Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Wildcard trends

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Wildcard trends

    Copied from another forum, I checked a few out at the mine and they're close to what they say for the most part but largely not vetted by me. May even be from one of the rags not sure but something to look at to get some ideas if nothing else:


    GENERAL WILD-CARD PLAYOFF ATS TRENDS
    • The outright winner owns a point-spread record of 40-5-1 ATS in the last 46 wild-card playoff games.
    However, games in four of the last fve seasons have produced the only ATS losses in that stretch,
    including a year ago when Dallas (-3) failed to cover the number in a 24-22 win over Seattle. Those
    win/no covers are still rare, so regardless of the point spread, if you can’t see the team you’re betting
    on winning the game, my advice is not to do it.
    • Road teams seem to have regained the edge in this round in recent years, going 13-11 SU and 15-8-1
    ATS in the last 24 wild-card games, including eight ATS in a row heading into the 2020 games.
    • Underdogs are on a run of 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 NFC wild-card games.
    • In each of the last two years, road teams swept the action 4-0 ATS. Although all those teams were
    underdogs, wild-card road favorites have become increasingly common, with 13 in the last 11
    seasons. Those teams are 8-5 SU and 6-6-1 ATS. For 2020, Seattle was a road favorite at press
    time.

    • Home favorites of a TD or more in the wild-card round are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS since 2005.
    • There has been a defnitive separation in success levels of the home teams in the Saturday and
    Sunday games. In the last 24 Saturday games, home teams are 16-10 SU and 15-10-1 ATS. In that
    same span, home teams are 13-13 SU and 10-15-1 ATS on Sundays.
    • Sunday road NFC teams have been terrifc, going 10-7 SU and 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17. Under the
    total is 12-5 in those games. Both NFC games are on Sunday this weekend.
    • In the 12 wild-card matchups between divisional opponents since 2003, road teams own a 9-3 ATS
    edge (6-6 SU). None of the four games for 2020 is a divisional matchup.
    WILD-CARD TRENDS BY SEED NUMBER
    • No. 4 seeds are on a 16-10 SU and 15-9-2 ATS run over the last 13 wild-card seasons.
    • Of the 14 No. 3-vs. No. 6 wild-card matchups over the last seven seasons, Under the total is 13-0-1.
    The 3-6 matchups for 2020 are New England-Tennessee and New Orleans-Minnesota.

