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First off Happy Mothers Day! We should always treat our Mom's, wives, daughter's, and sisters with respect every day. Still the same I hope everyone takes some time and spends it with the Women who make you go.
Final Thoughts on the Derby:
If you were disappointed with the payoffs in yesterday's Derby, join the club…not your typical 20-horse field payoffs by any means and none this low in over 30 years. However if you're a grinder like myself you just get up the next day and go back at it.
Last year’s 2 year-old champ, Nyquist, remains undefeated in 8 starts, putting on a performance, indeed, fit of a champion, holding off a late charging Exaggerator who has come close but has never defeated Nyquist in 4 previous starts. This sets up for an exciting and intriguing rematch in the Preakness Stakes in two weeks. My Index had three of the top four horses with Nyquest in as the B Rank.
Once again, California-based horses completed the Exacta as they did last year. Gun Runner ran a gutsy third prevailing over Mohaymen and the late charging Suddenbreaking news after chasing a pretty swift but unpressured pace that was :45+ and 1:10+ and validating that his success in Louisiana was no fluke.
Nyquist spanked Mohaymen quite soundly in the Florida Derby but the latter foe rebounded nicely to finish a good 4th , thereby, confirming that his success this Spring is likely to continue.
Here's the link to today's Index, and below are the coy and pasted guidelines found in the instruction tab.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xtu_iYi-PNdeTyQ9Ol9tpDCrUa3h-2X0ENZBccN0Kzw/edit#gid=1251139934
Today's tracks are Laurel, Santa Anita, Golden Gate, and Lonestar. Check back for changes.
I always recommend betting the optimized way, but I'm an every day bettor. I know it's hard to sit on your hands as 5/2 and 3/1's catch the win when they're ranked in the top slots. So for those type players I recommend betting the top two ranks to win regardless of odds. For those that can wait close to post time, but want to bet two of the top three I suggest using the Basic Betting approach.
Don't waste your money on Place and Show wagers. Put those funds on other horses where the Win odds have much better payouts. Anything can happen in a horse race so why be locked in on one horse? I always bet two horses to win when I decide to get involved in a race.
Basic win-betting guidelines:
How to bet: - I Always suggest wagering on two horses to win in each race
The first two to qualify from rank A to C at the suggested odds:
* Bet the A-B & C ranks at 5/2 to 19/1
* Use the D rank at 8/1 to 19/1
* If you "need" to wager on every race bet the two horses in the A-B & C Ranks that have the higher ROI odds
Optimized Odds betting guidelines:
The suggested BEST way to play the Optimized Odds is this: Bet the higher ROI odds regardless of rank. Rather than sticking to the pre-set odds parameters given in the Basic betting guidelines – consult the tables each race and bet the most optimized odds, by rank, ranks A through D. When ROI is similar (within 10%) – then prefer an A, B, or C rank as long as it's in the 6 to 19/1 range).
Exacta-betting guidelines: Two ways you can do it
Use the win-bet qualifier/s as your “on top” horse/s. The use the reaming horses left on my list as the underneath legs of the exacta. The second way is to use the next 4 lowest tote odd horses as your “underneath” horses. So – you will part-wheel each of the two win qualifiers to 4 others (including to each other) for a total of 8 exacta combinations occasionally 9 (if one of the horses is not in the low 5 odds).
also: These odds parameters are not “written in stone” – they can be allowed to float up or down a notch or two – particularly if it means getting another horse to make a two-horse wager.
* A, B, and C are always the first and primary choices unless their odds fall outside of the given parameters.
Example: “A” is at 5/1, “B” is at 7/5, “C” is at 9/1, – the wager is on “A,” and “C.”
Example 2:
A Rank #1 is 5/1
C Rank #2 is 9/2
#3 is 11/1
D Rank #4 is 9/1
B Rank #5 is 8/5
#6 is 7/2
#7 is 17/1
#8 is 20/1
Let’s say your A and C ranks are #1 and #2 above (B rank being #5 above, and too low to consider) - your exacta combinations would be; #1(A rank) to the; #2 (C rank) #4, #5, #6 and also; #2 (C rank) to the; #1, #4, #5, #6
Trifecta-betting guidelines:
Same as the exacta betting, only repeat the “underneath” horses from the exacta in the third slot as well for a 24-combination ticket. Example: (from exacta example 1 above) – ticket would be; 1, 2 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 If you want a slightly larger ticket with a greater chance of hitting the higher payoffs – then you could add in the next odds (5th lowest – would have been #3 in the example above) in the 3rd slot; 1, 2 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 32 combination ticket . . . or - 1, 2 to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 40 combination ticket.
Comments:
* I’ve tried to make the Basic Guidelines general – i.e. to be a best overall fit for the various kinds of players who want to play the game. Again – for those of you who are serious, and play regularly, you should wager the optimized (higher ROI) guidelines.
