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  • #2911
    Re: horse plays

    Originally posted by bleeker View Post
    sha tin... 1st post 12:45am

    (xx, xx, xx, xx) odds last 4.. left most recent

    R1 #2 the sylph (6.7/35/99/23)
    R3 #8 nashashuk (4.7/19/28/4)
    R4 #10 fortune happiness (44/51/xx/xx)
    R5 #7 iron bravo (61/24/xx/xx)
    R6 #6 eagle (8.7/37/11/3.4)
    R7 #5 winning faith (17/xx/8.6/7.5)
    R8 #6 smart leader (11/6.9/3.3/24)
    R9 #12 ultimate glory (10/40/37/21)
    R10 #12 kiram (38/30/17/61)

    (odds)
    avg field size around 12
    top 3 share place money


    R1 3rd (41) 1 1/4 lengths off winner
    R3 10th (24)
    R4 4th (42) 99-1 3rd
    R5 12th (106) yes that's 106-1 lol
    R6 6th (13) 4.5 lengths off winner
    R7 5th (38) < 1 length from winner
    R8 3rd (2.8)
    R9 3rd (9)
    R10 4th (9) 1.5 lengths from winner/neck 3rd




    going to look at tomorrow morning's card... happy valley @ 7:15am
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #2912
      Re: horse plays

      happy valley 7:15am

      (last 4 odds).. subtract 1 to get actual odds as these are payout numbers


      R1 #9 chaparral star (39/9.7/30/7.7)
      R1 #10 spinning dancer (25/22/48/28)

      2 horses.. not a mistake

      R2 #7 royal racer (20/7.3/99*/63)

      *2nd by a head at triple digits 3 back ..it's possible


      R3 #8 this is class (28/12/79/25)

      R4 pass


      R5 #1 giant turtle (29/11/11/10)

      R6 #4 joyful union (16/5.9/xx/xx)

      R7 pass

      R8 #11 last kingdom (7.6/9.4/8.1/5.5)
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #2913
        Re: horse plays

        I still can't believe the handle here !!! Amazing amount of money!!!

        Comment

        • #2914
          Re: horse plays

          Also nice winners Bleeker!!!

          Comment

          • #2915
            Re: horse plays

            Tampa handicapper by buddy follows selections-
            Wednesday, March 27th



            IT’S “BET AGAINST” WEDNESDAY!

            Rarely are so many distinguished bet against types observed on the same card.

            Lay in or miss out!



            1st – Padilla’s is 0-27 with StRs and 0-7 with 2nd off the Long Layoff. Bet against Racinrosemary (6) (9-2).



            Saver Pick 3 - 1-5/1,5,7/4 (15 bets) to cover



            2nd – Mr. Bennett has an IV of 0.58 with 2L + No Class Change Types. Bet against Game Lad (2) (2-1).



            Pick 3 – 1,5,7/2,5,7/6,8 (18 bets)



            3rd – Hendry has an IV of 0.48 with Non-layoffs on the dirt. Bet against Don’t Charge It (3) (7-2).



            Exacta Key Box 4/2,5,7

            Pick 4 – 2,4,5,7/6,8/1-6/8 (48 bets)



            4th – Stidham is 2-33 with Non-shipping L1-3s. Bet against Good Marks (1).



            $100 Weighted Trifectas 6,8/1,3,4,5/6,8

            Saver Exacta 6,8 to cover



            5th – Carrasco Jr. is winless in 11 tries with firsters on the dirt. Bet against Princess Miley (7).



            See R3 Pick 4



            6th – Motion has two Non-shipping L1-3s and he’s 1-32 with these. Stidham also has a Non-shipping L1-3 and he’s 2-33 with these. Bet against #s 4,5 & 6. Caveat emptor: Motion is 5-16 Win with UCEs.



            Exacta Key Box 8/1,7,9

            Saver Trifectas 1,7,8/4,6,9/1,7,8



            7th – Weighted DDs All/4



            8th – Raymond is 6% Win with Shortenups and 5% with Non-layoffs on the Turf. Bet against Wicked Boy (1).



            Saver Exactas 5,10,11/4



            9th – DDs 5,6,7/5



            10th – KOC is 3% with FTS + FTT types. Bet against Zumbya (9).



            Saver Trifectas 1-4,6-8,10/5/1,6,7 to cover (24 bets)





            Mr Pick 4's Daily Plays for 03/27

            Back in the 70's, I was introduced, first handed, to the phenomena of a dog's revenge after an encounter with a porcupine. After sitting on him and plucking the quills with a pair of pliers, I was certain he had learned a very valuable lesson. But, 2 nights later, he lived up to being a dumbass dog and did it again..... Now. we all know that dogs can be very smart, and maybe sooner or later, leave those stupid quilled demons alone, however, one would figure that humans have enough common senseto exit the same type of punishment a helluva lot sooner. Time will tell ....Mr Pick 4 3-2 ...The TBDH 0-5 ....

