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NFL SDQL week 7

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  • NFL SDQL week 7

    ON away fav 3+ off a bye (53-18 ATS = on Seattle)
    ON home 6+ fav before bye (85-34 ATS = on KC)
    ON team after scoring 36+ before bye and non-elite opponent (55-16 ATS = on LV)
    ON away fav or dog<3 after away fav nondiv loss (26-8 ATS = on GB)
    OPPOSE b2b 3+ pass TD vs opponent allowing 1+ pass td/game (23-59 ATS = platy on PIT, JAX, GB)
    ON away with Thu next, total>40 (25-5 ATS = on CAR)
    ON away off Monday dog win (29-10 ATS = on CHI)
    OPPOSE home off OT loss with <9 penalties (36-78 ATS = on GB)
    OPPOSE home nondiv off grass fav vs opponent with negative TO margin b2b (4-45 ATS = on PIT)
    OPPOSE 3+ fav with rest<7 b4 week 11, heavy turnovers team (6-38 ATS = on WAS)
    OPPOSE off win with 27+ points not in b2b away (28-65 ATS = on LV, on ARI)
    OPPOSE away fav off home dog (32-70 ATS = on NYJ)
    OPPOSE nondiv off OT away loss, opp not off blowout win (21-45 ATS = on GB, on JAX)
    ON win and b2b losses before that, average team (82-32 ATS = on SF)
    OPPOSE away nondiv with away monday coming, week 4+ (6-25 ATS = on LV)
    OPPOSE home dog off away dog loss and away loss before that, opponent great rush team (10-49 ATS = on CLE)
    OPPOSE home grass small fav or dog won <6 LY rushed for less yards than normal last game (19-55 ATS = on SEA)
    ON away losing team vs opponent off loss (158-97 ATS = on NYG, on jAX, on DAL)
    OPPOSE week 4+ teams not off bye that just allowed >7YPRA on >22 rushes (5-25 ATS = on GB, on WAS)
    OPPOSE home fav 4.5+ off loss that is <=.500 vs opponent <.500 and both teams turn it over >1.6x/game (5-22 ATS = on NYG)




    UNDER home dog or small fav off away fav vs opponent heavy 1st downs passing (59-132 o/u = LAR/CHI under)
    UNDER dog off fav or small dog blowout win, not in b2b home (40-104 o/u = ARI/SEA u)
    OVER off MNF loss, close line, opponent off win or 1 pt loss (51-18 o/u = DAL/WAS o)
    OVER dog with great YPP offense and good b2b offense (53-15 o/u = TEN/PIT o, GB/HOU o)
    UNDER off win and over training in 4th quarter not b2b away, conf game (29-72 o/u = NO/CAR under)
    UNDER off home blowout loss and opponent off a loss (21-56 o/u = JAX/LAC u, DAL/WAS u)
    UNDER grass off loss with 43+ more rush yards than YTD avg (5-35 o/u = PHI/NYG u)
    UNDER grass div off loss vs opponent not big scoring and just had 2+ turnovers (10-47 o/u = DAL/WAS u)
    OVER turf nondiv off home loss or narrow win, opponent good defense but bad YTD time of poss (100-21 o/u = SF/NE over)
    UNDER grass off home loss but made 5+ first downs in b2b games (6-21 o/u = DAL/WAS u)
    UNDER away off away fav making 3+ first downs, heavy passing team (9-35 o/u = GB/HOU u, KC/DEN u)
    UNDER home dog on grass off away fav, opp off 3+ sack game (7-35 o/u = ARI/SEA u)
    UNDER home big dog off away scoring <28, <7 rest, opponent <450 yards last game (9-48 o/u = NYJ/BUF u, DEN/KC u)
    UNDER off fav blowout loss with poor 1st down % (4-35 o/u = GB/HOU u)
    OVER pacific hosting eastern before week 11 not b4 or after bye (56-8 o/u = SF/NE o)
    OVER nondiv off dog or huge fav scoring more FG than TD, opponent good time of poss (46-6 o/u = CHI/LAR o)
    UNDER off div win either trailing or leading by <3 entering 4thQ, opponent scored 16+ last game (113-208 o/u = LV/TB u)
    OVER away won 11+ LY off home game, opponent off MNF (30-5 ATS = ARI/SEA o)
    OVER nondiv off win with 1+ rush TD, opponent allowed 400+ yards lw (117-47 o/u = PIT/TEN o, TB/LV o)
    UNDER away huge fav that won 7+ LY (7-31 o/u = BUF/NYJ u)
    UNDER off huge loss as fav, terrible first down %, and allowed 85+ rush yd (9-54 o/u = GB/HOU u)
    OVER game 5+ home fav or small dog, both terrible teams (19-4 o/u = PHI/NYG o, JAX/LAC o)
    UNDER won 5+ straight, opponent not on 6+ streak (55-99 o/u = ARI/SEA u)
    UNDER away won 11+ off away with more rush yards than penalty yards (6-38 o/u = GB/HOU u, KC/DEN u)
    UNDER away fav >8 with total 39+ and didn't throw for 430+ lw (6-46 o/u = BUF/NYJ u, KC/DEN u)
    Last edited by rolltide; 10-22-2020, 10:21 AM.

