horse plays

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

finished keeneland

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

added aqueduct 9

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

added santa anita 5 8

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

will be doing aqueduct and keeneland today..the biggest day at both meets with the wood memorial at aqueduct and the bluegrass at keeneland..both major final preps for the kentucky derby..won't be involved before the 2nd race at both which is around 1:30

[Jim13]

Re: horse plays

Saturday, April 6th



1st – Potts is 42% ITM with Plain FBKs. Tsirigotis is 46% ITM when < $9-1. McKanas has “gone straight” with Blessed at Mass, trying in last three.



DDs 3,5,6/4



2nd – Mr. Bennett is hammered at the windows with a 42% Win and 68% ITM angle here and the Quirins to back them up.



Exacta Key 4/5,8,9

Pick 3 – 4/1-6/6,8 (12 bets)



3rd – Rigattieri has been 25% Win with Plain Dropdowns and is 85% ITM with Shortenups at this meeting with 6 wins in 13 tries. All Good Times (6) beat chalky J’s Indian Charm (winner of 5 of 11 here on a fast track) in last (with Spieth up, not RD Allen Jr), along with some other tough company. Hamm sends mix messages. He used to be 18% Win with L4-8s, but is now 0-15 with same at this meeting. He employs Gallardo, who is only 3-26 with Hamm this season. Tim has favored Centeno. Caruso is 54% Win or Place with Non-layoffs on the dirt here while Silva (with a UCE) is 36% with same. Mr. Bennett has nothing going for him in this one, just Silly Factor’s (2) never miss the board record here in Oldsmar. The odds will be generous for a six horse field.



Exacta Box 3,6

Trifectas 3,6/1,2,4,5/3,6



4th – Mr. Bennett has an IV of 0.38 with FTTs. The 6 & 8, both out of the same race, were above par in that one.



See R2 Pick 3



5th – 70% of P-Ms bombs have had less than six lifetime starts. Seven-pound allowance and class drop have my antennas buzzing and Jacob outperforms with Plain Dropdowns with an IV of 1.67 with these. I’ll go long…



Exacta 3/2 and Trifectas All/3/2 (7 bets)



6th – Nations is 39% Win with Plain Shortenups (18-46) and is 6-6 ITM with these at the current meeting. I suppose favoritism could go to Ryan, and if so, Derek is 14-19 ITM with 9 Wins in that scenario, but he’s only 15% Win with Plain Shortenups. Ordinary Love (1) was an Above Par Dueler on the Turf here in 2017 and again in first start of this meeting, while almost pulling it off again in February. Scott is a noob in the Claiming Game, winning only 3 of 20 in first three tries, but ya never know.



Whether we are talking, the Guciardos or the Cheeks’ or the Yanezs’ or the Nagles (in this case), some families appear to operate as a single entity, despite which of them is credited with the win. Reid Nagle (so then Sarah) underperforms with all five singles here, however they are 50% ITM with the Layoff + StR move and Solarte (7) has an absolutely perfect %E for the stretchout. Big Lick is 24% Win here for five years running.



FYI – Nagle subscribed for the weekend (he was a past annual subscriber) and he was champing at the bit at 11PM last night looking for today’s selections. Last time I felt my hair stand up like that was when the normally docile Rory Miller was sitting in the next box over, looking like he was high on cocaine, minutes before Mambocello won and paid $42.60. The lesson was not lost on me…



$200 Weighted Exacta Box 1,6,7 and Saver Tri 1,6,7/5/1,6,7 if the 5 is not favored (to cover), otherwise $75 Weighted Exactas 1,5,6/7



7th – Pick 4 - 1,5,7/4,5,6,7/3,5/2,4,8,9 (96 bets) (I’m not Mr Pick 4…hahaha)



9th – Bennett is 7-12 Win and Place at the distance and is 24% Win with Shortenups. May win, but I can almost guarantee a blanket finish here. Rodriguez is > 55% ITM with No Change types



Exacta Box 3,5 and Saver Trifectas 3,5/1,6,10,13/3,5

Early Pic 4 (3-6) .... 2, 6 WT 2, 3, 6 WT 3, 9 WT 4, 7 ... $.50 ... $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) .... 1, 2, 6, 9 WT 4, 5, 6, 7 WT 7 ** WT 7, 9 ... $.50 ... $16.00

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

Saturday, April 6th



1st – Potts is 42% ITM with Plain FBKs. Tsirigotis is 46% ITM when < $9-1. McKanas has “gone straight” with Blessed at Mass, trying in last three.