            Early Pic 4 (3-6) .... 4, 5, 7 WT 1, 6, 8 WT 1, 5 WT 1, 4 ... $.50 ... $18.00

            Late Pic 4 (7-10) .... 2, 5 WT 4, 5, 9, (11) WT 6** WT 1, 5, 6, 10 $.50 ... $12.00 (16.00)

            Best Bet **

            Comment

            • #2916
              Re: horse plays

              He has some pretty good stats my buddy uses

              Comment

              • #2917
                Re: horse plays

                thanks jim ..best day I've had there and with a couple of nice price winners to boot...2 other single digits in addition so 4 through the first 6 races.. yeah they do around $18M US dollar on average per race..that's more than a whole card at saratoga which is really amazing.. racing out there is like the NFL over here..getting to share in the place money for 3rd nice also unless you come in top 2 lol.. it's a great product and love capping it.. twice a week a nice break from the routine of domestic tracks.. you can hit mega-bombs there with those super size fields and pools but you have to be patient

                like what your friends handicapper does.. I use impact values for post positions and running style.. for trainers I just look at roi's relative to their win% with certain angles.. lots of the top guys are over bet in certain situations and that's good to know
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #2918
                  Re: horse plays

                  tampa bay


                  R8 #1 wicked boy (3-1)
                  R9 #5 j's flashy halo (2-1)
                  R10 #6 duke of monroe (4-1)
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #2919
                    Re: horse plays

                    just a little note that saturday is a huge racing day.. dubai world cup day has 9 races with $35M in purses including the $12M dubai world cup.. horses from all over the world will be competing
                    ... i will be rating these races small medium and large and think they will be mostly smaller plays but see how they look.. don't want to get hurt too bad here as they have euro style pp's but enough info to make some decisions.. first post is 7:45 am


                    gulfstream kicks off they're biggest card of the year at 11:30..7 stakes races including the florida derby which goes as the last race on the card.. weather supposed to be good so should be a great day of betting!
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #2920
                      Re: horse plays

                      Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                      happy valley 7:15am

                      (last 4 odds).. subtract 1 to get actual odds as these are payout numbers


                      R1 #9 chaparral star (39/9.7/30/7.7)
                      R1 #10 spinning dancer (25/22/48/28)

                      2 horses.. not a mistake

                      R2 #7 royal racer (20/7.3/99*/63)

                      *2nd by a head at triple digits 3 back ..it's possible


                      R3 #8 this is class (28/12/79/25)

                      R4 pass


                      R5 #1 giant turtle (29/11/11/10)

                      R6 #4 joyful union (16/5.9/xx/xx)

                      R7 pass

                      R8 #11 last kingdom (7.6/9.4/8.1/5.5)


                      (odds)
                      (subtract 1 for actual odds)
                      top 3 split place money

                      winners in us dollars for $2 bet

                      R1 #9 WINNER $$7.80
                      R1 #10 LAST (39)
                      R2 WINNER $$19.60
                      R3 WINNER $$24.00
                      R4 PASS
                      R5.. 9th (16)
                      R6 WINNER $$8.40
                      R7 PASS
                      R8 .. 2nd by a head (10)
                      Last edited by bleeker; 03-27-2019, 08:44 PM.
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #2921
                        Re: horse plays

                        gulfstream

                        R1 #3 blue jean kitten (2-1)
                        R3 #6 city roc (12-1)*
                        R4 #6 she'll do (6-1)
                        R6 #6 purple girl (3-1) *


                        R8 #8 saffira (6-1)
                        R11 #7 r carribbean queen (8-1)

                        fascinated that irad would ride this horse..claimed in his debut last out by a below avg trainer..broke slow and did little in that race..this is about the worst surrounding cast of jockeys i've ever seen at a major track ..probably be bet just cause he's riding





                        oaklawn

                        R3 #3 awesome power (3-1)* 333
                        R4 #3 reef's destiny (5-1) *
                        R5 #3 devine desire (5-1)
                        R8 #9 ransomed (5-1)


                        turfway park


                        R4 #4 plans to prosper (5-2)
                        R8 #5 confection fortune (9-2) *
                        Last edited by bleeker; 03-28-2019, 05:47 PM.
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #2922
                          Re: horse plays

                          finished
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment

                          • #2923
                            Re: horse plays

                            added turfway 4 8
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #2924
                              Re: horse plays

                              Bleeker I am going to try to handicap Dubai today for tomorrow morning, they usually have some decent payouts there. I'll post if anything really sticks out. Jim

                              Comment

                              • #2925
                                Re: horse plays

                                Tampa

                                1 st – Scott’s claim was above par in first two tries. Three out of that last race ran 1-2-3 on March 16th in Race 8. Out of the previous start, Princess Livia and Foxy Shot came back to run 1-3. Just off the page is Nora’s Drama’s (6) debut last spring, a 98 in a dash. Today’s par is 94. Last two were par. Another chance.



                                Pick 3 - 5,6/All/3



                                3rd – Saver Exactas 5,7,9/3 to cover



                                4th – Perfect Joe (8) was par for total energy in last four. Camacho sticks. Needs only another par finish to have picture taken.



                                Exacta Key Box 8/1,3

                                Saver Trifecta 8/6,7/1,3



                                5th – Caruca (10) returns to the lawn and was above par in last two on the weeds. Rodriguez is 56% ITM with Plain DtoT types. Ashley’s Rose (2) shortens up going +18, +3 above today’s par in last. She has a clean record any way you slice it.



                                DDs 2,10/2,4,7

                                Saver Trifectas 2,10/3,5,8/2,10



                                6th – Trifectas 2,4,7/3,5,6/2,4,7



                                9th – Vitsal (7) was an APD as a 3YO and been knocking around the big leagues. Must give a piece back on a FIRM turf course. Faction Cat (8) drops in class on the Rightback (you don’t see that very often). Thomas is always trying with Long Layoffs and 2TTs.



                                Exacta Box 7,8,9



                                Mr. Pick Four’s Surrogate’s Selections for March 29th



                                Early Pick 4 - $0.50 All/3,9/8**/2,10 $16.00



                                Late Pick 4 - $0.50 2,7/3,6,8/5,6,10/8,9 $18.00



                                Best Bet

                                Comment

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