horse plays

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

added oaklawn 9

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Re: horse plays

added santa anita 7 9

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Re: horse plays

parx monday


R1 #4 march screamer (2-1)

broke maiden last out in his 5th career start.. it was the first time blinkers and fast track happened at the same time with this horse.. last out was at 7f and he was within 3 lengths at the first 2 calls.. today its mile 70 yards and got me thinking about the runner up in the florida derby at 71-1.. his last race was 7f also.. this one would have to travel 260 yards less to the wire.. unfortunately it will be at much lower odds


R4 #7 he's incredible (3-1) *
R5 #7 powerfully built (2-1)
R10 #1 lori's folly (30-1)*



mahoning valley


probably more money bet on a favorite in 1 race at happy valley then a whole card here lol

R1 #4 empiremeister (8-1)
R2 #3 lil' princessnellie (2-1)
R5 #1 heatherfromphoenx (3-1)
R7 #7 cascabria (5-1)
R8 #10 classic brew (8-1)

last time he came off a 53 day layoff 2 starts back he ran into a monster who won by 9 lengths and was about the same amount of lengths faster than par.. he ran an even 3rd and a repeat of that effort would do very well vs these... the 2nd place horse in that race came back to win next start and mine came back to run 2nd before being laid off (same race).. coming off about an 110 day layoff for this race

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

did mahoning valley

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

sha tin.. wednesday 7:15am est

(payout odds last 4 races) left most recent

99 odds = over 100-1.. horses often go off 150/200-1 or higher there

R1 #3 lotus breeze (65/94/43/16)
R2 #3 travel successor (29/59/xx/xx)
R2 #7 run moochi (4.9/32/16/99)
R3 pass
R4 #7 let's come back (24/36/91/14)


R5 #1 travel first (79/47/99/81)
R6 pass
R7 pass
R8 # 8 dragon commander (99/99/99)

[Jim13]

Re: horse plays

Wednesday, April 3rd
Tampa

1st – Trifecta 6/2/4

2nd – RD Allen Jr. is now 2-25 since returning.

Trifectas All/6/2,3,8

3rd – Trifecta 8/5/1

4th – KOC is 48% Win (13-27) when the favorite in this situation. Kathleen is also 48% ITM with all 2TS + 2TT types. My quirky friend from Oxnard, California, Margaret Wetherington is 7-14 ITM with Plain Shortenups (with 4 Wins). She’s always overlooked. Raymond is 14-225 with Shortenups (and most of those were in Sprints on the Dirt). 2-1?

Win 10
Trifectas 10/9/3
Saver Superfectas 10/3,9/8,12/3,9
Weighted DDs 10/1,3,4

5th – Ward is 83% ITM with Plain Dropdowns and 51% ITM with Plain Distance changes. Dorothy (3) is like that girlfriend who just isn’t doing it for you anymore. She’s got something, but not what you want.

Exacta Box 1,3,4

7th – Weighted 3,4,6/7

8th – Delacour is 41% Win and 81% ITM with UCEs. He’s 85% ITM when the favorite in Music Maker’s (7) situation and 34% Win. MM appears to be the well-intended, but Sunday’s FTS + FTT bomb, must leave one guessing.

Saver Trifectas 9,10/7/2,5,9,10 (6 bets)

9th – Layoff + Dropdown Cerro (7) and a lack of any solid MATP data, make this one unplayable.

Pass

10th – Dini has hit the board in 10 of last 16, after poor, 15 of 40 ITM showing prior to the past month. I gotta believe he’s gonna continue to make up for lost time. Over the years, I’ve spun a few yarns, never just out of thin air, but perhaps favoring some facts over others, in the interest of telling a nice, tight, story. Suarez, aboard Penny Rose (8) hasn’t had a mount on the grass in five months. Suarez, aboard Penny Rose (8) was 5 for 6 Win or Place in last six on the grass. Create your own little narrative tale…

Trifecta Box 2,3,8,9

Early Pic 4 (3-6) .... 5, 8 WT 1, 9, 10 WT 1, 3, 4, 8 WT 9** ... $.50 ... $12.00
Late Pic 4 (7-10) .... 3, 4 WT 2, 5, 7, 10 WT 6, 7 WT 2, 3 ... $.50 ... $16.00

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

finished sha tin

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

Wednesday, April 3rd
Tampa

1st – Trifecta 6/2/4

2nd – RD Allen Jr. is now 2-25 since returning.

Trifectas All/6/2,3,8

3rd – Trifecta 8/5/1

4th – KOC is 48% Win (13-27) when the favorite in this situation. Kathleen is also 48% ITM with all 2TS + 2TT types. My quirky friend from Oxnard, California, Margaret Wetherington is 7-14 ITM with Plain Shortenups (with 4 Wins). She’s always overlooked. Raymond is 14-225 with Shortenups (and most of those were in Sprints on the Dirt). 2-1?