* Don’t get stuck on thinking too much of horses A, B, and C – as being “in order” – as ranked by preference. They are, but the odds offered should be your final decision maker.
* Stay within your limits. I don’t suggest that everyone make all the wagers (win, exacta, trifecta). There are usually $1.00 exactas available as well as $1.00, or even .50 cent trifecta wagers available. If your bankroll is light, don’t hesitate to use those (or skip the trifecta altogether).
* Odds changes are part of the game. Try to wait until the last possible moment to make your betting decisions and place your wager/s. The odds will still change after you have placed your wagers – even at times changing substantially after the horses are running. This is unavoidable, but it will go in your favor as often as it goes against you, so don’t fret it – just be as precise and disciplined as you can be.
When changing odds near post-time are causing some confusion/hesitancy in your final decision – in general, choose on the side of the higher odds.
When changing odds near post-time are causing hesitancy/confusion as to whether the odds will warrant wagering in the race, in general, choose on the side of making a wager – and with the above “higher odds” guideline in mind.
One thing that I mentioned several times (for “Basic” Index betting) – consider adjacent ranks as little different in preference while a horse two ranks away should not be preferred if qualifiers come before it (in light of the optimized odds parameters) . . .
Example: Rank A 9/2 / Rank B 7-1 / Rank C 6-1 / Rank D 16-1 / Rank E 11/1 . . . I wouldn’t prefer the C rank over the A rank because of being two ranks away. Bet would be A and B. On-the-other-hand:
Example: Rank A 9/2 / Rank B 4-1 / Rank C 6-1 / Rank D 16-1 / Rank E 11/1 – Here I would prefer the C rank over the B rank because ranks being adjacent and getting the better odds. Bet A and C.
Example: Rank A 9-5 / Rank B 5-2 / Rank C 19-1 / Rank D 6-1 / Rank E 11/1 – Here I would prefer ranks B and C
Example: Rank A 2-1 / Rank B 3-1 / Rank C 30-1 / Rank D 17/1 / Rank E 17/1 – Here I would prefer ranks B and D. The A & C fall out b/c the odds are too low and too high. Rank D & E are acceptable, but lets remember at least one wager should come from the top 3 ranks. So that would be the B horse, and both D & E are the same odds so we go with D since it's the higher ranked.
If you show patience, wait as close to post time, and not veer off course your ROI will thank you.
May The Winners Be Yours!
Doc
Final Thoughts on the Derby:
If you were disappointed with the payoffs in yesterday's Derby, join the club…not your typical 20-horse field payoffs by any means and none this low in over 30 years. However if you're a grinder like myself you just get up the next day and go back at it.
Last year’s 2 year-old champ, Nyquist, remains undefeated in 8 starts, putting on a performance, indeed, fit of a champion, holding off a late charging Exaggerator who has come close but has never defeated Nyquist in 4 previous starts. This sets up for an exciting and intriguing rematch in the Preakness Stakes in two weeks. My Index had three of the top four horses with Nyquest in as the B Rank.
Once again, California-based horses completed the Exacta as they did last year. Gun Runner ran a gutsy third prevailing over Mohaymen and the late charging Suddenbreaking news after chasing a pretty swift but unpressured pace that was :45+ and 1:10+ and validating that his success in Louisiana was no fluke.
Nyquist spanked Mohaymen quite soundly in the Florida Derby but the latter foe rebounded nicely to finish a good 4th , thereby, confirming that his success this Spring is likely to continue.
Here's the link to today's Index, and below are the coy and pasted guidelines found in the instruction tab.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xtu_iYi-PNdeTyQ9Ol9tpDCrUa3h-2X0ENZBccN0Kzw/edit#gid=1251139934
Today's tracks are Laurel, Santa Anita, Golden Gate, and Lonestar. Check back for changes.
I always recommend betting the optimized way, but I'm an every day bettor. I know it's hard to sit on your hands as 5/2 and 3/1's catch the win when they're ranked in the top slots. So for those type players I recommend betting the top two ranks to win regardless of odds. For those that can wait close to post time, but want to bet two of the top three I suggest using the Basic Betting approach.
Don't waste your money on Place and Show wagers. Put those funds on other horses where the Win odds have much better payouts. Anything can happen in a horse race so why be locked in on one horse? I always bet two horses to win when I decide to get involved in a race.
