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My NBA takeaways for Aug. 4th
YTD: 2-2 +1.42
Yesterday Aug. 3rd... 2-2 +1.42
UN 227.5 1.961 (-104) for IND\WAS.[1 unit] W
Spurs\Pacers UN 227.5 1.999 (-101).[1 unit] L
UN 236 2.00 (Even) in the Grizz\Pelicans [2.5 units] W
LAL/UTA UN 217 1.934 (-107).[1 unit] L
Today's tilts Aug. 4th...
Not as much self-perceived line value for me today; will just
and wait for more value on another day...
BKN\MIL UN 229 1.961 {-104} [1 unit]
DAL\SAC UN 236.5 1.934 {-107}.[1 unit]
HOU\POR UN 242 1.90 {-110}.[1 unit]
And playing something of a different approach using ALT lines. Lines that are given w/ decent return.
PHX +8.5 1.97 {-103}.{1/2 unit}
PHX +8 2.06 {+106}.{1/2 unit}
PHX +7 2.24 {+124}.{1/2 unit}
PHX +6.5 2.33 {133}.{1/2 unit}
You like a line but there's a heavier book 'bounty' price. ie. I like Phoenix today to cover ATS by 6 and want to play 2 units. The line offered to me at +9 is 1.892 {-112}. I'd have to lay/risk 2 x 1.892 {-112} or {$224.00} to play what I like.
So actually, because I feel they will only lose by 6 or < 6 points, I spread out my 2 units over 4 x 1/2 unit wagers (3 that are at + $$$) & (1 that costs me $1.50)
PHX +8.5 1.97 {-103}.{1/2 unit} = potential $$$ 48.50 {wagered $51.50}
PHX +8 2.06 {+106}.{1/2 unit} = potential $$$ 53.00 {wagered $50.00}
PHX +7 2.24 {+124}.{1/2 unit} = potential $$$ 64.00 {wagered $50.00}
PHX +6.5 2.33 {133}.{1/2 unit} = potential $$$ 66.50 {wagered $50.00}
If my theory comes in w/ all 4 plays (PHX loses by 6 or < 6)
Risk: $201.50 ~ Return $232.00 (+$201.50 wagered) TOTAL winnings $433.50
vs.
If I had played the whole amount at +9 1.892 {-112} for 2 units (PHX loses by 8 or < 8)
Risk: $224.00 ~ Return $200.00 (+224.00 wagered) TOTAL winnings $424.00
Now, about the other ifs involved...
IF PHX loses by 9, I push if I played the 2 unit wager = $224.00. Just a thought, pushes are OK in this racket.
IF PHX loses by 9, I lose the 4 plays = (-$201.50)
but
IF PHX loses by 8, I push the +8 2.06, I win the +8.5 = $48.50, but I lose the last 2 plays =(-100.00)
IF PHX loses by 7, I push the +7 2.24, I win the first 2 plays = $98.50, but I lose the last play +6.5 2.33 = (-$50.00)
I don't want to even mention how I'll feel if PHX craps the bed and loses by 9 or more.
Hope you understand my thinking process. Every dollar counts in this racket. I like risk but only when I feel it'll make me
YTD: 2-2 +1.42
Yesterday Aug. 3rd... 2-2 +1.42
UN 227.5 1.961 (-104) for IND\WAS.[1 unit] W
Spurs\Pacers UN 227.5 1.999 (-101).[1 unit] L
UN 236 2.00 (Even) in the Grizz\Pelicans [2.5 units] W
LAL/UTA UN 217 1.934 (-107).[1 unit] L
Today's tilts Aug. 4th...
Not as much self-perceived line value for me today; will just
and wait for more value on another day...BKN\MIL UN 229 1.961 {-104} [1 unit]
DAL\SAC UN 236.5 1.934 {-107}.[1 unit]
HOU\POR UN 242 1.90 {-110}.[1 unit]
And playing something of a different approach using ALT lines. Lines that are given w/ decent return.
PHX +8.5 1.97 {-103}.{1/2 unit}
PHX +8 2.06 {+106}.{1/2 unit}
PHX +7 2.24 {+124}.{1/2 unit}
PHX +6.5 2.33 {133}.{1/2 unit}
You like a line but there's a heavier book 'bounty' price. ie. I like Phoenix today to cover ATS by 6 and want to play 2 units. The line offered to me at +9 is 1.892 {-112}. I'd have to lay/risk 2 x 1.892 {-112} or {$224.00} to play what I like.
So actually, because I feel they will only lose by 6 or < 6 points, I spread out my 2 units over 4 x 1/2 unit wagers (3 that are at + $$$) & (1 that costs me $1.50)
PHX +8.5 1.97 {-103}.{1/2 unit} = potential $$$ 48.50 {wagered $51.50}
PHX +8 2.06 {+106}.{1/2 unit} = potential $$$ 53.00 {wagered $50.00}
PHX +7 2.24 {+124}.{1/2 unit} = potential $$$ 64.00 {wagered $50.00}
PHX +6.5 2.33 {133}.{1/2 unit} = potential $$$ 66.50 {wagered $50.00}
If my theory comes in w/ all 4 plays (PHX loses by 6 or < 6)
Risk: $201.50 ~ Return $232.00 (+$201.50 wagered) TOTAL winnings $433.50
vs.
If I had played the whole amount at +9 1.892 {-112} for 2 units (PHX loses by 8 or < 8)
Risk: $224.00 ~ Return $200.00 (+224.00 wagered) TOTAL winnings $424.00
Now, about the other ifs involved...
IF PHX loses by 9, I push if I played the 2 unit wager = $224.00. Just a thought, pushes are OK in this racket.
IF PHX loses by 9, I lose the 4 plays = (-$201.50)
but
IF PHX loses by 8, I push the +8 2.06, I win the +8.5 = $48.50, but I lose the last 2 plays =(-100.00)
IF PHX loses by 7, I push the +7 2.24, I win the first 2 plays = $98.50, but I lose the last play +6.5 2.33 = (-$50.00)
I don't want to even mention how I'll feel if PHX craps the bed and loses by 9 or more.
Hope you understand my thinking process. Every dollar counts in this racket. I like risk but only when I feel it'll make me
is easy. 
consistently 
is a different story
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