Tweet
Re: horse plays
through 8 races at meadowlands..next post after first race will finish it off
through 8 races at meadowlands..next post after first race will finish it off
-
_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
-
Re: horse plays
finished meadowlands_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
Originally posted by bleeker View Post
R2 ..last @ 11-1
R3...6th @ 6-1
R4..7th @ 11-1
R4..8th @ 40-1
R5..2nd @ 11-1
2-5 won ..exacta paid* $26 which is more than double what it should have paid
R6..7th @ 7-2
R6..4th @ 84-1
2 lengths off the winner and nice effort from way out there (10 post)
R7 ...WINNER $$3.60
won by 5 lengths
R8..last @ 7-1
R8 ..2nd @ 6-1
even money wins and exacta paid $23.40..should be more like $15 with the odds
R9..6th @ 44-1
still only lost by 3 lengths
R11... 2nd @ 3-1 ($4.80)
lost by a neck to a 23-1
R12..2nd @ 24-1 ($11.40)
exacta $81 with a 5-2 on top..this one's light
R13.. 2nd @ 8-1 ($8.00)
16-1 wins the race
I use steve crist's formula for exacta prices..he's very well known in the industry..wrote for the ny times when they covered racing,authored multiple books and was ceo of the racing form..he's also a big player and expert in bet structuring horizontal bets.pick 3's,4's,5's and 6's..has hit multiple p6's over the years..he's just flats and not harness but obviously doesn't matter to estimate exotic pricesLast edited by bleeker; 04-27-2019, 06:32 AM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
Congrats on the pic 3 Pat fan ! Me and my buddy had the pic 5 a couple times. It was a good day. Only 6 more days for the meet. Then the summer meet starts up again in June. I will also be putting some Saratoga selections up. Just wish we had fixed wagering in the states.
Tampa
2nd – TURF ONLY - Ubide is 54% ITM with Non-shipping 2L1-3s and has no other defects. +10 EP in last could indicate an improved finish today. However, Ubide is 0-55 on the lawn here in L5T. Stidham is 1-24 with Non-shipping Layoffs. Dominguez is 1-47 with DtoT types. Dacosta is 1-19 with DtoT types but also has a 58% ITM angle here and he outperforms at the final weeks of the meeting for the past five years.
Trifectas All/5,8/1 (12 bets)
3rd – I’m beginning to think the time for us to strike is in that sweet spot when we have enough data on a (relatively) new trainer to make a reliable prediction but before the sharks have had a chance to digest the same material. Johns is one. Sweezey is the other. Justin is 41% Win and 68% ITM here with Dropdowns & he has not missed the board with a TtoD + RtS in L3T and gets extra points for jockey switch off troubled RD Allen Jr. ML of 20-1 is insane.
Trifectas 2,8/All/2,8 (12 bets)
Saver Exacta Box 2,8 to cover
5th – The 2,3,6 & 9 are all par for T/E so it comes down to angles. Yanez keys the play as he is 70% ITM with No Changes.
Exacta Key Box 3/2,6,9
6th – Mr. Bennett has an IV of 0.14 with the L1-3 + UC + StR move. ML of 7-2 makes this the BET AGAINST of the Day. Only the 1 & 3 have our winning 3 + 3 profile, but Johns has no record with Long Layoffs here and Morales jumps. The smart money may be worth watching in this one.
Weighted Exacta Key Box 5/1,2,3,4 if u can make a buck this way
Pick 4 – 1-5/1,9,10/2,3,4,5/5 (60 bets)
7th – Delacour is 92% ITM with the Non-layoff 2S + Dropdown move and 75% ITM with the 2L1-3 + Dropdown move. Two angles are better than one. His regular boy is out, so Morales gets the call. This could be the Value Play of the Day or it could get hammered. Line Maker says the latter but I’m not paying that price for a ticket to ride.
Trifectas All/9/1,10 (16 bets)
9th – Deaton is 25% Win and 60% ITM with all Turf starts here & he’s a clean up batter, with 60% Win and 78% ITM in the final three weeks in L5T. He outperforms with two of three singles here.
