

              R2 #2 overtime olivia (5-2)

              has run a similar line to last twice prior followed by a win and 2nd by a neck.. back in approximately same time as other 2..manny franco back aboard who she missed by a nose with 2 back


              R3 #4 henni penny (12-1)

              R4 #3 cold hearted pearl (6-1)

              with some races under her and a fast track she matches up well here.. even the off track efforts not terrible including being very wide on the turn last out. jockey needs to notch wins in these types of races (cheap claimers) because up the scale he's not going to be on the best horses.. excellent is an understatement to how good the trainer is in many applicable categories



              R5 #8 no mo' spending (9-2)


              even effort vs open specials at churchill breaking from the 11 post an excellent primer.. faces ny breds today (although that's not as big a drop-off in talent as it used to be)


              R6 #7 ebony (4-1) 6W 2P

              no shot behind ridiculously slow pace last out..that was off a long layoff and should be fitter now.. kept some solid company back in europe and this should be an easier bunch..good trainer jock hookup of late and they're both top of the game anyway.. trainer solid first time blinkers.. with her pedigree this 1 3/8th's like a sprint



              R7 #2 towering gaze (5-1)

              like the cutback 7 to 5.5 especially since she was close to an honest pace.. that was start 2 and debut effort from the rail in a big field was excellent.. jose ortiz stays aboard



              R8 #9 strike that (3-1)



              R9 #2 jack and noah (1-1)



              R10 #5 operative (6-1) 6W 2P

              last turf race vs msw two back would tough vs this field of maiden claimers .. ran in an off the turf a week ago and right back.. with his pedigree claimers probably where he belongs.. huge jockey upgrade


              R10 #6 nero's fiddle (15-1) half unit


              2 horses R10
              Last edited by bleeker; 07-24-2020, 03:19 PM.
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #4432
                Re: horse plays

                through 6
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #4433
                  Re: horse plays

                  finished saratoga
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #4434
                    Re: horse plays

                    R6 best bet
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #4435
                      Re: horse plays

                      R10 going to be my other best bet
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #4436
                        Re: horse plays

                        best bets friday

                        R6 out @ 10-1
                        R10 winner $17.40/7.50






                        (4 ) risk $28/ return $59.70 [2.13] (7.7 avg odds)



                        [1.00] break-even
                        Last edited by bleeker; 07-25-2020, 12:20 AM.
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #4437
                          Re: horse plays

                          saratoga




                          R2 ex box 257

                          not something I'd normally do box 3 favs but just can't decide.. probably with avg payoff it's a double your money prop if it wins



                          R4 #5 wedontbelieveher (5-1)
                          R5 #2 big wonder (4-1)
                          R6 #5 aristocratic (6-1)


                          has won 3 times off similar running lines (I know a repeated theme with me lol) dropping a notch each time (like today).. just looked back and there was another close 3rd besides those 3 and that was his lone race up here.. drop down also


                          R7 pass



                          R7 pass


                          R8 #2 dynamax prime (8-1)
                          R9 #7 mo ready (6-1) 4WP
                          R10 #3 firenze fire (4-1)

                          R11 #3 mizzen the mark (15-1) 3W
                          R11 #7 brovia (9-2) 5W
                          Last edited by bleeker; 07-25-2020, 02:18 PM.
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment

                          • #4438
                            Re: horse plays

                            finished card ..2 best bets highlighted (actually 3 as 2 in late race)
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #4439
                              Re: horse plays

                              I'll update best bets today and yesterday on monday


                              saratoga

                              R3 #1 magical tale (50-1)

                              makes his 10th career start.. won his 3rd career start at 52-1 running a very similar line to his last in his prior race.. that time only going a half furlong further.. ran an extremely similar sprint line 5 starts back and returned in 52 days (stretched to a route) to run a decent 5th and lost by less than 5 lengths.. I know that sounds like no big deal but that was against much better horses, figure in that race could easily win this one and that race was also at saratoga.. returns in a very similar 50 days today,stretches out and as mentioned earlier ran a very similar sprint line to the one 5 back.. this jock has hit at least one big price with trainer and the latter has hit with at least one good price 2nd start with new acquisitions


                              I can understand making this ml at a glance but at there's a lot going on here if you do a little digging.. this one will surely be an overlay




                              R5 #5 hilliard (12-1)


                              2yo msw race turf sprint full of huge pedigree's and expensive auction purchases.. mine is a homebred with an above average pedigree but not up to the others

                              things I find interesting..

                              horse shares last name of the breeder.. what's he gonna name one he doesn't like after him lol


                              workouts are very (being kind) slow.. so slow makes me think this horse is fast and doesn't need a fast worktab (seen that many times before).. also possible he just is that slow


                              trainer has popped big prices with debuters on the turf
                              Last edited by bleeker; 07-26-2020, 10:52 AM.
                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

                              • #4440
                                Re: horse plays

                                added R5
                                _______________________________________________
                                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                                Comment

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