Basic win-betting guidelines:
How to bet: - I Always suggest wagering on two horses to win in each race
The first two to qualify from rank A to C at the suggested odds:
* Bet the A-B & C ranks at 5/2 to 19/1
* Use the D rank at 8/1 to 19/1
* If you "need" to wager on every race bet the two horses in the A-B & C Ranks that have the higher ROI odds
Optimized Odds betting guidelines:
The suggested BEST way to play the Optimized Odds is this: Bet the higher ROI odds regardless of rank. Rather than sticking to the pre-set odds parameters given in the Basic betting guidelines – consult the tables each race and bet the most optimized odds, by rank, ranks A through D. When ROI is similar (within 10%) – then prefer an A, B, or C rank as long as it's in the 6 to 19/1 range).
Exacta-betting guidelines: Two ways you can do it
Use the win-bet qualifier/s as your “on top” horse/s. The use the reaming horses left on my list as the underneath legs of the exacta. The second way is to use the next 4 lowest tote odd horses as your “underneath” horses. So – you will part-wheel each of the two win qualifiers to 4 others (including to each other) for a total of 8 exacta combinations occasionally 9 (if one of the horses is not in the low 5 odds).
also: These odds parameters are not “written in stone” – they can be allowed to float up or down a notch or two – particularly if it means getting another horse to make a two-horse wager.
* A, B, and C are always the first and primary choices unless their odds fall outside of the given parameters.
Example: “A” is at 5/1, “B” is at 7/5, “C” is at 9/1, – the wager is on “A,” and “C.”
Example 2:
A Rank #1 is 5/1
C Rank #2 is 9/2
#3 is 11/1
D Rank #4 is 9/1
B Rank #5 is 8/5
#6 is 7/2
#7 is 17/1
#8 is 20/1
Let’s say your A and C ranks are #1 and #2 above (B rank being #5 above, and too low to consider) - your exacta combinations would be; #1(A rank) to the; #2 (C rank) #4, #5, #6 and also; #2 (C rank) to the; #1, #4, #5, #6
Trifecta-betting guidelines:
Same as the exacta betting, only repeat the “underneath” horses from the exacta in the third slot as well for a 24-combination ticket. Example: (from exacta example 1 above) – ticket would be; 1, 2 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 If you want a slightly larger ticket with a greater chance of hitting the higher payoffs – then you could add in the next odds (5th lowest – would have been #3 in the example above) in the 3rd slot; 1, 2 to the 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 32 combination ticket . . . or - 1, 2 to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 40 combination ticket.
Comments:
* I’ve tried to make the Basic Guidelines general – i.e. to be a best overall fit for the various kinds of players who want to play the game. Again – for those of you who are serious, and play regularly, you should wager the optimized (higher ROI) guidelines.
* Don’t get stuck on thinking too much of horses A, B, and C – as being “in order” – as ranked by preference. They are, but the odds offered should be your final decision maker.
* Stay within your limits. I don’t suggest that everyone make all the wagers (win, exacta, trifecta). There are usually $1.00 exactas available as well as $1.00, or even .50 cent trifecta wagers available. If your bankroll is light, don’t hesitate to use those (or skip the trifecta altogether).
* Odds changes are part of the game. Try to wait until the last possible moment to make your betting decisions and place your wager/s. The odds will still change after you have placed your wagers – even at times changing substantially after the horses are running. This is unavoidable, but it will go in your favor as often as it goes against you, so don’t fret it – just be as precise and disciplined as you can be.
When changing odds near post-time are causing some confusion/hesitancy in your final decision – in general, choose on the side of the higher odds.
When changing odds near post-time are causing hesitancy/confusion as to whether the odds will warrant wagering in the race, in general, choose on the side of making a wager – and with the above “higher odds” guideline in mind.
One thing that I mentioned several times (for “Basic” Index betting) – consider adjacent ranks as little different in preference while a horse two ranks away should not be preferred if qualifiers come before it (in light of the optimized odds parameters) . . .
Example: Rank A 9/2 / Rank B 7-1 / Rank C 6-1 / Rank D 16-1 / Rank E 11/1 . . . I wouldn’t prefer the C rank over the A rank because of being two ranks away. Bet would be A and B. On-the-other-hand:
Example: Rank A 9/2 / Rank B 4-1 / Rank C 6-1 / Rank D 16-1 / Rank E 11/1 – Here I would prefer the C rank over the B rank because ranks being adjacent and getting the better odds. Bet A and C.
Example: Rank A 9-5 / Rank B 5-2 / Rank C 19-1 / Rank D 6-1 / Rank E 11/1 – Here I would prefer ranks B and C
Example: Rank A 2-1 / Rank B 3-1 / Rank C 30-1 / Rank D 17/1 / Rank E 17/1 – Here I would prefer ranks B and D. The A & C fall out b/c the odds are too low and too high. Rank D & E are acceptable, but lets remember at least one wager should come from the top 3 ranks. So that would be the B horse, and both D & E are the same odds so we go with D since it's the higher ranked.
If you show patience, wait as close to post time, and not veer off course your ROI will thank you.
May The Winners Be Yours!
Doc