Win 10
Trifectas 10/9/3
Saver Superfectas 10/3,9/8,12/3,9
Weighted DDs 10/1,3,4

5th – Ward is 83% ITM with Plain Dropdowns and 51% ITM with Plain Distance changes. Dorothy (3) is like that girlfriend who just isn’t doing it for you anymore. She’s got something, but not what you want.

Exacta Box 1,3,4

7th – Weighted 3,4,6/7

8th – Delacour is 41% Win and 81% ITM with UCEs. He’s 85% ITM when the favorite in Music Maker’s (7) situation and 34% Win. MM appears to be the well-intended, but Sunday’s FTS + FTT bomb, must leave one guessing.

Saver Trifectas 9,10/7/2,5,9,10 (6 bets)

9th – Layoff + Dropdown Cerro (7) and a lack of any solid MATP data, make this one unplayable.

Pass

10th – Dini has hit the board in 10 of last 16, after poor, 15 of 40 ITM showing prior to the past month. I gotta believe he’s gonna continue to make up for lost time. Over the years, I’ve spun a few yarns, never just out of thin air, but perhaps favoring some facts over others, in the interest of telling a nice, tight, story. Suarez, aboard Penny Rose (8) hasn’t had a mount on the grass in five months. Suarez, aboard Penny Rose (8) was 5 for 6 Win or Place in last six on the grass. Create your own little narrative tale…

Trifecta Box 2,3,8,9

Early Pic 4 (3-6) .... 5, 8 WT 1, 9, 10 WT 1, 3, 4, 8 WT 9** ... $.50 ... $12.00
Late Pic 4 (7-10) .... 3, 4 WT 2, 5, 7, 10 WT 6, 7 WT 2, 3 ... $.50 ... $16.00

thanks jim..try to look it over when I do mine tomorrow

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

tampa bay

R2 #2 quickluckycoco (7-2)
R3 #8 school song (5-2)*
R4 #8 top mission (8-1)*
R7 #3 desert spring (7-2)
R8 #2 vaunt (4-1)
R9 #7 cerro (2-1)

looks like this one bought from the david jacobsen clearance sale.. hasn't race in 10 months and trainer is the owner.. only would have to be 70% of what he was to beat this field..we'll see if this 9yo has anything left in the tank.. maybe the below average trainer and 7lb bug rider will hide things a bit mutuelly


R10 #2 valentine nibbles (9-2)*

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

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keeneland

R1 #11 nurse maggie sue (7-2)

2nd choice and probable favorite if ward doesn't draw in with #13 nayibeth.. not a workout person but for a 2yo in april to go 46.2 bg
1/29 at keeneland and jose ortiz jumps aboard to ride says something ..nothing fancy this race, just top 2 even from the extreme outside posts

R3 #5 storm ryder (15-1)

don't get this ml.. being to swayed by the troubled trip 3yo debut.. his two 2yo races as bad as they look would translate well to this level of competition msw-mcl 50k to mcl 30k today.. he's a calumet homebred by oxbow which is one of there's.. the dam has had 4 winners from 5 starters and nothing special amongst them.. drop doesn't bother me.. solid gaffalione rides

R4 #8 man of blues (20-1)
R5 #2 instilled regard (6-5)

not getting fancy here.. chad should blow them up @ odds on.. #5 frankincense (20-1) another ridiculous ml imo.. lightly raced homebred son of monster frankel ($223k stud fee.. euro conversion) who won his last two with a big closing kick.. 3rd place finisher in both of these races came back to win and possible others further back may have also.. with that pedigree could be anything going forward


R6 #1 ulele (4-1)

R7 #11 strike silver (12-1) half
R7 #1 yes I am free (10-1) half


R8 #4 trophy doll (5-1)

santa anita

R6 #3 urban light (8-1)
R7 #1 hard to come home (6-1)

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

finished keeneland.. it's a 3pm post

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

added santa anita 6 7

[Jim13]

Re: horse plays

Tampa
Friday, April 5th

1st – Guciardo has an IV of 2.5 with Plain Shortenups and The Great Kath (6) is closest to par.

Win 6

DDs 6/3,6,7

2nd – RD Allen Jr is now 2-30 since return. At 54, comebacks are tough…

3rd – The focal point here is Ryan, as he’s 69% ITM with Plain TtoD + Dropdown types in 31 tries.

Exacta Key 5,7/1 and Saver Trifectas 2,4/1,5,7/1,5,7

4th - Aquemini (6) was clear for the show after +4 Final Fraction in a marathon that averaged 12 second furlongs in the later stages. That’s consecutive big efforts now. FBK does not surprise. Juan is 55% ITM with FBKs. He’s also 71% ITM with Shortenups. Lynch doesn’t jump. He’s out of town for the weekend.

Conditional $50 ATB 6 for 7/2

5th - Las Ana (2) made a -15 final fraction after defeat to a maiden who was beaten in last three by a combined 36 lengths. I’m dismissing any others out of the same race also. On the other hand, nothing figures to be in front at the finish.

Pass

6th – KOC will take the money, but the value will not be there.

