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  • #1

    week 15

    Here's some things to chew on from the database posted by Bugsy at my home forum, another great researcher I might add. Be sure to look at the 100% link, nice find for sure


    https://tinyurl.com/qwh8njp
    Oak Under 90%

    https://tinyurl.com/rwuda5y
    Philly Under 75%

    https://tinyurl.com/vhsty2a
    NE Under 81%

    https://tinyurl.com/s6yy9sd
    Jags 66%

    https://tinyurl.com/vzktmzc
    Mia 68%

    https://tinyurl.com/tucdt5x
    Jags 100% ATS and SU
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: week 15

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    • #3
      Re: week 15

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      • #4
        Re: week 15

        great stuff thomas.. the last one a little beyond my understanding (parts)... dpa and dps.. I know it's delta point average and scored.. scored means how many points +/- in the game based on line and total.. average is a running average throughout the season of this.. something like that ??


        also I did a hockey query (posted nhl forum) and want it to show all games in the database.. i'm doing something wrong with "show_games" that I can't figure out.. appreciate if you could assist me
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

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        • #5
          Re: week 15

          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
          great stuff thomas.. the last one a little beyond my understanding (parts)... dpa and dps.. I know it's delta point average and scored.. scored means how many points +/- in the game based on line and total.. average is a running average throughout the season of this.. something like that ??


          also I did a hockey query (posted nhl forum) and want it to show all games in the database.. i'm doing something wrong with "show_games" that I can't figure out.. appreciate if you could assist me
          dpa is points allowed not averaged
          "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

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          • #6
            Re: week 15

            The big home dogs go under I have posted in my analysis here several times. I have always removed week 17 cause the last week on the NFL is a totally different animal...

            https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

            Also the Patriots are 0-11-1 O/U off their last 12 losses.
            "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

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            • #7
              Re: week 15

              Originally posted by jumperjack View Post
              dpa is points allowed not averaged

              oh ok.. so scored and allowed.. got it
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: week 15

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                • #9
                  Re: week 15

                  dps - This stands for Delta Points Scored. It is the difference between the points the team was expected to score and the number of points they actually scored. For example, a team that is favored by 6 points in a game that has an OU line of 190, is expected to win by a margin of 98-92. That is, they are expected score 98 points and to allow 92 points. If they win by a margin of 103-102, their dps is plus 5 points. This means that they scored 5 points more than expected.

                  Sample Query: dps>=10

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                  • #10
                    Re: week 15

                    Originally posted by Thomas View Post
                    dps - This stands for Delta Points Scored. It is the difference between the points the team was expected to score and the number of points they actually scored. For example, a team that is favored by 6 points in a game that has an OU line of 190, is expected to win by a margin of 98-92. That is, they are expected score 98 points and to allow 92 points. If they win by a margin of 103-102, their dps is plus 5 points. This means that they scored 5 points more than expected.

                    Sample Query: dps>=10
                    thanks thomas
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: week 15

                      I was really liking the Jags this week especially the query stuff above but after some talk and thinking I'm giving this some 2nd thought. First off big emotional game today in Oakland I wold guess but that's all I can give at this point not much to go on really. Next thing is Oakland and the Jags are 31st and 32nd in dpp/100 and opp/100 of late (4 gm avg) which simply means both these teams suck and I gotta believe that 6.5 is a lot of points given the stats, I'd go so far as to say it's wrong. But who wants to have money on Jacksonville who have been relentlessly beat in those 4 games su and ats and offer little in the way of confidence. The Raiders on the other hand have been in much the same situation the last 3 after beating the Bengals but failing to cover that big -10 spread (also ridiculous). So who the hell knows after that info.

                      Maybe of interest to some is the last time the Raiders left Oakland, in 1981,their last home game was a blowout as they got drilled by the Bears 23-6 and never scored a point in the last 3 qtrs at the coliseum. Don't know the spread from that game but both teams were similar to today's teams with the Raiders 7-8 and the Bears 5-10 and both out of the playoff picture. Don't look like they gave much of a shit the last time they moved

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                      • #12
                        Re: week 15

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                        • #13
                          Re: week 15




                          Should have stuck to my guns with that juicy trend on Jacksonville, damn.
                          Last edited by Thomas; 12-15-2019, 06:42 PM.

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                          • #14
                            Re: week 15

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                            • #15
                              Re: week 15

                              The chase is on ! Shitkickin coming I hope

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