  • #2
    Re: NFL SDQL week 7

    Great read every week RT, thanks for posting it up

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NFL SDQL week 7

      Originally posted by Thomas View Post
      Great read every week RT, thanks for posting it up
      yes I second that
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NFL SDQL week 7

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: NFL SDQL week 7

          ON away fav 3+ off a bye (53-18 ATS = on Seattle)-----
          ON home 6+ fav before bye (85-34 ATS = on KC) -----

          ON team after scoring 36+ before bye and non-elite opponent (55-16 ATS = on LV)
          ON away fav or dog<3 after away fav nondiv loss (26-8 ATS = on GB) ----
          OPPOSE b2b 3+ pass TD vs opponent allowing 1+ pass td/game (23-59 ATS = platy on PIT, JAX, GB)
          ON away with Thu next, total>40 (25-5 ATS = on CAR) -----
          ON away off Monday dog win (29-10 ATS = on CHI)
          OPPOSE home off OT loss with <9 penalties (36-78 ATS = on GB)
          OPPOSE home nondiv off grass fav vs opponent with negative TO margin b2b (4-45 ATS = on PIT) -----
          OPPOSE 3+ fav with rest<7 b4 week 11, heavy turnovers team (6-38 ATS = on WAS)
          OPPOSE off win with 27+ points not in b2b away (28-65 ATS = on LV, on ARI)
          OPPOSE away fav off home dog (32-70 ATS = on NYJ)
          OPPOSE nondiv off OT away loss, opp not off blowout win (21-45 ATS = on GB, on JAX)
          ON win and b2b losses before that, average team (82-32 ATS = on SF) ----
          OPPOSE away nondiv with away monday coming, week 4+ (6-25 ATS = on LV) ----
          OPPOSE home dog off away dog loss and away loss before that, opponent great rush team (10-49 ATS = on CLE)
          OPPOSE home grass small fav or dog won <6 LY rushed for less yards than normal last game (19-55 ATS = on SEA)
          ON away losing team vs opponent off loss (158-97 ATS = on NYG, on jAX, on DAL)
          OPPOSE week 4+ teams not off bye that just allowed >7YPRA on >22 rushes (5-25 ATS = on GB, on WAS)
          OPPOSE home fav 4.5+ off loss that is <=.500 vs opponent <.500 and both teams turn it over >1.6x/game (5-22 ATS = on NYG)




          my 8 favorite rolltide sides



          sea -3
          kc -7
          gb -3
          car +6.5
          pitt +1
          sf +2.5
          lv +4.5
          cle -3 (post 6)
          Last edited by bleeker; 10-24-2020, 09:32 PM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: NFL SDQL week 7

            while this one I posted last week on Detroit doesn't have an exact match on the system if you pull back the yards per carry metric then Cincy falls into a big play against for 4-44-1 ATS ... means a play on Cleveland -3 if you wish

            Originally posted by rolltide View Post
            OPPOSE home dog heavy rush team but average YPR (0-43 SU / 2-40-1 ATS = on DET) note: avg loss 31-14, first one in 2020

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: NFL SDQL week 7

              Originally posted by rolltide View Post
              while this one I posted last week on Detroit doesn't have an exact match on the system if you pull back the yards per carry metric then Cincy falls into a big play against for 4-44-1 ATS ... means a play on Cleveland -3 if you wish


              added.. thanks rolltide
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: NFL SDQL week 7

                Good Info

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: NFL SDQL week 7

                  Like this one

                  ON away fav 3+ off a bye (53-18 ATS = on Seattle)-----

                  make it Away vs DIV and line between -3.5 - -7 --- 14-0 SU 13-1 ATS

                  season >= 2002 and A and DIV and tp:week+2=week and -3.5>=line>=-7.5

                  https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: NFL SDQL week 7

                    PLAY ON away or neutral teams before week 12, not dogs of 5.5+, either winless or >.250 that allow >403.5 yards per game but are strong in 3rd down % offense (85-17 ATS = on SEA, on DAL)


                    also 45-7 ATS if opponent is >=.500 (on SEA)
                    Last edited by rolltide; 10-25-2020, 12:08 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: NFL SDQL week 7

                      DAL/WAS fits a 1-32 o/u spot with Dallas decreasing passing yards in 3 straight and off a blowout loss in a game they weren't pick'em, grass surface and total <47

                      1-32-0 (-9.08, 3.0%) avg total: 42.8

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: NFL SDQL week 7

                        pretty wild that all but one of Westgate's current top 9 have Carolina today

                        of course it has a lot to do with the contest line being +7.5 while the vegas line is +6.5

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: NFL SDQL week 7

                          Great stuff roll tide. Appreciate ya !
                          Twitter @winningpix1
                          Last Season NFL 96-71-7 +$3750

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: NFL SDQL week 7

                            thx for the words, fellas...appreciated

                            I don't usually post these 7-0 SUATS type of deals but this one has the nuttiest margin of victory...

                            Since 2017 an away fav that won but didn't cover last meeting earlier this season when they were favored by 5.5+ at home is 7-0 SUATS as long as there aren't more than 14 weeks between meetings.

                            average margin of victory is 34-12 with average cover by more than 2 TD

                            7-0-0 (22.29, 100.0%)
                            7-0-0 (14.50, 100.0%) avg line: -7.8 play on CLE

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: NFL SDQL week 7

                              Originally posted by rolltide View Post
                              thx for the words, fellas...appreciated

                              I don't usually post these 7-0 SUATS type of deals but this one has the nuttiest margin of victory...

                              Since 2017 an away fav that won but didn't cover last meeting earlier this season when they were favored by 5.5+ at home is 7-0 SUATS as long as there aren't more than 14 weeks between meetings.

                              average margin of victory is 34-12 with average cover by more than 2 TD

                              7-0-0 (22.29, 100.0%)
                              7-0-0 (14.50, 100.0%) avg line: -7.8 play on CLE
                              Remember Cincy converted 5 4th downs to get the cover too that Thursday
                              Twitter @winningpix1
                              Last Season NFL 96-71-7 +$3750

                              Comment

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