Pass

7th – For a race with a bunch of veteran $16K claimers, Lord Barna (3) (9-2) looks wrong. Five out of the colt’s last were N2Ls or N3Ls and the race went -10.

Saver Pick 3 - 4,5,7/1,5,8,9/7 (12 bets)

8th – Stidham has the best record of getting it done with younger horses and he’s outperforming with three singles here.

Win 6 and DDs 6/7 (maybe a Twitter (@tamselections) play, we’ll see)

9th – Bourban Tan’s (7) total energy in last three were 185-196-180. Today’s par is 172. Harty is 30% Win with Plain Starters and 23% Win with Dropdowns. Ferrer is up for the absent Lynch, but Harty and Ferrer union is rare indeed. Only twice in L4T with a $76-1 bomb in there. 4/5 appears more like it today.

Win 7

Early Pic 4 (2-5) .... 3, 6 WT 2, 5, 7 WT 2, 3, 4, 5 WT 2, 7 ... $.50 ... $24.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) .... 4, 7, 9 WT 4, 6, 7 WT 1, 6 WT 7 ** $.50 ... $9.00

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

Tampa
Friday, April 5th

1st – Guciardo has an IV of 2.5 with Plain Shortenups and The Great Kath (6) is closest to par.

Win 6

DDs 6/3,6,7

2nd – RD Allen Jr is now 2-30 since return. At 54, comebacks are tough…

3rd – The focal point here is Ryan, as he’s 69% ITM with Plain TtoD + Dropdown types in 31 tries.

Exacta Key 5,7/1 and Saver Trifectas 2,4/1,5,7/1,5,7

4th - Aquemini (6) was clear for the show after +4 Final Fraction in a marathon that averaged 12 second furlongs in the later stages. That’s consecutive big efforts now. FBK does not surprise. Juan is 55% ITM with FBKs. He’s also 71% ITM with Shortenups. Lynch doesn’t jump. He’s out of town for the weekend.

Conditional $50 ATB 6 for 7/2

5th - Las Ana (2) made a -15 final fraction after defeat to a maiden who was beaten in last three by a combined 36 lengths. I’m dismissing any others out of the same race also. On the other hand, nothing figures to be in front at the finish.

Pass

6th – KOC will take the money, but the value will not be there.

Pass

7th – For a race with a bunch of veteran $16K claimers, Lord Barna (3) (9-2) looks wrong. Five out of the colt’s last were N2Ls or N3Ls and the race went -10.

Saver Pick 3 - 4,5,7/1,5,8,9/7 (12 bets)

8th – Stidham has the best record of getting it done with younger horses and he’s outperforming with three singles here.

Win 6 and DDs 6/7 (maybe a Twitter (@tamselections) play, we’ll see)

9th – Bourban Tan’s (7) total energy in last three were 185-196-180. Today’s par is 172. Harty is 30% Win with Plain Starters and 23% Win with Dropdowns. Ferrer is up for the absent Lynch, but Harty and Ferrer union is rare indeed. Only twice in L4T with a $76-1 bomb in there. 4/5 appears more like it today.

Win 7

Early Pic 4 (2-5) .... 3, 6 WT 2, 5, 7 WT 2, 3, 4, 5 WT 2, 7 ... $.50 ... $24.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) .... 4, 7, 9 WT 4, 6, 7 WT 1, 6 WT 7 ** $.50 ... $9.00

thanks jim

[bleeker]

Re: horse plays

aqueduct


R2 #6 quasar (6-1)
R9 #7 lough name mona (3-1)*

* must be turf..scheduled on it now but may change with weather





keeneland

R1 #1 social circle (3-1)
R2 #9 lady pauline (2-1)

wesley ward fts with an impeccable pedigree.. dam won 16/22 races and over $500k..more than half of those in puerto rico but did win and place in graded stakes over here.. half sibling lady aurelia won over 800k and broke her maiden in this type of race by over 7 lengths first time out.. went on to ascot to win her 2nd start which is an amazing feat.. this one's by a win early speed sire also (munnings).. researched this info and not just rewritten from a publicatio




R3 #1 amos (8-1)

outside of favorite #2 golden curl (7-5) this is a weak field.. think mine will be <= 4-1


R4 #10 negrita (8-1)


R5 #8 western trouble (5-1)


R6 #7 blip sails bye (8-1)

like this name for a first time starter.. lots of credentials though


R7 #5 fast accurate (15-1)

ridiculous morning line


R8 #4 frolic more (12-1)

allowance race restricted to 3yo at keeneland is more like a stakes race.. they're going to be betting the expensive lightly raced big trainer horses.. this guy has a nice body of work underneath him and toss the last race.. bad post, horrible trip.. sets up nice and has route experience and correct running style to benefit from what figures to be a contentious pace.. inside posts an advantage in keeneland routes





R9

#1 the black album (10-1) half
#6 dunph (12-1) half



R10 #4 fuel the bern (9-2)



santa anita


R5 #4 sunny dale (12-1)
R8 #9 foray (6-1)