DDs 3,5,6/4



2nd – Mr. Bennett is hammered at the windows with a 42% Win and 68% ITM angle here and the Quirins to back them up.



Exacta Key 4/5,8,9

Pick 3 – 4/1-6/6,8 (12 bets)



3rd – Rigattieri has been 25% Win with Plain Dropdowns and is 85% ITM with Shortenups at this meeting with 6 wins in 13 tries. All Good Times (6) beat chalky J’s Indian Charm (winner of 5 of 11 here on a fast track) in last (with Spieth up, not RD Allen Jr), along with some other tough company. Hamm sends mix messages. He used to be 18% Win with L4-8s, but is now 0-15 with same at this meeting. He employs Gallardo, who is only 3-26 with Hamm this season. Tim has favored Centeno. Caruso is 54% Win or Place with Non-layoffs on the dirt here while Silva (with a UCE) is 36% with same. Mr. Bennett has nothing going for him in this one, just Silly Factor’s (2) never miss the board record here in Oldsmar. The odds will be generous for a six horse field.



Exacta Box 3,6

Trifectas 3,6/1,2,4,5/3,6



4th – Mr. Bennett has an IV of 0.38 with FTTs. The 6 & 8, both out of the same race, were above par in that one.



See R2 Pick 3



5th – 70% of P-Ms bombs have had less than six lifetime starts. Seven-pound allowance and class drop have my antennas buzzing and Jacob outperforms with Plain Dropdowns with an IV of 1.67 with these. I’ll go long…



Exacta 3/2 and Trifectas All/3/2 (7 bets)



6th – Nations is 39% Win with Plain Shortenups (18-46) and is 6-6 ITM with these at the current meeting. I suppose favoritism could go to Ryan, and if so, Derek is 14-19 ITM with 9 Wins in that scenario, but he’s only 15% Win with Plain Shortenups. Ordinary Love (1) was an Above Par Dueler on the Turf here in 2017 and again in first start of this meeting, while almost pulling it off again in February. Scott is a noob in the Claiming Game, winning only 3 of 20 in first three tries, but ya never know.



Whether we are talking, the Guciardos or the Cheeks’ or the Yanezs’ or the Nagles (in this case), some families appear to operate as a single entity, despite which of them is credited with the win. Reid Nagle (so then Sarah) underperforms with all five singles here, however they are 50% ITM with the Layoff + StR move and Solarte (7) has an absolutely perfect %E for the stretchout. Big Lick is 24% Win here for five years running.



FYI – Nagle subscribed for the weekend (he was a past annual subscriber) and he was champing at the bit at 11PM last night looking for today’s selections. Last time I felt my hair stand up like that was when the normally docile Rory Miller was sitting in the next box over, looking like he was high on cocaine, minutes before Mambocello won and paid $42.60. The lesson was not lost on me…



$200 Weighted Exacta Box 1,6,7 and Saver Tri 1,6,7/5/1,6,7 if the 5 is not favored (to cover), otherwise $75 Weighted Exactas 1,5,6/7



7th – Pick 4 - 1,5,7/4,5,6,7/3,5/2,4,8,9 (96 bets) (I’m not Mr Pick 4…hahaha)



9th – Bennett is 7-12 Win and Place at the distance and is 24% Win with Shortenups. May win, but I can almost guarantee a blanket finish here. Rodriguez is > 55% ITM with No Change types



Exacta Box 3,5 and Saver Trifectas 3,5/1,6,10,13/3,5

Early Pic 4 (3-6) .... 2, 6 WT 2, 3, 6 WT 3, 9 WT 4, 7 ... $.50 ... $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) .... 1, 2, 6, 9 WT 4, 5, 6, 7 WT 7 ** WT 7, 9 ... $.50 ... $16.00

hey jim thanks again.. haven't been following results but can tell this guy's the real deal...like what he's doing

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

aqueduct

R1 #6 mo gotcha (7-2)
R2 #5 flashpackinbarbie (5-2)
R6 #1 much better (9-5)



R7 #1 nicodemus* (5-1)
R8 #1 afleet destiny* (15-1)
R11 #8 indimaaj* (10-1)


