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Kobalt Tools 400 Post Practice Betting Notes
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – Jimmie Johnson was the easy 7-to-1 favorite coming into this week's Kobalt Tools 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and based on the way he practiced during Saturday's final sessions, bettors can expect those odds to be long gone when re-adjusted by the sports books. The four-time Vegas winner showed speed in mock qualifying trim on Friday, posting the third-fastest speed. He qualified fifth and was fourth and seventh fastest, respectively, on Saturday.
The biggest indicator that Johnson will be flexing his Vegas muscles again Sunday was that he had the best 10-consecutive lap average speeds in the final session when every team was trying to find the most speed possible on long runs. Las Vegas races have always been about those who are faster than others on the latter half of green-flag runs, and the 10-consecutive lap average is the best barometer of all to show who will be best in those situations.
Most teams are using new chassis this week, but Johnson is using the same car that finished sixth at Kansas last season. Dale Earnhardt Jr., who was ninth fastest in the final session, is using the same chassis that finished third in the season finale at Homestead last season.
However, it's apparent that everything from last season means little in 2014. There is no better example than looking at the three drivers in the Joe Gibbs Racing stable. Last season they combined to win on seven of the 11 1.5-mile tracks, and they were fast in every practice leading to those wins. During practice sessions on Friday and Saturday, the JGR cars looked lost and unexpectedly slow.
Denny Hamlin had the fastest lap among the JGR cars, but it was only 16th best among all the cars during happy hour. Last year's Vegas winner Matt Kenseth could only muster the 19th-fastest lap, while 2009 Vegas winner Kyle Busch came in 25th fastest. The Gibbs cars all look like they're in for a very mediocre day, so there will be plenty of value opportunities presented because the odds and matchups won't be moved enough by the books by the start of tomorrow's race.
For instance, Kevin Harvick opened -115 over Hamlin in a driver matchup at the Golden Nugget sports book before the practices, but now that we have a better idea at what might happen, that price is off by about 75 cents. Harvick is super strong, No. 3 on our chart, while Hamlin is off expectations and way down to about 20th on our chart (if it went that far).
There will be extreme value all over Las Vegas sports books on Saturday when the matchup numbers are reposted, mainly because several places simply don't know how to equate the true value of what happened in practice to an actual number. Most books don't offer matchups on a regular basis, but they came out this week with Super Bowl-style props because the race is in town.
Kenseth (8/1), Busch (10/1) and Hamlin (12/1) were all considered favorites to win. To have all three not make our top-10 list following final practice is a big deal. I can't remember the last time that has happened, if ever. All three cars are now good bet-againsts.
I came into the week liking the Penske Racing duo of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, in that order, and I haven't wavered from that opinion much, even knowing Johnson has the best car. They start from the front row and should find themselves around the top five all race. I still like Keselowski to win the race, though, admittedly, a little less now because of Johnson.
The big wild card on Sunday will be the pair of Michael Waltrip drivers, Clint Bowyer (35/1) and Brian Vickers (50/1). Both cars were extremely fast in every practice session, almost as if they stole JGR's 1.5-mile mojo. MWR cars didn't win a race on 1.5-mile tracks last season, though Martin Truex Jr. had been close the past three seasons. Bowyer didn't win a race anywhere last season, and Vickers only won at the one-mile flat layout at New Hampshire. Both present probably the best value in odds to win and matchups on the board.
Another driver that has extreme value is Jamie McMurray at 80-to-1, but that's still a hard sell just because it's hard to trust Ganassi Racing cars. We were in the same situation last week at Phoenix when both McMurray and rookie teammate Kyle Larson looked outstanding. McMurray maintained a good finish (10th) while Larson faded.
The driver that could sneak up on everyone Sunday is Kasey Kahne (13/1), who finished with the fourth-fastest lap in happy hour, as well as the third best 10-consecutive lap average. He might have had the best car last season when he finished runner-up to Kenseth. He could be very good this week, making him a driver to stay away from betting against in any matchup.
