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  • week 19

    Well got bloodied up a bit WC weekend, got out by the skin of my ass on Saturday with the help of a parlay win only losing 20 bucks and change. Just the thought of needing a parlay to bail me out is all the info you need to know, what a shitty week I had. Sunday I went 1-3 (arghh) and I actually deserve it playing two overs after knowing the record for o/u this week in history. Stupid ! Not to dwell cause that's counter productive so looking at next week a wee bit tonight and Ran into this simple query while I was mining, in the last 5 years with a spread <=-9.5 the record is 5-0 suats o/u


    week = 19 and season >= 2011 and line <= -9.5 and season,1
    Last edited by Thomas; 01-05-2020, 10:43 PM.

  • #2
    Re: week 19

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    • #3
      Re: week 19

      Going to post some info here for whoever wants it...

      Teams that won less than 6 games the previous season (San Fran) are 1-14-1 ATS all time database in the playoffs as home favs. Even removing the very simple HF parameter you get 10-30-2 ATS. Teams that had a surprisingly good year after winning less than 6 games the year before DO NOT DO WELL in the playoffs in all situations. Home favs just cuts some fat away...
      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      I was worried about the Vikings coming off a short week (Sunday to Saturday game) and San Fran having the week off. Database says that is no advantage 6-6 ATS in the playoffs with that situation.
      Home favs on grass in the playoffs against a NON division opponent are 1-15 ATS if the opponent avgs less than 55% of their 1st downs thru the air (good running team). Fade fits both Baltimore and San Fran...
      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      Home favs in this round are 2-12 ATS off a season ending game with 3 minutes less time of possession that STD average. My own self-analysis of that, when a team has a lower TOP than their STD avg like that they either ran the ball less effectively than normal, or stopped the run less effectively. Either is not a good thing in my opinion. Apparently finishing the season with that type of game is not a good thing based on the 2-12 ATS record in their 1st playoffs game despite having a week off to prepare. Both Kansas City and San Fran fit this fade situation.
      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      Lots of people thinking Baltimore will go to the Super Bowl, myself included. That doesn't mean they will cover ATS this week though. Any team that runs the ball as well as Tennessee does is a tough out in the playoffs (read above query analysis). Throw this into the mix and they look like a great fade this week. Bettors see a "hot" team like Baltimore on a long winning streak and they back them. Teams on at least a 9 game winning streak are 0-10 ATS all-time database in the playoffs as more than 4 point favorites...
      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      Road dogs + at least 7 points are 16-3 ATS in the playoffs off a road win. Very simple straight forward which makes me love it even more. Both Minnesota and Tennessee fit this. Minnesota is right on the edge with a line that could drop below 7. This is also a solid UNDER situation (5-14 O/U).
      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      Make the above SDQL limited to just this week, giving the home team that all important?? extra rest and the road dogs +7 or more are 11-1 ATS since 2006...
      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      Playoffs dogs after the WC round on grass off B2B games they lost the turnover battle are 18-0 ATS since 2006. I like this turnover parameter, it means the team advanced in the playoffs the week before DESPITE LOSING the TO battle. They must be doing a lot of other things well to advance against a very negative stat.
      Tennessee fits this one as well...
      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      This one isn't playoffs specific, but points at teams on grass off home wins they trailed by 7 after the 1st quarter. (Houston) This only goes back to 2017, but coming off a come from behind win at home propelled these teams to a 16-1-2 ATS mark...
      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

      I'm not a big fan of team specific trends unless the same coach was around for most of the games involved. Kansas City is 0-11 ATS at home off a high scoring favorite win (had at least 50 points scored). This is also a solid UNDER with a 1-9-1 O/U. Andy Reid was the coach for 9 of the 11...
      https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
      "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

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      • #4
        Re: week 19

        I already liked the Titans +points.
        This information just helps it.

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        • #5
          Re: week 19

          Good Info !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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          • #6
            Re: week 19

            Road dogs + at least 7 points are 16-3 ATS in the playoffs off a road win. Very simple straight forward which makes me love it even more. Both Minnesota and Tennessee fit this. Minnesota is right on the edge with a line that could drop below 7. This is also a solid UNDER situation (5-14 O/U).

            The 3 losses came at the hands of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, explainable!

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            • #7
              Re: week 19

              i rewrote one of the ones above to push to 55.5% rush first downs, took out the "home" only designation, and made the home team no worse than 1 win less that opponent.

              https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

              1-21-1 (-8.15, 4.5%) avg line: -3.6 (PLAY ON Tenn +9.5, ON Minn +7)

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              • #8
                Re: week 19

                Andy Reid with 11+ days of rest and not favored by 2+ TD, opponent not on short rest

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                • #9
                  Re: week 19

                  Real good info guys, makes this more interesting with opinions and research like this. Thanks always appreciated.


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                  • #10
                    Re: week 19

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                    • #11
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                      • #12
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                        • #13
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                          • #14
                            Re: week 19

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                            • #15
                              Re: week 19

                              11+ win home playoff team with small YTD margin of victory playing a team within a few wins of them

                              https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                              0-10-1 (-6.00, 0.0%) avg line: -5.5 (against GB, play on Seattle +4.5)

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