R10 wood memorial

something I wrote mid march elsewhere (scout's honor)..he's "#1 tax "in the wood..I have another thread picking game winner for a derby future (running also today in santa anita derby ..I thought this guy (tax) offered value (no pun intended ) at price he was being offered at that time..writeup below(59-1)





tax (59-1) pool 3

i'm not going against my other pick game winner but that's a ridiculous overlay on this horse.. he's a claiborne farm homebred who they foolishly let get away for a 50k tag in his 2nd start at keeneland..thus is after his first start for clm $30k he missed by a half length battling on the front end all the way around @ "6f.. his last two brisnet figures(103,102) are the equal of game winner's 103..only thing is the 103 in the remsen as a 2yo was off a ridiculously slow pace whereas the withers (102) was actually a 2-3 lengths faster than avg pace.. he's by the claiborne stallion arch
out of a giant's causeway mare which is extremely stout breeding


remember though,game winner hit that number as a 2yo in november at churchill downs up close to a scorching fast pace..so that's a different animal altogether.. but stacked up against the others I think 59-1 big overlay.. also,he's got two 1 1/8 mile races under him and those are the races he ran the big figures in.. haven't heard where he'll be going next but more than likely the wood memorial since he's based in ny and is where he ran his last two races


keeneland

my recommendation when there's two horses in a race make the total play 50%more than if you were betting 1 horse.. if odds are high on one or both maybe (in the below example) go $2 on each.. use you're own judgment

1 horse $4 win
2 horses $3 win each

R2 #10 shared legacy (20-1) *
R2 #12 camp randall (6-1)

* a FULL brother to shared belief who was a monster about 4-5 years ago.. 10/12 almost $3M..homebred so wasn't sold privately for some cheap amount.. trainer below the radar guy above average veteran jockey (graham.. 21% sprints).. slow but regular works.. good day to unveil a horse like this on the undercard of keeneland's biggest day.. if he wins they're really in the spotlight.. going to use one other besides

R3 #5 gold credit (10-1)
R3 #7 fightress (10-1)


R4 #2 the hardest way (8-1)


R5 #4 dynabee (5-1)



R6 #4 uncontested (12-1)

you're getting this ml because of the unknown trainer and local jock coming over to ride.. won the "general george" at laurel (G3) and that race fits well in here.. beat a 14 horse field on the front end (the name ironic) on a clear lead with above avg pace figures and solid final figure at 7f which is today's distance.. ran here twice before and was competitive both times



R8 #9 shamrock rose (5-2)




R9 ashland g1

#6 restless rider (5-2)


R10 bluegrass g1

#6 dream maker* (12-1)
#7 admire* (15-1)


R11

#2 choate bridge* (8-1)
#8 macabre (8-1)



santa anita

R7 #5 one bad boy (7-2)

R8 santa anita derby

just rooting for #6 game winner.. however I do think the late shift to oaklawn and having to be used that hard off the layoff may not be the best thing.. think instagrand ran huge in the gotham considering the pace.. considering what he did as a 2yo and that he cost $1.2M kind of like him vs the other two top contenders (1,3) who I think are very solid horses also.. realize ig had to ship out also prior but he got an extra week to recover vs gw.. should be a great race

R9 #9 miss flawless (6-1)




R10 santa anita hcp g1

#1 mckinzie (4-5)

no value of course... should crush them

R11 #3 the hunted (3-1)







ignore asterisk unless outside right of odds..means it's on my grade list then

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

added kee 6 8..probably finish it off next post after 2pm

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

had the number in R3 @ kee wrong ..it's #7 not #8..always double check as I do drop the ball with this every once in a while..hope to have everything done by 3:30

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

finished aqueduct and keeneland..probably look at 2nd half of santa anita later

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

added santa anita 7-9..look at 10 11 later

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

finished

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

sha tin.. gonna skip previous odds tonight

R2 #11 fortune happiness
R7 #8 mission tycoon
R8 #3 styling city
R10 #3 magnificent

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

keeneland


R3 #5 flawless bourbon (12-1)
R4 #10 roan like the wind (8-1)
R6 #8 daddy's cozy (20-1)


aqueduct

R3 #7 hampton point (20-1)
R4 #6 laura's posse (9-2)
R6 #9 five alarm robin (10-1)

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

parx


R4 #8 prodigious (20-1)

understand trainer is 0/30 this year and a very bad trainer beyond that.. might be a good thing in this case (price)as horse really fits well vs these.. claimed two starts back this trainer is 3/14 with horses making their 2nd start for him with an avg price of $26



will rogers


R7 #6 shesamineshaftbabe (3-1)

big drop remington park to will rogers.. what she did at the former should make her tough in here and they're not risking her via the claim.. think more like 3-2



R9 #6 franklee fun (6-1)


a starter alw 7500 at will rogers probably better than your avg alw n1x there.. last race at that level (previous race) works well here


mahoning


R9 #7 lucy's sweet boy (4-1)