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Thread: Early Season CBB Totals

  1. #1

    info1 Early Season CBB Totals

    The first few weeks may be a boon to UNDER players...the 3 point lines are moved back more than a foot and shooting % will be significantly lower on 3's. Until the bettors catch on I would be very selective when playing any college game over. This is the kind of thing that could take weeks to level off because regular "square" players are more inclined to play OVERS and the books might not see any reason to adjust the totals if they are making a killing on them. The bettors will need to react for this to change, not the books. First 2 day's results 35-53 O/U on Tuesday and 8-16-2 O/U last night, for a combined 43-69-2 O/U (61.6% UNDERS) after 2 days. That is not a fluke or coincidence, trust me.

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  2. #2

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    Great stuff..any insight to playing big total moves ? I.E. Air Force total went down 6 points today. Under ?

     
     
  3. #3

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    Quote Originally Posted by Winningpix View Post
    Great stuff..any insight to playing big total moves ? I.E. Air Force total went down 6 points today. Under ?
    My advice would be to bet early if you like an under, avoid big movers, you will be betting on bad numbers.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  4. #4

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    I would also recommend that these unders will be higher % winners on higher totals. Team that play with higher totals play at a faster pace=jack up more shots and the lower shooting % will bear its fruit on games that have more possessions. I did additional work on the link I posted before and added in a over 139 total parameter and got it to 28-55-1 O/U (66.3% UNDERS)

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  5. #5

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    7 games tonight had totals of 139 or higher, I took a shot and plopped down $100 on each under. Of the 4 early starts, 3 cashed, and all 3 stayed under their totals by double digits.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  6. #6

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    Seattle@Washington stays under by a half pt., 1st day playing these 5 of 7 stay under. Whole slew of games tomorrow, going to play the ones with totals 139 or more for $50 each under. Have a lot of money tied up with my weekend football plays or I'd play them all for 100 too.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  7. #7

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    Quote Originally Posted by jumperjack View Post
    Seattle@Washington stays under by a half pt., 1st day playing these 5 of 7 stay under. Whole slew of games tomorrow, going to play the ones with totals 139 or more for $50 each under. Have a lot of money tied up with my weekend football plays or I'd play them all for 100 too.
    Thanks for sharing

     
     
  8. #8

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    Way too many games for me to cover tomorrow, going to play only the ones with totals 150 or more. Before tonight the ones with totals of 139 or more were 30-62-1 O/U (67.4% UNDERS) and the games with totals of 150 or more were 12-26-1 O/U (68.4% UNDERS). That limits the amount of plays for Saturday to just 8. In the early games tonight the games with totals of 150 or more were 1-5 O/U. That certainly suggests my theory that the higher totals probably are even better because of the amount of possessions being higher holds water. Going to play those 8 Saturday for $100 each again. Will post tonight's results when the games are all finished.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  9. #9

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    The 10 games with totals of 150 or more are all done. 7 of those 10 stayed UNDER. For the season so far those are now 15-33 O/U (68.75% UNDERS). An incredibly large pct. of these games the total is going down significantly from the opener, at least half the board the totals are moving 5 points or more lower.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  10. #10

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    tremendous discovery..I found one additional subset that seems to be producing lopsided results although it is a small sample..neutral site


    0-5 o/u (-16.30)


    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/quer...output=summary
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do mess up every now and then
    ** horses I feel cost a lot fo their pedigree

     
     
  11. #11

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    Final tally for the day on the games with totals of 139 or more...13-22 O/U. $50 a pop I netted a little under $400. Almost $700 profit after 2 days.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  12. #12

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    Not so much a discovery as a theory I had before the games even started. I figured there would definitely be lower shooting % from 3 with the line moved. I just waited to see a few days of games play out before I acted. Every team in CBB shoots a lot of 3's these days so it should be pretty much market-wide. I also think the larger total games will be the better options moving forward because there are more possessions in those games. I am definitely not the only person honing in on the early results, like I said tons of games are having big line moves. I also did notice the neutral sites, 3 of 4 tonight that had totals of 139 or more cashed on neutral courts. The link fails to show the Arz. St/Colorado game as a neutral site game and that went over. It's a shame there are so many games to cover cause I definitely feel like this will work for a couple weeks as long as you bet close to the opening numbers. Most of the lines are staying fairly stable till the morning of the games.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  13. #13

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    As a point of reference, I am going to post the lines I got last night, in case someone doesn't have a line tracker to compare to. If you are late to the party and the line has moved, maybe lay off.

    Iona/Louisville 153
    E Tenn St./Tenn Martin 151
    Northridge/New Mexico 163
    C. Arkansas/Georgetown 155
    NC Asheville/Citadel 154
    Gardner Webb/W. Carolina 151.5
    C. Conn/St. John's 150
    McNeese St/UL Lafayette 150.5
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     
  14. #14

    Re: Early Season CBB Totals

    3-5 on the totals for me today gonna lay low and see if there is a little adjustment happening.
    "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

     
     

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