    • No. 3 seeds that were underdogs or less than 3-point favorites have lost nine straight games outright
    while going 1-8 ATS, scoring just 12.7 PPG. New England was a 4-point favorite at press time, but the
    line seems to be dumping fast, so follow it closely.
    WILD-CARD TRENDS REGARDING TOTALS
    • Under has dominated over the last seven years, 20-7-1 heading into 2020.
    • The common pattern in the last nine years has shown that when road teams have won outright, Under
    the total has a record of 17-3-2. Home teams scored just 14.5 PPG in those games.
    • Of the last 22 wild-card games with totals of 44 or higher, Under the total is 16-5-1. Those with totals
    less than 44 are 7-7 Over in the last 14. Furthermore, fve straight games with closing totals below 40
    went Over the total.
    • Of the last 26 Sunday wild-card games, 19 have gone Under the total. Of the last 24 Saturday
    games, Over the total is 12-11-1.
    • In games expected to be tight, with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, Under the total is on a
    run of 15-7-1.
    FOLLOW THE LINE MOVES
    Sharp bettors have been right on sides at a rate of 25-12 SU and 24-12-1 in the last 37 wild-card playoff
    games that moved off their opening number, good for 66.7% ATS. This is determined to be when the
    line moves off its opening position toward either team. For instance, if the line opens as home team
    minus-3 and closes at home team minus-2, it is assumed that sharp bettors are favoring the road team.
    For 2020, early action was favoring Buffalo, Tennessee, Seattle and New Orleans.
    Nearly equally advantageous, sharp bettors have fared well on totals in wild-card games. Over
    the last 11 wild-card playoff seasons, bettors are 23-13 (63.9%) when totals move off their opening
    numbers.
    Clearly, it is worthwhile to follow the line moves in the days leading up to kickoff. For 2020, the first
    three totals climbed upward early, while the Seattle-Philadelphia game hadn’t moved.
    STATS GENERATED IN WILD-CARD PLAYOFF GAMES
    • Only two home teams that have topped the 20-point mark have lost in the last 18 years of wild-card
    playoff action, going 37-2 SU and 30-8-1 ATS. Incidentally, those teams were 2008 Pittsburgh and
    2018 Kansas City.
    • Only three home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a wild-card playoff game have won in the
    last 16 years, going 3-29 SU and 3-28-1 ATS. Those winners were San Diego, which beat Tennessee
    17-6 in ’08; Houston, a 19-13 winner over Cincinnati in 2013; and Jacksonville, which held off Buffalo
    10-3 in 2018.
    • The magic point total for road teams is 17 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the wild-card round
    are 2-23 SU and ATS since ’02. Seattle of ’16 and Philadelphia a year ago were the lone outright
    winners. Road teams reaching that total were 35-10-2 ATS in that same span.
    • Teams that gain more frst downs are 27-8-1 ATS in the last nine wild-card playoff seasons.
    • Teams that win the time-of-possession battle are on a 39-17 SU and 38-16-2 ATS run in the wild-card
    playoffs.
    • Wild-card playoff teams that gain more rushing yards in their playoff games are 34-10 SU and 31-
    11-2 ATS over the last 11 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a
    wild-card playoff game are just 26-18 SU and 24-19-1 ATS in that span.
    • Putting up big passing numbers in wild-card playoff games has not been as big a part of a recipe for
    success the last eight wild-card seasons, since those teams are 21-11 SU and 21-10-1 ATS in that time.
    Teams have tended to put up big passing numbers in catch-up mode.
    • Alternatively, teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays are far more
    successful in the long term. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a wild-card playoff
    game are 44-14-2 ATS since ’04.
    • Teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponents haven’t been as successful as you might think
    in the wild-card playoffs but are 24-10 SU and 23-10-1 ATS over the last 12 seasons. In 14 of the
    games during that span, the turnover differential was even.
    TEAMS’ REGULAR-SEASON WON-LOST RECORD TREND
    • If the last 11 wild-card playoff seasons have proven anything, it’s that regular-season records do not
    matter one iota when it comes to determining who will win. In fact, teams that won more regular season games are just 17-21 SU and 15-22-1 ATS in that span. In six matchups, the teams shared the same won-lost mark. With divisional winners hosting wild-card teams in this round, it is often road
    teams sporting the better mark. The Seahawks are the only road team to have a better record than
    the host team in 2020.
    • Home teams that won fewer games during the season than their wild-card opponent are on a 10-6 SU
    and ATS run. However, Baltimore lost to the Chargers a year ago. Philadelphia owns a worse record
    than Seattle for 2020.
    • Home teams that won nine or fewer games during the regular season are on a 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS
    run in the wild-card playoffs. Strangely, at the same time, hosts that won 12 or more games have a
    worse record at 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS in their last 12 tries. Philadelphia (9-7) and New Orleans (13-3)
    will test those trends.
    • Road wild-card teams that won 11 or more games and are just 8-13 SU and 9-11-1 ATS since ’08.
    Alternatively, wild-card visitors that won nine or fewer games in the regular season boast a record of
    9-9 SU and 12-5-1 ATS since ’02. Seattle (11-5) and Tennessee (9-7) will test those records.
    TEAMS’ REGULAR-SEASON OFFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS
    • Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season have won just 19 wild-card playoff
    games in the last 10 years, going 19-21 SU and 16-23-1 ATS.
    • Rushing statistics have meant little to nothing when it comes to wild-card playoff success lately.
    Teams that averaged more rushing yards per game are just 21-23 SU and 19-24-1 ATS since ’09.
    Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were just 22-21 SU and 20-22-1 ATS in that
    span. The Rams and Falcons averaged the exact same yards per rush heading their 2018 wild-card
    matchup.
    • Wild-card teams with an edge in offensive passing yardage are slightly better at 26-18 SU and 23-
    20-1 ATS over the last 11 seasons in this playoff round. Teams with more effcient passing yards per
    attempt are 23-21 SU and 22-21-1 ATS in that span but have gotten hot of late, going 22-12 SU and
    19-14-1 ATS in the last 34 wild-card games.
    • Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively and more yards per play in the regular
    season own only a slight edge when it comes to wild-card playoff success, going 25-19 SU and 22-21-
    1 ATS over the last 11 seasons.
    • Offensive yards per point has proven to be as effective a statistical indicator as any other category,
    as teams that have averaged fewer yards per point offensively are only 33-21 SU and 32-22 ATS in
    the wild-card playoffs dating back to ‘06. The teams with edges in 2020 are Houston, New England,
    New Orleans and Seattle.
    • Teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponents are 22-19 SU
    and 22-18-1 ATS since ’08 in wild-card playoff games.
    • Teams that converted third-down opportunities more effciently in the regular season are just 20-22 SU
    and 19-22-1 ATS in the last 10 wild-card playoff seasons.
    TEAMS’ REGULAR-SEASON DEFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS
    • Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are on a 25-16 SU and 22-18-1
    ATS run in wild-card playoff action, but they lost all four games ATS a year ago.
    • Rushing defense had also been an effective indicator in winning wild-card playoff games before last
    year (0-4 ATS). Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per game are 25-19 SU and 23-20-1 ATS since
    ’08. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush were a bit better at the betting window at 24-19 SU and
    25-17-1 ATS.
    • Wild-card teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are just 25-19 SU and 21-22-1
    ATS over the last 11 seasons in this playoff round. Defensive pass effciency is a curious statistic in
    that teams that have held the edge in this category are 23-19 SU and 19-22-1 ATS over the last 11
    seasons. Usually this statistic is more important.
    • Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively have been quite successful, going 29-
    15 SU and 27-16-1 ATS in the wild-card round since ‘08. Those that held an edge in yards
    allowed per play were several games worse at 25-19 SU and 21-22-1 ATS. The teams that
    gave up fewer yards this season for this weekend are Buffalo, New England, New Orleans and
    Philadelphia.
    • Wild-card teams that made opposing offenses work harder, or those that allowed more offensive
    yards per point, have won their wild-card playoff games at a 22-22 SU and 22-21-1 ATS rate over the
    last 11 seasons.
    • Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a 24-16 SU and
    22-17-1 ATS run since ’08 in wild-card playoff games.
    • Teams that stopped third-down opportunities more effciently in the regular season were 24-20 SU and
    24-19-1 ATS in the last 44 wild-card playoff games.

    PLAYOFF DROUGHT SYSTEMS
    A few different systems are worth considering based on recentness in which teams have been in the
    playoffs. Take a look.
    • Teams playing in their frst playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team are just
    5-14 SU and ATS over the last seven seasons and 16-35-1 ATS since ’04. The teams for this year that
    weren’t in the playoffs last year are Buffalo, Tennessee, Minnesota, Green Bay and San Francisco.
    Interestingly, the last two are the top seeds in the NFC.
    • On the road, these “drought” teams are an ugly 2-16 SU and 2-15-1 ATS since ’07, all wild-card
    games. At home the teams are 13-12 SU and 12-13 ATS. For 2020, the AFC teams are both on the
    road, as is Minnesota in the wild-card round, while the top two NFC teams are at home next weekend.

  • #2
    Re: Wildcard trends

    Comment

    Working...
    X