Saver Exactas 8,10/5 to cover if alive in the Pick 4
Early Pic 4 (2-5) .... 3, 5 WT 3, 4, 6, 7 WT 7 ** WT 3, 6, 9 ... $.50 ... $12.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) .... All (6) WT 8, 9 WT 2, 5 WT 10 ... $.50 ... $12.00Comment
-
Re: horse plays
Originally posted by Jim13 View Post
glad to hear Jim (p5)... boy the break is pretty short there
gulfstream
R2 #9 liberale (4-1
R3 #5 arriverderia (2-1)
R5 #1 dynamic dancer (7-2)
R8 #5 nation usa (10-1)
0/42 maiden.. 10 lb bug (recently came in 2nd for me). ..what's not to like.. his last race fits well here and the other stuff will make him an overlay
tampa
R2 #8 three questions (8-1)
R3 #3 miss krivoruhka (5-1)
R4 #8 zoe my love (10-1)
R5 #7 igotsunshine (10-1)
R7 #9 music maker (7-5)
R8 #7 lyonaisse (10-1)
expensive relative to pedigree info.. 3rd career race.. broke rail in turf debut which is never easy and caught a freaky fast field in start 2.. adds blinkers.. capable jock and trainer
churchill downs
R5 #4 grit glory (6-1)
R6 #1 murad khan (8-1)
R7 #6 historian (2-1)
R10 #3 combustible (3-1)Last edited by bleeker; 04-27-2019, 07:13 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
finished tampa_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
June 30th the summer met starts up at TampaComment
-
Re: horse plays
added gulfstream 8_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
meadowlands
R1 #2 atomic rei (8-1)
R1 #8 steve said (12-1)
R4 #4 top flight angel (6-1)
R5 #6 vodka on the beach (3-1)
R6 #2 life happened (15-1)
R12 #7 seeing eye single (9-2)
R13 #3 major authority (7-2)Last edited by bleeker; 04-27-2019, 06:24 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
added churchill 5-7_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
finished meadowlands_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
Tampa
3rd – Carrasco Jr. is par with Plain Dropdowns. Mr. Bennett is now 28% Win and 56% ITM with all Plain Rightbacks in L4T (108 tries). Brittany Arterburn has first mount since Summer Festival 2016. I don’t think so. Nagle has no winning angles here, but they are notorious for picking up crumbs in the final weeks of the meeting with 74% ITM in L5T. Ward has all solid singles and is 57% ITM with StR + DtoT types. Uncle Dave (9) was just a few clicks over par while losing by 10 two back. Morales sticks for Johns who is well above 50% ITM with three of four singles here but is only 1-11 ITM with DtoTs. There’s too much going on for me here…
Pick 3 - 2,4,6,7,9/2,3,4,5/5 (20 bets)
5th – Great Harbor Cay (2) scratched yesterday for the protection of a SALW8, a very positive sign IMO. Darien is 26% Win with his angle and looks right but 2nd tier pilot creates some ambivalence. General Paddy (5) is in best form of career and may be there in 6th turf try. Bennett is 28% Win with Plain Rightbacks and Bonkers (6) also has cover. Guciardo is 0-29 with FBKs. Unspoiled Moments (9)? 95% of 8F Turf races are won by horses < 2 lengths off the leader at the 2nd call, so no.
Saver Trifectas 2,6/5/2,4,6,7 (6 bets)
6th – Stidham is two 56% ITM singles here and looks right for a piece. Another Nagle piece looks for a check (see R3).
Exacta Key Box 2/3,4,7
Pick 4 - 2,3,4,7/2,3/7/2,3,7,9 (32 bets)
8th – Now this is the Nagle piece that looms largest. They are 60% Win with Non-layoff Distance Change types and have that “clean up batter” angle going for them. 4-5 would be a gift and I never say such things.
$100 Win 7 for Even Money
Early Pic 4 (2-5) .... 2, 5 WT 2, 4, 6, 7, 9 WT 2 WT 2, 4, 5, 8 ... $.50 ... $20.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) .... 2, 4 WT 1, 2, 3 WT 2, 5, 7 WT 7, 9 ... $.50 ... $18.00Comment
-
Re: horse plays
oaklawn
R3 #3 foxy mischief (6-1)
R4 #2 pretty savi (6-1)
R5 #8 euro me (12-1)
R6 pass
R8 #3 peachy (5-2)
no great (if any)value here..been claimed last 3 starts and last one was a reclaim by the best claiming trainer at the track..first day out of jail drops from 16k to 12.5k..trainer 30/89 dropping off a claim and 24/67 with this jock past 60 days
tampa
R9 #2 swope (6-1)
gulfstream
R6 #2 drama in the rain (20-1)
R7 #2 augusta moon (7-2)
R8 #8 feature creature (6-1)
R11 #8 blacktop legend (2-1)
belmont
R10 (no turf..6 horse field)
exacta 4 10..probably pay about $6
lone star ..feature race 300k
#10 shotgun kowboy (12-1)Last edited by bleeker; 04-28-2019, 03:48 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
finished gulfstream and tampa (1 race only)_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
-
Re: horse plays
added oaklawn 8..probably it_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
Comment
Comment