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – Jimmie Johnson was the easy 7-to-1 favorite coming into this week's Kobalt Tools 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and based on the way he practiced during Saturday's final sessions, bettors can expect those odds to be long gone when re-adjusted by the sports books. The four-time Vegas winner showed speed in mock qualifying trim on Friday, posting the third-fastest speed. He qualified fifth and was fourth and seventh fastest, respectively, on Saturday.
The biggest indicator that Johnson will be flexing his Vegas muscles again Sunday was that he had the best 10-consecutive lap average speeds in the final session when every team was trying to find the most speed possible on long runs. Las Vegas races have always been about those who are faster than others on the latter half of green-flag runs, and the 10-consecutive lap average is the best barometer of all to show who will be best in those situations.
Most teams are using new chassis this week, but Johnson is using the same car that finished sixth at Kansas last season. Dale Earnhardt Jr., who was ninth fastest in the final session, is using the same chassis that finished third in the season finale at Homestead last season.
However, it's apparent that everything from last season means little in 2014. There is no better example than looking at the three drivers in the Joe Gibbs Racing stable. Last season they combined to win on seven of the 11 1.5-mile tracks, and they were fast in every practice leading to those wins. During practice sessions on Friday and Saturday, the JGR cars looked lost and unexpectedly slow.
Denny Hamlin had the fastest lap among the JGR cars, but it was only 16th best among all the cars during happy hour. Last year's Vegas winner Matt Kenseth could only muster the 19th-fastest lap, while 2009 Vegas winner Kyle Busch came in 25th fastest. The Gibbs cars all look like they're in for a very mediocre day, so there will be plenty of value opportunities presented because the odds and matchups won't be moved enough by the books by the start of tomorrow's race.
For instance, Kevin Harvick opened -115 over Hamlin in a driver matchup at the Golden Nugget sports book before the practices, but now that we have a better idea at what might happen, that price is off by about 75 cents. Harvick is super strong, No. 3 on our chart, while Hamlin is off expectations and way down to about 20th on our chart (if it went that far).
There will be extreme value all over Las Vegas sports books on Saturday when the matchup numbers are reposted, mainly because several places simply don't know how to equate the true value of what happened in practice to an actual number. Most books don't offer matchups on a regular basis, but they came out this week with Super Bowl-style props because the race is in town.
Kenseth (8/1), Busch (10/1) and Hamlin (12/1) were all considered favorites to win. To have all three not make our top-10 list following final practice is a big deal. I can't remember the last time that has happened, if ever. All three cars are now good bet-againsts.
I came into the week liking the Penske Racing duo of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, in that order, and I haven't wavered from that opinion much, even knowing Johnson has the best car. They start from the front row and should find themselves around the top five all race. I still like Keselowski to win the race, though, admittedly, a little less now because of Johnson.
The big wild card on Sunday will be the pair of Michael Waltrip drivers, Clint Bowyer (35/1) and Brian Vickers (50/1). Both cars were extremely fast in every practice session, almost as if they stole JGR's 1.5-mile mojo. MWR cars didn't win a race on 1.5-mile tracks last season, though Martin Truex Jr. had been close the past three seasons. Bowyer didn't win a race anywhere last season, and Vickers only won at the one-mile flat layout at New Hampshire. Both present probably the best value in odds to win and matchups on the board.
Another driver that has extreme value is Jamie McMurray at 80-to-1, but that's still a hard sell just because it's hard to trust Ganassi Racing cars. We were in the same situation last week at Phoenix when both McMurray and rookie teammate Kyle Larson looked outstanding. McMurray maintained a good finish (10th) while Larson faded.
The driver that could sneak up on everyone Sunday is Kasey Kahne (13/1), who finished with the fourth-fastest lap in happy hour, as well as the third best 10-consecutive lap average. He might have had the best car last season when he finished runner-up to Kenseth. He could be very good this week, making him a driver to stay away from betting against in any matchup.